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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 629

jkmill550 | Posted 11/12/2008 6:28:49 AM | message detail
Also, I think Tifa beats Auron. Not sure about Squall though. While her role in FFVII was nothing special, she has definitely been given more exposure post-FFVII and in Advent Children she easily has the second largest protagonist role--bigger than even Vincent.
H__RR____H | Posted 11/12/2008 6:29:41 AM | message detail
Some of you are wondering why Leon's so close to Master Chief here. I decided to adjust him based on Dante from last round. There may be no reason for doing so, but Leon did drop 5% from his 2nd round performance on Dante. The raw stats use this 3rd round Leon, so you can see the stats based off of that.

I understood Leon yesterday performed more like Leon in R3 last year, which also had Dante and a solid Nintendo character. I'm inclined to say yesterday's performance is the best one to go by because of that...but he's had, what, three million-sellers on Nintendo systems? Maybe it's actually the Nintendo characters throwing him off a little...in which case, his R2 match this year would be the best to go by like you did. Just...man, what a mess.


Also, with Big Boss...I know he messes with the stats, but he nearly had 50% of the poll with Kirby, Lucas, and a joke-character; he beat Kirby by 11+%. His R2 match had an obvious detractor in Raiden, too, not to mention MC being a bad-ass in the match as well making Kirby stand out a lot. I know Big Boss got to stand out a lot in R1 too, but he still nearly got 50% on the poll and beat Kirby much worse than what Kirby did to him with an even better advantage the next round (thanks Raiden).

The man deserves to be at the top of the division.
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BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now.
www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285
Kullstrom | Posted 11/12/2008 6:31:47 AM | message detail
I'd probably take Tifa over Auron, and think about her over Vincent as well. I've always felt she's never got a fair run at this contest with being through the wacky female bracket and SFF fests this year. The only solid read we have into her is that she roughly the same amount on Sonic as Vincent did on Crono in 2005. Both have probably boosted since then with AC and KHII but I'd still maintain that Tifa is as big a noble nine breaker as anyone.
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H__RR____H | Posted 11/12/2008 6:56:31 AM | message detail
I've mentioned this before, but I love how Auron/Sora/Squall/Tifa should interact in such a match. Sora's the most removed and leads three games yet arguably the weakest, each of the other three have varying roles in the KH series and star in various FF games, we've got two leads along with a fan-favorite and Square's most successful woman, all that...

...that said, now that they're eliminated this year, the only person I know I like right now is Tifa. She was able to successfully stand up to Sephiroth twice this year so fans of FF7 won't easily leave her behind, she's notably stronger than Aeris so she wouldn't be blown out by Squall/Sora like Aeris last year, and she's going to stand out as both a hot woman and not being a leading bad-ass. With her role in KH2 and FF7's Cloud/Seph being big reasons for KH's original success, I don't expect Sora to mess with her too much. Squall and Auron are going to fight more among FF-bad-ass fans as well; it doesn't hurt that FFX came a generation later and Squall came from what was once a disappointing sequel to FF7 to many fans (not that Tifa hurts Squall; we saw two days ago Cloud didn't bother Squall much/any more than Sora), so she shouldn't be badly affected. It doesn't hurt FF7 is still the foundation of GameFAQs until further notice. I don't know if I like her to win it, but she's who I trust the most to advance in one of the two positions...so, for now, I guess first place works...

...then for second place, my instincts tell me Sora (or maybe Auron) and my logic says Squall (or maybe Auron). What a match-up...give me Auron since I feel him a bit on both grounds.


Tifa > Auron...if nothing else, it's not too bad to go with Square's two biggest games represented. Literally anything can happen here though.
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BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now.
www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285
charmander6000 | Posted 11/12/2008 7:32:33 AM | message detail
So much for the legendary Sonic morning vote.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 247/368 Today's Match: Sephiroth > Sonic
Kullstrom | Posted 11/12/2008 7:56:32 AM | message detail
Sonic has had bizarre trends this year. I mean beating Sephiroth with the night vote and then losing the morning vote to him? What the hell is that all about? Then in Round 1 where he mimiced Cloud's trends of increasing all day after an awful board vote and today did so well with the board vote he was actually beating Sephiroth. It's all over the place.

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hellfire104 | Posted 11/12/2008 8:01:53 AM | message detail
Couldn't help but notice that 27 of the top 40 guru's have Link > Mario.
Granted, thats not even 70%, so this match is a toss up.

I don't imagine that in terms of SFF against mario; Link > Zelda + Mudkip OR Link > Luigi.
I also think X get's some SFF here for THE FIRST TIME YET, against mario.

Anybody want to discuss?

