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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 627

Xcarvenger | Posted 11/10/2008 9:43:21 PM | message detail
looks like Brawl deboost is only effective for Round 1 and 2.

augh Cloud > Link train got derailed :(
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/10/2008 9:43:58 PM | message detail
MC isn't that bad at night. He's got the mature crowd to draw from. It's just that he's usually up against someone with an awesome night vote, which makes his ASV dominant by comparison.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/10/2008 9:44:23 PM | message detail
Only character really good at night here is Leon.. and hes a non factor.
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http://news.cnet.com/i/bto/20071030/cube-2_540x618.jpg
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
Dr_Football | Posted 11/10/2008 9:44:24 PM | message detail
So
Super Smash Brother Top Tier Boost confirmed?
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The University of Oklahoma: We'll win one again eventually. Boomer Sooner!
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/10/2008 9:44:41 PM | message detail
Isn't tomorrow a holiday for the US or is that only for Canada?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 243/352 Today's Match: Master Chief > Kirby
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/10/2008 9:45:02 PM | message detail
Then how did Diddy do so poorly?
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/10/2008 9:45:02 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #455
Isn't tomorrow a holiday for the US or is that only for Canada?



Not that I know of for US
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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/10/2008 9:45:09 PM | message detail
First of all, no.

Second of all, what are the odds that they wouldn't have had a link to the poll eventually, anyway?
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
red sox 777 | Posted 11/10/2008 9:45:34 PM | message detail
Crono finished at 48.58% on Vincent, so if Dante/Chief can make up the same amount of percentage as Vincent (ridiculous, I know), here are the current projections:

Dante ends with 50.80% on Kirby.
Chief ends with 50.35% on Kirby.
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Crono's quest to beat Mario:
5 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/10/2008 9:45:38 PM | message detail
Dayum, huge update there.
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http://news.cnet.com/i/bto/20071030/cube-2_540x618.jpg
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/10/2008 9:45:40 PM | message detail
Tomorrow is Rememberance day in Canada, but most schools don't have it off.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/10/2008 9:45:51 PM | message detail
someone find out what forum biolizard is rallying on
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CB7 Score: 260/352
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Xcarvenger | Posted 11/10/2008 9:45:53 PM | message detail
Only character really good at night here is Leon

I think you forgot Dante.
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Biolizard28 | Posted 11/10/2008 9:45:58 PM | message detail
Dante increases!
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
Gaddswell | Posted 11/10/2008 9:46:08 PM | message detail
Kirby only gained 20 votes on Dante there!

Maybe Dante takes first here at some point during the night.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8
ZFS | Posted 11/10/2008 9:46:56 PM | message detail
Crono finished at 48.58% on Vincent, so if Dante/Chief can make up the same amount of percentage as Vincent (ridiculous, I know), here are the current projections:

where did this come from

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http://i34.tinypic.com/15wdsu0.gif
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/10/2008 9:47:25 PM | message detail
I like how this contest has basically degraded to seeing who has less of a life between Albion and Biolizard.

I have to say that they've replaced Vlado and Inviso as my 2 least favourite posters on this board.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
trannyscience | Posted 11/10/2008 9:47:43 PM | message detail
don't you know that every single match relates to a Crono one in some way?

our resident Cronologist will convince you if not
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xyzzy
http://isobamapresident.com/
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/10/2008 9:47:45 PM | message detail
Then how did Diddy do so poorly?

