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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 628

Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2008 12:29:59 AM | message detail
Good point, but at this time Big Boss wasn't leading on MC, while Dante is already above 700 votes.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/11/2008 12:31:45 AM | message detail
Chief is just horrid at night. But even in his weakened high midcard state this year (and not the noble 9 strength he had last year), he can do beastly ASV vote. So Dante better get as big of a lead as he can
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transience | Posted 11/11/2008 12:34:00 AM | message detail
this should be close.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
paulg235 | Posted 11/11/2008 12:38:15 AM | message detail
I hope it's Kirby>Dante in the end. Master Cheif's day vote can actually propel him to second, but Kirby's in the equation so perhaps not enough.
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The Gamer In Me
transience | Posted 11/11/2008 12:39:43 AM | message detail
Kirby won't matter for trends.

but if Dante keeps gaining 50 votes an update, Chief won't have a prayer.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
transience | Posted 11/11/2008 12:40:25 AM | message detail
jeeze, he's losing consistent updates to Leon and Leon's not even going up.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2008 12:40:41 AM | message detail
It's true that MC can do miracles with the ASV, but it's more than 11 hours left until it starts and in the last 15 minutes Dante have increased the lead with 119 votes.

It seems that MC will have to break the succesful comeback record in order to advance.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
transience | Posted 11/11/2008 12:42:23 AM | message detail
well, we've got Sephiroth/Dante/Kirby/Sonic -- may the debate begin
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
__hiei__ | Posted 11/11/2008 12:46:27 AM | message detail
Sephiroth > Dante is very possible

if kirby hurts Sonic even a bit,Dante probably has this. he should already be on Sonic's level anyways.
transience | Posted 11/11/2008 12:49:35 AM | message detail
my opinion is that if you're gonna argue Kirby hurting Sonic, you have to argue Sephiroth hurting Dante.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2008 12:49:35 AM | message detail
well, we've got Sephiroth/Dante/Kirby/Sonic -- may the debate begin

Sephiroth > Sonic > Dante > Kirby. I don't see much to debate about that.

Unless Auron pulls it off tomorrow.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
transience | Posted 11/11/2008 12:50:30 AM | message detail
either way, now that we've got our quarters, let's predict this thing:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=46516611

this contest is over in a week, woo
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/11/2008 12:50:57 AM | message detail
Dante can conceivably reach the final match, if the stars align well enough.
edwardsdv | Posted 11/11/2008 12:51:19 AM | message detail
Im not willing to write off Kirby as getting by on SFF alone.

The pink ball is showing some legit strength. Enough perhaps to Challenge Sonic and beat Dante again next round and advance to the Elite 8.

Perhaps Kirby gained some strength over the off-season and simply underperformed round 2?

Kirby is a kiddy character and the morning and ASV have yet to come in. This could spell a big win for him.
transience | Posted 11/11/2008 12:52:55 AM | message detail
let's not drink the Kirby kool-aid too much -- he's not going to win this by a whole lot and he still struggled to beat Master Chief last round. Dante beating Sonic seems possible, but Kirby beating Sonic, I dunno.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
__hiei__ | Posted 11/11/2008 12:55:09 AM | message detail
it's very clear that Kirby is considerably weaker than Dante

he's only wining due to stand out like a sore thumb factor + SFF with Dante/Leon.
transience | Posted 11/11/2008 12:56:58 AM | message detail
Kirby being on Dante's level seems reasonable if you believe his normal base strength is just a little bit above Master Chief. that's where Dante is right now. I don't believe in that Dante/Leon stuff, just that he's benefitting from standing out here.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
ZFS | Posted 11/11/2008 12:58:56 AM | message detail
Whoa, Dante. He's up by nearly 1000 now? Yeah, I think he's got this easy.

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__hiei__ | Posted 11/11/2008 12:59:05 AM | message detail
how can you not believe?

they're the same kind of character from the same company,from two similar games of the same genre both of which appeal to the exact same type of gamer

i think it'd be hard to find a more perfect SFF scenario in the contest.
transience | Posted 11/11/2008 1:00:28 AM | message detail
'cause Riku didn't benefit. if that was true SFF then Riku would have scared the hell out of Leon.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
__hiei__ | Posted 11/11/2008 1:01:42 AM | message detail
not really

he didn't benefit much because Dante and Leon hurt each other equaly.they split votes and thus both had enough to advance.
edwardsdv | Posted 11/11/2008 1:01:55 AM | message detail
Why is kirby going to come down? Sure, MC has a good ASV , but so does kirby, doesn't he.

