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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 629

Lopen | Posted 11/11/2008 9:25:14 PM | message detail
He'll probably lead Cloud past the first update, in fact - maybe even well into the Power Hour.

Try the whole match

Snake's got it
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe
trannyscience | Posted 11/11/2008 9:25:31 PM | message detail
g'bye Auron
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/11/2008 9:25:34 PM | message detail
Kratos CUT
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 9:25:46 PM | message detail
Is that a kratos cut i see
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2008 9:25:50 PM | message detail
*losses on Kratos

...augh
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spiegel22 | Posted 11/11/2008 9:26:10 PM | message detail
Go go Sonic! Preserve my near perfect Round 3! 14 Green 2 Red. Stupid cube and Yoshi faith. :/


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Xcarvenger | Posted 11/11/2008 9:26:44 PM | message detail
whoa Sephiroth rising fast
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creativename | Posted 11/11/2008 9:26:53 PM | message detail
Sephiroth at 35.59 already? Damn. Looks like he'll blow by most expectations.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
trannyscience | Posted 11/11/2008 9:27:27 PM | message detail
Sephiroth's really doing well here. and as he rises, Auron's probably going to suffer.

38/28/16/14 would be my quick guess. Auron being the 14.
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xyzzy
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2008 9:29:10 PM | message detail
If this keeps up, it looks like Tifa might indeed be closer to Vincent/Squall than she is to Auron. Interesting.
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creativename | Posted 11/11/2008 9:29:18 PM | message detail
14 for Auron? What?

Auron will rise overnight, then be mostly stable during the day, all considered. Most of the % gain in this match for Auron, and even Kratos (despite Kratos being more of a day guy), will come during the night.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 9:30:03 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #061
14 for Auron? What?

Auron will rise overnight, then be mostly stable during the day, all considered. Most of the % gain in this match for Auron, and even Kratos (despite Kratos being more of a day guy), will come during the night.



Auron will fall in comparitive to Sephiroths rise due to SFF
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trannyscience | Posted 11/11/2008 9:30:30 PM | message detail
did you just see him drop .6% in one update? cause I did.

*reloads* oh hey he recovered
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xyzzy
http://isobamapresident.com/
Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2008 9:30:44 PM | message detail
auron stufferz to the rescue
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hmm
well then
PegasusLover123 | Posted 11/11/2008 9:31:16 PM | message detail
So is it gonna be Seph>Sonic?
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 11/11/2008 9:31:24 PM | message detail
way to drop during the power hour, Sephiroth. >_>
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creativename | Posted 11/11/2008 9:32:49 PM | message detail
Auron's better in the night than Sephiroth, which will counteract him being better at the board vote somewhat. So what happens between Sephiroth and Auron's %es overnight, I don't know.

But Auron's raw % - which is obviously what I was talking about - should rise overnight from what he ends with at the conclusion of the Power Hour. 14% for Auron is crazy talk, IMO.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
creativename | Posted 11/11/2008 9:34:43 PM | message detail
In fact, I don't see anyone in this match finishing below 16% (and Kratos is still the most probable 4th, although far from a lock).
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BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
Xcarvenger | Posted 11/11/2008 9:35:26 PM | message detail
I'd guess 38/26/18/18
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2008 9:36:12 PM | message detail
Kratos has one of the worst board vote/power hours... like, ever. Auron would need a dominant night vote to keep him away.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2008 9:36:16 PM | message detail
Will be interesting to see how Kirby and Sonic overlap next round, but I personally can't wait for Crono/Vincent redux.

I like Crono for that match, since Samus and Pikachu probably hurt Crono a lot less than Link/Zero
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 9:37:41 PM | message detail
Kratos has a stellar day vote. Auron would need to be up by 1200 or so to beat Kratos
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trannyscience | Posted 11/11/2008 9:38:24 PM | message detail
yeah, Kratos sucks early and has a killer day vote... one of the best around. Sephiroth also sucks early.

if Sephiroth is to rise, I expect it to be at Auron's expense. maybe 14% is a little harsh, but I wouldn't be surprised if it got there. 15% is probably more likely. and like Squall a couple days ago, Auron probably has the worst day vote here. it's not bad or anything, but look at the competition.
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xyzzy
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/11/2008 9:38:25 PM | message detail
10 people fell off the Top 50 today. Nameless2000, Karma_Hunter, RagingDragonair, Starion_Gf, cloya, TalkAboutCesc, Terrane, Kouga14, Denzokuken and Celtic7Guardian did not have Kirby > Dante as yesterday's winners.

31 people scored half points and survived. abflamex, BesaidGuy, Haste_2, jjoseph2, Demon_HunterX, mrlitigator, Drakeryn, AraBomb, superstarkyle, Bradbergticus, GreatOne367rm, InfernoBane, PIaystation, ZenithianLegend, DarkEvilShadow, KadenceInc, Luminous951, Cloudxsquall, TheLuinGuy, riemedev, hellfire104, ChemicalDragon, TheChosenOnes, chaosarcher07, BMDeluxe, NyuuTheKitsune, Shadow_Zangoose, DivineKrystal, Wolf_Kenri, AffeldtABoob and Undeniable also did not have Kirby > Dante as yesterday's winners.

