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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 621

CP724 | Posted 11/5/2008 11:00:57 PM | message detail
Yeah, I don't know, I don't really think judging Zack through his performance against Link is a good idea at all right now

Why not? He scored 30%+ twice against Link, Why wouldn't you judge Zack based on this? I don't understand why people are saying this.
Lopen | Posted 11/5/2008 11:02:44 PM | message detail
I just told you why: The higher you bring Zack, the higher you bring Wario.

Bad idea.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe
Gaddswell | Posted 11/5/2008 11:04:13 PM | message detail
What happens if we use something along the lines of Cecil = Kain? Just for fun of course, since I think that would put Wario way too high!
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/5/2008 11:06:25 PM | message detail
X should take the lead within the next 4 updates!
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/5/2008 11:08:11 PM | message detail
projecting xstats based off Zacks last 2 rounds against Link... wario would be the third strongest character in this division, yes?
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CP724 | Posted 11/5/2008 11:11:06 PM | message detail
I just told you why: The higher you bring Zack, the higher you bring Wario.

Bad idea.


So? That match had LFF in it in all likelyhood as well as Wario being the Sole nintendo character, yet you base Zack off that match rather than consistant 30%+ on Link. Doesn't make much sense to me.
Lopen | Posted 11/5/2008 11:18:02 PM | message detail
Low percentages are not reliable indicators of character strength.

See Vincent/Scorpion/Falco/Gordon which implies that Gordon would beat Scorpion with some ease when he clearly doesn't based on the previous round.

There's only so much LFF you can give Zack there. Even if you add all of Cecil's percentage to Zack's, I don't think he's getting as much as a 30% on Link character should be getting against Wario, there.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe
Xcarvenger | Posted 11/5/2008 11:18:07 PM | message detail
Wario was overperforming because of brackets (we still care because this was the first match) and Wario Land: Shake It hype that's coming out in like 3 days after the match. Cecil and Jade Curtiss would sooner hurt Zack more than Wario as well.
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Lopen | Posted 11/5/2008 11:21:20 PM | message detail
Whoo Zack fanboys. Have fun with your Wario that beats upper midcarders.

Whatever, you'll see the next round when he folds under X and Mario. He's not weak, certainly, but 30% on BL is pretty much not happening.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/5/2008 11:23:46 PM | message detail
Zack to finish ahead of X, but slightly behind Mario next round. I guarantee it.
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CP724 | Posted 11/5/2008 11:23:53 PM | message detail
Low percentages are not reliable indicators of character strength.

See Vincent/Scorpion/Falco/Gordon which implies that Gordon would beat Scorpion with some ease when he clearly doesn't based on the previous round.

There's only so much LFF you can give Zack there. Even if you add all of Cecil's percentage to Zack's, I don't think he's getting as much as a 30% on Link character should be getting against Wario, there.


I see your point, but when you put someone like Ryu, Dante or Leon in Zack's position instead do you really see them putting up much more than Zack has done? In fact as mentioned earlier we've seen Vincent put up a similar percentage relative to Link last year.
Lopen | Posted 11/5/2008 11:28:37 PM | message detail
I see your point, but when you put someone like Ryu, Dante or Leon in Zack's position instead do you really see them putting up much more than Zack has done? In fact as mentioned earlier we've seen Vincent put up a similar percentage relative to Link last year.

No, but that's not my point. My point is that if you put Zack against Dante, Leon, or Ryu directly, none of this indirect crap, and he gets his ass handed to him. Zack is basically just getting the "I'm not insanely weak and people who don't like Link need something to vote for" vote. Replace Zack with say, Tidus and all of the sudden the argument is now "would Zack do much better than this?!" as Tidus is hitting 22% in every match.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe
CP724 | Posted 11/5/2008 11:31:22 PM | message detail
Well that can be disupted how well he does directly against people like dante etc. We just don't know yet. I guess I'll just leave at that and say we'll see.
ZFS | Posted 11/5/2008 11:31:46 PM | message detail
Zack to finish ahead of X

This would surprise me, but it'd be a good show for Zack. Think he'll be hurtin' next round.

