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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 619

Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/3/2008 1:47:29 PM | message detail
You missed lol Magus.

Also, after Mewtwo's bomb, Sora seems to be the favorite to advance. I refuse to believe that Mewtwo's the favorite after looking as pathetic as he did.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
hailEC | Posted 11/3/2008 1:48:37 PM | message detail

and... what's the current consensus on Squall/Cloud/Sora/Mewtwo? this had to have gotten a truckload of debate after watching Mewtwo bomb.


Most people are rocking Cloud > Sora right now, still a decent amount who think Mewtwo can do it (Cloud SFFing Mewtwo was being thrown around... yes I'm serious), and then there's ExTha who says Mewtwo is an absolute lock.

Pikachu isn't that crazy last year, as I've attempted to explain many, many times, but no one ever seems to want to listen, or care. The round before Pika/Dante/Leon/Ammy, was Pika/Vivi/Tidus/Leon. All RPG characters + Leon. Works pretty well with how we've seen characters overperform when they have a clearly distinct fanbase from the other 3. So you go from Pika being hindered from the sore thumb effect, to the next round, being the beneficiary of it. Then throw in terrible Dante/Leon sprites that completely ruin their badass images, and well, yeah.

Still REFAQs has a lot to do with how Leon performed in his match, but yeah.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
HaRRicH | Posted 11/3/2008 1:49:22 PM | message detail
Sora > Sonic has a good chance if Big Boss is replaced by some non-MGS/FF character.

Not sure if I follow...are you calling for BB/Sora LFF? If so, does it favor Sora? Either way, you could also argue BB would have a good chance if Sora wasn't there; BB beat Kirby worse than Sora beat Fox in R1 this year, so -- probably depending on the pic -- if you give Sora a chance, Big Boss deserves one too.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2008 1:53:07 PM | message detail
And don't get too comfortable thinking about Seph > Sonic, you blue blur junkies, Auron can still has a chance to pull it off, even if he shouldn't be considered the favorite. He's owning Sonic now. Hard.

Well, he beat Ryu worse than this and still lost. Sure, Sephy's not Cloud when it comes to SFF, so that gives Auron some hope.

And the general consensus on Squall/Cloud/Sora/Mewtwo is Cloud > Sora due to Mewtwo sucking and Sora resisting SFF better than Squall.

Need to check out those pics if you haven't, tranny! Could explain some results!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2008 1:53:57 PM | message detail
Man, we gotta stop discussing LFF for everything! This is ridiculous!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2008 1:54:29 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero just cut Sonic! Yessssss
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/3/2008 1:54:52 PM | message detail
The round before Pika/Dante/Leon/Ammy, was Pika/Vivi/Tidus/Leon. All RPG characters + Leon. Works pretty well with how we've seen characters overperform when they have a clearly distinct fanbase from the other 3. So you go from Pika being hindered from the sore thumb effect, to the next round, being the beneficiary of it. Then throw in terrible Dante/Leon sprites that completely ruin their badass images, and well, yeah.

Ya know, that's what I said yesterday. At least, the part about Dante and Leon's crappy sprites hindering their image and causing them to underperform, while Pika overperformed due to a classic sprite.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
charmander6000 | Posted 11/3/2008 1:59:39 PM | message detail
I demand opinions on the last week and some of matches even though no one will oblige!

