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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 617

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/1/2008 9:56:22 AM | message detail
Master Fail is more like it. He might not even be Top 20.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2008 9:57:53 AM | message detail
But for those of us who were talking about Big Boss/Raiden LFF/SFF or whatever, I don't think it's that shocking Kirby is beating him anyway. I mean, you go from Big Boss/Jinjo/Kirby/Lucas to MC/Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby. Of course Kirby is going to look better. You are almost certainly adding characters to the mix that would share more fanbase with Big Boss while taking out characters that would share more fanbase with Kirby.

That's part of the reason I really felt good about him winning here. One on one, who knows?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2008 9:58:25 AM | message detail
Don't forget Sora cut 1500 votes on a tougher opponent, and MCs day vote is comparable to Sora

Kirby's is better than Squall's though.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2008 9:59:08 AM | message detail
Squalls day vote isn't bad post KH2 however
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/1/2008 10:00:21 AM | message detail
Dante may be, but I'm not so sure Leon is. I don't know what Leon gets directly on Dante these days though, so who knows?

If there's any upset I can see happening in the "WTFFFFF" vein of Jill > Ocelot, it's Leon beating Dante tomorrow. For some reason it just really scares me. But by any stroke of the imagination Leon should be FAR above Kirby. Look what he did to Riku, who got 45% on Yoshi. I'm not sure Kirby would get that much on the dino - and this was all pre-de-boost.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/1/2008 10:01:05 AM | message detail
Maybe not bad but was quite a bit worse than Yoshi and Fox, who are probably comparable to Kirby.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2008 10:02:50 AM | message detail
KHII didn't really do very much for Squall's day vote. The day vote was his undoing against Sonic both times.

He did win the day vote in the first round last year, but Aeris, Akuma, and Geno are all...not so great with it. Aeris and Tifa are unlike the boys in that they start strong and fade most of the day.

He lost the day vote to Tidus in 2006, and he really didn't do that much to Snake with it. Kirby's is definitely better.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2008 10:04:02 AM | message detail
Psh, gimme Kirby > Yoshi AND Bowser these days! Luigi's stronger than both of 'em!

Besides, Kirby got close to Bowser at his peak!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2008 10:07:37 AM | message detail
Oh man, I just realized that doing stats for this half of the division is going to be a major pain in the neck. How do I adjust Kirby and Big Boss anyway?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/1/2008 10:10:41 AM | message detail
I also sense something a bit off about Leon/Dante. Maybe Leon's picture hurt him really badly last year, but it just doesn't make sense to me that he'd be that far behind Dante. Dante is probably the one guy here who runs most exclusively off his design, and Leon seems to have at least made grounds in that department since his RE4 redesign. Couple in the fact that Leon's two games (RE4, especially) would smoke anything Dante has in his arsenal, and you get a case where the two guys really should be closer in strength than their 2007 match indicated.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/1/2008 10:12:48 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
red sox 777 | Posted 11/1/2008 10:13:17 AM | message detail
8 AM to 1 PM is the height of the day vote for Nintendo characters on weekends, and from then on, they gradually sink throughout the rest of the poll. But if Chief wants to come back, he has to start doing it now, as we've just passed 1 PM, and Kirby should be entering a weaker period.

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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2008 10:21:11 AM | message detail
So how much does MC end up beating Boss by? 4k? 5k?
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2008 10:23:35 AM | message detail
uh... boss just cut chief o.O
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2008 10:35:07 AM | message detail
At the rate he's going, 2500-3000.

Looking at the last round though, Big Boss actually did really well with the afternoon vote.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2008 10:36:07 AM | message detail

LeonhartFour (#115)
At the rate he's going, 2500-3000.

Looking at the last round though, Big Boss actually did really well with the afternoon vote.



so after gaining 1600 votes in 3 hours, you think he'll only gain 900-1400 for the rest of the day? o.O
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2008 10:36:38 AM | message detail
Considering Big Boss is starting to cut him now, yeah!

And like I said, Big Boss made a marked improvement during this time period last round.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/1/2008 10:37:34 AM | message detail
Uh... Chief is not beating Kirby, guys. If he can't stop leeched BB from stalling him in the day, he's finished.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2008 10:38:30 AM | message detail
I've given up on Chief beating Kirby. I think 4-5k beatdown on Boss is a good goal for him now though
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/1/2008 10:38:40 AM | message detail
Stupid Raiden. This could have been one of the greatest matches ever.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2008 10:38:52 AM | message detail

LeonhartFour (#117)
Considering Big Boss is starting to cut him now, yeah!

And like I said, Big Boss made a marked improvement during this time period last round.



Just as you said that, Chief gained 53 votes lol
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2008 10:40:29 AM | message detail
Don't worry. Big Boss just had a brief relapse!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2008 10:52:50 AM | message detail
So...Ocelot vs. Raiden: Who wins and by how much?

Liquid vs. Big Boss?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2008 10:54:16 AM | message detail
Ocelot wins 65-35

Big Boss wins 53-47 with Old Man Pic, and 62-38 with Naked Snake
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__Smurf__ | Posted 11/1/2008 10:58:50 AM | message detail
Yeah characters like Kirby aren't going to job a 2000+ lead to anyone.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2008 10:59:14 AM | message detail
Nice, three straight updates of the same lead.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2008 10:59:25 AM | message detail
3 straight ties for MC and Kirby

these guys love a good old fashioned stall
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/1/2008 10:59:44 AM | message detail
Man, I remember telling yo that if he really liked Big Boss AND Raiden, he should have supported Kain last round. See what voting for "real" characters did to your precious Big Boss?