Either SFF with Captain Falcon (and Kratos Aurion, to a lesser extent) or Diddy, like Lucario and Olimar, was a worthless sack of crap in the first place.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/10/2008 9:48:07 PM | message detail
I simply took the difference between Vincent's percentage on Crono at the 40 minute mark and the end, and added it to Dante and Chief's current percentages on Kirby.
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Crono's quest to beat Mario:
5 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 11/10/2008 9:48:08 PM | message detail
Veteran's Day in America, some schools have off, some don't.
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Codename=Cav
Your_God | Posted 11/10/2008 9:48:10 PM | message detail
Veteran's day tomorrow in the U.S. Basically the same thing in both countries just different names.
Lopen | Posted 11/10/2008 9:48:12 PM | message detail
Well if anyone can replicate Crono/Vincent trends I'd expect it to be Dante vs Kirby.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/10/2008 9:48:46 PM | message detail
He's trying to related today to Crono/Vincent, but he doesn't realize that:

1. Unlike Crono, Kirby has a fantastic day vote
2. Unlike Vincent, Dante/Chief have a decent board vote
3. There's no Link to soak up 45% of the vote.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/10/2008 9:48:59 PM | message detail
I have off tomorrow. Wouldn't be up now, otherwise.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
Lopen | Posted 11/10/2008 9:49:06 PM | message detail
Well, actually, forget that: Kirby's day >>> Crono's day.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe
Lopen | Posted 11/10/2008 9:50:19 PM | message detail
Dante's board vote is trash, TuRTle. He's one of the only non FF7 characters that generally goes up all day.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/10/2008 9:50:49 PM | message detail
More increases for Dante.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
Lopen | Posted 11/10/2008 9:52:17 PM | message detail
By the way, the only reason Master Chief's looking so bad is because he's getting nuked by LFF in this division.

Lopen Fanbase Factor, for those keeping track at home.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/10/2008 9:52:45 PM | message detail
People are taking this as some kind of indication that Nintendo's futures are looking up? Looking good when the three characters are SFFing each other or doing damn near the same thing isn't remarkable.

Let's look at the non-SFF matches for a good gauge. And in those, you've got Yoshi getting annihilated by Squall, Liquid Snake putting up 45% on Luigi, Marth letting Duke Nukem lead him overnight, and most of the other miscellaneous small fry getting crushed far beyond what anything warranted. Square's throwaways (Balthier, Kain, Rydia) at least had the good sense not to embarrass themselves.

In short, let's remember this guy and two other Nintendo characters couldn't break 52% on Big Boss.
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turnturnturn your brain in
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trannyscience | Posted 11/10/2008 9:55:48 PM | message detail
heh, you know how broken that line of thinking is as well as I do, KH.

Naked Snake, "SFF" with a PS2 guy, a Gamecube guy and an Xbox guy (I'll believe overlap, but nothing super significant -- enough to get him the win maybe, but not enough to turn him into trash), and then generalizing it to Nintendo? you know better than this.
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xyzzy
http://isobamapresident.com/
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/10/2008 9:55:49 PM | message detail
Slow and steady, Dante.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/10/2008 9:56:36 PM | message detail
And... I like MC here. Dante's been chugging along, but not the at the pace that I think he'll need come day.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/10/2008 9:57:07 PM | message detail
Dante needs a BIG lead to hold on. Plus, once the votals in the dead hours go down, rallying is alot more effective. And I've got my game fuel to keep me going all night long if need be.
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http://news.cnet.com/i/bto/20071030/cube-2_540x618.jpg
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
ZFS | Posted 11/10/2008 9:58:01 PM | message detail
Dante's going to need a good lead to hold off Chief, so he'll have to be making bigger gains later, but he's not doing too bad right now. Definitely needs to get over 1,000 if he wants to have a shot at hanging on, though.

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trannyscience | Posted 11/10/2008 9:58:50 PM | message detail
one thing in Dante's favour is that Chief doesn't have a great morning. Dante should be good to go until 3pm.

this is 50/50 I say.
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xyzzy
http://isobamapresident.com/
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/10/2008 9:59:56 PM | message detail
Oh, yes, Marth looked terrible. He only killed Kefka and Niko and rode his great day vote to an easy victory over the Duke.

