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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 619

LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 9:56:52 PM | message detail
Some can't wait to die!

Pray...NOW!

As you wish.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

~*aprosenf's poll script*~
http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2008 9:57:14 PM | message detail
Crono >>>> Sonic
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CB7 Score: 176/240
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2008 9:57:45 PM | message detail
ah what the hell I wanted to make this with Sandbag's trophy description as the header
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Just Some Person | Posted 11/2/2008 9:57:59 PM | message detail
This is your story.

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Food.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/2/2008 9:59:49 PM | message detail
This is my story. And you're not part of it.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 10:00:35 PM | message detail
We've already had two topics with Sandbag's trophy description! We need more topics with FFX headers!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2008 10:01:18 PM | message detail
We would have gotten more if these LOSERS would have gotten Rikku and Yuna in!
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 10:06:17 PM | message detail
Or if Tidus were still in this!

darn you wcc
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2008 10:07:24 PM | message detail
And by the way, since (amazingly) no one has said it yet...

lol Magus

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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
The_Ocelot2 | Posted 11/2/2008 10:07:42 PM | message detail
Too bad Seph is gonna murder Auron next round
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Go Ducks Go!
http://img.imgcake.com/fallout_3.jpg
Lopen | Posted 11/2/2008 10:08:17 PM | message detail
If KH2 was all Auron and Tifa had, Tifa should outright drop based on her performance there.

She was atrocious in that game. I'm just sayin.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe
red sox 777 | Posted 11/2/2008 10:08:47 PM | message detail
Crono > Sephiroth let's do this!
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
hellfire104 | Posted 11/2/2008 10:09:24 PM | message detail
murder. Sonic has very Kirby like circumstances in this contest. He gets to have:

Sephiroth, Kratos, and Auron, then,

Master Chief, Dante, Sephiroth


He is a kiddy character in a pool of mature characters.
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Point Total/Rank: 185/240, 77%, T35th
My Bracket Says: Sonic > Auron Prediction: Auron > Sonic
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2008 10:09:45 PM | message detail
She was atrocious in that game. I'm just sayin.

Why? I really can't remember much other than her looking for Cloud and beating up some bad guys.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
The_Ocelot2 | Posted 11/2/2008 10:10:32 PM | message detail
Random Sonic cut
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Go Ducks Go!
http://img.imgcake.com/fallout_3.jpg
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/2/2008 10:10:34 PM | message detail
hey there sonic
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 10:11:13 PM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Leon K. | Riku | Dante | Hogger
EBV | 32.64% | 22.09% | 32.71% | 12.55% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 32.07% | 22.24% | 31.84% | 13.85% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 31.24% | 20.34% | 34.22% | 14.20% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 30.33% | 22.98% | 35.47% | 11.27% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 30.20% | 22.92% | 33.16% | 13.72% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 30.89% | 22.68% | 34.36% | 12.07% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 30.62% | 22.26% | 34.77% | 12.34% | (22:00-24:00)

Strong board vote and Power Hour for Leon. He dropped off a bit after that, but he was pretty consistent all the way through. Riku would've been extremely consistent if not for that first night vote. Dante did great during the early morning and was much stronger than Leon throughout the day. Hogger's best time was the first night vote, but man, his early morning vote was abysmal.

Yesterday's stats:

Dante – 50.00%
Leon Kennedy – 47.60%
Riku – 39.60%
Hogger – 27.83%

Division 7, Lower Half

Dante – 50.00%
Leon Kennedy – 47.60%
Riku – 39.60%
Siegfried Schtauffen – 28.61%
Hogger – 27.83%
Ramza Beoulve – 27.69%
Laharl – 27.30%
Captain MacMillan – 24.19%

Pretty straightforward stats.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
Lopen | Posted 11/2/2008 10:11:15 PM | message detail
*Minor KH2 Spoilers*

She had a very gagworthy lecture about hearts and light after the Sephiroth fight.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe
creativename | Posted 11/2/2008 10:11:44 PM | message detail
2006 was probably Sonic's best year ever. I find it hard to believe the year four ways started, people randomly realized Sonic's games suck.

