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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 616

HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/31/2008 9:41:56 PM | message detail

ZFS (#294)
Big Boss needs a good lead, but it doesn't need to be anywhere near 2,000 votes for him to win.



Yes he does. Just cuz Snake has an average day vote now due to Brawl, doesn't mean the other MGS characters have average day votes. Ocelot lost the day vote to a RE character.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2008 9:43:09 PM | message detail
Explain to me where those extra thousands of votes come from when Kain gets into the poll to give Big Boss such a massive lead, especially when you give him 7000 more votes than Raiden.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/31/2008 9:44:35 PM | message detail
Explain to me where those extra thousands of votes come from when Kain gets into the poll to give Big Boss such a massive lead, especially when you give him 7000 more votes than Raiden.

1. I did those off of the top of my head. They aren't perfect.
2. The first poll has MGS options, Nintendo options, and Halo options. The second has all that plus a Final Fantasy options. It's going to get more votes.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2008 9:45:14 PM | message detail
Just assume that the poll has the same number of votes both times and then redistribute them. Humor me.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/31/2008 9:45:48 PM | message detail
I don't think it really matters how big of a deal Boss gets if he can't even KEEP the lead.
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The_Ocelot2 | Posted 10/31/2008 9:46:07 PM | message detail
Chief strikes back
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/31/2008 9:46:09 PM | message detail
It's because assuming the other characters are not static, Raiden being in the poll can never help Big Boss. At best, Big Boss SFFs him 100-0, in which case the results would be the same as a 3-way between Boss/Kirby/MC. Now add Kain. If he's equally independent of all 3 of those characters, the relations between them shouldn't change.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
ZFS | Posted 10/31/2008 9:46:13 PM | message detail
Yes he does. Just cuz Snake has an average day vote now due to Brawl, doesn't mean the other MGS characters have average day votes. Ocelot lost the day vote to a RE character.

Big Boss barely budged last round against Kirby during the day - ditto for Snake and Liquid in their matches. Things could change this round, but if last round is anything to go by (for Boss and Chief), he only needs a solid lead, nothing as extreme as 2,000 votes. All depends on what happens during the night vote, and if Big Boss can build any sort of lead.

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Gaddswell | Posted 10/31/2008 9:46:25 PM | message detail
Chief in 2nd again. That's 4 lead changes now!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/31/2008 9:47:04 PM | message detail
Guys, come on, Big Boss would clearly be doing better if Kain was in Raiden's place. Yes, Boss is getting the better of a fanbase split now, but if Raiden were gone, there would be no fanbase split. He'd be taking 100% of the MGS fan vote. Yes, he'd lose some of his current support to voters who would like Kain more, but that would be nearly negligible compared to what he'd be gaining form eliminating this fanbase split.

Also

Big Boss (Naked Snake picture) vs. Vincent
Big Boss (Naked Snake picture) vs. Squall
Big Boss (Naked Snake picture) vs. Auron
Big Boss (Naked Snake picture) vs. Mega Man
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/31/2008 9:47:08 PM | message detail
Chief strikes back

Game Fuel hasn't completely worn off just yet.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/31/2008 9:47:08 PM | message detail
It's because assuming the other characters are not static, Raiden being in the poll can never help Big Boss. At best, Big Boss SFFs him 100-0, in which case the results would be the same as a 3-way between Boss/Kirby/MC. Now add Kain. If he's equally independent of all 3 of those characters, the relations between them shouldn't change.

This, basically. Raiden being there never helps Boss - he can only minimize the damage (which he is).

