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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 628

ZenOfThunder | Posted 11/11/2008 8:00:28 PM | message detail
"That Sasuke-looking guy" actually looks pretty lame.

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HaRRicH | Posted 11/11/2008 8:01:04 PM | message detail
Leonhart, I can't find where you mentioned my Kirby > Sonic post...but I was saying that to argue against Dante > Sonic; if Dante can duke it out with Sonic and Kirby's beating Dante this clearly today, then Kirby could slip by Sonic. I don't think that will happen, however, so that was the point I wanted to make.

I'm seeing Sephiroth > Sonic, but it depends on what we see Sonic do tomorrow. He should get through easily enough...but still, Auron will certainly do better against Sephiroth than Tifa. Whether that means he can beat Sonic again or still lose to Kratos, I dunno...but I think he'll barely beat Kratos.
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Biolizard28 | Posted 11/11/2008 8:01:29 PM | message detail
From: Kullstrom
Yeah a guy behind the towering forces of Lucario and Mewtwo would do that alright. Pikachu wouldn't even get 50% there.

I love how you consider that he'd be against a washed up character who would probably not even beat Crash Bandicoot, a FF character post-X, and a Star Wars guy.

But of course, Pikachu could NEVER score 50% in a match of all these winners!
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Kullstrom | Posted 11/11/2008 8:05:20 PM | message detail
Lara's hardly "washed up". Legend was nothing but well received and Crash is hardly bottom rung fodder either, sounds like you just have a thing against playstation icons. >_>

Maybe it's wishful thinking but I'd like to think that the majority of GF users wouldn't vote a random dragon over probably the biggest gaming icon from 95-2000 and a Final Fantasy lead. Hell he/she/it probably should beat the star wars dude though. n_n

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charmander6000 | Posted 11/11/2008 8:06:08 PM | message detail
Match LVI: Auron vs. Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Sephiroth vs. Kratos

Last Round:

Auron – 34.64%
Sonic the Hedgehog – 29.69%
Sub-Zero – 20.52%
Sandbag – 15.15%

Auron beating Sonic wasn’t that unexpected, but the amount that he defeated him by was. You couldn’t even blame Sandbag on this because how badly Sonic was beaten. Speaking of joke characters Sandbag folded pretty badly last round and couldn’t even give Sub-Zero a fight, though with L-Block falling and WCC needing a rally to win I guess now we can say that the result was sort of expected.

Sephiroth – 41.53%
Kratos – 24.25%
Tifa Lockheart – 20.06%
Jill Valentine – 14.16%

In the sign of real strength Sephiroth decides to step it up causing Tifa to take a drop in strength relative to last round. Actually if Tifa was able to be constant to Sephiroth last round she would have beaten Kratos. I guess SFF works in weird ways. Jill looked better last round though I guess most last place characters tend to underperform or maybe FFVII has an overlap with RE.

Analysis:

Final match of the round and for the second time this round we have two noble nine characters going at it with a potential noble nine breaker trying to work his magic. To end this round, like last round we’ll have two stronger characters with a fanbase overlap while the weaker character attempts to speed into second.

Despite being hurt for a third time by fanbase overlap Sephiroth should have no problems taking first. Sephiroth is on the head end of this overlap and he would have to be massively affected to lose to Sonic. Last round Tifa, who obviously has more overlap with Sephiroth didn’t cause Kratos to give Sephiroth a scare. I’m not saying that Sonic is close to Kratos, but Sephiroth and Auron will have even less overlap and Sonic would have to make a 17 point jump from Kratos just to catch up.

While Sephiroth is out of reach Auron isn’t. Sonic really dropped the ball last round though the performances of other Sonic characters and his round one performance were all pointing in this direction. Sonic gets a second chance and will hopefully utilize it. Last year Auron had the unfortunate path of meeting Cloud and while we should have made it to round 4 it was Ryu who benefitted. Well last round Sonic was able to do better on Auron than Ryu did in round 2 which speaks well for his chances.

Well Nintendo characters were screwed in the upper half of the bracket the same can be said about Square characters in the lower half. First Squall and now Auron is next to be eliminated earlier than needed to be because of fanbase overlap. The only chance Auron has is to hope that Sephiroth won’t affect him as much as Cloud did and even if that is true Sonic needs a smaller shift than Ryu to advance to round 4.

Kratos won’t be doing much in this match. Maybe if Auron is hit by SFF worse than he was last year Kratos would have a chance for an upset, but there’s no chance that he’s going to sneak in second. The only thing interesting about Kratos that I will be watching is his board vote. Not being much of a favourite and having no bracket support we could see this guy start with sub-10% before attempting to make his performance look respectable.

