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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 628

KamikazePotato | Posted 11/11/2008 3:15:55 AM | message detail
Yeah, Dante's got this. He's decent with the day vote.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
__hiei__ | Posted 11/11/2008 3:17:30 AM | message detail
Dante > kirby is more likely than master chief advancing.
satai_delenn | Posted 11/11/2008 4:38:58 AM | message detail
2000 vote barrier = activated!

Oh, sweet glorious night vote. You were there for me.
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Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!
greatone10 | Posted 11/11/2008 5:01:45 AM | message detail
I wonder how this match will go trend wise seeing as though it's an American holiday.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/11/2008 5:33:39 AM | message detail
Huzzah RallyFAQs!

Seriously though, great show by Kirby and Dante. We still need a match with a Kirby sprite just to see if it helps him any. Plus, it's a great sprite anyway! Kirby's been ripped off when it comes to the sprite round! Got moved to the 4th round in 2005, done away with completely here.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/11/2008 5:34:20 AM | message detail
Oh, and no one gets off for Veteran's Day in America, as far as I know. Memorial Day is bigger here than that.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/11/2008 5:37:01 AM | message detail
From: LeonhartFour
Oh, and no one gets off for Veteran's Day in America

Wrong, lol
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/11/2008 5:40:37 AM | message detail
I never did, but seems like people get more days off than I did in school, so...
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/11/2008 5:47:17 AM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Squall | Sora | Cloud | Mewtwo
EBV | 16.20% | 16.60% | 36.37% | 30.82% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 17.04% | 15.39% | 40.85% | 26.72% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 18.34% | 14.01% | 44.96% | 22.68% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 17.19% | 15.52% | 44.51% | 22.78% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 17.06% | 14.27% | 46.32% | 22.36% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 14.73% | 17.69% | 44.29% | 23.28% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 15.41% | 16.00% | 46.51% | 22.08% | (22:00-24:00)

Nice board vote for Mewtwo, as usual, and a bad one for Cloud (relatively), as usual. Great ASV for Sora, as usual. Mewtwo's pretty consistent the rest of the match after the Power Hour. Squall struggles in the latter half of the match.

Yesterday's stats:

Cloud Strife – 50.00%
Mewtwo – 34.12%
Squall Leonhart – 26.81%
Sora – 26.03%

Division 6 Stats

Cloud Strife – 50.00%
Squall Leonhart – 26.81%
Sora – 26.03%
Mewtwo – 24.02%
Midna – 23.20%
Yoshi – 22.75%
Fox McCloud – 22.61%
Pac-Man – 20.08%
Chris Redfield – 19.55%
Miles Edgeworth – 17.03%
Ness – 14.62%
CATS – 13.56%
Travis Touchdown – 12.53%
Axel Steel – 11.22%
Tim – 7.42%
Nathan Drake – 7.09%

I gave Mewtwo his round 2 value on Cloud here because it's pretty obvious he was benefiting from triple Square SFF, far more so than any Nintendo LFF he may have had with Midna last round. Due to having no fixed point of reference by which to adjust Squall's half of the division, this is what you get. Looks like Squall could've still advanced had it been Yoshi/Mewtwo instead, but that's just random speculation at this point. These stats are pretty much worthless.

Division 6 Raw Stats

Cloud Strife – 50.00%
Mewtwo – 34.12%
Midna – 32.95%
Pac-Man – 28.52%
Squall Leonhart – 26.81%
Sora – 26.03%
Yoshi – 22.75%
Fox McCloud – 22.61%
Ness – 20.77%
Chris Redfield – 19.55%
Travis Touchdown – 17.80%
Miles Edgeworth – 17.03%
CATS – 13.56%
Axel Steel – 11.22%
Tim – 7.42%
Nathan Drake – 7.09%

The only difference here is that I gave Mewtwo the value he got straight up on Cloud in round 3, which brings a few characters up quite a bit.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
charmander6000 | Posted 11/11/2008 6:01:14 AM | message detail
Kirby?Anyway yesterday only 2,8% had Mewtwo advancing?How then he advanced?Or because most people don't make brackets so it doesn't matter anyway?

It's 2.8% of the brackets, though I can see people making the bracket based on strength rather than expecting LFF.