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Point Total/Rank: 285/366, 78%, T7th
My Bracket Says: Sephy > Sonic Prediction: Sephy > Sonic
charmander6000 | Posted 11/12/2008 8:09:50 AM | message detail
I feel really funny about that match and even though I have Link > Mario I would have to give X as being the favourite. The only thing I know is that Zack will get last.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 247/368 Today's Match: Sephiroth > Sonic
earth angel | Posted 11/12/2008 8:36:07 AM | message detail
The thing that scares me about X is how MM underperformed in his last round. Granted it was against a joke character, which probably factored into it quite a bit, but it still has me worried.

My bracket is basically riding on X and Crono from here on out.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/12/2008 9:00:20 AM | message detail
I understand what you're saying about Tifa, but she still lost to Kratos, and it doesn't look like Auron will.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2008 9:02:59 AM | message detail
Sephiroth is beating Auron more badly now than he did in 2004. I certainly didn't expect this, especially after Kingdom Hearts II and watching Squall do better against Cloud a few days ago.
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hailEC | Posted 11/12/2008 9:03:45 AM | message detail
seph > link lets do this

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RPGuy96 | Posted 11/12/2008 9:06:45 AM | message detail
Yeah, I'd sooner compare against Kratos than I would against Sephiroth. Remember that Sephiroth more than tripled Vincent last year.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 11/12/2008 9:09:14 AM | message detail
I like this. Even the people who cheated for Auron last round could not survive the wonders of SFF. XD at their monumental failure - Sonic all the way.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 9:12:51 AM | message detail

From: XIII_rocks | #114
I like this. Even the people who cheated for Auron last round could not survive the wonders of SFF. XD at their monumental failure - Sonic all the way.



People still think Auron cheated?
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The Mana Sword | Posted 11/12/2008 9:13:24 AM | message detail
No, "people" do not think that.
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dbkit | Posted 11/12/2008 9:16:41 AM | message detail
I voted for Sonic but thats all I can say about that. For anybody besides Cloud, beating Sephiroth is a daunting-impossible task.

Arg I don't get why people like that Sephiroth anyway. FF7 is eons old and in my opinion much better games have come along since then.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/12/2008 9:19:17 AM | message detail
Squall barely did better against Cloud, and I think the level of competition has a lot to do with how badly Auron is doing. After all, Kratos is doing much worse this time himself. Plus, Squall might have been SFFing Sora a bit, too.
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Temporarily Sidetracked
The Mana Sword | Posted 11/12/2008 9:20:38 AM | message detail
I dunno if you can really say Squall was SFFing Sora with how close Sora came to winning that.
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dbkit | Posted 11/12/2008 9:28:47 AM | message detail
Someone explain to me what SFF means O.o
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TRE Public Account | Posted 11/12/2008 9:33:19 AM | message detail
SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.
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LEMONed_iScream | Posted 11/12/2008 9:36:06 AM | message detail
Yeah, that's like on the first page, dbkit (as well as the post after yours!).
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Ngamer64 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:22:54 AM | message detail
drillbitkit, you should make use of the wiki when you have questions like that.

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/SFF
and
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/LFF


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HaRRicH | Posted 11/12/2008 10:32:26 AM | message detail
Speaking of LFF and the first post, I would think it may be a good idea to add LFF to the list of definitions. If necessary, I would be cool seeing it replace X-Stats or rSFF...LFF has become more common in four-ways anyway, and it doesn't look like that's changing anytime soon.
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:38:42 AM | message detail
Maybe im looking into it too soon, but looking at the next match it seems like 1 surefirst 1st placer and the real battle being for 2nd.

Link i'm sure will get 1st. Mario and X however can prove to be a little battle although it'll likely be in Mario's favor.

This is likely where Zack is gonna fall down and hard. People said he's looking good mainly since the only competition he had in his division was Link, so he could consistently cruise in 2nd.

I suspect It will be Link>Mario for the upcoming match but X might try to do something about that.

What are your predictions and picks?
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transience | Posted 11/12/2008 10:46:24 AM | message detail
Auron's doing better than Tifa was. you can argue that he shares less overlap and therefore it's debatable, but there's no doubt that Auron's doing better comparatively. he's at a lower percentage because there's more competition. replace Jill Valentine with Sonic and that's what you get.

tomorrow's match, I'm still up in the air. I've got a lot of thoughts on how Link affects both X and Mario.
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Megaman703 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:48:19 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Megaman703 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:48:44 AM | message detail
uh, regarding LFF (as stupid as I think that term is) shouldn't it be "Leech", not "Leach"?
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XxSoulxX | Posted 11/12/2008 10:56:31 AM | message detail
Tifa's exposure THROUGHOUT KH2 > Auron's presence in the first or second level of the game.

No. I calculated it. Tifa is seen for about 15 seconds in the entire game (she punches a wall, then has a small cutscene in the thousand heartless fight). Auron joins your party.

