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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 628

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 9:32:21 AM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #200
Leon impressed last round against Dante so I thought things were looking up for him, but now he's back to losing against him just as badly as he did last year. Maybe even worse by the end of the day. Sucks



I'm thinking its because maybe people realize if they like both characters to vote for Dante since Leon doesn't stand a chance here?
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Calintares | Posted 11/11/2008 9:32:39 AM | message detail
The biggest drop we have ever seen is the L-block.

the block went from something like 65% to maybe 30%

but maybe that don't count, as the block is a joke character that defies the rules of transcendence
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 9:33:32 AM | message detail

From: Calintares | #202
The biggest drop we have ever seen is the L-block.

the block went from something like 65% to maybe 30%

but maybe that don't count, as the block is a joke character that defies the rules of transcendence



I don't really count joke characters because Block is only as strong as his competition... But of legit characters, I can't think of any that went from being within 2% of Solid Snake to this.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2008 9:40:50 AM | message detail
Hey.

Who cares what you think?


That's our Bio
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/11/2008 9:55:16 AM | message detail
I'm thinking its because maybe people realize if they like both characters to vote for Dante since Leon doesn't stand a chance here?

Are voters that aware of the contest to realize that both of their favourite characters may lose and switch votes? Also if the voters are that aware then they would know that the top 2 advance and since Dante was only behind MC at the start of the poll they might as well back Leon so he can so better.
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Character Battle 2008: Points 243/352 Today's Match: Master Chief > Kirby
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 9:59:05 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #205
I'm thinking its because maybe people realize if they like both characters to vote for Dante since Leon doesn't stand a chance here?

Are voters that aware of the contest to realize that both of their favourite characters may lose and switch votes? Also if the voters are that aware then they would know that the top 2 advance and since Dante was only behind MC at the start of the poll they might as well back Leon so he can so better.



I'd say all the anti voting of the block shows that many voters are aware of the contest and previous results
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The Mana Sword | Posted 11/11/2008 10:00:40 AM | message detail
Well, so much for my bracket.

Damn you Lopen.
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BDawg | Posted 11/11/2008 10:02:01 AM | message detail
It's clear all the federal employees who had the day off overwhelmingly favored Kirby and Dante.
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jonthomson | Posted 11/11/2008 10:05:26 AM | message detail
yay kirby
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 10:07:57 AM | message detail

From: jonthomson | #209
yay kirby



Hey weren't you a mod?
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transience | Posted 11/11/2008 10:18:00 AM | message detail
Chief bomb woo

I'll go ahead and say that 2007 was something weird as hell for Chief. I don't think it was format, it was just some weird massive hype/release boost that absolutely vanished this year. this is more in line with a guy who went even with Sub-Zero.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/11/2008 10:19:48 AM | message detail
Yeah, if it was mainly the format, he'd still have to be doing better than this. Last year is now looking like an example of what millions of dollars in advertising will do for a character.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2008 10:20:15 AM | message detail
See, people? If last year had been 1v1, Chief could've gone on a Cinderella run that could have rivaled L-Block's in blindsiding us!

(and flopped harder than a Magus/Frog/Bowser smoothie this year)
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/11/2008 10:20:39 AM | message detail
Seeing MC no longer be particularly good in this format makes me suspect Sonic Team may have lost a lot of one-on-one power instead of just bombing in this format. =/
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2008 10:22:46 AM | message detail
I was just thinking that as well too, HaRR, but I'll withhold judgment until tomorrow. This match will probably be the best Sonic will ever look in this contest.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 11/11/2008 10:34:05 AM | message detail
Time for MC to pull the biggest comeback in Contest history! Whooo!

...right guys? Guys!?

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2008 10:34:30 AM | message detail
There was absolutely no indication that Chief would have dropped so far off the map since last year or that Dante was as unaffected by SFF as we see now.

I've been saying for months that Chief would be down to his pre-2007 levels, or at best, somewhere between where he was last year and where he's always been. I still figured that would be enough to beat Kirby though...
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The Mana Sword | Posted 11/11/2008 10:34:42 AM | message detail
I believe.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 10:38:14 AM | message detail
Kirby reminds me of the 2007 Pikachu. Exploiting lots of LFF and SFF to look really good and go far
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edwardsdv | Posted 11/11/2008 11:17:55 AM | message detail
Kirby reminds me of earlier incarnations of sonic.

