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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 621

Gaddswell | Posted 11/6/2008 9:25:46 PM | message detail

Chaotic Mind (#127)
I love how these guys love to call matches less than 30 minutes into them.



That's stats for ya!

Gordon only gained 5 there!
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/6/2008 9:26:07 PM | message detail
Guys I need your help rallying Vincent
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XxSoulxX | Posted 11/6/2008 9:26:10 PM | message detail
That's ok! As long as he keeps gaining.
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Chaotic Mind | Posted 11/6/2008 9:26:14 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
paraboxx | Posted 11/6/2008 9:26:23 PM | message detail
I love how these guys love to call matches less than 30 minutes into them.

It's great, isn't it!?
The sad thing is, they're right more than half the time.

(On the plus side, when they are wrong, it's usually hilarious.)
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/6/2008 9:26:26 PM | message detail
got to hope Vincent and Crono hurt each other seriously enough next round to let L-Block make it through.

FF7 and Chrono Trigger supposedly didn't SFF each other in the Games contest. SO I wouldn't be too sure on that.
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Master Moltar | Posted 11/6/2008 9:27:01 PM | message detail
c'mon samus/ganon combo of win awesome and high-fives

samus looking great ganon needs to step up
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hmm
well then
Xcarvenger | Posted 11/6/2008 9:27:01 PM | message detail
Samus only gained 10 votes that update.

more like 30, but I forgive you this time
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/6/2008 9:27:08 PM | message detail
If by ten you mean thirty, then sure

...Samus will still take this, but I don't think she'll finish at a level where people will argue her over, say, Snake.
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/6/2008 9:27:46 PM | message detail

HeroicTronBonne (#092)
Guys I need your help rallying Vincent



Vincent? Not Gordon? >_>
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Chaotic Mind | Posted 11/6/2008 9:28:18 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
transients | Posted 11/6/2008 9:28:48 PM | message detail
I call that your subtracting skills need work
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Chaotic Mind | Posted 11/6/2008 9:28:49 PM | message detail
Augh, scratch that, she was up 339 before, not 359. Whoops.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/6/2008 9:28:56 PM | message detail
Aside from having Samus > Mario in every year, you're clearly wrong about Vincent/Squall this year. Beating the absolute piss out of Yoshi > underperforming against jokefodder.

What's wrong with Samus > Mario in every year? Samus got 38% on Link in 2003....do you think she wasn't SFF'd? 38% on Link ought to be way way better than 40% on Mario. Further, she beat Squall with 58%, the same Squall that had just beaten Luigi 60-40 (worse than he beat Jill). This was the year of Square, when Aeris got over 46% on Sonic, something the much stronger Tifa couldn't get close to 2 years later. This was a year in which in addition to Luigi getting 60-40'd by Squall, Mario only got 55% against Shadow the Hedgehog, needed lots of cheating to beat Crono, and only got 38% against Sephiroth.

Nintendo did horrible in 2003, (New) Square did amazing, and Samus (fresh off of Metroid Prime) was the biggest exception.

As for the other years, 2004 is self-explanatory, and we have very little good data for 2005-7. I think Samus was a little stronger than Mario in those years, but I'm really not sure given the lack of data. This year Samus has looked clearly stronger than Mario so far, although Mario will no doubt easily beat her if they meet in the semis.

Basically, as people in this topic have said before, I think Mario > Samus within the Nintendo fanbase, and Samus > Mario outside of it. The Nintendo Boost thus helped Mario a lot more than Samus, and the Deboost hurt him a lot more than her.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
XxSoulxX | Posted 11/6/2008 9:30:38 PM | message detail
YES GORDON FREEMAN!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/6/2008 9:31:29 PM | message detail
Samus got 38% on Link in 2003....do you think she wasn't SFF'd?

If people are going to argue that WW Link gave Cloud a swing of more than a few percentage points, you'd better give Samus the same "overperformance" in her match.
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ZFS | Posted 11/6/2008 9:31:53 PM | message detail
I think Samus was a little stronger than Mario in those years, but I'm really not sure given the lack of data. This year Samus has looked clearly stronger than Mario so far, although Mario will no doubt easily beat her if they meet in the semis.

You'd be hard pressed to find a match since 2005 where Mario has looked weaker than Samus. He's looked stronger every year from the time of that one-on-one match - this year being the exception, primarily because of Mario being stuck with Nintendo characters for his matches.

