GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 628
| Biolizard28 | Posted 11/10/2008 9:47:47 PM | message detail |
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This match... is about to get CRAZY! ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST! |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 11/10/2008 10:03:22 PM | message detail |
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--- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST! |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/10/2008 10:05:01 PM | message detail |
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bumping the stats topic really now --- CB7 Score: 260/352 http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg |
| edwardsdv | Posted 11/10/2008 10:10:10 PM | message detail |
| Well i will say this, the pink ball has come out to play tonight. With the kirbster's awesome day vote and asv, is there any question he'll run away with this one? |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/10/2008 10:14:10 PM | message detail |
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I agree with you... to a point. if we keep shrinking down the
fanbases, soon we'll have no legit match. and that may be true, but
when every single match is an exception, there is no rule and there is
no standard. It's not so much that than it is that the matches have far too often this year boiled down to fanbase splits than they have legitimate character strengths. This is the problem this year - it's 2k4 lite. The only difference is because of the format, stats don't really help either... so unpredictability is increased, but not much else is gained. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/10/2008 10:17:18 PM | message detail |
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It's not so much that than it is that the matches have far too often
this year boiled down to fanbase splits than they have legitimate
character strengths. This is the problem this year - it's 2k4 lite. I agree. This will end up being barely better than 2k4 (if at all). --- Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 11/10/2008 10:17:58 PM | message detail |
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Marth. Repeat that name with me. The dude got killed by
DK last year. I was genuinely surprised to see him be the favourite in
that match (naturally, I picked him for the reasons you stated). And,
yeah, when he gets into an LFF situation, that doesn't work out, as it
didn't in the next round. LFF proved much stronger than I thought, both
inside and outside Nintendo. And I think you're being too harsh on the Duke. He beat a certain Mr. Freeman, who went on to beat Scorpion, plus a rather hyped Altair. He's not a complete pushover. Marth did quite well in that match. The only Nintendo character that really has no excuse is Yoshi, who looked awful in that first round match. Pretty much everybody else got put in an LFF situation and did awful because of it. If this current match is an LFF match and you get to make excuses because of it, then I don't see how you can argue this point. The last five days has seen four great Nintendo performances (Kirby, Mewtwo, Pikachu going nuts, Samus), and there wasn't any Nintendo in the other match. --- Mustache...and green... |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/10/2008 10:19:26 PM | message detail |
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2k4 had bad SFF matches. this has had, for the most part, good ones --
even where there's somebody being hampered it's usually debatable --
see yesterday, or see Tifa/Kratos (I thought this was a dumb one to
argue but I digress), or see Mario's entire path. anyway, the longer this goes the more I like Chief. Dante's not doing all that great here. --- xyzzy http://isobamapresident.com/ |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/10/2008 10:20:48 PM | message detail |
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Tran, it doesn't change the fact that this contest is 2004 all over again. --- Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/10/2008 10:20:52 PM | message detail |
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BIG spike there for Dante. I'm not feeling good about this --- http://news.cnet.com/i/bto/20071030/cube-2_540x618.jpg http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/10/2008 10:20:55 PM | message detail |
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and as I say that we get a 50 vote spike dammit albion stop rallying for dante --- xyzzy http://isobamapresident.com/ |
| Gaddswell | Posted 11/10/2008 10:21:48 PM | message detail |
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There we go Dante! --- http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8 |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/10/2008 10:21:49 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| Lopen | Posted 11/10/2008 10:22:29 PM | message detail |
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Dante stalled Kirby there Let's do this, Dante --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby. Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/10/2008 10:22:45 PM | message detail |
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Kirby only gains 5 on Dante.....Dante will get a cut in within the hour probably. --- Crono's quest to beat Mario: 5 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/10/2008 10:22:55 PM | message detail |
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From: Lopen | #014 traiter <.< --- http://news.cnet.com/i/bto/20071030/cube-2_540x618.jpg http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/10/2008 10:23:59 PM | message detail |
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I'm trying something to see if I can help Chief hold off Dante this next update. --- http://news.cnet.com/i/bto/20071030/cube-2_540x618.jpg http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/10/2008 10:23:59 PM | message detail |
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When you're splitting your fanbase with Squall and Sora, that's a MASSIVE difference from splitting it with Jinjo and Lucas.
