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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 629

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2008 10:11:04 PM | message detail
dammit tranpants
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Xcarvenger | Posted 11/12/2008 10:12:24 PM | message detail
By the way if Crono wins tomorrow, I'd think Mario is guaranteed a spot in the final. Crono isn't immune to Link's SFF, and in fact he'll get hammered as much as Mario imho. CTDS hype may make this a bit closer, but at the most we'd see a close Mario/Crono epic Part III with Mario wins again. And if Mario is in the final, we all know Cloud > Link is almost locked-up (no, Sephiroth isn't making it there).

so yeah guys, make sure Crono wins tomorrow tbqh

(oh and don't die Mario)
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:13:07 PM | message detail
I fail to see how Mario is guaranteed a spot in the final when just today we see how hammered he is with SFF, and Samus will be there hurting him too. Its a bye round for Crono or Vincent.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:13:39 PM | message detail
Save_Mario.RAT
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:13:47 PM | message detail
Now X decides to make a move. I'm going to predict that both Zack and X manage to overtake Mario sometime tonight, though X should collapse past 4 while Zack pulls in his best percentages of the day between 4 and 6.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:14:42 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #455
Now X decides to make a move. I'm going to predict that both Zack and X manage to overtake Mario sometime tonight, though X should collapse past 4 while Zack pulls in his best percentages of the day between 4 and 6.



Hmm. If Mario falls to 4th and still advances, will that be the first time that happens in a 4way?
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/12/2008 10:15:21 PM | message detail
I think X LFF makes sense for Mario, and we've all seen how well he handles Samus.

It's just down to how well Crono deals with Link... hopefully not well at all.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:15:31 PM | message detail
Uh... don't die yet Zack
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transience | Posted 11/12/2008 10:15:37 PM | message detail
CTDS's big advantage is the dearth of DS releases this holiday. it is THE holiday DS title, so Nintendo has to push it.
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xyzzy
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RPGuy96 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:15:39 PM | message detail
I dunno about CTDS. I get the argument that Crono hasn't had anything to sustain him for the last twelve years, so it could help there. But it's just a DS port in a system flooded with SquEnix ports (and I should know, I own damned near all of them). I'm quite skeptical of how much it can do for him.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2008 10:15:44 PM | message detail
By the way if Crono wins tomorrow, I'd think Mario is guaranteed a spot in the final.

That's one hell of a bold statement.
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/12/2008 10:15:47 PM | message detail
'bout time Mario gained again.

Definitely looking like X will take back 3rd!
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:15:58 PM | message detail
Ok, so apparently the second board vote is coming in.
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Lopen | Posted 11/12/2008 10:16:47 PM | message detail
lol ZACK FAIR POWER HOUR
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:16:50 PM | message detail

From: RPGuy96 | #460
I dunno about CTDS. I get the argument that Crono hasn't had anything to sustain him for the last twelve years, so it could help there. But it's just a DS port in a system flooded with SquEnix ports (and I should know, I own damned near all of them). I'm quite skeptical of how much it can do for him.



You think Kain or Rydia would have done anywhere near as well this year without the DS port? Now give that kinda boost to an established noble niner.
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paraboxx | Posted 11/12/2008 10:17:08 PM | message detail
...

what the **** is this ****

(Hmm, would that be Stats or Discussion?)
transience | Posted 11/12/2008 10:18:23 PM | message detail
I think CTDS is a bit different than something like FF4. the game just means more. it's like saying an FF7 port wouldn't do anything - I'd disagree.
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xyzzy
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/12/2008 10:18:56 PM | message detail
You think Kain or Rydia would have done anywhere near as well this year without the DS port?

No. Hell, they (and Cecil) wouldn't have even made the contest!
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/12/2008 10:19:00 PM | message detail
First time in a long while I see someone not using TJF to explain Rydia!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:19:31 PM | message detail
Granted, CT isn't as big of a deal in mainstream gaming as FF7, so it wouldn't be like a FF7 port. But hopefully it will fix the CT day vote somewhat with younger people playing it.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:19:51 PM | message detail
From the looks of it the FFIV characters got a rather large boost from their DS game. And it really doesn't take all that much for a rather massive boost, you just need to be exposed to a new audience. CTDS could end up helping Crono only a little.....but the ceiling to what it could do for him is incredibly high. Also, it will be his first release in Europe, right?
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:20:08 PM | message detail

From: Gaddswell | #469
First time in a long while I see someone not using TJF to explain Rydia!