Since you included lol Mario characters I'll begin with Liquid > Luigi

Liquid > Luigi Huge fanbase overlap between Luigi and Bowser, Phoenix lead over Bowser for a while. When comparing Phoenix Wright and Liquid's performances Bowser > Luigi in a 50.04/49.96 match.
Mario > MMX X lead over Mario for a large portion of the day in a 3 Nintendo match, people are considering that Mario will perform better next round because he will SFF Luigi rather than get leeched by Zelda and suffer a bit less of a blow.
Samus > Ganondorf Samus did well, Ganondorf let Frog get a little close.
Vincent > Gordon Pic factor? Falco died in the sense of real competition. Vincent is ready to attempt to upset Samus next round.
Crono > L-Block Crono destroyed L-Block while Ryu still breaks 40% against noble nine characters.
Pikachu > Alucard Pikachu beats Arthas harder, but Captain Falcon almost cost him first. People hope sprite Pikachu can finally kill off L-Block.
Mega Man > WCC Mega Man did well against the joke character and Tidus managed to outdo his 2k4 percent against him as well. Nero dies in the sense of real competition.
Solid Snake > Zero Snake SFF? Ryu again giving Zero an easy when there, but Vivi put up a hard fight.
Squall > Sora Squall doesn't SFF Sora while Fox leeches Yoshi giving Square a double win.
Cloud > Mewtwo Mewtwo almost loses to Midna and lets Pac-Man do much better compare to last round. Some blame on an overperformance last round, some say Cloud SFF Mewtwo. Next round Sora is the favourite followed by Mewtwo then Squall.
Kirby > Master Chief Kirby being the odd ball wins here combined with MC not looking as great as he did last round and massive BB/Raiden overlap causing them to knock out each other.
Dante > Leon I guess they didn't SFF each other last year making people believe that sprite Pikachu could have some power. Leon uses RE boost to do much better. Should be an interesting match next round.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 167/240 Today's Match: Sonic > Auron
HaRRicH | Posted 11/3/2008 2:01:24 PM | message detail
(Cloud SFFing Mewtwo was being thrown around... yes I'm serious)

Haha, I think I was the first guy to mention this. I just ultimately don't buy that you can easily double Ness one match and barely beat Midna the next without something else in the mix. Likewise, I'm pretty sure Pac-Man did ~8% better on Mewtwo this round than the last round.

Cloud SFF'ing Mewtwo feels weird, but they're two of the biggest RPGs around and are each very important in their series. Furthermore, RPG-fans here are going to care more for Cloud/Square/FF/FF7/KH than Mewtwo/Nintendo/Pokemon/R-B-Y/SSBM. Coupled with what I mentioned above, I think there's reason to believe Cloud affected Mewtwo...as odd as it feels.


Midna wouldn't have doubled Ness, Mewtwo should have beaten Pac-Man 63-37 again instead of 55-45, and Cloud/Mewtwo overlap isn't terribly unreasonable...odd, but I think the results can justify this theory as considerable until further notice.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
transience | Posted 11/3/2008 2:03:29 PM | message detail
good stuff from everyone.

what's the consensus on Dante/Leon/Kirby/Master Chief? seems like Dante > Kirby is a very possible choice.
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
transience | Posted 11/3/2008 2:03:49 PM | message detail
which is friggin' weird considering how Dante got killed by Chief last year. yeah, L-Block and Snake, but still.
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
transience | Posted 11/3/2008 2:04:41 PM | message detail
Haha, I think I was the first guy to mention this. I just ultimately don't buy that you can easily double Ness one match and barely beat Midna the next without something else in the mix. Likewise, I'm pretty sure Pac-Man did ~8% better on Mewtwo this round than the last round.

what's up, 2k7 Fox. when you've got nothing but one fanbase and you're the preferred guy, you can rack up big percentages.
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
charmander6000 | Posted 11/3/2008 2:05:22 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure Ness got SFF last round.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 167/240 Today's Match: Sonic > Auron
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2008 2:06:55 PM | message detail
It's not Cloud/Mewtwo overlap! It's Midna LFFing Mewtwo better than Ness did! Cloud and Pac-Man had nothing to do with it!

People hope sprite Pikachu can finally kill off L-Block.

Oh right, especially after Leon/Dante yesterday, people are hoping Pikachu has a habit of sprite overperformance (and Leon and Dante's bad pics are partially to blame for round 3 last year as well) and can beat out L-Block, especially after it sorta looked vulnerable against Crono.

Oh right, and I called for Snake to need 43-45% in his match to be ready to compete with Mario and Samus. BT said if Snake got that much he'd close his account right then. He didn't.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2008 2:08:26 PM | message detail
what's the consensus on Dante/Leon/Kirby/Master Chief? seems like Dante > Kirby is a very possible choice.