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Xcarvenger | Posted 11/5/2008 11:36:16 PM | message detail
you'll see the next round when [Zack] folds under X and Mario.

I'll give you that is the most likely scenario, but I don't think Vincent or any other near-elite characters for that matter, can do much better if they're there


Replace Zack with say, Tidus

Tidus would find a way to lose to the Duke tbqh
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Lopen | Posted 11/5/2008 11:38:43 PM | message detail
I'd say most elite midcarders without Nintendo ties probably beat MMX next round.

Zack won't be doing it, though.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 3 - Dante/Leon/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Robot LFF/SFF from Raiden? I THINK SO. Believe
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/5/2008 11:43:32 PM | message detail
Looks like X might struggle to even take the lead away from Mario tonight.
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CB7 Score: 204/272
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/6/2008 12:01:00 AM | message detail
If X is hard-pressed to take the lead from Mario, it's safe to assume that Zelda and Mudkip were hurting Mario more than Luigi is.
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Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
Xcarvenger | Posted 11/6/2008 12:03:45 AM | message detail
how about that Liquid CUT on Mario
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/6/2008 12:43:36 AM | message detail
Ouch. Luigi just got a 9% update.

Seems whenever the lead's close to 50 is when Mario starts gaining again. Hmm
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 11/6/2008 12:49:44 AM | message detail
Come on, X. Take the lead and then hold the lead and then win, please.
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/6/2008 1:02:15 AM | message detail
And Liquid finally cuts X!
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Xcarvenger | Posted 11/6/2008 1:28:15 AM | message detail
haha Liquid with 30% update, cutting both Mario and X!
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/6/2008 2:18:19 AM | message detail
Check out that 32% Liquid update!
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Guess how many teens | Posted 11/6/2008 2:31:42 AM | message detail
wtf @ almost the same amount of people having zack in first or in second.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2008 4:46:47 AM | message detail
Wow Mario is still winning despite Luigi getting over 15%. Also I think this proves that MMX is also affected by Nintendo characters like we thought. Unless you think Liquid > Zelda and that Luigi would break 45% on Mario indirectly.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 187/272 Today's Match: Mario > Mega Man X
Iamthekuzalol | Posted 11/6/2008 4:54:45 AM | message detail
Call me foolish or anything, Zack may be strong but he still haven't proven to me that he is elite by beating scrub except Link in division 1. Altair / Duke / Wario / Zidane are all just around low midcarder.

Did people say that Vincent is the strongest NNN when he beat Kerrigan / The Boss/ The Tails, nah. Vincent proved it by beating Dante / Ganon / Squall / Crono / Zelda. Unless Zack beat any strong character legitimately, i won't even classified him under league of SF Ryu or Leon Kennedy. He won't be beating X or Mario next round even with triple SFF aiding him.
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Favourite wrestlers so far- Taker, Punk, Daniels, Joe.
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2008 4:59:30 AM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Link | Zack | The Duke | Altair
EBV | 52.36% | 20.91% | 17.61% | 9.13% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 51.94% | 21.80% | 15.59% | 10.68% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 48.11% | 24.73% | 16.02% | 11.15% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 51.67% | 23.00% | 14.14% | 11.19% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 51.51% | 22.07% | 14.76% | 11.66% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 52.94% | 20.69% | 13.43% | 12.94% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 51.70% | 21.86% | 13.61% | 12.83% | (22:00-24:00)

Maybe it's just me, but it seems like Link's getting stronger each round. He definitely wasn't messin' around this time. Only under 50% during the night, and he owned face the rest of the match, even with Zack's FFVII day vote and Altair's day vote. Zack's actually been showing more nightish trends the last two matches though. He had a great night vote here. Altair makes a noticeable improvement during the day, while Zack and Duke both get owned by Link.

Yesterday's stats:

Link – 50.00%
Zack Fair – 30.01%
Duke Nukem – 21.91%
Altair – 18.82%

And the moment you've all been waiting for!