Sephiroth walks out of this division with barely a scratch while Sonic tries to regain some dignity after his loss against Auron. Next round there’s no fanbase overlap for Sonic to work with and if anything it will work against him with Kirby being in the match. After this match we’ll be down to our final week and we’re down to 6 Nintendo vs. 5 Square (or shall I say 4 FFVII and Crono) vs. 5 Others, only one will win.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Sephiroth > Sonic

charmander6000’s Prediction: Sephiroth – 35.64%, Sonic – 24.32%, Auron – 22.43%, Kratos – 17.61%
Lopen | Posted 11/11/2008 8:14:53 PM | message detail
Man, what a disappointing day vote from MC. I mean, yeah, you can't expect too many votes to actually be cut when you're down a solid 4-5% to start the morning, but he only gained ~2% with it, that may be his worst ever.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2008 8:32:31 PM | message detail
And I have to say that I like Dante's chances of beating Sonic next round. Certainly a more viable upset than Chief > Sonic ever was. The only thing he has to worry about is Silver Hair SFF from Sephiroth
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2008 8:33:26 PM | message detail
Are you all considering exactly how difficult it is to score 50% in a match? Even with Amaterasu, Little Mac, and an f'ing MII, Dante couldn't hit that mark. Now people are expecting PIKACHU to do better? Please, someone show me the logic.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 8:34:28 PM | message detail
Black Turtle says something smart for once!
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Kullstrom | Posted 11/11/2008 8:34:34 PM | message detail
Biolizard is expecting Pikachu to break 50%.
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trannyscience | Posted 11/11/2008 8:34:40 PM | message detail
bubububut it beat L-Block
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/11/2008 8:36:20 PM | message detail
And I have to say that I like Dante's chances of beating Sonic next round. Certainly a more viable upset than Chief > Sonic ever was. The only thing he has to worry about is Silver Hair SFF from Sephiroth

Are you kidding? There'll be badass SFF, just like there is going to be in the next match. And that Brawl deboost? That's a myth. I'm sure Olimar, Lucario, Diddy Kong, and the like would've done terrible even without Brawl.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
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BDawg | Posted 11/11/2008 8:36:23 PM | message detail
Then Crono will put up 60%!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2008 8:37:25 PM | message detail
I'm sure Olimar, Lucario, Diddy Kong, and the like would've done terrible even without Brawl.

itt not understanding the deboost theory
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 8:37:33 PM | message detail
lolimar
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Kullstrom | Posted 11/11/2008 8:38:11 PM | message detail
Sonic lost to Auron, a guy out of Dante's league with a SSB and Genesis character in the poll, I doubt he'd lose to him 1v1 and he certainly wouldn't have a problem with Dante even with Kirby there.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 8:41:15 PM | message detail

From: Kullstrom | #416
Sonic lost to Auron, a guy out of Dante's league with a SSB and Genesis character in the poll, I doubt he'd lose to him 1v1 and he certainly wouldn't have a problem with Dante even with Kirby there.



Actually, I wouldn't say Dante is out of Aurons league...

Auron (2006c) VS Dante (2006c)

Auron has a strength of 34.68.
Dante has a strength of 36.43.

Dante wins with 52.40% of the vote!
A win of 6,119 with 127,385 total votes cast.
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Lopen | Posted 11/11/2008 8:42:08 PM | message detail
Got my money on Sonic finishing last next round. Just a gut feeling.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe
Kullstrom | Posted 11/11/2008 8:42:23 PM | message detail
It's a pretty small league.
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ZFS | Posted 11/11/2008 8:43:28 PM | message detail
Sonic/Sub-Zero BSFF

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Kullstrom | Posted 11/11/2008 8:43:42 PM | message detail
Sonic (2007c raw) VS Dante (2007c raw)

Sonic has a strength of 51.97.
Dante has a strength of 34.23.

Sonic wins with 67.07% of the vote!
A win of 53,775 with 157,536 total votes cast.




flawless
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 8:43:58 PM | message detail
Dante (2006c) VS Sonic (2006c)

Dante has a strength of 36.43.
Sonic has a strength of 38.70.

Sonic wins with 52.93% of the vote!
A win of 7,861 with 134,011 total votes cast.


I know lol xstats and all, but Sonic has dropped since the last 1v1 contest, and Dante has stayed on strong. Throw Kirby in there to SFF Sonic...
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 8:44:22 PM | message detail

From: Kullstrom | #421
Sonic (2007c raw) VS Dante (2007c raw)

Sonic has a strength of 51.97.
Dante has a strength of 34.23.

Sonic wins with 67.07% of the vote!
A win of 53,775 with 157,536 total votes cast.




flawless




Raw stats.
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Kullstrom | Posted 11/11/2008 8:44:54 PM | message detail
No kidding
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/11/2008 8:45:32 PM | message detail
Once again, if you're going to argue Kirby SFFing Sonic, you've also got to account for Sephy SFFing Dante.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
Lopen | Posted 11/11/2008 8:45:56 PM | message detail
Sonic (2007c raw) VS Dante (2007c raw)

Sonic has a strength of 51.97.


