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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 618

nintendogirl1 | Posted 11/2/2008 3:07:37 PM | message detail
Posted by Safer Sephiroth 777 #149
Hey what the Correct and Partial % mean after each match?


Correct is the % of people who predicted that character in first if they finished first or second if they finished second. Partial is the amount of people who predicted that character going finishing in the top 2 in that match, but in the wrong position.
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That was worded really badly.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/2/2008 3:11:10 PM | message detail
Wasn't BT going on forever about how anyone who took Dante > Leon in this match clearly wasn't around last year, and only a fool could make such a pick, etc. etc?

LOL BT


lol indeed

This just raises even more questions about what the hell happened last year with Pikachu. Maybe Ammastasdfasaseru was the one doing all the damage to Leon and Dante somehow?
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
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charmander6000 | Posted 11/2/2008 3:13:36 PM | message detail
Sprite Pikachu > L-Block

Book it!
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 163/232 Today's Match: Dante > Riku
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/2/2008 3:13:48 PM | message detail
Leon and Dante are guys that seem to draw on the general appeal of their designs, and Pikachu just took advantage of their terrible pictures. Riku can't do the same, not only because they both look awesome today, but because he looks almost the exact same (only less awesome). If he had a more unique picture (say, like the one Sora had a few days ago), I'm sure he'd be doing better than this.
ffmasterjose | Posted 11/2/2008 3:16:30 PM | message detail
Riku's picture was meh, he looked naked to me the first couple of times I saw it >_>
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171/232 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Dante > Leon Kennedy | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/2/2008 4:55:25 PM | message detail
C'mon Sandbag, beat Sonic!
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/2/2008 5:22:38 PM | message detail
I like Sandbag and don't know Auron well or care a lot for Sub-Zero, but...I don't want to see it advance any further, and if it does then I certainly hope it's not at Sonic's expense. If Sandbag advances though, it's probably alongside Auron...

...don't die yet Sonic!
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/2/2008 5:27:31 PM | message detail
If a bag of sand defeats a noble niner, many lulz will be had
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TestIcicles | Posted 11/2/2008 5:29:53 PM | message detail
Why does anyone think Sandbag has any chance of beating Sonic?

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mmm test icicles
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2008 5:30:58 PM | message detail
Sandbag was too far behind Sonic last time. To win, it would need Auron + Sub-Zero to get over 50% of the vote (possible) and maintain a value static enough to make 2007 L-Block proud (not very possible). Considering that both L-Block and WCC have shed some valuable percentage between rounds, Sandbag's chances are almost nonexistent.
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__hiei__ | Posted 11/2/2008 5:32:22 PM | message detail
Sandbag stands no chance whatsoever

even if it is static,24%in this match won't be enough to advance.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2008 5:32:23 PM | message detail
Sandbag's gonna show you guys up.
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CB7 Score: 168/232
http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/2/2008 5:34:02 PM | message detail
static percentage my friends

if he gets his 27% while sffing Sonic, he'll get through at Sonics expense
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/2/2008 5:35:18 PM | message detail
I woulld've been convinced that Sandbad could potentially take Sonic down if it dismantled Magus (who's really making an impression in my mind as CT's answer to Donkey Kong). Instead, it edged him out by 240 votes. Not very convincing, IMO.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2008 5:35:42 PM | message detail
Auron's awesome and unique enough to nearly beat "format god" Ryu with Cloud in the match. He's what every Magus, Zero, Citan, and even Sephiroth wishes they could be - legitimately stronger than their games' respective protagonists. He's interesting without being annoying, cool without being one-dimensional, and pretty much the textbook definition of "consumate badass." Oh, and he's also great and fun to use in battle in both FFX and KH2.

I don't even like the guy more than Sonic - but he's deserving of a standout performance, and I hope he gets it tomorrow.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 11/2/2008 5:35:49 PM | message detail
Sandbag*
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 5:35:52 PM | message detail
Sandbag supporters basically have to hope it's got a static fanbase because Sonic/Auron/Sub-Zero is a beastly threepack. 27-30% or so MIGHT be enough to sneak in there over one of them, especially if it's close. I don't think it is static, and besides, it only got 24% last time, which won't be enough without Sub-Zero majorly overperforming (though with that awesome pic he got, who knows?)

Maybe Ammastasdfasaseru was the one doing all the damage to Leon and Dante somehow?