He has all the same strengths, but unlike sonic, continues to release quality games and as such, his power is either staying steady or even slightly increasing while sonics is in a slow decline.

Sonic may win tomorrow due to an SFF fest, but next rounds match could be interesting as Sonic hasnt faced a character like kirby in a bit.

Which could spell good news for Dante but who knows with sephiroth in the match, anything could happen ( well except Kirby>Sonic advancing).
BDawg | Posted 11/11/2008 11:35:21 AM | message detail
I can concede Sonic may have lost a step besides just format. But some people are talking like Sonic is suddenly a midcarder or something. I refuse to believe the bag didn't have some effect on him. It's just too hard to believe he can go from beating a guy (Crono) that beat Auron 54-46 to losing that badly in two years. It's not like he had some huge hype train rolling (lol Chief) and then came back to earth. He's had mediocre to bad releases the entire time this contest has existed and it never seemed to matter much. Yeah you can say Smash deboost or whatever but that doesn't have anything to do with 2006. I guess in conclusion my points are 1) no SFFed Auron is not gonna beat Sonic (he is not weaker than Ryu for pete's sake) and 2) Kirby is not gonna suddenly beat/SFF Sonic to oblivion.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/11/2008 11:36:58 AM | message detail
SONIC IS WHO WE THOUGHT HE WAS

AND THAT'S WHY WE TOOK THE DAMN FIELD
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 11/11/2008 11:50:23 AM | message detail
How in the HELL is Kirby doing so well.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/11/2008 11:50:35 AM | message detail
Sonic should look impressive tomorrow. I really doubt Auron has a chance to beat him again, considering Ryu was able to beat an SFF'd Auron comfortably last year. Sure, Cloud is better than Sephiroth at SFF, but Sonic should be much stronger than Ryu.

Chief has done better during the DSV than I thought he would- we may start seeing some fireworks as the ASV starts soon. Dante's lead is way too big for Chief to actually come back, of course, but he will probably cut a lot of votes off that lead over the next 9 hours (MC's ASV sort of rolls right on into the second night vote without weakening much).
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/11/2008 11:52:17 AM | message detail
MC almost cut Kirby in that update.
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hailEC | Posted 11/11/2008 11:52:21 AM | message detail
Is anyone really arguing against a 3-way fanbase split here? STF is very real, and probably the most important thing to look at when talking about 4-ways (which really sucks because one stupid 1st round match can end up completely throwing off an entire division or worse).

In 1v1's I wouldn't expect any significant SFF between any of these characters, but when you have 3 characters who appeal to the same demographic, the one who likes cool designed badasses, and Kirby is your other option, Kirby's going to look amazing.

I honestly think Dante would destroy Kirby 1v1 this year, and this isn't some revisionist history either. I've thought Kirby > Dante in this match ever since we knew who was moving on last round.
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hailEC | Posted 11/11/2008 11:53:04 AM | message detail
Also as much as I'd love to see it happen, there's no chance in hell Auron beats Sonic tomorrow. I'd bet my life on it.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 11:53:35 AM | message detail
Lets get this under 1k chief
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/11/2008 11:53:58 AM | message detail
Well Sonic is the "odd ball" in tomorrow's match so he should do well.
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Character Battle 2008: Points 243/352 Today's Match: Master Chief > Kirby
Big Bob | Posted 11/11/2008 11:54:46 AM | message detail
First you say Sandbag had an effect on him, then you deny that Kirby will affect Sonic?
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 11:55:30 AM | message detail

From: Big Bob | #230
First you say Sandbag had an effect on him, then you deny that Kirby will affect Sonic?



Kirby and Sonic will SFF hard. Both have significant strength and I think should make Dante be able to fight for 2nd.
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hailEC | Posted 11/11/2008 11:55:44 AM | message detail
The only chance Auron has is that while Kratos is a badass just like him and Seph, the RPG fanbase is pretty different from the action fanbase. Today we have three gun wielding action badasses.