I kinda did, since the TJF pic was from the DS artwork/renders, so it wouldn't of been there without the DS remake! :P
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:20:37 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
edwardsdv | Posted 11/12/2008 10:20:52 PM | message detail
Which of these four has the best Day votes and ASV
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:21:10 PM | message detail

From: edwardsdv | #474
Which of these four has the best Day votes and ASV



Of the 3 that matter, Mario does.
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paraboxx | Posted 11/12/2008 10:21:59 PM | message detail
I don't think CTDS will do as much as FF4DS. Yes, it's the first CT in a while, but it's also a straight port. The straight port to GBA didn't do wonders for FF6 characters, did it? (Or FF4, for that matter.)
red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:23:09 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy Chronicles got a release in Europe IIRC.

Ah, okay, but it should still help out with his horrible late night/early morning vote at least.

Mario took 2 updates, but that's to be expected- we're not into the deep night yet. If this one is close, does Mario still have the clutch factor after 5 years of not using it?
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:23:17 PM | message detail

From: paraboxx | #476
I don't think CTDS will do as much as FF4DS. Yes, it's the first CT in a while, but it's also a straight port. The straight port to GBA didn't do wonders for FF6 characters, did it? (Or FF4, for that matter.)



I wouldn't expect the FF6 port to do much because it actually came out after the DS was already the main handheld, so I don't think it would of attracted many people to get it outside of FF6 fans anyway.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:23:42 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #477
Final Fantasy Chronicles got a release in Europe IIRC.

Ah, okay, but it should still help out with his horrible late night/early morning vote at least.

Mario took 2 updates, but that's to be expected- we're not into the deep night yet. If this one is close, does Mario still have the clutch factor after 5 years of not using it?



Actually I was wrong, I looked it up and that wasn't released in Europe. So yes, it'll be the first release of it in Europe outside of Emulation
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Xcarvenger | Posted 11/12/2008 10:24:15 PM | message detail
I kinda agree that if Vincent makes it tomorrow, he'll also be in the final (unless Zack = Vincent -- there's a slight possibility there because we all know that Vincent is as prominent as Zack in FFVII), but Crono is affected by Nintendo SFF as well I'd imagine, especially the ones from SNES era (i.e. Link and Samus, and to certain extent Zero and Pikachu). Otherwise he'd not be underperforming last year against Zero (and Link) and again this year against Pikachu.
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creativename | Posted 11/12/2008 10:24:54 PM | message detail
CTDS's big advantage is the dearth of DS releases this holiday. it is THE holiday DS title, so Nintendo has to push it.

Really? ...hmmm. It that's truly the case, then CTDS could potentially have a Kingdom Hearts Factor effect on Crono, and boost him quite a bit.

I don't know just how much the DS release helped Kain and Rydia. But another thing about that is, FFIV has been ported a bajillion times already. Chrono Trigger has had nothing other than the PSX port.
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Save_Us.RAT
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edwardsdv | Posted 11/12/2008 10:26:42 PM | message detail
The CT is not a strait port. granted it is no a re-rendering,but theres tons of added content.

Itll be the first time many of the younger fans will have played it and will introduce it to those of us who are non- mega rpg fanatics.
The_Ocelot2 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:26:48 PM | message detail
CTDS is not coming out in Europe until Q1 2009.
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creativename | Posted 11/12/2008 10:28:24 PM | message detail
Actually I was wrong, I looked it up and that wasn't released in Europe. So yes, it'll be the first release of it in Europe outside of Emulation

Huh. That could be pretty significant for that portion of the vote - albeit, it's a small portion of the total vote, the impact on that section should be there even if the game sells only a little bit over there.

I'm seeing more and more reasons to jump on the CTDS Crono hype train!
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:29:42 PM | message detail
Crono wouldn't be hurt by Link nearly as badly as Mario. Unless you think he was at Mario level or higher last year, and would have crushed Vincent 1v1?