Uhhh...I'd sooner blame the awful pics, especially for Leon.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
__hiei__ | Posted 11/2/2008 5:36:08 PM | message detail
27% won't be enough either. This match is overall on a lower level than Crono's and Crono still managed 32%

Sonic won't end this below 30%
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 5:37:11 PM | message detail
A+ KH post, by the way.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
red sox 777 | Posted 11/2/2008 5:37:28 PM | message detail
I don't think Sandbag will advance- he only got 25% last round. It may not seem like it, but as far as static percentages go, there's a huge difference between 25% and 28%- Sonic and Auron will probably finish fairly close together, and way ahead of Sub-Zero, meaning 25% probably wouldn't be enough, even if Sandbag gets it.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 5:38:13 PM | message detail
This match is overall on a lower level than Crono's and Crono still managed 32%

Sonic = Crono essentially, Auron > Ryu (when not SFF'd, this is blatantly obvious, last year proved it), Sub-Zero > Ammy
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/2/2008 5:41:20 PM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | #164
I woulld've been convinced that Sandbad could potentially take Sonic down if it dismantled Magus (who's really making an impression in my mind as CT's answer to Donkey Kong). Instead, it edged him out by 240 votes. Not very convincing, IMO.



And Kirby massacered L Block round 1 last year.
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__hiei__ | Posted 11/2/2008 5:41:25 PM | message detail
L Block >>>>Sandbag

Auron >> Ryu

SUb Zero probably stronger than Ammy but not by all that much



ok,this match may be very "slightly" harder. still it'd be weird for Sonic to go below 30%
chaosarcher07 | Posted 11/2/2008 5:43:15 PM | message detail
I have a really bad feeling about Sonic in this match.

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http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=29
CBVII Current Score: 54/64
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/2/2008 5:43:54 PM | message detail
Anyways, round 1s for joke characters really don't mean much. WCC barely beat Tidus, then massacered him round 2.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 5:44:17 PM | message detail
Amaterasu wouldn't beat Sub-Zero or even come that close. 40% on Auron is basically 35-39% on the lower rung of the Noble Nine. Ammy ain't doin' that.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
__hiei__ | Posted 11/2/2008 5:45:14 PM | message detail
but the percentage does

WCC massacred tidus because he is static like L block

in this case Sandbag being static wouldn't help him. he needs to actually gain % to advance.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/2/2008 5:45:47 PM | message detail
Sub Zero is a midcarder, and closer to high mid then normal midcarder. This guy came within 7% of Sonic in round 1 last year pre Brawl boost for Sonic. He'll be taking up some percentage tomorrow.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/2/2008 5:47:19 PM | message detail
Amaterasu avoided the doubling from Crono twice, and was closer to Ryu than Ryu was to Crono. She's not far below Sub-Zero, especially if Auron was hurt by being the obvious favorite last round.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 5:48:10 PM | message detail
Subby taking up percentage is good for Sandbag, but he won't be taking up enough. It would actually be better for Sandbag for someone to blow the fourpack away if it's only going to be getting 25%, which isn't going to happen.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/2/2008 5:48:16 PM | message detail
Ammy is a low mid carder. Shes just got a loyal fanbase, but not enough to do any real damage.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 5:49:29 PM | message detail
Nah, Auron/Sub-Zero went almost exactly like it did in 2006, so I doubt he got hurt too much. Ammy's not getting 40% on Auron. Not saying she's bad. She's obviously proven to be a decent midcarder, but I think you're underestimating Subby.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/2/2008 5:51:48 PM | message detail
Sub Zero is always underestimated due to not being in many contests and not being from a game B8 is big on.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/2/2008 5:57:05 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero is projected to get 36.75% on Crono in 2006, through Auron.
Ammy got 33.71% on Crono last round.

The gap is smaller than the gap between L-Block and Sandbag, but Auron is clearly substantially stronger than Ryu, so Sonic's pack is stronger, but not all that much stronger. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sonic get 30%, although honestly I think he's not quite at Crono's level nowadays, at least in 4-ways.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 5:58:20 PM | message detail
Crono doesn't seem to be as strong as 2006 either. He was still stronger than Vincent that year, after all.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2008 5:59:41 PM | message detail
He's stronger than Vincent this year, too !!
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CB7 Score: 168/232
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__hiei__ | Posted 11/2/2008 6:00:21 PM | message detail
well,Crono seems stronger this year than last year

Also Vincent vs Crono could have been influenced by Link...after all Vincent comes from nintendo enemy number one in this site (ff7) so he likely didn't much support to Link.whereas Link and Crono probably overlap quite a bit.
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 6:04:40 PM | message detail
well,Crono seems stronger this year than last year