Yes, Cloud is an entirely different monster from Kirby, but we never
asked Jinjo or Lucas to beat Big Boss - we merely asked Kirby not to
get embarrassed by him. Just because Luigi got mixed in with Bowser and Luigi in later rounds doesn't mean he has an excuse for that first round debacle. Falco had zero excuses in Round 2 and still got annihilated by no-face Scorpion and Gordon Freeman. Donkey Kong looked like pure, unadulterated fodder in his match. I'm not knocking all Nintendo - as you've said, Samus has looked as great as she has since, well, 2004 (which leads me to believe her fortunes are not as tied to Nintendo as one might think, looking at that year). --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| Xcarvenger | Posted 11/10/2008 10:24:46 PM | message detail |
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Dante's weakest hour is the power hour... yeah, MC isn't coming back --- Kweh! Kweh!!! --> http://backloggery.com/main.php?user=xcarvenger For all your board 8 needs: www.board8.wikia.com |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/10/2008 10:25:05 PM | message detail |
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I don't know why, but I want to see what ertyu does if Dante comes back to win by some miracle. Let's do this, Dante! --- ~War~ The Cream of Transexual Ex Girlfriend Fanboyism ~War~ |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/10/2008 10:26:51 PM | message detail |
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I'm not knocking all Nintendo - as you've said, Samus has looked as
great as she has since, well, 2004 (which leads me to believe her
fortunes are not as tied to Nintendo as one might think, looking at
that year). I was actually thinking this the other day.. Samus over Mario years are non-Nintendo years, and otherwise Mario seems to jump up the totem pole. pure speculation, of course. --- xyzzy http://isobamapresident.com/ |
| ffmasterjose | Posted 11/10/2008 10:27:21 PM | message detail |
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This entire division makes my head hurt. Kirby overperforming because of a fanbase split with Dante/Leon, as well as the Chief just being crap this year? Seems like the Nintendo de-boost didn't hurt the little guy at all....in fact he looks stronger 0_0 --- 263/352 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII NP: Master Chief > Dante | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0 |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/10/2008 10:27:33 PM | message detail |
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Oh btw, the update of the giant Dante spike in votes: 734 Last update: 629 votes kinda interesting --- http://news.cnet.com/i/bto/20071030/cube-2_540x618.jpg http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/10/2008 10:28:21 PM | message detail |
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Mario vs Samus II ACCOUNT BET EDITION let's do this (I assume you have Samus <____<) --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/10/2008 10:29:04 PM | message detail |
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I may be many things but I am not a complete moron dammit --- xyzzy http://isobamapresident.com/ |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 11/10/2008 10:29:10 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, but, Falco. We didn't really expect
him to compete, right? Maybe that changed after the first round, but
we've been seeing 2nd place guys overperform left and right where first
place was obvious (ie, Noble Nine). I'll give you that DK looked
terrible as well, but, hey, you'll grant me that a platforming
character like Tails shares a fanbase with him, yes? And Kirby got embarrassed by someone that looked like Snake, both pictorally and percentage-wise. Take that pretty picture and Nintendo LFF away and add in some nice Metal Gear LFF and suddenly Kirby's looking pretty awesome. 4-ways depend a lot on circumstances, and while Naked Snake showing up might have been unexpected it certainly can't be ignored. --- Mustache...and green... |
| __hiei__ | Posted 11/10/2008 10:29:16 PM | message detail |
| too bad Mario vs Samus will be a distant fight for third no matter who advances between Crono and Vincent. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/10/2008 10:29:46 PM | message detail |
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I was actually thinking this the other day.. Samus over Mario years
are non-Nintendo years, and otherwise Mario seems to jump up the totem
pole. Yes, I agree completely. As for Nintendo, it's been Mario and pure Smash characters (the ones who did best with the Boost) who've been disappointing. Link, Samus, and the Pokemon have looked fine. --- Crono's quest to beat Mario: 5 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| Gaddswell | Posted 11/10/2008 10:30:06 PM | message detail |
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MyWorldIsCrono (#023) Just look at Dante's gains... >_< 174 -> 217 -> 162 --- http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8 |
| ZFS | Posted 11/10/2008 10:30:41 PM | message detail |
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fight for third mario's coming in second --- http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif http://i34.tinypic.com/15wdsu0.gif |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/10/2008 10:30:54 PM | message detail |
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Seems what I did 2 updates ago is helping Chief keep up a tiny bit. --- http://news.cnet.com/i/bto/20071030/cube-2_540x618.jpg http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/10/2008 10:30:55 PM | message detail |
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the only problem with that is that Kirby was THE argument FOR The
Boost. Tidus was the overwhelming favourite, remember, and then we
expected Bowser to rock Kirby. --- xyzzy http://isobamapresident.com/ |
| Thunder_Beaver | Posted 11/10/2008 10:31:47 PM | message detail |