But, I forgot! Captain Olimar did terribly in an LFF match, this must mean Nintendo is pathetic. Carry on, then.
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Mustache...and green...
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 11/10/2008 10:01:31 PM | message detail
For trends, you can look at last year's match here:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2921&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

Obviously MC has lost a lot of strength, but if the trends stay the same he should get hit pretty hard during the dead hours.
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/10/2008 10:01:56 PM | message detail
Dante's got the consistent gains, at least. At this rate, he should have a sizable lead come the morning.

Anyway, I'm going to bed. Next topic's up when you need it.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/10/2008 10:02:18 PM | message detail
damn.. look at that asv last year with pikachu AND luigi in the poll o.O
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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/10/2008 10:03:27 PM | message detail
SFF is Same Fanbase Factor. It's not Same Company Factor or Same Genre Factor or anything like that, and there's a reason why - fanbases don't work like that.

In this match we've got the second-biggest badass on the PS2, the second-biggest badass on the Gamecube, and the biggest badass on the Xbox (kinda wish Chief was replaced with Hayabusa here so we could have a throwdown of the second bananas). Oh... and Kirby.

If there's any factor that should've been coined by now that hasn't, it's STF - Sore Thumb Factor. We saw it with Pikachu in Round 3 last year. We'll see it with Sonic tomorrow. The old Nintendo/Square lines are the most stark divisions we have, but there's more to it than just that. When Snake/Ryu H SFF is one of the most severe cases of SFF we've ever seen in this format, the old definition of SFF has to be expanded.
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turnturnturn your brain in
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/10/2008 10:05:36 PM | message detail
The power hour is over!

Crono's lead on Vincent: 663
Kirby's lead on Dante: 905
Kirby's lead on Chief: 1039

Crono's percentage of Crono/Vincent votes: 56.57%
Kirby's percentage of Kirby/Dante votes: 56.73%
Kirby's percentage of Kirby/Chief votes: 57.87%

Kirby is projected to end at 48.74% on Dante.
Kirby is projected to end at 49.88% on Chief.

(lol Crono/Vincent trends)
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Crono's quest to beat Mario:
5 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 11/10/2008 10:05:54 PM | message detail
ha the second Bio goes to bed theres a stall
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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
trannyscience | Posted 11/10/2008 10:06:51 PM | message detail
I agree with you... to a point. if we keep shrinking down the fanbases, soon we'll have no legit match. and that may be true, but when every single match is an exception, there is no rule and there is no standard.
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xyzzy
http://isobamapresident.com/
charmander6000 | Posted 11/10/2008 10:06:51 PM | message detail
Kirby's lead is going to be too big by morning, all that's left to watch is to see if Dante can beat MC.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 243/352 Today's Match: Master Chief > Kirby
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/10/2008 10:08:34 PM | message detail
Oh, yes, Marth looked terrible. He only killed Kefka and Niko and rode his great day vote to an easy victory over the Duke.

Kefka. Niko. Duke Nukem. Repeat those names with me.

I know you're the resident FE fanboy here, but Marth had no business being in contention with ANY of them, especially considering how much he stuck out as the sole Nintendo representative there. The most pitiful of Ninty reps would have upset that balance - and, lo and behold! - it did in Round 2, didn't it?

The conventional wisdom is little more than just that. I'll tell you *my* CW - I had Marth from day one in my bracket, and had total faith in it. AFTER I had already decided that Nintendo was probably going to lose a step this year. To let Duke lead you for any period of time means that you're not exactly a strong character.
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turnturnturn your brain in
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Xcarvenger | Posted 11/10/2008 10:09:55 PM | message detail
STF - Sore Thumb Factor

Cube > Mewtwo > Cloud > Snake confirmed
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/10/2008 10:10:58 PM | message detail
Leon stalling there!
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Xcarvenger | Posted 11/10/2008 10:12:21 PM | message detail
just realized that this will be the first time kirby in the finals!
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redrocket | Posted 11/10/2008 10:12:33 PM | message detail
Ready for Auron > Sonic Part II?

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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch
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