3 people scored quarter points and survived. PunkGag, Kirinatw and StealThisSheen had something vaguely similar to Kirby > Dante as yesterday's winners.

2 people didn't score any points at all and managed to survived. Former first place SSpectre and former third place skirtlesswonder had neither Dante nor Kirby advancing from yesterday's match.

4 people knew what was what. andylt, blindhobo13, halloweeneon and bgbball31 all correctly predicted Kirby > Dante as yesterday's winners. andylt is now in first place and leads second by 6 points.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/11/2008 9:40:20 PM | message detail
damn you to hell sonic
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Xcarvenger | Posted 11/11/2008 9:42:51 PM | message detail
You know what would be funny? Cloud loses to Snake in the semi and then goes on to win the contest on the next day >_>
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Lopen | Posted 11/11/2008 9:50:05 PM | message detail
You know what would be funny? Cloud loses to Snake in the semi and then goes on to win the contest on the next day >_>

My bracket had a similar result... with MC taking Snake's place. I still think it can and will happen. Though my money is on the guy who isn't Snake being the one upsetting Cloud.
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
Iubaris | Posted 11/11/2008 9:50:53 PM | message detail
From: Lopen | #077
My bracket had a similar result... with MC taking Snake's place. I still think it can and will happen. Though my money is on the guy who isn't Snake being the one upsetting Cloud.

Uh, you do realize MC's out, right? >_>;
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creativename | Posted 11/11/2008 9:50:55 PM | message detail
Kratos has a stellar day vote. Auron would need to be up by 1200 or so to beat Kratos

WTF. 1200!? You are grossly misunderstanding Auron, as well as - and more importantly - the nature of the meager %es with which both are working. Since about 30% of the votes are in by weekdays, and matches tend to be getting around 140K votes, 1200 votes at 8:00am would be about a 2.5% lead at that time.

With both under 20%. In other words, Auron would be smashing Kratos to bits if he had a 1200 vote lead. With % differences that big, the best Kratos could hope to do there is stall in terms of raw vote deficit the rest of the day.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 9:52:31 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #079
Kratos has a stellar day vote. Auron would need to be up by 1200 or so to beat Kratos

WTF. 1200!? You are grossly misunderstanding Auron, as well as - and more importantly - the nature of the meager %es with which both are working. Since about 30% of the votes are in by weekdays, and matches tend to be getting around 140K votes, 1200 votes at 8:00am would be about a 2.5% lead at that time.

With both under 20%. In other words, Auron would be smashing Kratos to bits if he had a 1200 vote lead. With % differences that big, the best Kratos could hope to do there is stall in terms of raw vote deficit the rest of the day.



Sora and Squall were working with similiar percentages
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Lopen | Posted 11/11/2008 9:53:59 PM | message detail
Uh, you do realize MC's out, right? >_>;

No ****, doesn't change that that's what my bracket says.

Also doesn't change the fact that I'd have had Sonic doing the same thing if he were there. And with this "sore thumb" factor as strong as it is I wouldn't entirely put it out of Kirby's reach either, stats be damned to hell.
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
Gaddswell | Posted 11/11/2008 10:51:46 PM | message detail
Auron seems to have picked up the speed this last hour. He keeps this up and he should be safe for 3rd.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 10:56:13 PM | message detail
Aurons safe for third.
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Lopen | Posted 11/11/2008 10:57:04 PM | message detail
Yeah, Auron's good to go here. Kratos's day vote is kinda overrated anyway if you ask me.
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Kirby's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 4 - Seph/Sonic/Dante.
Target: 48% GAME FUEL, Nekkid Cartwheels, Snake Proxy, all powers belong to Kirby.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 11:00:28 PM | message detail
lulz sonic cut
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 11:05:17 PM | message detail
Even though Kratos will finish last year, you can't really fault him for it. Its tough to go up against 2 noble niners and a top 12 character, and he's holding up like a champ
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transience | Posted 11/11/2008 11:29:12 PM | message detail
check out this epic stall by Kratos.
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xyzzy
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edwardsdv | Posted 11/11/2008 11:31:41 PM | message detail
I am admiring the efforts the Lowertwo are putting out in spite of the competition.

And I am totally being forced to eat my words about Sonic. He's posting Kirby's numbers against Sephiroth. This could all change in the day vote but Damn.
transience | Posted 11/11/2008 11:37:16 PM | message detail
this is, like, the exact same time where Dante took off. I wonder if Kratos is going to win the night vote over Auron. that'd be weird.

and yeah, Sonic's not going to lose to Kirby. Dante is possible, but very unlikely.
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xyzzy
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Zenithian Legend | Posted 11/12/2008 12:02:49 AM | message detail
Heh, not only did Kirby's goofiness keep me on the leaderboard (damn MC), but Sephiroth and Sonic will help me stay there at least one more day.

Damn you straight to hell though L-Block, I don't think I can hang with the top 50 without one of my final 4 characters... let alone my runner-up pick.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/12/2008 12:10:22 AM | message detail
Hey Zenithian.