That's a good point. (I think Karma Hunter was trying to say the same thing, but in a much more confusing way that I didn't understand at first)

Still, I think we can safely say that SonicSUCK can't be all format-induced - it must largely have to do with lack of well-received/high selling games, and falling levels of exposure relative to other characters in the recent video game boom. Sonic isn't the icon he was just a few years ago anymore.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2008 10:12:49 PM | message detail
Why? I really can't remember much other than her looking for Cloud and beating up some bad guys.

****ing needy whore

BACK OFF WOMAN AURON'S THE ONLY MAN FOR ME
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 10:13:19 PM | message detail
I dunno, Sandbag looks like a pretty legit midcarder (at least in this format). All this tells me is that Subby/Magus would probably be a good match, and I'd take Sub-Zero.

Uhhh...Sandbag vs. Master Hand: Who you got?

I hate to say this, but we need to see Master Hand again.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/2/2008 10:13:59 PM | message detail
Uhhh...Sandbag vs. Master Hand: Who you got?

Sandbag. Beating Kuja doesn't really mean much
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http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 10:14:09 PM | message detail
By the way, if you've played Sonic Next-Gen, Sonic Team deserves to drop for that.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
PegasusLover123 | Posted 11/2/2008 10:14:43 PM | message detail
Yeah, fortunately for Crono though, he'll have new exposure when December comes.
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BC: 0774-7368-9787 name: EDS "Casual player" so dont count me in for no item matches.
wavedash101 | Posted 11/2/2008 10:14:52 PM | message detail
Its seems everyone had a gag worthy lecture about hearts or light. She compounded it.

Auron did no such thing, cause he knows thats ****
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash!
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2008 10:15:39 PM | message detail
Eh, I'm still faithful that this is the final year of 4ways. That being the case, the only joke character we ever need to see again is L-Block.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/2/2008 10:15:57 PM | message detail
Sure, beating Kuja doesn't mean much, but IMO, neither does edging out CT's answer to Donkey Kong (AKA, Magus).
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
Lopen | Posted 11/2/2008 10:16:38 PM | message detail
I found Tifa's way more gagworthy than any of Sora's.

And also, I'd take Master Hand > Sandbag pretty easily, and I'd take Kuja > Sandbag 1v1. Sandbag may have tendencies of legit characters but I still don't think it's entirely legit and I don't think it'd hit 50% against much anything.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/2/2008 10:16:42 PM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | #027
Sure, beating Kuja doesn't mean much, but IMO, neither does edging out CT's answer to Donkey Kong (AKA, Magus).



Magus once beat Ganondorf and put up 35% against Link. He may not be as strong as he once was, but he's still a midcard.
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/2/2008 10:17:48 PM | message detail
2006 was probably Sonic's best year ever. I find it hard to believe the year four ways started, people randomly realized Sonic's games suck.

It wasn't his best year so much as it was Crono's worst. He did just as expected on Vincent and wound up equal to Mega Man in the stats again. If 2006 was Sonic's best year, that means Mega Man boosted with him from 2005, and that doesn't make any sense. Sonic stayed consistent from 2005-2006, then dropped off last year, and even moreso this year.

As for this Auron talk, I don't think he's moved anywhere from where he's been the last 4 years. The near NNers is still

Squall/Vincent
Auron
Ganondorf/Tifa
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
Lopen | Posted 11/2/2008 10:19:05 PM | message detail
Ganondorf will be exposed as an uber fraud next year, believe.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/2/2008 10:19:07 PM | message detail
Magus once beat Ganondorf and put up 35% against Link. He may not be as strong as he once was, but he's still a midcard.