Division 1 Stats

Link – 50.00%
Zack Fair – 30.01%
Wario – 25.55%
Marth – 23.14%
Duke Nukem – 21.91%
Niko Bellic – 20.17%
Kefka – 19.58%
Altair – 18.82%
Zidane Tribal – 18.56%
Shadow the Hedgehog – 16.70%
Cecil Harvey – 16.09%
Lucario – 12.80%
Isaac – 12.30%
Luke fon Fabre – 9.16%
Guybrush Threepwood – 9.12%
Jade Curtiss – 7.03%

Wario ends up slightly ahead of Marth. The Duke breaks 20% on Link, and so does Niko? Huh? And he and Kefka both end up above Altair? I'm thinking about keeping Altair proportional to the Duke from last round, though there's really no reason to. I just think it looks better, honestly. Oh, and after seeing Zack did about the same as last round, I decided that he and Zidane didn't really have that much overlap, so I gave him his round 2 value on Link rather than round 1. Plus, that round 1 value makes him stronger than Duke anyway, so...Well, not that he COULDN'T be, but still...where he is now makes more sense.

And Luke beats Guybrush! Go Fails of the Abyss! But if I keep Altair proportional to Duke from last round, that'll change somewhat. Regardless, Lucario looks pathetic.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2008 5:02:57 AM | message detail
Did people say that Vincent is the strongest NNN when he beat Kerrigan...

Actually they were calling him a Noble Nine Breaker after his first match. I remember having many flame wars in this topic saying that I think Dante had a chance at beating him. Even the oracle average for that match was Vincent with 60% and that's with the 10 or so people supporting the Dante win.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 187/272 Today's Match: Mario > Mega Man X
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/6/2008 5:06:16 AM | message detail
Man, how far has Kefka fallen that he loses to Duke Nukem.

What a terrible division.
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Iamthekuzalol | Posted 11/6/2008 5:50:08 AM | message detail
So people were actually calling Vincent a NN breaker after his 1st match, well then i take back my comment and apologize for it.

Regardless through, i still don't think Zack is quite as strong as some people has predicted.
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Favourite wrestlers so far- Taker, Punk, Daniels, Joe.
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 11/6/2008 6:08:55 AM | message detail
Man, how far has Kefka fallen that he loses to Duke Nukem.

What a terrible division.


How far has Shadow fallen that he loses to Kefka?


That's just like.. woah, this guy got 40something on Mario once.
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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve!
Crimson Dragoon | Posted 11/6/2008 6:10:02 AM | message detail
Those were dark times indeed.
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/6/2008 6:36:20 AM | message detail
So people were actually calling Vincent a NN breaker after his 1st match, well then i take back my comment and apologize for it.

Regardless through, i still don't think Zack is quite as strong as some people has predicted.


Yup though to be fair people thought Kerrigan was a half decent character because of the performances of Starcraft and Diablo in previous contests.

Still using last year's Kefka Zack has a strength at about 27% BL which puts him around last year's Knuckles and Scorpion.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 187/272 Today's Match: Mario > Mega Man X
BDawg | Posted 11/6/2008 7:28:28 AM | message detail
Kinda funny that X tried to pull the night vote comeback again, only to have Mario go "It's a me, bleeping Mario." halfway through it.
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Should I start running now?
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2008 7:37:10 AM | message detail
Here are the stats from Division 1 keeping Altair proportional to Duke from round 2:

Division 1 Stats

Link – 50.00%
Zack Fair – 30.01%
Wario – 25.55%
Marth – 23.14%
Duke Nukem – 21.91%
Altair – 21.70%
Niko Bellic – 20.17%
Kefka – 19.58%
Zidane Tribal – 18.56%
Shadow the Hedgehog – 16.70%
Cecil Harvey – 16.09%
Lucario – 14.76%
Isaac – 14.18%
Guybrush Threepwood – 10.51%
Luke fon Fabre – 9.16%
Jade Curtiss – 7.03%

Which set of stats do you guys think looks better?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2008 8:04:38 AM | message detail
Oh, and Liquid's gonna end up lookin' real good in these stats, no matter what. He's got about 40% on Mario right now. The day vote is gonna put a hurtin' on him though, but I really have no idea how to adjust this division because there's just way too much SFF.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
red sox 777 | Posted 11/6/2008 8:13:00 AM | message detail
Nice to see Mario doing so well today. I see him as the favorite for next round now, and I wouldn't be too surprised if my original prediction that he would finish way ahead of X happens. I don't like Zack's chances either: I was hoping he'd beat Duke and Altair combined yesterday, and he didn't come close to doing that. Of course, Link finished with a lower percentage than the previous round also despite not being LFF'd this time, so that might just mean I've been underestimating Duke and Altair, but nonetheless, I have difficulty picturing Zack much above 20% next round, and I have difficulty seeing Mario below 20%.

