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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 624

ffmasterjose | Posted 11/8/2008 8:55:00 AM | message detail
Shaped like a horn to get owned by Pikachu with Thundershock!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

~*aprosenf's poll script*~
http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.

Two down, one more to go. Your days are numbered WCC

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239/304 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Crono > Ryu SF | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0
XxSoulxX | Posted 11/8/2008 9:24:26 AM | message detail
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN!
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Good Times,
Great Memories
MichaelWClark | Posted 11/8/2008 9:26:22 AM | message detail
Die Block*
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/8/2008 9:35:10 AM | message detail
Snake for 50% tomorrow!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
RamsesII | Posted 11/8/2008 9:39:34 AM | message detail
honestly, result is expected!!
chrono gets the square vote
pikachu gets the nintendo vote
lblock gets the joke vote
and alucard is owned.

but. the great difference here comes that pikachu is a joke character too, and thus steals part of the joke vote away from lblock.. and the result is expected!!
now, be careful with the cube tomorrow. or with mewtwo against 3 square characters.. nevertheless, it sucks as none of those have the potential to take down link as the block did.
ffmasterjose | Posted 11/8/2008 9:43:17 AM | message detail
Alucard's not getting owned, this is all part of his plan to sacrifice his votes to let Pikachu take second and take out L-Block
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239/304 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Crono > Ryu SF | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0
Strife_Reaper | Posted 11/8/2008 9:53:04 AM | message detail
Chrono FTW, but I suppose that should be obvious. It saddens me that Alucard will lose to the likes of Pikachu and L-block
ffmasterjose | Posted 11/8/2008 10:00:45 AM | message detail
Crono =/= Chrono

that's been drivin' me CRAZY
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239/304 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Crono > Ryu SF | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0
hellfire104 | Posted 11/8/2008 10:04:26 AM | message detail
So....since L-block just choked stupendously, anybody think WCC might joke as well. He also has a harder match to deal with.
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Point Total/Rank: 245/318, 78%, T11th
My Bracket Says: Crono > Pikachu Prediction: Crono > Block
Gaddswell | Posted 11/8/2008 1:01:00 PM | message detail
Whoo Pikachu!
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/8/2008 1:02:21 PM | message detail
I love how awesome this makes Ike and Captain Falcon look. Not that we can take much...or anything from this match, but still!

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/8/2008 1:02:25 PM | message detail
I'm actually really worried about the Cube right now. He's probably going to make it through Mega Man tomorrow, but hopefully Cloud and Snake will be enough to stop it.
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CB7 Score: 236/304
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/8/2008 1:03:52 PM | message detail
And yeah, on the issue of Pikachu looking amazing and Crono looking bad and all that jazz, L-block matches can't really be trusted for anything. Pikachu is very likely overperforming here because people want to see the Block get ousted, and unless you think Pikachu beats Ryu to the tune of 6-7%, these results need to be taken with a grain of salt.
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CB7 Score: 236/304
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg
HaRRicH | Posted 11/8/2008 1:05:11 PM | message detail
Great way to end the last topic yo.


If you're going to keep your main open BT, then that's not an excuse anymore. Come on...MM/Zero can easily beat Solid by 3+%. Anybody care to make predictions about tomorrow's match early? I'm just going for the long-shot.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
hellfire104 | Posted 11/8/2008 1:05:41 PM | message detail
If people will vote for pikachu to get block out, why wouldn't they vote for megaman to get the cube out? I know I'll be doing that.
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Point Total/Rank: 245/318, 78%, T11th
My Bracket Says: Crono > Pikachu Prediction: Crono > Block
red sox 777 | Posted 11/8/2008 1:08:52 PM | message detail
After today's match, I really like Megaman to take out Cube. Megaman beat Cube worse than Crono beat L-Block last round, and the "vote floor" has fallen out from under the joke characters it seems.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Victory!
ffmasterjose | Posted 11/8/2008 1:09:49 PM | message detail
Zero in the match tomorrow is going to hurt Mega Man.
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239/304 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Crono > Ryu SF | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0
PegasusLover123 | Posted 11/8/2008 1:10:11 PM | message detail
Because in this case, we have SFF between MM and Zero and each has its own set of fans.