Dante ,as has been mentioned, is supposed to be pretty solid throughout. So why is Kirby winning right now? The bracket voters aren't with him and traditionally he shouldn't be doing this well this early on.

Something weird is going on with Kirby( struggling with MC last round and up 8 points on him now), but if it is legit strength( as I subscribe it is), why is it less conceivable that he could overcome (some) SFF with Sonic and with Sephiroth/ Dante LFF holding down Dante, advance behind Sephiroth?

Surely not a whole lot less believable than Dante doing the opposite and producing a Sephiroth>Dante thing.

I think it's far from a foregone conclusion that'll go something like this:

Sephiroth>Kirby>Dante>Sonic
ZFS | Posted 11/11/2008 1:02:52 AM | message detail
Enough perhaps to Challenge Sonic and beat Dante again next round and advance to the Elite 8.

I know everyone's down on Sonic after that pitiful display against Auron, but Kirby isn't putting up a Sonic challenging performance here. If anything, I'd expect Sonic/Kirby to hurt each other letting Dante slip by, but with Sephiroth there who knows. I think Sonic will be good so long as he doesn't fall apart tomorrow - that match couldn't have been better for him. We'll see how he does free of the 'Bag.

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__hiei__ | Posted 11/11/2008 1:03:50 AM | message detail
Something weird is going on with Kirby( struggling with MC last round and up 8 points on him now)

he stands out like a sore thum here

he looks completely out of place there so he's probably getting joke votes too.
MasterOfHunters | Posted 11/11/2008 1:03:50 AM | message detail
As I've mentioned before, DMC was in fact Resident Evil 4. Not to mention the demo included with PS2 version of Code Veronica got the hype rolling for DMC. Heck, Mikami and Kamiya simply took Leon and "upgraded" him into Dante. There couldn't be more obvious case of SFF except pairs actually appearing in same game.
transience | Posted 11/11/2008 1:04:40 AM | message detail
Why is kirby going to come down? Sure, MC has a good ASV , but so does kirby, doesn't he.

not like the Chief. Kirby's good, but so is Dante - Kirby's not going to rise too much. I doubt he finishes higher than he is now.


Something weird is going on with Kirby( struggling with MC last round and up 8 points on him now), but if it is legit strength( as I subscribe it is), why is it less conceivable that he could overcome (some) SFF with Sonic and with Sephiroth/ Dante LFF holding down Dante, advance behind Sephiroth?

'cause Sonic's just higher on the pecking order than Kirby is. if there's "SFF" there, Kirby's gonna be on the ass end of it. if there isn't, Sonic's just stronger than him.
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xyzzy
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2008 1:05:58 AM | message detail
The reason why Kirby is winning because he really stands out. He so cute ^_^, the others are not. Kirby eats his enemies, the other three use guns. Kirby is Nintendo (or HAL), the others are not even from Squaresoft.

I don't understand why I didn't put Kirby to advance in this match. Oh well then I would've picked MC > Kirby, and MC > Dante will give me more points, yay for this point system >_>

Oh and in this hour Dante have increased his lead with almost 400 votes, what a guy.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
transience | Posted 11/11/2008 1:06:51 AM | message detail
and if Auron was here, he would be absolutely dominating this pack. it'd be like the Bowser/Ryu/Auron match from last year. Sonic would be winning by more if he was in Kirby's spot too. Sonic looked bad there, but it wasn't miserable bad, and as ZFS said, he's free of the 'bag.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
edwardsdv | Posted 11/11/2008 1:07:20 AM | message detail
We are aso assuming Sonic manages to get by Auron.

SFF with Sephiroth and MAYBE Kratos( though I find this unlikely due to genre differences) may prevent this, but you never know.

Sonic looked bad last round against him and stick out lke a sore thumb factor may not be as prevalent in all pics due to the "new" sonic look and the outright recognizable-ness of Sephiroth, Auron and Kratos.

So we may be jumping the gun a bit. Maybe.
transience | Posted 11/11/2008 1:09:20 AM | message detail
Sonic doesn't even need to stick out to top Auron next round thanks to Sephiroth -- but if you want to go that route, Sonic's going to be the exact same as Kirby here, the iconic mascot up against three badass types. I think he'll end up closer to Sephiroth than to Auron.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/11/2008 1:11:09 AM | message detail
Aw yeah Leon cut 25 votes on MC!
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
transience | Posted 11/11/2008 1:11:43 AM | message detail
Master Chief would lose the night vote to Tim
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
transience | Posted 11/11/2008 1:12:20 AM | message detail
man, talk about a de-boost. by 5am, the lead on Chief is going to be bigger than the lead Kirby has on Dante.
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xyzzy
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ZFS | Posted 11/11/2008 1:12:23 AM | message detail
We are aso assuming Sonic manages to get by Auron.

