GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 625
| moe44 | Posted 11/9/2008 12:30:06 PM | message detail |
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this is true -- when you're dealing with a normal character. but
you're dealing with a Cube, a static entity. Cube will get the same
amount no matter if it's Link or some other garbage entrant. Cube being fairly static means that Mega Man just needs to top 25% and he wins. Vivi getting a higher percentage than Zero will here means he has less percentage to work with. it's not all that crazy. Cube maybe failry static vote-wise. But not percent-wise. There's no way he'd get more votes from vivi being here, resulting in a drop of %. Megaman would definitely get more votes. |
| Lopen | Posted 11/9/2008 12:31:13 PM | message detail |
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Cube will get the same amount no matter if it's Link or some other garbage entrant. Cube is not static, though. It's dropped 3% every round. It's more static than most entrants, but its percentage does move. This isn't last year's L-Block where its percentage never budges from 28%. It would go down. But also, the Cube doesn't even matter. Say Vivi got say, 2 more percent.... first of all, that probably means that Mega Man/Snake is a bit closer, even though they're both lower. Say Mega Man goes from 39% on Snake to 44% on Snake, and their total percentage goes down 2%. Mega Man still benefits from this, it's only Snake that ends up looking worse. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby. Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/9/2008 12:31:37 PM | message detail |
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I think the question of who wins if you replace Zero with Vivi can be
answered with this question - who wins between Cube and Pikachu if you
swap WCC with L-Block last match? --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| vcharon | Posted 11/9/2008 12:32:44 PM | message detail |
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Are people seriously deluding themselves enough to believe WCC has more base strength than L-Block? --- :> |
| TestIcicles | Posted 11/9/2008 12:32:57 PM | message detail |
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Alucard --- mmm test icicles |
| transience | Posted 11/9/2008 12:34:06 PM | message detail |
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Cube is not static, though. It's dropped 3% every round. It's more
static than most entrants, but its percentage does move. This isn't
last year's L-Block where its percentage never budges from 28%. It
would go down. But also, the Cube doesn't even matter. Say Vivi got say, 2 more percent.... first of all, that probably means that Mega Man/Snake is a bit closer, even though they're both lower. Say Mega Man goes from 39% on Snake to 44% on Snake, and their total percentage goes down 2%. Mega Man still benefits from this, it's only Snake that ends up looking worse. I agree with you 100% here. Snake would be doing worse if Vivi was here, no doubt. the question is, how much is the difference between Vivi and Zero? if Vivi's up at 19%, MM would have a hard time qualifying. Snake is just much stronger than him. anyway, I'm done arguing about this because it's pretty silly, but to anyone that says it's "obvious Mega Man would be winning" -- definitely not. it's inconclusive. --- xyzzy http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg |
| Lopen | Posted 11/9/2008 12:35:44 PM | message detail |
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It's hardly inconclusive, but you can keep thinking that if you want.