My younger brother owned me in this division, I may have had Pac-Man > Ness, but he had Squall > Sora and Cloud > Mewtwo. I taught him the basics, LFF and who's the favourite in each match. He also made choices like Crono > Ike in division 4 so I guess it all equals out.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 243/352 Today's Match: Master Chief > Kirby
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/11/2008 6:03:33 AM | message detail
From: charmander6000
He also made choices like Crono > Ike in division 4

^****ing 5
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
RockMFR 5 | Posted 11/11/2008 6:48:14 AM | message detail
Wow, I thought Dante would build maybe an 800 vote lead overnight, but not 1600!
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Steiner | Posted 11/11/2008 7:15:42 AM | message detail
how's this prediction

link > zack
samus > vincent
cloud > snake
sephiroth > sonic

vincent > zack
cloud > sephiroth

cloud > zack

looks good let's do this
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SAVE_US_CJC
Master Moltar | Posted 11/11/2008 7:20:01 AM | message detail
yeahhh kirby's still over 30%

Dante has second locked up. Poor Chief couldn't do anything at night or in the morning. The ASV won't be enough to cut down a 3000 vote lead.

Train of believe and GAME FUEL has been derailed =(
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hmm
well then
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/11/2008 7:20:24 AM | message detail
Good work by Dante, he should certainly be safe here.
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Mustache...and green...
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/11/2008 7:36:05 AM | message detail
If Dante loses at this point, it'd be the shocker of the contest. He has a really good day vote.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/11/2008 7:37:55 AM | message detail
Speaking of shockers, Squall beating Sora wasn't, and anyone saying it was an illogical pick doesn't understand the Square pecking order. Sora having enough fans to pick him over the two most popular Final Fantasy mains so that he beats Squall? I don't think so. Close, but not quite.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
draarrowgant | Posted 11/11/2008 7:47:45 AM | message detail
I really don't think anyone has this locked up. It is still too early to call. I have seen mixed opinions on the ASV and I honestly can say I understand it going either way. Kids these days LOVE Halo. I think ASV will be something like 30%, 30%, 25%, 15% for Kirby/MC/Dante/Leon respectively. What do you call a demographic SFF- DSFF?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/11/2008 7:51:02 AM | message detail
If anything, it'd be something like 27-27-27-19. Master Chief isn't going to start getting 30% consistently.

And Dante's going to be way over 3000 votes over MC by the time the ASV comes around. He's not bad enough with the day vote to lose that one.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
charmander6000 | Posted 11/11/2008 7:52:32 AM | message detail
Actually I don't think MC is going to get that huge of a shift, all four of these characters are at least half decent in the day.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 243/352 Today's Match: Master Chief > Kirby
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/11/2008 7:55:15 AM | message detail
Leon is easily the worst of the four. If anyone suffers from the ASV, it'll be him. Everyone else should be fine. 27% is the best case scenario I can imagine for the Chief.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
red sox 777 | Posted 11/11/2008 8:01:27 AM | message detail
Last time we had a match on Veterans' Day was....Crono vs. Sonic (another Crono match!). The day vote that day looked a bit diluted: Sonic gained over 1000 votes on Crono during school hours, and didn't throttle him during the ASV as badly as the DSV performance would have implied, probably. Either way Dante is too far up: he has another 3 hours to gain, and he should be well over 3000 by then.
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Crono's quest to beat Link:
3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/11/2008 8:02:45 AM | message detail
Well, at least I was right about Dante > Chief. Damn you you stupid pink ball.

Actually, damn you Riku for being so terrible and letting this happen.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/11/2008 8:04:18 AM | message detail
Nothing wrong with Kirby getting to the Quarterfinals! It's long overdue!

So I get...two of my top 10 favorite characters in the Quarterfinals instead of just one! Huzzah!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/11/2008 8:05:44 AM | message detail
Wow, Chief is terrible. Dante would rail him so hard in a 1v1.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/11/2008 8:09:26 AM | message detail
Whyo do people constantly overrate Master Chief....? Do they even learn?
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/11/2008 8:10:33 AM | message detail
Wow, Chief is terrible. Dante would rail him so hard in a 1v1.

Since when was this questionable? The only reason people thought Chief had a chance was because he was supposedly a beast in this format. This is still the guy who lost to Sub-Zero.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/11/2008 8:10:57 AM | message detail
From: Fayt_Esteed
Whyo do people constantly overrate Master Chief....? Do they even learn?

There was absolutely no indication that Chief would have dropped so far off the map since last year or that Dante was as unaffected by SFF as we see now.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
charmander6000 | Posted 11/11/2008 8:11:42 AM | message detail
Whyo do people constantly overrate Master Chief....? Do they even learn?

Chief defeated Dante rather easily last year, twice. Of course after watching him in round 2 this result was expected.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 243/352 Today's Match: Master Chief > Kirby
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/11/2008 8:12:05 AM | message detail
Not to mention he couldn't even get 53% on some dude named Felix. And needing the greatest comeback of all time to beat Donkey Kong.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/11/2008 8:14:25 AM | message detail
Since when was this questionable?

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2921&num=4

That doesn't make things questionable to you? Not even a tiny little question? Maybe a thought? A glimmer of uncertainty? A microscopic nugget of doubt swirling in a tornado of confidence?