And he decided to suck ass in every single match he's been in since 2005. Hence my calling him CT's answer to Donkey Kong. Although DK has always sucked...
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/2/2008 10:20:22 PM | message detail
Ganondorf can be easily explained. He's done nothing but suck since the Villain Contest, and all we saw of him in 2004 was losing to Link worse than CATS did.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
red sox 777 | Posted 11/2/2008 10:21:12 PM | message detail
I'd take Sandbag over Master Hand. I was initially going to say that Magus is way out of Kuja's league- which is true- but Sandbag only beat Magus in a 4-way. Nonetheless, Sandbag seems to have a much more appealing character than MH. Sandbag has those eyes....MH is as bland as can be.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 10:21:28 PM | message detail
Yeah, if Sonic has updates like that all night, I don't care what kind of day vote he has. He won't be comin' back unless Auron just stops getting votes.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
Xcarvenger | Posted 11/2/2008 10:22:25 PM | message detail
Ganondorf will be exposed as an uber fraud next year, believe.

Hell, he'll lose to Gordon Freeman next round, believe.
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Lopen | Posted 11/2/2008 10:22:46 PM | message detail
Ya know, Sonic just randomly cut two updates ago. He might have updates like that all night but it's not like he's just fallen over since the power hour let up.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 10:23:18 PM | message detail
That random cut was Auron's fault more than Sonic's.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
Lopen | Posted 11/2/2008 10:24:04 PM | message detail
Sandbag has those eyes....MH is as bland as can be.

The eyes are what doom it!

Master Hand is a much better entrant "for the lulz." No one likes Sandbag as a character it just has a really fickle joke fanbase.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe
red sox 777 | Posted 11/2/2008 10:25:03 PM | message detail
Ganondorf will soon be exposed as a fraud just like all the other previous Noble Nine breakers. And then it will be Vincent's turn- no matter how many proofs of the reality of his strength Vincent has given, the wrath of the Noble Nine shall fall upon him yet. The Noble Nine will not lose (1v1 matches) and all who dare to assume in arrogance the title of #1 Noble Nine Breaker shall fall!
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
creativename | Posted 11/2/2008 10:25:04 PM | message detail
Hey, just noticed I'm back on the leaderboard again :) (#46)

I have Sonic>Auron so I'll fall off again after this match if Auron wins. But I don't really give much of a crap about the leaderboard, so GO AURON! Pound that hedgehog into the ground baby.
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Xcarvenger | Posted 11/2/2008 10:25:07 PM | message detail
who nominates sandbag anyway
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For all your board 8 needs: www.board8.wikia.com
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2008 10:26:08 PM | message detail
Hell, he'll lose to Gordon Freeman next round, believe.

Most of my crazy upsets have panned out this contest and this will be no difference
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/2/2008 10:26:19 PM | message detail
At any rate, I'm glad to see Sandbag getting pummeled. Makes that loser Fraudus look bad (and why shouldn't he?!).
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
ZFS | Posted 11/2/2008 10:28:59 PM | message detail
If MAGUS can go toe to toe with Ganon, then Auron would have no problem.

What

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http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif
creativename | Posted 11/2/2008 10:29:43 PM | message detail
Oh, and on the stats page, the Dante having more people picking him for 2nd is really weird. With 30% of those people Leon for 1st pickers, and 41% picking Dante for 2nd, that's another 30% that picked either Riku or Hogger - and obviously can't be too many Hogger pickers.

So it seems almost as many had Riku in 1st as had Leon in 1st. Interesting.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/2/2008 10:30:41 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #045
If MAGUS can go toe to toe with Ganon, then Auron would have no problem.

What



Magus beat Ganon before
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ZFS | Posted 11/2/2008 10:31:05 PM | message detail
well then

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http://i33.tinypic.com/2s0xn3o.gif
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 10:31:59 PM | message detail
Oh, and on the stats page, the Dante having more people picking him for 2nd is really weird

Order confusion...yet again.

Magus beating Ganondorf in 2003 doesn't really mean anything. Ganondorf didn't really get strong until 2005. After all, the guy barely beat Tidus that year.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
Xcarvenger | Posted 11/2/2008 10:33:48 PM | message detail
So it seems almost as many had Riku in 1st as had Leon in 1st. Interesting.

people can't read


Magus beat Ganon before

Ganon beat Auron before
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