And why the heck would Vivi get 19% here. He barely managed to break
that last round. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby. Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe |
| moe44 | Posted 11/9/2008 12:37:33 PM | message detail |
| Except yes it's definitely obvious unless vivi being here brings more cube voters into play. If cube had the exact same amount of votes and you subbed zero for vivi, mega WOULD have more votes (but possibly lower %). Unless vivi hurts mega more than zero did vote-wise and doesn't hurt cube one bit somehow. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/9/2008 12:39:22 PM | message detail |
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People are saying Cube would be winning if Zero wasn't here? Take Zero out, a large portion of his votes goes to Mega Man. 75% is a good number, and I think that would put MM in the 45% area on Snake. Add Vivi and he hurts everyone equally. It would be something like 33-28-23-16 --- I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg |
| Lopen | Posted 11/9/2008 12:40:27 PM | message detail |
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And let me give you some numbers: Say Cube gets 24% no matter what (this is wrong considering evidence but I'll humor the idea). 76% remaining. Case 1: In this match, Zero takes 14%, and Mega Man/Snake isn't even close. Mega Man has a lowly 38% on Snake. Realistically, that's way worse than Mega Man's ever done. Case 2: In another match, Vivi, let's be generous and give Vivi 17%. There's 59% of the vote remaining. Say Mega Man takes 42% of that. Mega Man is now at 24.78%, at the expense of Snake. Not a huge margin of victory over Cube, but enough to have a clear cut win right now. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby. Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/9/2008 12:40:35 PM | message detail |
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Also: Yet you spend alot of time on a forum to discuss popularity polls. A lot? I have 2 jobs and am going to school full time. I'm lucky to spend 20 to 30 minutes on this board in a day. --- I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/9/2008 12:41:05 PM | message detail |
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Wow how surprising, America once again voted for a stupid ass character over one of the best of all time. GG Mega Man. Kids these days don't understand your greatness. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me |
| TestIcicles | Posted 11/9/2008 12:41:14 PM | message detail |
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everyone understand what your side is arguing Lopen, the point is not
everyone buys it as indisputable fact. there's no point even saying
anything on the matter anymore. --- mmm test icicles |
| Lopen | Posted 11/9/2008 12:42:41 PM | message detail |
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And even giving Vivi the ridiculous figure of 19%, Mega Man still
manages 23.94 assuming a 42-58 beatdown from Snake. Any variance in
there I have to give to Mega Man because we've seen Cube isn't static
already. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby. Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/9/2008 12:44:20 PM | message detail |
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Hmm I think I'm going to take the side that's the opposite of what Black Turtle just said which means if Vivi replaced Zero in this match he'd be beating both Mega Man and Cube BMF believe --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| Lopen | Posted 11/9/2008 12:44:40 PM | message detail |
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everyone understand what your side is arguing Lopen, the point is
not everyone buys it as indisputable fact. there's no point even saying
anything on the matter anymore. My point is that you should. You not only have to think that Cube is 100% static despite evidence to the contrary, but you have to buy some ridiculous percentages going down to not think Mega Man wins here, like Snake beating Mega Man 60-40 without Zero around, or Vivi drawing 19% when he only drew 20% last round. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby. Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2008 12:45:38 PM | message detail |
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Hey, there's Lopen saying my argument much better than I managed to. woo Lopen --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/9/2008 12:47:15 PM | message detail |
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I still can't see Snake beating Mega Man more than 55-45 1v1, no way Cube advances without Zero here. --- I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2008 12:47:55 PM | message detail |
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...Snake beat MM 55-45 in 2006. Why wouldn't he beat him worse now? --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/9/2008 12:49:35 PM | message detail |
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Mega Man 9, Brawl De-Boost etc. And this match is over. Mega Man will likely come back with the second night vote, but the assclown rally brigade will rally for their "lulz". --- I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg |
| edwardsdv | Posted 11/9/2008 12:49:38 PM | message detail |
| Aren't we jumping the shark here abit. or does MM have bad night vote? |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/9/2008 12:49:59 PM | message detail |
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Mega Man 9 obviously! --- CB7 Score: 244/320 http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/9/2008 12:50:39 PM | message detail |
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From: edwardsdv | #321 as long as Albion lives, WCC is advancing --- http://news.cnet.com/i/bto/20071030/cube-2_540x618.jpg http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png |
| red sox 777 | Posted 11/9/2008 12:50:56 PM | message detail |
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Well, the only real reasons to believe Snake would beat MM worse now are: 1. Brawl coming out 2. MGS4 3. Megaman dropping Looking at the other Brawl characters, I don't buy it's release helping Snake much. I do think MGS4 helped him some. There's no reason to think Megaman dropped since 2006- he looked as bad as he's ever looked that year. So....I'd guess Snake gets something in the 57-58% range, but 55% is possible. --- Crono's quest to beat Mario: 5 days until: Crono vs. Samus vs. Vincent vs. Pikachu |
| moe44 | Posted 11/9/2008 12:51:02 PM | message detail |
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everyone understand what your side is arguing Lopen, the point is
not everyone buys it as indisputable fact. there's no point even saying
anything on the matter anymore. Well I don't understand the other side of the argument because it makes no sense. Cube can't be static %-wise, vivi being here can't in any way bring substantially more cube voters, and megaman would get more votes while cube gets the same amount. Say 75% of zero,s votes would go to megaman, but 50% of vivi's votes would come from megaman and none from the cube (we're assuming no new voters comes into play somehow too!). 0.75/0.5 = 1.5. Vivi would need 1.5 times more votes than zero here to hurt megaman as much as zero, ASSUMING cube gets exactly the same amount of votes, which would mean he'd have over 21%. And all of his votes would be coming from snake and megaman, none from new voters. That's a REALLY extreme situation. |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 11/9/2008 12:55:37 PM | message detail |
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Cube/Mega Man is reminding me very much of how Cube/Tidus went. I don't
think it matters how close the Blue Bomber gets at this point. The
Cube's just finding a way to push him away. Oh, and this performance totally proves Snake > Samus and Mario. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%) |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/9/2008 12:56:00 PM | message detail |
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Snake's holding Mega Man under 39% while his percentage is getting
pummeled by two separate rallies. Zero doesn't even have that much
percentage - no way Snake doesn't beat MM worse than in 2k6, especially
considering this time he'd have the brackets. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| Demon HunterX | Posted 11/9/2008 12:57:47 PM | message detail |
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heres the question albion. If you made a topic about voting for mega,
would it balance it out? Because right now people on that web site do
not know that mega is in the match. Perhaps there is just as many mega
man fans there, its just they dont know who WCC is up against. You cant
claim that MMO champion is a portal first fanbase when you arent
advertising for the competition. --- Currently playing: HoMM3, FFII Next up: AJ ; Awaiting: SC2 |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/9/2008 12:58:38 PM | message detail |
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From: Demon HunterX | #328 I link em to gamefaqs.. they can see Mega Man is in the match --- http://news.cnet.com/i/bto/20071030/cube-2_540x618.jpg http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png |
| Demon HunterX | Posted 11/9/2008 1:00:00 PM | message detail |
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I link em to gamefaqs.. they can see Mega Man is in the match irrelevent. The point is on MMO champion they dont know whose in the match. If you made a topic that said VOTE FOR MEGA MAN IN THE 2008 GAMEFAQS CONTEST! Then maybe mega man would get as much support. Right now on mmo champion only the WCC fans are voting, because mega man fans dont care about a topic that says "vote Cube in 2008 contest!" --- Currently playing: HoMM3, FFII Next up: AJ ; Awaiting: SC2 |
| transience | Posted 11/9/2008 1:00:16 PM | message detail |
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hahahaha oh man --- xyzzy http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 11/9/2008 1:00:52 PM | message detail |