NO OF COURSE NOT DANTA
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/11/2008 8:14:47 AM | message detail
Keep in mind, Pikachu has similar problems...
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/11/2008 8:16:16 AM | message detail
Like I said, the ONLY reason people picked Master Chief to beat Dante was the format, which he was supposedly deadly in, for whatever reason you want to think. It was a format advantage only. I'm not even sure MC beats Yuna one-on-one, to be honest with you.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/11/2008 8:17:33 AM | message detail
Please. I'd pick Yuna, hell, TIDUS, to maim Chief one on one.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/11/2008 8:17:38 AM | message detail
Pikachu vs. Master Chief one-on-one: GO!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/11/2008 8:21:06 AM | message detail
I'd take Yuna over Chief now. Hell, I'd take anyone with some decent pop over Chief, as it seems like a damn good upset possibility ever year (Frog, DK, Sub-Zero... someone is just begging to join these guys). I may have actually taken Dante in a 1v1 format this year, but after what Chief did last year, how could such a match be so brashly decided? He beat Dante by almost 8000, lost to Snake by only 3500, and suddenly, a Dante/Chief match is unquestionable? Nah.
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Yoblazer: http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/3699/thegamefaqsticketxr8.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2008 8:21:11 AM | message detail
Oh Chief you're back to being the lovable loser we all know and love

Clearly this is his punishment for getting within 2% of Snake last year what was that
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/11/2008 8:23:17 AM | message detail
how could such a match be so brashly decided?

Because I was entirely convinced that the Chief's power was completely in the format, that's how. I always thought the Chief was still a midcarder one-on-one, and Dante has looked good in any format.

Time for a Dante/Yoshi rematch.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/11/2008 8:24:46 AM | message detail
From: LeonhartFour
Pikachu vs. Master Chief one-on-one: GO!

Pikachu, again, maims Chief.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2008 8:26:32 AM | message detail
Can anyone *not* pick Dante in a rematch with Yoshi? With DMC4 and the low probability of Yoshi not getting a pic advantage like this again: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/displayimage.php?album=8&pos=42 you'd pretty much have to take the dino out of fanboyism this time aroun.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/11/2008 8:27:25 AM | message detail
Not to mention the Brawl deboost. Besides, I need Dante to destroy Yoshi to make up for the abomination that was the stats topic that day!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Temporarily Sidetracked
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/11/2008 8:31:07 AM | message detail
Well, Yoshi has ALWAYS sucked in Smash Bros.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
charmander6000 | Posted 11/11/2008 8:34:18 AM | message detail
Yoshi > Dante because it feels right.

That logic worked for me two years ago.

>_>

Nah I'd probably switch.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 243/352 Today's Match: Master Chief > Kirby
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/11/2008 9:04:55 AM | message detail
Ugh, again, there's no such thing as a deboost. Just all of you getting your hopes up high again.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/11/2008 9:21:05 AM | message detail
Thanks Bio your assurances are invaluable let me assure you of that
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 9:22:17 AM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | #176
Whyo do people constantly overrate Master Chief....? Do they even learn?



Because this is the biggest single drop from one years to the next for any character.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/11/2008 9:23:12 AM | message detail
Ugh, again, there's no such thing as a deboost. Just all of you getting your hopes up high again.

I dunno if I'd call it a "deboost," but based on what we've seen, I'd wager on many Nintendo characters being at their weakest since 2005. It's not hard to see the reasoning (which has been explained numerous times) behind this. In 2007, the Nintendo base was energized. Brawl hype had Nintendo fans excited, and well-received hits sprinkled throughout the year, such as Prime 3 and Galaxy, kept the fans coming back. In 2008, Nintendo has only released two significant games (Brawl and Mario Kart Wii). One of these is completely casual-friendly, and the other one, the HYPED one, was largely seen as a disappointment among many. After Brawl was released, the hype and excitement that had gripped Nintendo fans for months vanished, and with no other games to care about, they stopped showing up. Compare that to the 360, which is riding a more powerful stream of price cuts and games, and the PS3, which finally started cooking with MGS4, and you can see why Nintendo would naturally have a smaller piece of the GameFAQs pie.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 9:24:54 AM | message detail
I've gotta say though... I'm liking Seph > Dante next round. Sonic and Kirby SHOULD hurt eachother quite a bit, and Dante is showing some damn good strength here. Imagine him without Leon there.
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Biolizard28 | Posted 11/11/2008 9:26:03 AM | message detail
From: Karma Hunter
Thanks Bio your assurances are invaluable let me assure you of that

Hey.

Who cares what you think?
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/11/2008 9:31:25 AM | message detail
Leon impressed last round against Dante so I thought things were looking up for him, but now he's back to losing against him just as badly as he did last year. Maybe even worse by the end of the day. Sucks
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