On the argument about Zack getting not-Link votes: sure, but not-Link voters probably aren't going to vote for Mario or Megaman X, 2 Nintendo or pseudo-Nintendo characters, either. I could see Zack losing a lot of strength if there's another strong character from a separate fanbase in the match, but Mario and X really shouldn't be too much worse for him than Duke and Altair considering all the SFF that will by flying around. If you want to vote against Nintendo, you had 3 options yesterday, and you will have only 1 option next round (2, if you don't count X as Nintendo). Replace X with say, Crono, and Zack probably finishes in last by a large margin.

I'm not sure who to vote for in that match yet- do I bracket vote for Mario, vote for Zack because it would be an awesome upset, or vote for Link because he's my favorite character there?
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2008 8:19:58 AM | message detail
DIVISION 4 GRADES AND ANALYSIS

Match 5

Crono - With a strong character like Ryu and a decent low midcarder in Ammy, everyone thought L-Block had first place wrapped up. Crono had other plans. He was even beating the Block at the end of the board vote, which is a first, I believe. That's impressive in and of itself. His day vote wasn't that bad, but that's probably because Street Fighter and Tetris are two of the few franchises with day votes that are comparable for badness. Crono's in good shape to get first place next round, too. He gave us all new hope!

Grade: A

Amaterasu - She held up very well in the face of some stiff competition, so she deserves a lot of credit for that. Most characters would've folded here, so she obviously has a pretty dedicated fanbase. She avoided the doubling overall from Crono for the second round in a row. Good show yet again for Ammy.

Grade: C+

L-Block - This was a pretty big surprise to we statheads. L-Block didn't even come close to beating Crono here, and it ended up with the lowest percentage it's received in a match thus far. It certainly doesn't seem to be building momentum...yet. Maybe L-Block is more of a legit character now? Either way, the Block failed to live up to expectations here, but it's not in danger of losing quite yet.

Grade: C-

Ryu - Close to L-Block in round 1, not so close in round 2. Ryu did about what he was expected to do. Some people thought he had a shot at ousting L-Block just due to his strength, but after round 1, we knew that wasn't gonna happen.

Grade: C
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
Master Moltar | Posted 11/6/2008 8:20:26 AM | message detail
lol mmx > mario is a lock people WHERE'D YA GO

never doubt the man in red

Anyway, nothing to surprising for me, here. Liquid's going to end up looking great, and Mario/Luigi SFF (confirming Zelda hindering Mario) turns out according to plan. woo
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hmm
well then
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2008 8:29:51 AM | message detail
Match 6

Alucard - I thought he'd finish first here because of the SFF between Pikachu and Falcon (Okay, I had Ike here LFFing Pikachu instead, but still). He didn't finish too far off though, and he led the rat for a long time. The day vote was, as usual, his undoing. He's destined for dead last next round, but hey, Alucard made it back to the third round for the first time since 2003, so it's something!

Grade: B-

Captain Falcon - He's a weird case when it comes to SFF. He can SFF Diddy (and maybe Kratos), but he gets SFF'd by Fox and Pikachu (and maybe Wario). He didn't hold up to the rat quite as well as Ike did, but he seems to be one of the few Nintendo characters who looks stronger than last year. He didn't finish too far off from Arthas despite the SFF either, so not too shabby, I suppose.

Grade: C-

Pikachu - Pikachu was able to beat Alucard in spite of being hindered with Captain Falcon in the poll. Sure, Alucard's not what he once was, but he did a good job of coming back and then running away with it with the ASV. Suddenly, he's become Board 8's next (false) hope to oust the L-Block. Ah forget it, I'm on the rat train! Woo!