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Chart from two days ago: Time | Samus | Ganondorf | Vincent | Freeman EBV | 36.03% | 18.18% | 25.69% | 20.09% | (0:00-0:05) PHV | 35.32% | 17.01% | 28.45% | 19.21% | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 34.00% | 15.77% | 32.00% | 18.23% | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 34.68% | 16.72% | 30.58% | 18.02% | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 34.71% | 17.02% | 30.16% | 18.10% | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 35.29% | 17.61% | 30.06% | 17.05% | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 34.90% | 17.07% | 30.89% | 17.15% | (22:00-24:00) Stats from two days ago: Samus Aran – 50.00% Vincent Valentine – 46.59% Gordon Freeman – 33.84% Ganondorf – 32.75% Division 3 Stats Samus Aran – 50.00% Vincent Valentine – 46.59% Ganondorf – 37.98% Frog – 33.14% Gordon Freeman – 32.75% KOS-MOS – 28.66% Scorpion – 27.72% Nightmare – 27.49% Falco Lombardi – 25.21% Crash Bandicoot – 24.45% Balthier Bunansa – 23.68% Big Daddy – 21.43% GlaDOS – 20.75% Neku Sakuraba – 20.53% Raz – 13.63% Wander – 9.62% Frog > Scorpion is highly perplexing to me. I'm almost thinking it would be better if I kept Scorpion proportional to Gordon from round 2. Well, even then, he's going 50/50 with Frog. Actually, now that I think about it, Frog's overrated in these stats because of Samus/Ganon. He only got 35% on Ganon in round 1, but maintaining that proportion would either put Ganon up there with Samus or Frog down there below Nightmare. Either way, it makes no sense. Just assume he's somewhere in between those two values. Scorpion = Nightmare is kinda weird to me, too. I don't like this division. Division 3 Raw Stats Samus Aran – 50.00% Vincent Valentine – 46.59% Gordon Freeman – 33.74% Ganondorf – 32.75% Scorpion – 27.72% Nightmare – 27.49% Falco Lombardi – 25.21% Crash Bandicoot – 24.45% Balthier Bunansa – 23.68% Frog – 23.31% Big Daddy – 21.43% GlaDOS – 20.75% KOS-MOS – 20.16% Neku Sakuraba – 14.44% Raz – 13.63% Wander – 9.62% The only thing that really gets SFF'd here is Ganon's fourpack. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%) |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/9/2008 1:01:57 PM | message detail |
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No way is Frog stronger then Gordon this year --- http://news.cnet.com/i/bto/20071030/cube-2_540x618.jpg http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/9/2008 1:01:58 PM | message detail |
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Y'know, if any one of you is *really* that upset about it, you can go
make rallies of your own, y'know. The reason why rallying works is
because you attract the people who are most likely to vote for said
character ("Vote for WCC") and THEN send them to the poll. Turnabout is
fair play, you just have to have the same *cough* "dedication" *cough*. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| edwardsdv | Posted 11/9/2008 1:02:07 PM | message detail |
| This is like the Starcraft debacle all over again.,.... |
| moe44 | Posted 11/9/2008 1:02:45 PM | message detail |
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A more plausible situation is vivi getting 35% of its vote from mega, 35% from snake and 30% from new voters. Assuming zero only take 50% of its vote from megaman, that's still roughly the same situation, vivi needs over 21% of the poll for the same effect as zero had on megaman. If zero gets anything more than 50% of its votes from megaman's fanbase, then it's not even close. Anyway I'm out. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2008 1:03:18 PM | message detail |
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KH, name one good place to rally for non-PC characters. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| Demon HunterX | Posted 11/9/2008 1:05:29 PM | message detail |
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honestly im callin albion out at this point. Until he makes a "vote
mega man gamefaqs contest" topic on the same web site, and keeps
bumping it, i dont think that mmo champion is some godly website for
WCC. --- Currently playing: HoMM3, FFII Next up: AJ ; Awaiting: SC2 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/9/2008 1:05:38 PM | message detail |
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ANY place is a good place. Hell you could probably go to a Portal
fanboard and as long as your topic stated "Vote for Mega Man at
GameFAQs" you'd get as many MM votes as you got WCC votes, at worst. An
overabundance of votes is not needed in a match separated by only 300
or so. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2008 1:06:27 PM | message detail |
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Hell you could probably go to a Portal fanboard and as long as your
topic stated "Vote for Mega Man at GameFAQs" you'd get as many MM votes
as you got WCC votes If you honestly think that you have no idea how rallying works. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 11/9/2008 1:06:40 PM | message detail |