Like I argued last year, Tifa gained absolutely nothing from KH2. Her fans seeing her in another game won't do it. People who didn't know her beforehand won't vote for "random character walking around with big boobs".
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Ngamer64 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:56:48 AM | message detail
Either works.

leach - to purge a soluble matter out of something by the action of a percolating fluid
heavy rainfall can leach out minerals important for plant growth from the soil

leech - an aquatic blood-sucking annelid of class Hirudinea, especially Hirudo medicinalis
bert leeched hundreds of files from the BBS, but never uploaded anything in return

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2008 10:57:45 AM | message detail
I don't see X as a very realistic threat. If Mario can beat him comfortably with Luigi in the poll, then it leads me to think Mario can beat him in almost any situation. There are other factors which spell trouble for X, such as everything Link and the Zelda series have done against Mega Man opponents, and Samus's performances against Mega Man last year. I think Zack is a bigger threat. He's scored an impressive 30% on Link twice, but that was against weak competition. If he can hold his own here and let Link go to town with SFF, I see him coming out ahead. However, he doesn't have nearly the "stand out" factor that Mewtwo did (or even Sonic does now). Yes, he's Final Fantasy in a sea of Nintendo, but he's also a cool sword wielder in a poll with the cool sword wielder.

Basically I am excited for a match which is surprising given this contest and all.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:58:05 AM | message detail
No. I calculated it. Tifa is seen for about 15 seconds in the entire game (she punches a wall, then has a small cutscene in the thousand heartless fight). Auron joins your party.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CDC9NlDN00
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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 11/12/2008 11:00:57 AM | message detail
Are Samus and Crono the favorites in their match? Is Samus projected to finish first with Crono behind her?
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hailEC | Posted 11/12/2008 11:02:09 AM | message detail
Anyone can finish 2nd tomorrow imo. Let's just hope for something exciting.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
Tai | Posted 11/12/2008 11:03:34 AM | message detail
If Crono beats Samus I'll punch a ****ing wall.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2008 11:04:29 AM | message detail
If Crono beats Samus, I'll paint a rat yellow and torture the hell out of it.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
hailEC | Posted 11/12/2008 11:05:07 AM | message detail
If Crono beats Samus, I'll go ass to mouth.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
__hiei__ | Posted 11/12/2008 11:08:21 AM | message detail
If Crono beats Samus this will be the best contest ever
charmander6000 | Posted 11/12/2008 11:12:44 AM | message detail
If the results are Pikachu > Crono it will be the best match ever.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 247/368 Today's Match: Sephiroth > Sonic
transience | Posted 11/12/2008 11:16:52 AM | message detail
you never go ass to mouth
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hailEC | Posted 11/12/2008 11:18:52 AM | message detail
exactly
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all hail ec your lord and savior
charmander6000 | Posted 11/12/2008 11:24:49 AM | message detail
>_>

So anybody expecting Kratos to do anything with the ASV? Personally I only think he could shave off a few hundred votes.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 247/368 Today's Match: Sephiroth > Sonic
The Mana Sword | Posted 11/12/2008 11:26:54 AM | message detail
Yeah, Kratos'll probably close the gap a bit, but I doubt it's anything significant. If he pulls the lead below 1000 I'd be surprised.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/12/2008 11:40:03 AM | message detail
If Kratos's day vote is like Sub-Zero's it'll end around 17% to 16%. Obviously in Auron's favor
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/12/2008 12:12:38 PM | message detail
Auron being affected by Sephiroth less than Tifa isn't *that* surprising. Sephy and Tifa share the same game, but Auron and Sephy both fall under the badass category - and we've seen just how much they can hurt each other.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
charmander6000 | Posted 11/12/2008 12:22:22 PM | message detail
Last round Tifa got 32.57% on Sephiroth and now Auron is getting 31.54%.

Seems like Tifa had more of an overlap than Auron against Sephiroth (obviously) since Kratos went from 36.86% to 28.82% between rounds. The only thing happening here is Auron is getting hit by a ton of SFF while Sephiroth is doing a good job by not being dragged down with Auron.

You shouldn't use SFF matches to compare the only conclusion you're going to get is who Sephiroth SFF better.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 247/368 Today's Match: Sephiroth > Sonic
BDawg | Posted 11/12/2008 1:31:40 PM | message detail
Well after this I guess Sonic is safe enough next round. It wasn't all that great but I really don't see Dante or Kirby pulling in a whole lot more percentage than Auron/Kratos. Sonic will probably be dragged down a bit by Kirby but the only threat would be Dante just totally resisting Sephiroth.
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Should I start running now?
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2008 3:06:08 PM | message detail
Yeah, he'll go on to the semifinals, and if Cloud does to Sephiroth what he did last year, Sonic might end up looking good compared to Seph, too. Of course, he didn't deserve a bit of this, but it'll just be sweeter when he flubs next year. Here's to hoping he draws Auron or Squall in Round 2.
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voltch | Posted 11/12/2008 3:17:47 PM | message detail
it's too bad sonic did so poorly,unleashed better help him.
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Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/12/2008 3:20:05 PM | message detail
Am I the only one who thinks Sonic could still easily beat Auron one on one and that Sandbag hurt Sonic last round?

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