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2008 9:47:18 PM | message detail
Looks like this one might live up to the hype, depending on what Big Boss can do overnight!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/31/2008 9:47:28 PM | message detail
Trends could be a bit funky today though due to people out partying for Halloween, as we saw with 200 less votes then normal in the first update
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/31/2008 9:47:57 PM | message detail
You would say "They are SFFing eachother" since Cloud and Sephiroth are overlapping eachother, not Cloud overlapping Sephiroth.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/31/2008 9:48:24 PM | message detail
Big Boss (Naked Snake picture) vs. Vincent
Big Boss (Naked Snake picture) vs. Squall
Big Boss (Naked Snake picture) vs. Auron
Big Boss (Naked Snake picture) vs. Mega Man


Hmmm let's see

big boss big boss big boss and oh how about BIG BOSS
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/31/2008 9:48:48 PM | message detail
And for the record, I think Luigi hurting Mario less than Zelda is total crap (for somewhat different reasons, but whatever).

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2008 9:49:46 PM | message detail
It really depends. Mario could flatten Luigi, or Luigi could hold his own. Depending on what happens, Mario could still beat X.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/31/2008 9:49:55 PM | message detail
Best result here would be Kirby totally falling off the map overnight and Boss and MC both advancing, though. <3 MGS and Halo, and hate kirby
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/31/2008 9:50:18 PM | message detail
If Luigi holds up as good as Zelda did, he'll definitely be hurting Mario more. If he gets completely dominated, it would actually be an improvement for Mario.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/31/2008 9:50:26 PM | message detail
And for the record, I think Luigi hurting Mario less than Zelda is total crap

Agreed. I think X is the favorite there even without Bowser.
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ZFS | Posted 10/31/2008 9:50:26 PM | message detail
I've always thought Zelda would be more of a hindrance to Mario than Luigi. I'm expecting to see Mario rock Luigi in that match, not split the vote with him.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2008 9:50:54 PM | message detail
Whoa, Chief. Too close to Kirby there!

Come on, night vote!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/31/2008 9:50:55 PM | message detail
and chief awakens
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/31/2008 9:52:23 PM | message detail
Yes, but it really doesn't work well when using SFF as a verb, especially since we do not mean exactly the same thing. We mean that Cloud is taking advantage of a fanbase overlap with Sephiroth in that he gains ground relative to Sephiroth (Cloud is SFFing Sephiroth), but they are both losing ground relative to any other characters in the poll (moreso Seph than Cloud) due to that same overlap (Sephiroth is SFFing Cloud). LFF is a subset of SFF, but it can make things more precise, as long as we understand they arise from the same source.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/31/2008 9:52:42 PM | message detail
BTW guys, Chiefs 5th round match last year was done on a Saturday, and here we can see how he did with day vote on a Saturday:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/L-Block_vs_Snake_vs_Master_Chief_vs_Dante_2007
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/31/2008 9:53:15 PM | message detail
Well...

1. I seriously doubt Mario flattens Luigi. They have pretty distinct and unique fanbases (at least as much as two characters with their kind of relationship can have), and Luigi has shown himself to be great with SFF iin this format anyway.
2. The Zelda and Mario fanbases are much too diverse and large for Zelda to be affecting Mario much. They're both Nintendo characters, yeah, but they're different franchises with different fanbases nontheless. Mario would go up without Zelda in the poll, but he wouldn't shoot up. Luigi is direct overlap.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Majin Lou | Posted 10/31/2008 9:53:26 PM | message detail
This is one interesting match we got going on here.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/31/2008 9:53:30 PM | message detail
Whoa, Chief. Too close to Kirby there!

Come on, night vote!


Would Kirby really pull away during the night? I don't know much about his night vote (other than the fact that it can't be too great when looking at his day vote), but the idea of a Nintendo character winning the night against anyone not named Sora is just weird.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/31/2008 9:54:07 PM | message detail

PartOfYourWorld (#329)
Whoa, Chief. Too close to Kirby there!

Come on, night vote!


Would Kirby really pull away during the night? I don't know much about his night vote (other than the fact that it can't be too great when looking at his day vote), but the idea of a Nintendo character winning the night against anyone not named Sora is just weird.



He was clobbered in the night vote last round against Boss
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/31/2008 9:54:39 PM | message detail
MC has a decent night vote (compared to his Power Hour), from what I remember. Kirby certainly doesn't win it.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2008 9:54:49 PM | message detail
Would Kirby really pull away during the night?