But seriously, though, this is absolutely insane by Big Boss. I mean, yeah Naked Snake being at worst 48% on Kirby looked good, then started looking not as good due to a clear Nintendo drop, but uhh...even if we put this Kirby at 2k4 levels (haven't checked the bracket for that year, so I don't know if anywhere in there Kirby is really overrated), that puts Big Boss about 28% on BL, or around 2k4 Dante. Even better if we assume either

A) Kirby wouldn't have gotten every Jinjo/Lucas vote, or

B) Kirby 2k8 is stronger than Kirby 2k4, example being 2k6 Kirby putting Big Boss at 2k6 Zero, barring anything silly happening in Luigi/Kirby or Luigi/Zero. For kicks, if you think 2k5 Kirby was legit, Big Boss is within striking distance of Vincent!
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2008 11:04:30 AM | message detail
War, where will ya put Chief once he puts up 4-5k lead on Boss when this is all said and done?
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/1/2008 11:07:31 AM | message detail
I'm not basing it on this match, I'm basing it on last match, where BB put 48% on Kirby/Jinjo/Lucas. How Kirby does is how I'm basing Big Boss, as there's an MGS ninja in the room.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 11/1/2008 11:08:28 AM | message detail
Oh, misread, where would I put Chief...unless Chief beats Kirby by a significant margin, I'm putting him slightly below Big Boss.
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/1/2008 11:08:40 AM | message detail
Uh 6 updates without a Kirby gain. 2200 is too big a lead though.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2008 11:10:20 AM | message detail
Anyone got an update thingy showing how many votes Chiefs needs?

Oh, and lead over Boss is 2k now
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spiegel22 | Posted 11/1/2008 11:10:44 AM | message detail
Hahahhahahahaha

I was genuinely worried about my Kirby > MC pick. XD @ that.


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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 11/1/2008 11:12:08 AM | message detail
Man I looked my score and I am in the first 150.First time so well!!!
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red sox 777 | Posted 11/1/2008 11:15:26 AM | message detail
Chief's pace the last half hour: 5.67 votes/update
Chief's quota: 19.02 votes/update
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2008 11:16:25 AM | message detail
not looking good if he needs 19, with him basically stalling the last couple hours =\
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hailEC | Posted 11/1/2008 11:20:35 AM | message detail

If there's any upset I can see happening in the "WTFFFFF" vein of Jill > Ocelot, it's Leon beating Dante tomorrow. For some reason it just really scares me. But by any stroke of the imagination Leon should be FAR above Kirby. Look what he did to Riku, who got 45% on Yoshi. I'm not sure Kirby would get that much on the dino - and this was all pre-de-boost.


This... I'm expecting Dante & Leon to wreck house. I still don't buy significant overlap between the two. They certainly cater to similar fanbases, but last year was just funky. We've had plenty of one match anomalies that just flat out don't make sense in 4-ways, and I'm willing to bet that was one of them. Granted Pikachu's performance does make sense when you look at all the factors working against him in the match before Leon/Dante and then those working for him. Made way for a huge difference in then numbers. The only thing that makes me think Leon > Dante doesn't have too much of a chance is DMC4, but eh, could still happen.

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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2008 11:21:32 AM | message detail
Hogger > Dante due to their LFF

bank it
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2008 11:29:26 AM | message detail
I could see Hogger overperforming a bit due to how much he stands out in the pic. And when I say overperforming, I mean he may break double digits in percentage. Leon could beat Dante just based on REFAQs! I mean, if Jill can beat Ocelot after MGS4, why can't Leon beat Dante after DMC4?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2008 11:31:17 AM | message detail
I think double digits is a given just due to rallying. In all honestly though, I see him maybe getting 13-14%
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LeonhartFour | Posted 11/1/2008 11:32:04 AM | message detail
Who's going to care enough when he has no chance?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2008 11:32:17 AM | message detail
Static joke percentage, ya kno?
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2008 11:32:48 AM | message detail

LeonhartFour (#142)
Who's going to care enough when he has no chance?



on my rally topics, people never seem to check the results before voting
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linkhatesganon | Posted 11/1/2008 11:32:54 AM | message detail
That applies only for inanimate objects
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2008 11:33:54 AM | message detail

linkhatesganon (#145)
That applies only for inanimate objects



Sandbag isn't inanimate
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spiegel22 | Posted 11/1/2008 11:41:53 AM | message detail
Inanimate enough.


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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2008 11:42:51 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-47.jpg

Look deep into those eyes and dont tell me he lacks feelings
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hailEC | Posted 11/1/2008 11:44:17 AM | message detail
Leon beat Dante after DMC4

Because Ocelot/Jill were essentially equal. Leon has always been a few steps behind Dante.

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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 11/1/2008 11:49:55 AM | message detail
aww yeah chief is alive now

80 votes cut in the last 2 updates

DO THIS CHIEF
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