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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 11/11/2008 11:56:12 AM | message detail
BTW, I believe the Brawl deboost is a myth and all the newcomers that came in the contest such as Lucario, Diddy Kong, Dedede and the like would have done terrible regardless.
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hailEC | Posted 11/11/2008 11:57:13 AM | message detail
joke post?
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/11/2008 11:57:19 AM | message detail
It begins (but is probably not going to happen).

Chief's quota to catch up to Dante: 30.39 votes/update.
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BDawg | Posted 11/11/2008 11:59:13 AM | message detail
I guess my point was Kirby wasn't gonna take advantage of SFF over Sonic, yeah they're probably gonna overlap.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/11/2008 11:59:13 AM | message detail
While I don't blame Brawl, the site's demographics have changed compare to last year and thus so have character's strength. Look at 2003 and 2005.
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Character Battle 2008: Points 243/352 Today's Match: Master Chief > Kirby
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 11/11/2008 12:00:40 PM | message detail
While I don't blame Brawl, the site's demographics have changed compare to last year and thus so have character's strength. Look at 2003 and 2005.

That's my point. You can't put the blame on Brawl. It's just a shift in what kind of games and characters the newer frequenters of the site care about.
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edwardsdv | Posted 11/11/2008 12:02:39 PM | message detail
Tomorrow's match should be interesting at the very least. I have no clue whether or not sandbag hurt sonic or not.

My gut feeling is that Sandbag cannot have hurt Sonic that much unless sonic is Ness-like in his dependence on SSBB, which simply isn't the case. And if it is, then Sonic weakened a lot more than we thought.

He will stick out like a sore thumb tomorrow in an SFF-fest but I still maintain it'll be fun to watch.

BTW, about how much of a boost do you figure Crisis core gave Sephiroth?
charmander6000 | Posted 11/11/2008 12:02:52 PM | message detail
Next update Dante/MC will be closer than Kirby/Dante.
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Character Battle 2008: Points 243/352 Today's Match: Master Chief > Kirby
red sox 777 | Posted 11/11/2008 12:03:06 PM | message detail
As much as I like using the term "Brawl Deboost" (Melee >>>>> Brawl), I don't think anyone is seriously crediting Brawl the game for the Deboost- the dropoff in hype from the game finally coming out, maybe, but not the game itself.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2008 12:03:15 PM | message detail
I agree that Sonic and Kirby could have some overlap, however if you believe that then Dante and Sephiroth also have some overlap.

Tomorrow's match should be Sonic's best in the contest, no character that could hold him back and the other three are pretty similar.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 11/11/2008 12:05:11 PM | message detail
As much as I like using the term "Brawl Deboost" (Melee >>>>> Brawl), I don't think anyone is seriously crediting Brawl the game for the Deboost- the dropoff in hype from the game finally coming out, maybe, but not the game itself.

Apparently Leonhart is :/
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/11/2008 12:05:28 PM | message detail
Yeah, I wouldn't expect much more overlap between Sonic and Kirby than between Sephiroth and Dante. Link and FFVII have huge amounts of overlap with everything.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 12:06:00 PM | message detail
Chief is doing like NOTHING with the early asv

pathetic chief is pathetic
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 11/11/2008 12:07:21 PM | message detail
I'm gonna laugh if Kratos somehow manages to sneak in second place tomorrow. It'd be outrageous.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 12:08:32 PM | message detail

From: Masato_Tanaka | #246
I'm gonna laugh if Kratos somehow manages to sneak in second place tomorrow. It'd be outrageous.



That would be epic. Kratos is one of the best characters in the contest so he deserves it!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/11/2008 12:09:14 PM | message detail
As outrageous as it is impossible.
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transience | Posted 11/11/2008 12:11:26 PM | message detail
Kratos has a better chance than Auron, I'll say that much.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2008 12:13:43 PM | message detail
People are seriously entertaining the idea of Dante sneaking into second next round with the original silver-haired badass breathing down his neck? Sonic could have Knuckles tagging along in that match and I'd probably still bet on the hedgehog.
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