Not for Kirby's sake (though MC is worse with the night vote than he is now)! For Big Boss's sake! The guy increased 5% from his Power Hour to his night vote average!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/31/2008 9:55:23 PM | message detail
Oh, he is? Nevermind. >_>

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/31/2008 9:55:44 PM | message detail
Heck yeah. Big Boss's sake is all that matters here.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/31/2008 9:56:09 PM | message detail
If Boss can't even win the power hour (Chiefs weakest time), It doesn't look good for him
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2008 9:56:22 PM | message detail
Well, according to the last round, MC was worse with the night vote. XBox characters are generally not so good at night anyway.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
red sox 777 | Posted 10/31/2008 9:56:23 PM | message detail
And for the record, I have no problem with people saying X is SFFing Y and Y is SFFing X in the same sentence; it's just a bit confusing. The real problem is that people think of SFF as a very specialized factor that applies only in a few cases of extreme fanbase overlap: no, there is a great deal of overlap in almost every match, with the joke characters being the only ones who are really independent.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
Gaddswell | Posted 10/31/2008 9:56:41 PM | message detail
At least Kirby`s making big gains after those stalls.

But yeah, he should do significantly worse in the night.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/31/2008 9:56:41 PM | message detail
There's your problem. You're using SFF only to describe situations where there's a clearly skewed result, such as Link/Ganon. SFF covers any match with overlap, Kirby/Bowser being the best close, 1v1 example I can think of.
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http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/31/2008 9:57:29 PM | message detail
BT, SFF can cover any overlap, but also using LFF makes things so much easier.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Yesmar | Posted 10/31/2008 9:58:20 PM | message detail
Master Chief has been decent with the Power Hour when compared with the night vote for the past two years now.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2008 9:58:22 PM | message detail
Okay, enough arguing about technical terms! Power Hour is almost over! The night vote is coming!

*salutes*
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
ZFS | Posted 10/31/2008 9:58:31 PM | message detail
1. I seriously doubt Mario flattens Luigi. They have pretty distinct and unique fanbases (at least as much as two characters with their kind of relationship can have), and Luigi has shown himself to be great with SFF iin this format anyway.

Luigi's done well against Ganon and Bowser - but neither have proven to be all that good with SFF. He's gotta go up against someone who's much stronger than either of those two and better with SFF, too. He may not get completely obliterated, but I can't see him holding up like some people believe. Not against Mario.

Mario would go up without Zelda in the poll, but he wouldn't shoot up.

Definitely disagree with this. If Zelda weren't in the poll, Mario would have done a good bit better than he did. She was taking up 20% of the vote there, and I think he would have taken a big chunk of that.

I think MMX/Luigi/Liquid is definitely a better draw for him than Zelda/MMX/Mudkip.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/31/2008 9:58:46 PM | message detail
I think it overcomplicates things since LFF is totally ambiguous, and a bit of a misnomer. You run into the same problem if say, Mario and Luigi split evenly, both getting the same percentage, but X and Liquid advance due to that. Neither is leeching the other, they are just SFFing eachother.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/31/2008 9:59:06 PM | message detail
SFF = Dog
LFF = German Shepard

understand?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 159/224 Today's Match: Master Chief > Kirby
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/31/2008 10:00:03 PM | message detail
Well, we'll see soon enough.


Or in a week.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/31/2008 10:00:19 PM | message detail
I'm really hoping that Dante and Leon make it through now... maybe they can LFF eachother enough next round for Kirby > Chief
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2008 10:01:21 PM | message detail
All right, Big Boss and Raiden end the Power Hour on a high note! Night vote time!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/31/2008 10:01:42 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
paraboxx | Posted 10/31/2008 10:01:46 PM | message detail
SFF = Dog
LFF = German Shepard

understand?


I was convinced I knew what these terms meant until I read this.
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