7-6 =)
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/12/2008 3:18:00 AM | message detail
damn LFF

damn hedgehog

damn fourth chaos emerald

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/12/2008 5:49:32 AM | message detail
It's sad that the high point of Sonic's contest (really, the ONLY good point...) is that he led Sephiroth at the freeze.

yeah, Kratos sucks early and has a killer day vote... one of the best around.

Sephy kinda neutralized it last round though. Kratos didn't do too much with it. I'd say Auron's safe here.
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Temporarily Sidetracked
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 6:09:01 AM | message detail
So in power it is Link>Cloud>Sephiroth right?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/12/2008 6:09:57 AM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Kirby | The Chief | Dante | Leon
EBV | 36.34% | 22.90% | 23.40% | 17.35% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 32.12% | 23.38% | 24.50% | 20.00% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 29.30% | 22.12% | 28.34% | 20.24% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 31.31% | 21.53% | 27.33% | 19.84% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 30.12% | 23.71% | 26.12% | 20.04% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 29.49% | 26.18% | 25.21% | 19.12% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 28.43% | 25.28% | 25.88% | 20.40% | (22:00-24:00)

Great board vote and Power Hour for Kirby here, mostly at Dante's expense. Dante has a great night vote and gradually drops throughout the day, contrary to typical trends for him. Master Chief does make a marked improvement during the ASV, but it appeared to be a bit subdued because he just took a little bit from each character. Each of the other three dropped about a percent each from the DSV, and so while Chief rose 2.5% or so, it didn't appear to be as substantial. Leon's pretty consistent throughout here.

Yesterday's stats:

Kirby – 50.00%
Dante Sparda – 46.61%
Master Chief – 44.60%
Leon Kennedy – 39.75%

Division 7 Stats

Kirby – 50.00%
Dante Sparda – 46.61%
Master Chief – 44.60%
Leon Kennedy – 44.37%
Big Boss – 41.27%
Raiden – 38.80%
Riku – 36.92%
Kain Highwind – 35.74%
Siegfried Schtauffen – 26.67%
Hogger – 25.94%
Ramza Beoulve – 25.81%
Laharl – 25.45%
Captain MacMillan – 22.54%
Jinjo – 19.01%
Professor Layton – 18.13%
Lucas – 12.14%

Some of you are wondering why Leon's so close to Master Chief here. I decided to adjust him based on Dante from last round. There may be no reason for doing so, but Leon did drop 5% from his 2nd round performance on Dante. The raw stats use this 3rd round Leon, so you can see the stats based off of that.

Division 7 Raw Stats

Big Boss – 50.00%
Kirby – 43.34%
Dante Sparda – 40.40%
Master Chief – 38.66%
Leon Kennedy – 34.46%
Kain Highwind – 30.98%
Raiden – 30.47%
Riku – 28.67%
Hogger – 22.48%
Ramza Beoulve – 22.37%
Laharl – 22.06%
Siegfried Schtauffen – 20.71%
Captain MacMillan – 17.51%
Jinjo – 16.48%
Professor Layton – 15.72%
Lucas – 10.52%

Also known as the Big Boss fanboy edition. By the way, if you give Big Boss his round 2 value, Raiden's raw stat is 25.15%, for the curious. As we see, 3rd round Leon drops Riku below Kain Highwind and drops Siegfried below the Hogger trio. Up to you guys which you think is better. Heck, Riku is worse than SFF'd Raiden based on round 1 Big Boss (though a decent bit better if you use round 2 Big Boss).
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Temporarily Sidetracked
H__RR____H | Posted 11/12/2008 6:11:51 AM | message detail
So...why is Tifa outdoing Auron? Auron > Tifa was generally accepted and Tifa shares FF7 with Sephiroth while Auron is from FFX. As I understand it, Auron has a bigger role in KH2 than Tifa, too. Maybe since Auron seems more similar to Seph than Tifa does? Maybe the level of competition going up much higher (replace Jill with Sonic) caused more Auron fans to defect than Seph-fans? I don't know, but it's messing with me. At least it's not by a LOT -- Tifa's performance in R2 currently gets 51.14% on Auron, though the day probably won't be kind to Auron in comparison to the other characters today. Expect that gap to grow.


So, this will be the last time I ask it now that everyone involved has been eliminated; we've got about as much information as we can get from them this contest:

Auron
Sora
Squall
Tifa
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BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now.
www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 6:16:52 AM | message detail
Poor Lucas
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/12/2008 6:19:43 AM | message detail
Squall > Auron
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/12/2008 6:22:06 AM | message detail
Tifa > Squall and Auron IMO
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jkmill550 | Posted 11/12/2008 6:23:16 AM | message detail
Tifa's exposure THROUGHOUT KH2 > Auron's presence in the first or second level of the game. Auron is seen less than Aeris, Yuffie, Yuna, Tifa, Cloud, and Squall in the game as a whole.

Anyway, the only certain thing in that matchup is that Sora is last. Tifa should not counted out for placing, though.
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