I think a lot of people are still throwing around Kirby > Master Chief. They're still a little wary of Dante/Leon overlap. I'm still thinking Kirby gets first regardless of who's there. He's got the same advantage that he had last round (and that Big Boss had over him in round 1): He's gonna stand out like crazy and be completely distinct.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/3/2008 2:11:53 PM | message detail
The only thing I can see standing in Kirby's way right now is a possible fanbase split with Leon. Most people don't realize this, but Mr. Kennedy has had a million seller on the last three Nintendo consoles. I still expect Kirby to place, but it may make the battle for first a bit tougher.
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Yoblazer: Bracket Status: http://img60.imageshack.us/img60/8713/bracketcz7.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 11/3/2008 2:12:58 PM | message detail
you can't compare Kirby to Leon without mentioning Dante though. Chief may stand out the most there, but Kirby ain't far behind.

Pikachu sprite overperformance? come on now. besides, it looks like we're not getting sprites this year from the sticky?
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
hailEC | Posted 11/3/2008 2:13:32 PM | message detail
what's the consensus on Dante/Leon/Kirby/Master Chief? seems like Dante > Kirby is a very possible choice.

Pretty sure there's absolutely no consensus... as it should be. I'm rocking Kirby > Dante, with Kirby > MC being extremely likely as well. I don't see how Kirby doesn't finish first there, and I don't see how Leon places.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
vcharon | Posted 11/3/2008 2:13:42 PM | message detail
So much for Auron needing any sort of magic number to hold off Sonic's ASV (non-existent) vote.
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:>
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2008 2:13:51 PM | message detail
Well, the thing is that Leon doesn't have Nintendoish trends. He shares the same trends as the rest of RE: Strong at night, not so strong during the day. He's not QUITE as bad during the day, it seems. Sharing a console =/= Sharing a fanbase

Not discounting the possibility, but I don't see it as likely. I mean, we might as well start talking about Dante/MC LFF then since DMC4 is on the 360.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2008 2:14:52 PM | message detail
besides, it looks like we're not getting sprites this year from the sticky?

Well, we can have sprites as long as all the characters have them. Conveniently for Pikachu, all his opponents do.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/3/2008 2:15:38 PM | message detail
Yeah, I don't expect much overlap (if any) at all, but if Chief or Dante have a good day, any little thing can totally switch the order of those four around.
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Yoblazer: Bracket Status: http://img60.imageshack.us/img60/8713/bracketcz7.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
hailEC | Posted 11/3/2008 2:17:03 PM | message detail
Pikachu sprite overperformance? come on now. besides, it looks like we're not getting sprites this year from the sticky?

You mean against L, not last year right? If so I agree it's pretty ridiculous. Anyway, yeah, Bacon decided to scratch the sprites in favor of people just making full match pics of whatever sort. Guess he's too lazy to even paste together 4 images! seriously though, I'd be mega pissed if I had planned my bracket around sprite round 3rd round and he did this. Can't believe there wasn't more outrage. Probably because brackets are dead, but oh well.

Oh yeah, and my original bracket is on the leaderboard now. The one with L-Block losing in the semi's. Damn you tranny and your "L-block goes out 2nd round or wins the whole thing." DAMN YOU

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all hail ec your lord and savior
transience | Posted 11/3/2008 2:20:07 PM | message detail
hate to say I told you so !

I meant that the idea of Pikachu overperforming with a sprite is just ludicrous. that is such after-the-fact reasoning that I don't even know where to start debunking it.

I guess this means no Sprite Snake - let me guess, Turtle backs out of two account bets now?
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
CrazyAznChick | Posted 11/3/2008 2:20:46 PM | message detail
Chief also has had bad pics the first 2 rounds (round 2 especially), so if he gets a good pic it may help him next round
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hailEC | Posted 11/3/2008 2:21:41 PM | message detail
oh... well it was only a minor factor in the larger picture (getting owned from sore thumb to benefitting from it). Actually I didn't even mention Pika's sprite, just how awful Leon and Dante looked hurting their badass appeal. Probably weren't talking to me though.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2008 2:21:57 PM | message detail
Oh right, and I called for Snake to need 43-45% in his match to be ready to compete with Mario and Samus.