Raw BASED ON WHAT is what I want to know. There's no match last year that puts Sonic even close to that, no matter how you twist the stats.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2008 8:46:30 PM | message detail
what are these arguments

Bring on Auron > Sephiroth I say
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/11/2008 8:46:43 PM | message detail
Dante 2006 is behind Solid **** he's going to look better than expected.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 243/352 Today's Match: Master Chief > Kirby
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 8:47:16 PM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | #425
Once again, if you're going to argue Kirby SFFing Sonic, you've also got to account for Sephy SFFing Dante.



I don't see how a JRPG character will SFF an action character as much as 2 platformer characters both in Brawl would SFF eachother.
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BDawg | Posted 11/11/2008 8:47:17 PM | message detail
Eh, Sonic at least beat everybody he was supposed to last year (lol block).
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2008 8:47:26 PM | message detail
Raw BASED ON WHAT is what I want to know. There's no match last year that puts Sonic even close to that, no matter how you twist the stats.

Sonic's final performance on L-Block. L is WAY above BL based on the contest finals.
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trannyscience | Posted 11/11/2008 8:47:52 PM | message detail
that'd be because Sonic is based on L-Block which beat Link, and Dante is on Pikachu which had Luigi in the poll.

but uh why are we arguing fourways with stats
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ZFS | Posted 11/11/2008 8:47:59 PM | message detail
Snake (2007c) VS Cloud (2007c)

Snake has a strength of 45.41.
Cloud has a strength of 51.90.

Cloud wins with 56.25% of the vote!
A win of 24,429 with 195,360 total votes cast.


snake > cloud in the semis confirmed

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Gaddswell | Posted 11/11/2008 8:48:11 PM | message detail

MyWorldIsCrono (#102)
Dante (2006c) VS Sonic (2006c)

Dante has a strength of 36.43.
Sonic has a strength of 38.70.

Sonic wins with 52.93% of the vote!
A win of 7,861 with 134,011 total votes cast.


I know lol xstats and all, but Sonic has dropped since the last 1v1 contest, and Dante has stayed on strong. Throw Kirby in there to SFF Sonic...



Those Dante numbers are behind a Yoshi that got 43% on 2k6 Snake in the sprite round.
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Kullstrom | Posted 11/11/2008 8:48:31 PM | message detail
Sonic finished closer to L-Block in his final match than anyone else other than Link.
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Japago | Posted 11/11/2008 8:48:56 PM | message detail
I think the best way of gauging Dante in comparison to the near elite is his 2005 match with Vincent. I think it went 54-46. Dante might be stronger since then, but I think Auron might be stronger than that Vincent as well. Either that or Sonic dropped off big time. There is a shot, but not a really great one.

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Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2008 8:49:21 PM | message detail
the arguments and x-stats abuse on this page make me cry
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hmm
well then
BDawg | Posted 11/11/2008 8:50:48 PM | message detail
More x-stats bring out the Pika>Link.
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Should I start running now?
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2008 8:51:01 PM | message detail
Eh, Sonic at least beat everybody he was supposed to last year (lol block).

Only because Sora and Snake killed Squall's support - otherwise you'd have seen a performance from him closer to Auron's last round.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 8:51:02 PM | message detail

From: Japago | #436
I think the best way of gauging Dante in comparison to the near elite is his 2005 match with Vincent. I think it went 54-46. Dante might be stronger since then, but I think Auron might be stronger than that Vincent as well. Either that or Sonic dropped off big time. There is a shot, but not a really great one.



DMC4 has come out since and Dante has been exposed to Xbox userbase as well through that.
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Kullstrom | Posted 11/11/2008 8:52:52 PM | message detail
Sonic characters have just as bad a history at underperforming against Snake as Squall does.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2008 8:54:30 PM | message detail
Sonic characters have just as bad a history at underperforming against Snake as Squall does.

...

...what
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/11/2008 8:54:53 PM | message detail
Sonic characters have just as bad a history at underperforming against Snake as Squall does.

This. Knuckles got stuck facing Snake in 3 consecutive contests.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
trannyscience | Posted 11/11/2008 8:55:22 PM | message detail
Smurf stats aw yeah
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xyzzy
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/11/2008 8:55:30 PM | message detail
*in the second round
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
ZFS | Posted 11/11/2008 8:55:31 PM | message detail
smurf'd

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Lopen | Posted 11/11/2008 8:56:12 PM | message detail
Ah... that's... kinda dumb, really. How has Leonhart not whored out the raw Squall value, that's what I want to know.

Squall (2007c raw) VS Samus (2007c)

Squall has a strength of 49.76.
Samus has a strength of 41.23.

Squall wins with 58.57% of the vote!
A win of 25,669 with 149,743 total votes cast.

That sells itself, man.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe
trannyscience | Posted 11/11/2008 9:00:06 PM | message detail
time for Sonic to make Sephiroth look bad for a few minutes
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Majin Lou | Posted 11/11/2008 9:00:48 PM | message detail
Late poll is late.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 9:00:49 PM | message detail
so... wheres the match?
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