If Mario holds on to 2nd today, and Samus advances tomorrow, the winner of Crono/Vincent making the finals is almost a lock. If Zack places today, Crono/Samus becomes a very interesting match in the semis (don't think there is much overlap between CT and FFVII- or not anywhere near the degree of overlap between Link and Samus, anyway). If Zack and Vincent are there, I'd call Samus the definite favorite, although I wouldn't completely rule out Link acting like the King of SFF and/or Vincent or Zack managing to (r)SFF the other into oblivion.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
creativename | Posted 11/12/2008 10:30:13 PM | message detail
CTDS is not coming out in Europe until Q1 2009.

Which will be long before the next contest anyway.

Hmm...and if the next contest is a games contest, CTDS should help Chrono Trigger itself out quite a bit too. The game has probably fallen quite a bit from the last games contest.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
Gaddswell | Posted 11/12/2008 10:30:47 PM | message detail
Whoa Zack collapse
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:30:53 PM | message detail
uhhh X?
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/12/2008 10:31:53 PM | message detail
woo X! Take back that lead, it's yours!
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Today's prediction: Link 38.36% - Mario 24.54% - Mega Man X 20.91% - Zack Fair 16.19%
Status:
transience | Posted 11/12/2008 10:32:12 PM | message detail
yeah, post-CTDS could see CT hold onto that #3 spot - without it, it's tough to pick it over LTTP or maybe some of the next-tier games like SSBM and Mario 3.
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paraboxx | Posted 11/12/2008 10:35:42 PM | message detail
...i cannot take this ****

Pick a lane, dammit!!
Pick. A. Lane.

(Pretty soon I'm going to be typing straight gibberish.)
Gaddswell | Posted 11/12/2008 10:35:51 PM | message detail
And now we have a Mario collapse!
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Tohoya | Posted 11/12/2008 10:35:57 PM | message detail
Triple Nintendo LFF in this match.

Zack isn't a beast for hanging with X and Mario any more than Mewtwo is near noble for smashing squall and sora
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/12/2008 10:37:41 PM | message detail
Huh. That could be pretty significant for that portion of the vote - albeit, it's a small portion of the total vote, the impact on that section should be there even if the game sells only a little bit over there.

Yep, the marginal returns on CTDS would be extremely high in Europe in that case. To give an illustration of just how high the potential is (no, it's not nearly as high as in this example), suppose that Crono really gets 0 votes from Europe at this time. Past polls have indicated that Europe makes up about 17% of the site. To get 50% in a poll, then, Crono needs over 60% of the non-European vote.

Now, clearly the assumption that Crono gets nothing from Europe now is absurd, and it's highly unlikely he would be as popular in Europe after CTDS as he is in America now. But you also have to remember that CTDS will also be released in North America. The sheer potential on this game is huge.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/12/2008 10:38:09 PM | message detail
I hate how X was stuck with Mario practically the whole time. It's practically impossible to tell where he is in relation to regular Megaman
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Xcarvenger | Posted 11/12/2008 10:38:25 PM | message detail
Crono wouldn't be hurt by Link nearly as badly as Mario. Unless you think he was at Mario level or higher last year, and would have crushed Vincent 1v1?

I think he would. I'd say he'd have crushed Vincent last year (51-49 more like, but the point is Crono is beating him) if not for Link and Zero in the match. but it was quite clear that Crono wasn't on Mario level last year (he scored lower % on Link that scored higher % in comparison to Mario). and I don't think there is a significant SFF between Crono and Vincent (Vincent got the advantage of the "Sore Thumb Factor" in the second round last year imho).

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/12/2008 10:39:34 PM | message detail
Sorry to beat a dead horse, but I'd take X over Mega Man. Indirectly, who knows, but I very much doubt oldies Mega Man would be beating Mario here.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/12/2008 10:41:17 PM | message detail
Seems X and Zack are gonna keep on going dead even here
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Lopen | Posted 11/12/2008 10:41:35 PM | message detail
This would be pretty epic if Mario was about 250 down
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Xcarvenger | Posted 11/12/2008 10:41:52 PM | message detail
Cloud > Link train activated choo choo
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