And *I* said that would be enough for him to take on Sephiroth! But anyway who's getting on the Snake > Cloud in the semis train it's an upset kinda year I'm feelin'
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
transience | Posted 11/3/2008 2:22:52 PM | message detail
Snake > Cloud more like Cloud > Snake

in the finals
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
hailEC | Posted 11/3/2008 2:23:30 PM | message detail
Cloud > Snake more like Samus > Seph

in our hearts

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all hail ec your lord and savior
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2008 2:23:58 PM | message detail
I meant that the idea of Pikachu overperforming with a sprite is just ludicrous. that is such after-the-fact reasoning that I don't even know where to start debunking it.

...No less ludicrous than hoping for Joke LFF ousting L-Block in round 1. People are just grabbing onto whatever gives them the slightest hope it'll get eliminated.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
HaRRicH | Posted 11/3/2008 2:37:04 PM | message detail
what's up, 2k7 Fox. when you've got nothing but one fanbase and you're the preferred guy, you can rack up big percentages.

Right, and Fox also showed he could not be badly hindered by Yoshi. Mewtwo showed he was able to do well within SFF-situations by competing with Bowser last year (though Toad changes it a bit) and easily doubling Ness...


I'm pretty sure Ness got SFF last round.

...which is why I'm bringing up that Midna likely wouldn't have SFF'd Ness, especially not like that. If you do that well in SFF-situations, typically it will pan out where you are an obvious step ahead of the SFF'd like Fox did. Mewtwo beat Ness down and should be a step above Ness, and Midna is at best on Ness's level.


It's not Cloud/Mewtwo overlap! It's Midna LFFing Mewtwo better than Ness did! Cloud and Pac-Man had nothing to do with it!

I would be okay with all that except that I don't think Midna can go 49-51 with Mewtwo fairly.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
red sox 777 | Posted 11/3/2008 2:39:47 PM | message detail
L-Block's best chances to be eliminated:

1. The finals. He's facing a repeat of last year, and I don't think he can get a massive rally across the internet like last year. He needs it, because retaining his standard 40,000 votes would have left him around 20,000 votes below Link last year.

2. Samus/Crono/Vincent/L-Block. L-Block ought to be the favorite here, but Samus/Crono/Vincent is a very strong pack, and the joke characters don't look so transitive this year. Sandbag isn't L-Block, but he's getting pressed down to 15% today by a weaker pack.

There's enough strength in the semifinals to eliminate L, but the distribution isn't as good as the quarterfinals: Link will take up a large percentage, so if L can survive the quarterfinals, he should make it to the finals.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
HaRRicH | Posted 11/3/2008 2:49:49 PM | message detail
I guess this means no Sprite Snake - let me guess, Turtle backs out of two account bets now?

He was able to technically get out of our bet since Zero advances...but it's going to be real fun watching Solid try to beat Mega/Zero combined next round. I'm wanting him to do a sig-bet with me over whether or not Solid gets 3% of Mega/Zero...and I made this offer before the whole free-form-thing. He's currently thinking about it.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2008 3:01:26 PM | message detail
I would be okay with all that except that I don't think Midna can go 49-51 with Mewtwo fairly.

Doesn't matter what you think! Seriously, Mewtwo just got overhyped based on two overrated performances, and Midna got underrated based on two bad performances last year, the latter of which wasn't her fault and I'm starting to think Kratos Aurion LFF'd her considering how badly Scorpion whooped her.