This is why the Cube has a better chance than L-block here.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/8/2008 1:11:34 PM | message detail
Thing is, WCC has looked a lot more like L-Block than L-Block has. The Cube still has that ridiculous push at the beginning, it looks a lot more L-Block did last year in the early rounds. I'd love to be wrong, but I just have a bad feeling about it.
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CB7 Score: 236/304
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg
PegasusLover123 | Posted 11/8/2008 1:12:37 PM | message detail
And knowing the rabid joke fans, they're really gonna rally behind Cube to avenge the fallen L-block.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
red sox 777 | Posted 11/8/2008 1:13:42 PM | message detail
L-Block is below 25% today, and Cube is not only weaker in all likelihood, it's also facing stronger competition (Snake > Crono, and MM/Zero should be stronger than Pikachu/Alucard even with LFF). If Cube falls much below 25%, MM/Zero LFF, even severe LFF, won't be enough to save it.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Victory!
smitelf | Posted 11/8/2008 1:14:24 PM | message detail
People have to stop generalizing the performance of joke characters. They are not consistent with each other. This is evidence that people don't find L-Block as funny anymore - hell, Pikachu beating L-Block, who beat Link, is a funnier "joke" than L-Block winning. The same can't be said for Mega Man beating WCC.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Biden/Obama...er, I mean Obama/Biden '08!
ffmasterjose | Posted 11/8/2008 1:15:01 PM | message detail
Then it's settled, everyone vote Mega Man tomorrow! :)
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239/304 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Crono > Ryu SF | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0
Chamek | Posted 11/8/2008 1:15:50 PM | message detail
If the Cube manages to make it past MM/Zero (which is a huge possibility, perhaps even what I would expect to happen given the SFF between the two), I do not see him making it past Cloud/Snake--no way, no how. MM would flat out destroy the Cube without Zero in the match, Snake would flat out destroy MM by an even larger margin, and Cloud would flat out destroy Snake by perhaps an even larger margin. Maybe some of those statements are exaggerations of the truth, but Cloud > Snake > MM > Cube is definitely true, at the very least.

I'm just not seeing the Cube making it past R4.
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Wii: 7747-8250-9901-7998 Name: Jims
Okay, you have me beat, the best I got is I used to be a boy. ~MYC
hellfire104 | Posted 11/8/2008 1:16:53 PM | message detail
Also, only 28% of voters had WCC going through the last round. Meaning its going to be far lower this round, im betting probably 18%. That's not exactly a strong base for bracket voting.
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Point Total/Rank: 245/318, 78%, T11th
My Bracket Says: Crono > Pikachu Prediction: Crono > Block
Biolizard28 | Posted 11/8/2008 1:17:09 PM | message detail
Cube may very well advance, but no way in hell does it get past the giant wall of Cloud/Snake.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
smitelf | Posted 11/8/2008 1:29:06 PM | message detail

From: Biolizard28 | #026
Cube may very well advance, but no way in hell does it get past the giant wall of Cloud/Snake.



I agree. Cube's not as strong as L-Block was last year. It has a good shot to get past Mega Man with LFF on its side, but Cloud/Snake will be too much for it.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Biden/Obama...er, I mean Obama/Biden '08!
__hiei__ | Posted 11/8/2008 1:31:29 PM | message detail
i think we can officialy say this is the weirdest match ever

.......Crono is wining the ASV.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/8/2008 1:33:48 PM | message detail
No school
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/8/2008 1:34:06 PM | message detail
Yeah well, there aren't many kids coming from school on Saturday
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/8/2008 1:42:02 PM | message detail
Then it's settled, everyone vote Mega Man tomorrow! :)

Okay!

...


...

wait that would mean voting against Snake THAT GOES AGAINST EVERYTHING I BELIEVE IN
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hmm
well then
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/8/2008 1:42:46 PM | message detail
Vote for Snake and everything will work itself out in the end

you'll see
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
charmander6000 | Posted 11/8/2008 1:42:50 PM | message detail
So Pikachu is beating Alucard worse this round than he did against Arthas last round.