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Chaotic Mind | Posted 11/6/2008 9:32:24 PM | message detail
Enjoy it while it lasts. GFNW is finally living up to his name this match, once the day vote hits.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/6/2008 9:33:27 PM | message detail
So Ganon seems to be our new bowser now

to be beaten by a guy who once lost to tina armstrong is an embaressment, regardless of excuses
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/6/2008 9:34:24 PM | message detail
Samus got about the same percentage on Link that Mario got on Sephiroth, and WW Link and Sephiroth were about equal that year based on their matches with Cloud. So the WW picture is already accounted for, and any SFF pushes Samus over the top. And of course, 58% on a Squall who'd just beaten Luigi with 60% is very very impressive.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
Xcarvenger | Posted 11/6/2008 9:34:44 PM | message detail
Samus got 30% on Link in 2007... I think she was SFF'd
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/6/2008 9:36:10 PM | message detail
Well, Samus is alive now

This match for first is over, now lets see if gordon can beat ganon!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/6/2008 9:36:54 PM | message detail
She also got, like, something closer to 20% against Link in 2006. It really depends on how the people SFFing her are feeling at the time, it seems. Strong Nintendo years seem to correlate with her getting beat down, and vice versa.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/6/2008 9:37:12 PM | message detail
Mario 30-20's Zelda while Samus 35-17.5's Ganondorf. Damn you Weakdorf
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transients | Posted 11/6/2008 9:37:52 PM | message detail
yeah, Zelda/'dorf reminds me of Luigi/Bowser - flipped upsidown over the years.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/6/2008 9:38:49 PM | message detail
You'd be hard pressed to find a match since 2005 where Mario has looked weaker than Samus. He's looked stronger every year from the time of that one-on-one match - this year being the exception, primarily because of Mario being stuck with Nintendo characters for his matches.

Mario has had a grand total of zero 1v1 matches since 2005, so there really are few comparisons to make here. From 2005 through until Samus/Snake 2006, I was convinced Mario was in fact stronger than Samus indirectly, but that match floored me....Snake had just beaten Sonic and Megaman worse than Mario had ever shown the capacity of doing, and then Samus went and put 53% on him? That match is more or less my basis for guessing that Samus > Mario from 2005 to 2007, although I acknowledge that it could be the reverse.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/6/2008 9:39:03 PM | message detail
So is Zelda stronger then Ganon now? I always thought Ganon was the 2nd strongest Zelda character
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/6/2008 9:39:11 PM | message detail
Mario 30-20's Zelda while Samus 35-17.5's Ganondorf. Damn you Weakdorf

For what it's worth, Zelda got WAY closer to Samus in the match that they actually had. Don't know how much people take it for because lol female bracket, but I wouldn't expect it to change too much. Zelda seems to have that rSFF thing down pat.
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 11/6/2008 9:40:41 PM | message detail
Apparently the Brawl Deboost really killed Ganondorf, but yet Zelda seems unfazed by it.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/6/2008 9:40:43 PM | message detail
Hey, my steadfast confidence in Zelda > Ganon years ago has been looking better and better!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/6/2008 9:42:31 PM | message detail
Snake had just beaten Sonic and Megaman worse than Mario had ever shown the capacity of doing, and then Samus went and put 53% on him?

I couldn't see Mario failing to exceed that. If Samus sapped any of Snake's trailer support, Mario would've truly obliterated it. I wouldn't have been surprised to see Snake doing less than a percentage point better than their 2k5 match in 2k6.
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Master Moltar | Posted 11/6/2008 9:42:33 PM | message detail
get this zelda > ganon mess outta here

if you realized samus >>> mario, then you'd realize that zelda isn't as hot as you think!
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hmm
well then
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/6/2008 9:42:45 PM | message detail
Probably since Ganondorf doesn't show up in Twilight Princess until the very end, and he's also not that great in Brawl.
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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 11/6/2008 9:42:49 PM | message detail
People honestly think that Brawl "deboosted" votes for characters like ganon and such? Give me a break.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/6/2008 9:43:38 PM | message detail
if you realized samus >>> mario, then you'd realize that zelda isn't as hot as you think!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2559
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/6/2008 9:44:05 PM | message detail
Snake had just beaten Sonic and Megaman worse than Mario had ever shown the capacity of doing, and then Samus went and put 53% on him?