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too bad Mario vs Samus will be a distant fight for third no matter who advances between Crono and Vincent. No --- I'm fighting for the rights of the fat beavers!!! |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 11/10/2008 10:32:52 PM | message detail |
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Hey, I had Kirby in that match! I never got the argument about Mega
Man/Tidus weirdness and if you take that match at face value, and
realize that Kirby was behind Cloud/Squall, you arrive at Kirby over
Tidus pretty quickly. --- Mustache...and green... |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/10/2008 10:33:18 PM | message detail |
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Excellent update there for Chief and Dante: Kirby only gains 6 on Dante, and 11 on Chief. Projections based on Crono/Vincent: Dante beats Kirby with 51.69% Chief beats Kirby with 50.22% --- Crono's quest to beat Mario: 5 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/10/2008 10:33:28 PM | message detail |
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What? You seriously believe that Link won't hurt Samus and Mario? It's
hard to not see whoever wins out of Crono and Vincent moving on. --- Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/10/2008 10:33:58 PM | message detail |
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Kirby didn't look especially good last round. He barely escaped MC, who in turn did pitifully on Raiden and Kain
the round beforehand. He's looking better because of this badass
cluster****, but I really don't think anyone would argue that Old Man
BB and Toaster Raiden even compare to the Capcom Badass Duo in raw
strengths. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/10/2008 10:34:49 PM | message detail |
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the only problem with that is that Kirby was THE argument FOR The
Boost. Tidus was the overwhelming favourite, remember, and then we
expected Bowser to rock Kirby. For what it's worth, before the Boost, Kirby did 5% better against Squall than Luigi. After the Boost, Luigi beat Kirby with 52%. --- Crono's quest to beat Mario: 5 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| __hiei__ | Posted 11/10/2008 10:34:52 PM | message detail |
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yes anyone thinking Mario or Samus have any chance whatsoever on a match with triple nintendo SFF and LINK on it is just plain delusional Samus let Vincent get within 4% of her with only Ganondorf in the poll... |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/10/2008 10:36:56 PM | message detail |
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I don't know why you all are arguing so much though when that match is going to clearly be Link/Zack/Samus/Vincent I'll also accept Link/Zack/Samus/Crono as an alternate so we can see Black-Haired Cloud rise to meet his nemesis in the finals ^.^ --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| ZFS | Posted 11/10/2008 10:37:14 PM | message detail |
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Zack more like last place --- http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif http://i34.tinypic.com/15wdsu0.gif |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/10/2008 10:37:50 PM | message detail |
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You underestimate Zack- he would act as a Cloud proxy and SFF Vincent into oblivion! --- Crono's quest to beat Link: 3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/10/2008 10:37:50 PM | message detail |
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what the when did you betray the cause Aitch Emm --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| Lopen | Posted 11/10/2008 10:37:51 PM | message detail |
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Mario held up pretty admirably against Link in the four way he was with
him for last year. Mario's percentage against Seph, Link, and Vincent
beat Crono/Vincent's against Link/Zero. To count Mario out there is
kinda foolish. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby. Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe |
| ZFS | Posted 11/10/2008 10:38:43 PM | message detail |
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Link/Mario/MMX/Zack which of these does not belong okay maybe he beats x like liquid beat luigi --- http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif http://i34.tinypic.com/15wdsu0.gif |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/10/2008 10:40:44 PM | message detail |
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Chief cut Believe --- http://news.cnet.com/i/bto/20071030/cube-2_540x618.jpg http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/10/2008 10:41:02 PM | message detail |
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Dante stalls Kirby....Chief cuts Kirby! --- Crono's quest to beat Link: 3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| Lopen | Posted 11/10/2008 10:41:30 PM | message detail |
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Chief cuts Dante and Kirby at the same time. Damn that guy is hardcore. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby. Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/10/2008 10:42:43 PM | message detail |
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Yeah I just noticed is this match like some horrible orgy dream of Lopen's gone horribly wrong Is he even rooting for anyone --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/10/2008 10:45:30 PM | message detail |
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Alright, hopefully when I wake up, I'll see that Kirby has somehow
collapsed enough with the night vote to stay with Crono/Vincent trends.
Then it will be up to Chief to have such an awesome ASV that the huge
difference between Kirby and Crono's day votes is nullified! --- Crono's quest to beat Link: 3 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