Sticking close to LFF'd Bowser isn't that impressive anymore, especially with how pathetic he's been of late. Phoenix Wright got closer to Bowser than Mewtwo did, for cryin' out loud! And he just beat up on a bad fourpack. Besides, what did Mewtwo get on Ryu last year? *checks*

40.73%

Meta Knight got 41.55% on him this year. Now unless you think a whole lot of Meta Knight, Mewtwo's probably a low midcarder (I'm sure someone will cry "LFF" on Mewtwo last year, but nevertheless, he wouldn't have done much better) Midna probably is, too. And the only reason I might agree with you and say Midna wouldn't SFF Ness as badly is because she's not in Smash Bros. Nothing more.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
HaRRicH | Posted 11/3/2008 3:42:55 PM | message detail
So Mewtwo did about the same against Ryu with Bowser and Toad in the same poll than MK by himself while the board clings to him to eliminate L-Block. That should say something. Also, Phoenix looks better than before and I bet Luigi was able to bother Bowser more than Toad/Mewtwo.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 11/3/2008 3:47:53 PM | message detail
Phoenix Wright got closer to Bowser than Mewtwo did,

Wasnt that because Bowser got the unlucky draw of Getting a Mario Brother in that poll?
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Warning, there is a bear right behind you.
Ride Him.
Japago | Posted 11/3/2008 3:51:07 PM | message detail
Kinda a late, but yesterday's match has kinda made me wonder about Riku. Where would you guys peg him now? He's looked absolutely awful since 2006. Beating Ryu Hayabusa in the second round seems very unimpressive now since evidence in their match this year points to Snake crippling Hayabusa. That and of course him getting smashed by Leon and Dante this year.

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-Heals severely dry skin -18 hour moisturization -Fragrance free -With Vitamin E
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2008 3:56:19 PM | message detail
So Mewtwo did about the same against Ryu with Bowser and Toad in the same poll than MK by himself while the board clings to him to eliminate L-Block.

I really doubt the anti-L-Block embargo really helped Meta Knight to any significant degree.

Also, Phoenix looks better than before and I bet Luigi was able to bother Bowser more than Toad/Mewtwo.

Well, the point is that getting somewhat close to Bowser isn't exactly an accomplishment these days, especially in an LFF situation. Besides, we've only ever seen Mewtwo in LFF situations. We'll find out what he's really worth this time. He'll have no excuses.

At this point, I have a hard time believing Mewtwo's much stronger than Pikachu indirectly (if at all). I think Ike and Falcon should probably both be relatively close to Midna, and Pikachu did better against them than Mewtwo did against her. Pikachu looks to be basically a solid midcarder, but nothing outstanding.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2008 4:24:17 PM | message detail
Auron's lead over Sonic is now over 5000.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2008 4:24:35 PM | message detail
over

benchmark

etc
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2008 4:36:54 PM | message detail
Sonic drops under 30% and loses an update to Sub-Zero at the same time!

Great day!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
transience | Posted 11/3/2008 4:38:18 PM | message detail
Auron over Sonic next round come onnnnn

I wanted to take this upset really badly but wasn't sure if Sandbag would move on, oh well
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2008 4:39:11 PM | message detail
I doubt it would've mattered if Magus was here or not.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/3/2008 4:39:20 PM | message detail
Sephiroth > Kratos is the likely pick for next round, right?
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/3/2008 4:41:15 PM | message detail
Yeah, Kratos should advance over Tifa unless Sephy doesn't SFF her at all. The board vote will be really interesting. Sephy and Kratos have two of the worst board votes of anyone. Tifa's is really good. Basically, if she's not beating Kratos right away, she's dead because she'll be going down come sunrise and he'll be going way up.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/3/2008 4:46:58 PM | message detail
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg

wtf is that thing in the back
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transience | Posted 11/3/2008 4:53:36 PM | message detail
yeah, I thought the same thing. Tifa could look great here early.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
BDawg | Posted 11/3/2008 4:56:02 PM | message detail
If it somehow ended up Seph/Tifa/Auron/Sonic then it would be time for some SFF aided redemption. Or else Tifa would be driven into the ground and Sonic still finishes second.
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Should I start running now?
hailEC | Posted 11/3/2008 4:58:54 PM | message detail
So is everyone willing to admit Auron > Sonic would be happening regardless of Magus or not yet? I've been patient all day! Tifa winning tomorrow would be the worst result ever, by the way. No chance of Auron coming in 2nd next round if that happens.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
transience | Posted 11/3/2008 5:00:53 PM | message detail
I'd say it's a tossup.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com/samusvsganondorfvsvincentvsgordon.jpg
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