Didn't the explanation for that Samus stealing all of Snake's Brawl hype votes? >_>
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/6/2008 9:44:14 PM | message detail
wait a minute exactly what are we arguing about
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Xcarvenger | Posted 11/6/2008 9:44:26 PM | message detail
So is Zelda stronger then Ganon now?

according to Link's SFF, the answer is yes -- Link got 87.9% on Ganon and 86.8% on Zelda >_>
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Master Moltar | Posted 11/6/2008 9:45:26 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2559

Don't know how much people take it for because lol female bracket


Okay, okay, so Zelda is better dealing with SFF, but in non-SFF matches Ganon is clearly the superior
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hmm
well then
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/6/2008 9:46:30 PM | message detail
Okay, okay, so Zelda is better dealing with SFF, but in non-SFF matches Ganon is clearly the superior

What kind of match are we thinking Zelda v Ganon is? <________<
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Master Moltar | Posted 11/6/2008 9:50:09 PM | message detail
What kind of match are we thinking Zelda v Ganon is? <________<

A Peach/Bowser like one I would hope!

(even i cringed when i typed that)
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hmm
well then
Gaddswell | Posted 11/6/2008 9:51:02 PM | message detail
At least Ganon stalled there!
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/6/2008 9:51:54 PM | message detail

From: Gaddswell | #492
At least Ganon stalled there!



But if all Ganon can do is STALL in the Nintendo Power Hour, it isn't looking good for him.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/6/2008 9:51:57 PM | message detail
Ganondorf "stalling" Gordon Freeman.

Delicious.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/6/2008 9:53:37 PM | message detail
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/6/2008 9:54:30 PM | message detail
I couldn't see Mario failing to exceed that. If Samus sapped any of Snake's trailer support, Mario would've truly obliterated it. I wouldn't have been surprised to see Snake doing less than a percentage point better than their 2k5 match in 2k6.

Sure, Mario would very likely have done better on Snake, but that's an SFF scenario- do you think he would have put up 55% on Sonic and Megaman that year? Sonic beat Crono, and Mario couldn't break 54% on Crono the previous year. Even granting that Mario would have exceeded Snake's performance on Sonic/MM, I can't see it being by much, considering how badly Sonic and Crono beat Luigi and Bowser. There is the explanation that says that Samus SFF'd away Snake's Brawl support, but while I initially embraced it (anything to make Samus look bad and Crono look good!), it just seems like flimsy, after-the-fact, justification.

For what it's worth, Mario got 43.35% on Sephiroth last year with Fox in the poll, and Samus got 41.13% on Cloud last year with Megaman in the poll. I'd say those are pretty close performances, with a slight edge perhaps to Samus, because Megaman at least ended with over 18%, while Fox was SFF'd down to 8%.
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Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
Gaddswell | Posted 11/6/2008 9:54:53 PM | message detail
Oh yeah, where would this put Gordon at through extrapolation?

And how much does he beat Frog by?
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ZFS | Posted 11/6/2008 9:55:24 PM | message detail
Mario has had a grand total of zero 1v1 matches since 2005, so there really are few comparisons to make here. From 2005 through until Samus/Snake 2006, I was convinced Mario was in fact stronger than Samus indirectly, but that match floored me....Snake had just beaten Sonic and Megaman worse than Mario had ever shown the capacity of doing, and then Samus went and put 53% on him? That match is more or less my basis for guessing that Samus > Mario from 2005 to 2007, although I acknowledge that it could be the reverse.

Given that Snake's boost was almost entirely from his announcement in Brawl, what Samus did doesn't entirely reflect her strength. The Snake that faced Samus definitely wasn't the same Snake that had beaten Mega Man and Sonic easy - it's a really good bet he lost a good chunk of the Nintendo support he had gained from the announcement. If that's the case, there's no way I don't see Mario wrecking Snake even worse there. He'd be the more likely of the two to sap that newfound Brawl support - and its one of the primary reasons many argued against taking Snake over Mario pre-contest.

You do have data from 2007, though it's not as conclusive as a 1-on-1's would be, but Samus definitely didn't look like the better of the two here. She is probably stronger this year by a bit, mostly because of Nintendo having a down year, but not by anything all that significant - Mario's draw against Nintendo characters this year has made him look worse than he really is, though he's clearly been stronger before.

I mean your inequality did have him equal to Crono (come on now).

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Xcarvenger | Posted 11/6/2008 9:55:49 PM | message detail
it's too bad the curse of NN breaker has befallen upon Ganon (Vincent, you're next. watch out)
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/6/2008 9:55:58 PM | message detail
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