Grade: A-

Arthas Menethil - Arthas finished a good bit farther behind Pikachu this time than he did last time. Perhaps it was the pic. Perhaps it was the lack of mass rallying. Either way, not that great of a performance.

Grade: D

STAR OF DIVISION 4: Crono

TURD OF DIVISION 4: L-Block (Whoo! Okay, or Arthas works, too. Doesn't matter).
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
ffmasterjose | Posted 11/6/2008 8:35:09 AM | message detail
(confirming Zelda hindering Mario) turns out according to plan. woo

Wha? People thought Zelda wasn't hindering Mario? *shakes head*

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207/272 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Mario > Mega Man X | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2008 8:37:13 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Master Moltar | Posted 11/6/2008 8:38:44 AM | message detail
well, they at least thought luigi would hinder mario more.

but they had to justify mmx > mario somehow!
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hmm
well then
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2008 8:38:53 AM | message detail
DIVISION 5 GRADES AND ANALYSIS

Match 5

Weighted Companion Cube - This might have been a little more surprising if we hadn't seen L-Block basically do the same thing a couple of matches before. Finished far behind Mega Man but far ahead of Tidus. It's got a good situation next round to keep advancing, so we'll see what it can do. (Seriously, where's ? Block?)

Grade: C

Tidus - Remember what I just said about Ryu? Yeah, it applies to Tidus here. Well, except for the part about people thinking this would be the best chance to oust the Cube. No one was sure what to expect here. I'm still upset it cost Tidus a chance to advance to round 3 for the first time ever though! Well, he didn't do too badly on Mega Man, and he doubled Nero, so Tidus actually looked decent this contest.

Grade: C-

Mega Man - Mega Man actually ended up a good bit farther ahead of Cube than Crono did compared to the Block, but the Tetris piece is stronger, so that could explain it. It'd be interesting to see if he could still best the Cube if Zero weren't there to LFF him, but as it stands, unless he drills Zero (sorta like Mario is doing today, so it's possible) or he isn't affected at all (which is semi-possible but unlikely), the Blue Bomber is going to get stopped in round 3 for the first time since 2002.

Grade: A

Nero - A beneficiary of the Obvious First Place Factor in round 1, Nero gets exposed in round 2. He still ends up looking like a low midcarder or high fodder, which is fine. Nobody was expecting much more of him anyway.

Grade: F
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
red sox 777 | Posted 11/6/2008 8:40:51 AM | message detail
Since Mario is headed to an easy win here.....if we replaced Liquid with Bowser, would he still win?
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2008 8:45:20 AM | message detail
Match 6

Ryu Hayabusa - So Snake/Hayabusa SFF is some of the most severe SFF we've encountered in this format? Huh?

Grade: F

Zero - Vivi gave him the fight of his life, but Zero used the ASV and second night vote (one of the few times it mattered!) to come back and distance himself from the Black Mage. But because you gave BT an excuse to back out of his account bet...

Grade: F---

(Seriously though, C+)

Solid Snake - He got the 43-45% I said he needed to contend with Samus and Mario, and we've got people saying he can contend with Sephiroth now! I guess that was a good show then! Oh, and close your account, BT!

Grade: A++++

Vivi Orunitia - Vivi blew a great opportunity to advance to round 3, but most people didn't give him much of a shot before the contest. That's probably more of a shot to Zero than anything, but still, good contest showing for the little guy.

Grade: C

STAR OF DIVISION 5: Solid Snake

TURD OF DIVISION 5: Ryu Hayabusa
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2008 8:46:01 AM | message detail
Looking at how well Bowser didn't do against Luigi last round, I'd say Mario would be winning by more here if the Koopa King were here instead.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
transience | Posted 11/6/2008 8:47:00 AM | message detail
nah, if Bowser was here MMX would be winning. no doubt about it.
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xyzzy
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/6/2008 8:48:51 AM | message detail
You think Bowser would hold up to Mario better?

Well, I guess it's possible, but I don't think so.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
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