Unexpected overperformance =/= Stronger Crono

We fell into that trap last year with Cloud, heh.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
red sox 777 | Posted 11/2/2008 6:06:33 PM | message detail
I don't really want to argue about Link/Crono LFF again (we'll get our evidence as to its effect soon, if only L-Block would lose!), but it's my opinion Crono would have beaten Vincent 1v1 comfortably last year and he would also do so this year. And for that matter, he would have beaten Vincent with more than the 51% their matches against Sonic suggested in 2006, and Sonic would have gotten closer to Crono than projected through their matches with MM or even won in 2005.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
red sox 777 | Posted 11/2/2008 6:12:51 PM | message detail
The thing that makes me doubt Link/Crono LFF most is Crono's absolutely terrible performance in round 2 last year. Letting Zero win whole hours? That's just disgraceful, and I really have no explanation for it, but at least Crono looks to be stronger than that now, whether or not that match was indicative of Crono's 2007 strength. As for Cloud, his performance in round 2 was impressive, but while I initially thought he looked great in round 3, Link looked even better. I was not impressed by Cloud in round 4 (I said he needed 45% against Samus/MM/Ryu to challenge Link, and he didn't get close).
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 6:19:20 PM | message detail
Yeah, Cloud eventually showed us he wasn't ready to take on Link, but a couple of impressive performances sure made us feel like he could. I think Crono looked impressive partially because we overestimated Ryu a bit. He beat him worse than I thought he would. Besides, Kratos did about the same number on L-Block last year in round 2. I have a hard time taking L-Block (or WCC) matches very seriously, for obvious reasons.

And I personally think LFF gets thrown around way too much. Leon and Dante are already proving here that what happened last year was more of a fluke (or perhaps pic factor) than anything else. It doesn't happen as often as we think.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2008 6:23:17 PM | message detail
CT has seemed to have rebounded this year, at least a little - probably due to the Nintendo fans once brought here by the Wii (and completely ignorant of CT) not coming around any more. Its day vote has not been as catastrophic as it was last year or even in 2006. Toss a smidgen of CT: DS hype into the mix to fill out the rest. I like Crono > Vincent when they hit each other, though it won't matter unless

*sigh*

Pikachu can pull off another miracle. >_<
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 6:24:59 PM | message detail
Its day vote has not been as catastrophic as it was last year or even in 2006.

Well, except for Magus.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
red sox 777 | Posted 11/2/2008 6:29:15 PM | message detail
It's not that Link and Crono have a particularly close overlap, it's that Link had 45% of the votes in that match, and if his voters favored Crono even slightly, that would be enough to swing the result of Crono/Vincent. I can't say that they would with a high level of confidence, but you can't really be confident in either Crono or Vincent winning a 1v1 when they were that close, and only playing with 43% of the total votes.

I have no solid evidence for this, but I think Crono is perhaps our most stable character, and differences in performance arise primarily from differences in how favorable matchups are with different opponents. I would really like to see Crono face a strong SNES character 1v1- I think he would surprise us with how well he does.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2008 6:30:59 PM | message detail
"lol Magus"

I'm going to withhold judgment on that collapse until I see Sandbag tomorrow. The thing was making more percentage gains than Sonic during the ASV - we know it's very, err, Master Hand-ish. Magus' day vote might've been less disgraceful and more merely 'awful' in retrospect.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/2/2008 6:31:35 PM | message detail
It's very possible that Link voters could have favored Vincent slightly just as easily! There's really no reasoning for this other than Zelda and CT sharing a console, which is insignificant when it comes to FFVII.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
red sox 777 | Posted 11/2/2008 6:33:10 PM | message detail
For what it's worth, Axel's comeback on Frog was more impressive considering they were dealing with lower percentages and a lower amount of votes.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/2/2008 6:37:30 PM | message detail
Lower amount of votes=/=harder comeback. If two characters are receiving 60 votes an update each on average, a minor shift is going to do some serious damage.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
red sox 777 | Posted 11/2/2008 6:40:55 PM | message detail
I'd thought that Crono had a link with old Nintendo for a long time before that match- a greater overlap than between CT and FFVII, even, although both are quite small. I have no proof other than CT's history of excellent performances in 1v1s against old Nintendo (since CT wins the shared fanbase against virtually anything, more overlap is good for it in 1v1s), and speculation.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
red sox 777 | Posted 11/2/2008 6:42:44 PM | message detail
Um, no, a lower amount of votes does make it harder to pull comebacks of the same size vote-wise. That's why it's harder to pull off large comebacks in 4-ways than in 1v1s.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
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