You know looking at everything Captain Falcon could of had a good chance at beating Alucard if Diddy wasn't in the poll.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 219/304 Today's Match: Crono > Ryu
im317 | Posted 11/8/2008 3:04:26 PM | message detail
>_>
thats it, time for me to rally for L-Block

/me heads out to rally
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"L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion" L-Block 08
"L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass"
Gaddswell | Posted 11/8/2008 3:04:42 PM | message detail
<_<
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8
red sox 777 | Posted 11/8/2008 3:17:41 PM | message detail
It's nice to see that Crono only fell about 1% from his peak percentage today, and is going back up now. I'm not counting on him doing anything with the day vote other than collapse next round, however. Hopefully he'll be far enough ahead of Vincent by 4 AM that it won't matter.

I'm feeling a Megaman overperformance tomorrow. Don't think he'll have any problems with the Cube, and he might look surprisingly good compared to Snake, considering Zero will be in the poll. By overperformance, I mean overperformance however: MM needs the votes tomorrow, and everyone knows Snake will take first.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Victory!
im317 | Posted 11/8/2008 3:22:28 PM | message detail
well i tried, but i think i pissed off more people then i got votes.
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"L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion" L-Block 08
"L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass"
__hiei__ | Posted 11/8/2008 3:41:16 PM | message detail
Rallying for L block at this point will probably just have a Kerrigan effect...

people went to starcraft sites to rally and it resulted in Vincent gaining even more than normal. >_>
paraboxx | Posted 11/8/2008 3:49:47 PM | message detail
Looks like Gamefaqs got just as bored with the joke as you guys.

I know I'm supposed to get behind WCC now, since that's the last "joke character" left and all, but...it's just not the same...
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/8/2008 3:53:54 PM | message detail
The Blue Bomber > Snake tomorrow.

Just you wait.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/8/2008 4:04:49 PM | message detail
How much is possible for Snake>Megaman?I mean it is high unlikely?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
Iamthekuzalol | Posted 11/8/2008 4:38:08 PM | message detail
I will vote for Snake, no point voting for MM if Zero is not willing to sacrifice himself to let MM get 75% of the fanbase vote.
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Favourite wrestlers so far- Taker, Punk, Daniels, Joe.
Advanced_Koko8 | Posted 11/8/2008 4:44:30 PM | message detail
MM and Zero are going to be so SFF'd!
I am gonna vote for Solid Snake.
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You can't change gamefaqs, gamefaqs changes you
ZFS | Posted 11/8/2008 4:47:01 PM | message detail
L-Block getting beat easily by Pikachu who knew

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http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif
http://i34.tinypic.com/15wdsu0.gif
creativename | Posted 11/8/2008 4:52:32 PM | message detail
I'm actually really worried about the Cube right now. He's probably going to make it through Mega Man tomorrow, but hopefully Cloud and Snake will be enough to stop it.

WCC has a good chance tomorrow, but it has no chance against Cloud and Snake.

Especially with an SFFed to death Squall/Sora there, or a weak and last-place-factor suffering Mewtwo who'll be a total non-factor.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
creativename | Posted 11/8/2008 4:59:26 PM | message detail
Looks like people already pointed out that WCC would get owned by Cloud/Snake.

But I'm feeling good about Mega Man's chances tomorrow. Especially with this!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-53-4.jpg

Best pic of the contest so far.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
Nyah | Posted 11/8/2008 5:01:29 PM | message detail
hah glorious pic ^.^
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"If truly there is evil in this world it lurks in the hearts of man" -- Edward D. Morrison
ZFS | Posted 11/8/2008 5:05:05 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-53-1.jpg

Best one right here

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http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif
http://i34.tinypic.com/15wdsu0.gif
Iamthekuzalol | Posted 11/8/2008 5:06:20 PM | message detail
ZFS was right, easily the best picture of the contest so far.
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Favourite wrestlers so far- Taker, Punk, Daniels, Joe.
Nyah | Posted 11/8/2008 5:32:14 PM | message detail
nt
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"If truly there is evil in this world it lurks in the hearts of man" -- Edward D. Morrison
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