For all that Sonic failed to do anything against Auron, he didn't do so poorly as to not be able to beat an SFF'd Auron. You've got a very similar situation like we have today - three badass characters and Sonic. Let's not undercut Sonic so much that we're talking about him not being able to compete with SFF'd Auron or Kratos - who did fine last round, but didn't put up the numbers to be in contention here. People are giving Auron a bit too much credit here - a Bag free Sonic and SFF'd Auron will be more than enough to turn the 5% difference Auron beat him by last round.

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edwardsdv | Posted 11/11/2008 1:17:36 AM | message detail
Eh. You're probably right.

I' m just saying, IF the 4 pack is Sephiroth, Dante, Auron, Kirby , then Kirby would stand a much greater chance of advancing than if it were Sonic.

And since that possiblity isn't ruled out it may be silly to talk of it as though it wee a foregone conclusion.( Heck it might be folly to assume its Dante and Kirby given how unpredictable the Chief can be)

That said, if sonic is still stronger than Kirby then yes Sonic will probably advance.

If Kirby has managed to gain enough strength to overtake the declining Hedgehog, then he could advance there as well.

The only situation in which I see Sephiroth>Dante is if Sonic and Kirby are about equal in terms of strength or if rSFF sets in,for either duo.
transience | Posted 11/11/2008 1:18:45 AM | message detail
oh, yeah, if this were Kratos instead of Sonic (not COMPLETELY impossible, just very improbable), I'd consider Kirby for that spot.

heh, Kirby and Kratos. sounds like last year before the Block came and did its thang.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
edwardsdv | Posted 11/11/2008 1:36:57 AM | message detail
Well, its 4:30 in PA and I have classes tommorow afternoon so I should get to sleep.

Here's to hoping this trend holds by the time I wake up.
Zenithian Legend | Posted 11/11/2008 1:39:18 AM | message detail
In the future I'll just disregard 2007, when picking any MC matches.
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/11/2008 1:55:25 AM | message detail
And Dante's lead on the Chief is now higher than Kirby's lead on Dante!
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__hiei__ | Posted 11/11/2008 2:41:27 AM | message detail
Dante is trying to win this match
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/11/2008 2:45:38 AM | message detail
What on ****ing earth is going on. I left with Chief in the lead and now this is happening?! Jesus Christ you had better demolish everything with the day vote, Chief. Good christ, you're a goddamn failure.
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__hiei__ | Posted 11/11/2008 2:47:15 AM | message detail
Chief is consistently losing to Leon now

lol
Gaddswell | Posted 11/11/2008 2:48:00 AM | message detail
Chief hasn't lead Dante since 20 minutes into the match!
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/11/2008 2:48:53 AM | message detail
How good is Dante's day vote? I know Leon's aint ****, but that's not important.

Kirby will likely detract from Chief a LITTLE bit, but Chief's day vote is good to the point where 3,000 isn't impossible against someone that isn't at least good with the day vote.
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ExThaNemesis is the man.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/11/2008 2:49:09 AM | message detail
Chief hasn't lead Dante since 20 minutes into the match!

I know, I left to play FFXI at 12:10!!
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ExThaNemesis is the man.
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__hiei__ | Posted 11/11/2008 2:50:34 AM | message detail
Dante has Cloud trends.he just keeps increasing as the match goes.

of course,his increasing is spread over the whole day,meaning his day vote isn't as strong as chief's.but it's still good;
Gaddswell | Posted 11/11/2008 2:51:21 AM | message detail
He isn't too bad with it. He pulled away from Leon in the day while Leon lead / stalled for the night last round.
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Iamthekuzalol | Posted 11/11/2008 3:09:02 AM | message detail
Aside from his abysmal Nintendo-power hour period, Dante is exceptionally strong with the night and day vote. If Dante can build a 2500-3000 votes before the after-school period, he is in a very safe position to advance.
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/11/2008 3:11:00 AM | message detail
Kirby?Anyway yesterday only 2,8% had Mewtwo advancing?How then he advanced?Or because most people don't make brackets so it doesn't matter anyway?
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/11/2008 3:14:10 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure a lot of folks had Yoshi advancing yesterday, and since he wasn't around, folks just voted for their favorite (or for the Nintendo option in a sea of Square).
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