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Yesterday's chart: Time | Crono | L-Block | Pikachu | Alucard EBV | 30.94% | 27.12% | 27.66% | 14.28% | (0:00-0:05) PHV | 31.11% | 26.65% | 26.64% | 15.60% | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 31.93% | 24.25% | 26.11% | 17.71% | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 29.66% | 23.59% | 29.00% | 17.75% | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 30.56% | 24.51% | 27.91% | 17.02% | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 32.21% | 24.32% | 26.39% | 18.15% | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 30.83% | 23.96% | 26.76% | 18.44% | (22:00-24:00) Crono and Alucard winning the day vote while Pikachu loses it? Sheer lunacy! Pikachu almost beat Crono outright with that early morning vote though. Crazy stuff. Yesterday's stats: Crono – 50.00% Pikachu – 46.42% L-Block – 43.92% Alucard – 35.87% Division 4 Stats Crono – 50.00% Pikachu – 46.42% L-Block – 43.92% Ryu – 40.38% Alucard – 35.87% Meta Knight – 33.68% Ike – 32.61% Amaterasu – 31.93% Captain Falcon – 31.86% Arthas Menethil – 30.07% Diddy Kong – 24.92% The Dog – 24.79% Spy – 23.47% Kratos Aurion – 23.33% Frank West – 22.53% Kaim Argonar – 12.80% Now these are some messed up stats. I decided to keep Falcon and Ike proportional to Alucard (who actually seems fine, stats-wise. That's about what he got on Auron in 2006) because I think it looks better. Meta Knight > Ike this way though, just barely. Won't really be able to do anything about Pikachu until next round though. Division 4 Raw Stats Crono – 50.00% Pikachu – 46.42% L-Block – 43.92% Ryu – 42.63% Ike – 41.45% Captain Falcon – 40.51% Arthas Menethil – 38.39% Alucard – 35.87% Meta Knight – 35.55% Amaterasu – 31.93% Diddy Kong – 31.69% Spy – 29.97% Kratos Aurion – 29.66% The Dog – 24.79% Frank West – 22.53% Kaim Argonar – 12.80% For you Ike and Captain Falcon fans, I kept them proportional with Pikachu, which leads to great fun. I gave Ryu his round 2 value on Crono, which actually lines up with L-Block's round 1 value on him, too. Strange how Ryu couldn't do squat there. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%) |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/9/2008 1:06:44 PM | message detail |
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AIM List + Phonebook + Utter Shamelessness It's how we Frog guys do it! --- Yoblazer: http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/3699/thegamefaqsticketxr8.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2008 1:07:52 PM | message detail |
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Liking that second set of stats! --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| transience | Posted 11/9/2008 1:08:32 PM | message detail |
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Ryu – 42.63% Ike – 41.45% yesterday's match was so screwed up. --- xyzzy http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/9/2008 1:08:54 PM | message detail |
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http://news.filefront.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/wcc.jpg From WoW --- http://news.cnet.com/i/bto/20071030/cube-2_540x618.jpg http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png |
| Demon HunterX | Posted 11/9/2008 1:11:28 PM | message detail |
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somebody go on mmo champion (i was banned about a year ago) and make a
vote mega man in gamefaqs contest topic. Provide a link to gfaqs. It will cancel it out, or cause WCC to gain less per update. Plain and simple. It comes to WCC is getting publicity on that site, mega isnt. --- Currently playing: HoMM3, FFII Next up: AJ ; Awaiting: SC2 |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2008 1:11:37 PM | message detail |
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For reference: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2527&num=2 Factor in Crono dropping and Falcon boosting, and the first set of stats actually looks pretty good. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 11/9/2008 1:11:47 PM | message detail |
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If you honestly think that you have no idea how rallying works. Thanks for the insightful rebuttal but no thanks on the bridge to nowhere I think I've had enough of this "discussion" anyway And hey, SFFed Captain Falcon gets 40% on Crono eh? So is Vincent gonna be closer to a doubling or a tripling next round on him? <.< --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| __hiei__ | Posted 11/9/2008 1:12:51 PM | message detail |
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Pikachu screwed everything up he clearly performed at top 20 level there. actually since RYU us probably top 20 Pikachu performed significantly better than that however i think that was a result of some SFF by Pika on the block combined with all the hate that lead many Crono and even alucard voters to go with Pikachu in order to eliminate the block guess we need to wait for next match.and i'm already gonna say this;Pikachu will at least have more % than ganon did,but i doubt he keeps this level of strength |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 11/9/2008 1:13:31 PM | message detail |
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Thanks for the insightful rebuttal Do you think that random people will vote for who you tell them to vote for just because some random guy asked them to? There's a higher chance they don't vote for your character just to spite you. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
