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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 616

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/31/2008 12:34:16 PM | message detail
Brawl de-boost-boost confirmed

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

~*aprosenf's poll script*~
http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/31/2008 12:34:51 PM | message detail
Fox vs. Sora R1: 43.46%
Fox vs. Sora R2: 39.87%
Yoshi vs. Squall R1: 42.14%
Yoshi vs. Squall R2: 42.42%

Not sure if anyone compared results yet.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/31/2008 12:35:02 PM | message detail
a/s/l?
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2008 12:42:24 PM | message detail
I compared the results. Notice that Squall got as much on Yoshi as sprite Snake got on him in 2006. Just imagine if Squall had faced him in round 3 that year instead of round 2! Upset city!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2008 12:56:26 PM | message detail
Whoo, slow topic is slow because slow match is slow!

Midna hasn't cut Mewtwo in nearly an hour. Come on!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
paulg235 | Posted 10/31/2008 12:59:59 PM | message detail
More like Melee deboost confirmed.
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The Gamer In Me
whatev | Posted 10/31/2008 1:16:29 PM | message detail
I think the Mewtwo/Ness/Pac-Man match may be one of the examples we have of overlap benefitting the stronger character relative to a neutral one. Mewtwo hurt Ness's Nintendo fanbase so much that the remainder actually favored Pac-Man over Mewtwo.

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The world is toroidal.
Exposed armpits are sexy.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/31/2008 1:27:21 PM | message detail
...And with this, Sora's probably the favorite next round. I don't have much confidence in Mewtwo left after this.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2008 1:30:28 PM | message detail
I wouldn't call Sora the favorite yet. After all, he's got to prove he can stand up to Cloud's SFF power. He's obviously the master of Square SFF, in an entirely different league from Squall.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
Same Orphanage | Posted 10/31/2008 1:31:08 PM | message detail
is that 3 midna cuts in a row i see time for a comeback
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CB7 Score: 156/216
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/31/2008 1:34:13 PM | message detail
I wouldn't call Sora the favorite yet. After all, he's got to prove he can stand up to Cloud's SFF power. He's obviously the master of Square SFF, in an entirely different league from Squall.

Oh. Right. But still...Nintendo flopping is the main issue of this contest.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/31/2008 1:35:01 PM | message detail
I'd much rather have Sora in my bracket right now, but we'll see what happens.
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CB7 Score: 156/216
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2008 1:36:10 PM | message detail
I'd much rather have Sora in my bracket right now, too, considering I have Yoshi advancing next round!

Note that this is the first time that Yoshi has lost before the third round since 2003, the only other time he ever did it. He's never advanced past the third round either.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/31/2008 1:37:06 PM | message detail
I blame bad taste all around. Yoshi should be in the Quarterfinals consistently!
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CB7 Score: 156/216
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2008 1:38:05 PM | message detail
Let's see...The only time Yoshi deserved to beat both of the opponents he faced was...2005? Hmmm...Even then, it's debatable!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2008 1:40:32 PM | message detail
600 vote barrier breached!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
NeoMagic249 | Posted 10/31/2008 1:42:08 PM | message detail
don't fail me mewtwo.
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{SMYL}{2xHeroes}
Brawl: 2406 4765 1380
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/31/2008 1:43:41 PM | message detail
Hmm, just realized Cloud's falling a bit with the ASV here. Weird.
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CB7 Score: 156/216
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/31/2008 1:45:08 PM | message detail
Yeah, Cloud might have a hard time beating Link's round 2 score of 53.34%. They're tied at that number right now, actually.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: 1st place, 38857 votes (30.47%)
Master Moltar | Posted 10/31/2008 2:01:14 PM | message detail
Nice to see Mewtwo pulling away with the ASV as planned, but still...too little too late death in round 3 you pokemon
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Moltar Status: augh
Cloud/Midna/Mewtwo/Pac-Man - Bracket: Cloud > Mewtwo - Vote: Mewtwo (153/216)
ZFS | Posted 10/31/2008 2:55:41 PM | message detail
Nice show by Midna. I didn't think she'd hold up as well during the ASV. Not bad - shame she couldn't pull a win here !

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http://i34.tinypic.com/eff04y.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/31/2008 3:04:58 PM | message detail
Midna has cut 5 times in a row now. OMG COMEBACK

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
charmander6000 | Posted 10/31/2008 3:06:26 PM | message detail
Now that I really look at it today's performance puts Mewtwo at around Yuna and slightly ahead of Pikachu.

I think we were overestimating the guy, he's not going to break the noble nine.

Also Pac-Man vs. Donkey Kong.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 151/216 Today's Match: Cloud > Mewtwo
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/31/2008 3:13:15 PM | message detail
Now that I really look at it today's performance puts Mewtwo at around Yuna

Ha...! Nope. I would bet my next paycheck on Yuna beating down Mewtwo.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/31/2008 3:13:51 PM | message detail
Yeah... Mewtwo isn't at Yuna strength. Hes a lower midcarder it seems, if we are to believe Midna and Pacmans strength
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
ZFS | Posted 10/31/2008 3:15:24 PM | message detail
midna comeback time

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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/31/2008 3:17:33 PM | message detail
anyone got a votes per update needed for midna chart?
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
charmander6000 | Posted 10/31/2008 3:18:43 PM | message detail
Mewtwo is getting about 24% on Cloud

Cloud (2007c) VS Yuna (2007c)

Cloud has a strength of 51.90.
Yuna has a strength of 25.23.

Cloud wins with 75.69% of the vote! (24.31%)
A win of 93,674 with 182,291 total votes cast.

How about Riku then?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 151/216 Today's Match: Cloud > Mewtwo
red sox 777 | Posted 10/31/2008 3:18:56 PM | message detail
7 cuts in a row is a trend!

Average gain by Midna over the past half hour: 9.33 votes/update
Average gain by Midna needed come back: 9.28 votes/update
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
charmander6000 | Posted 10/31/2008 3:20:13 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
charmander6000 | Posted 10/31/2008 3:21:47 PM | message detail
Opps I calculated using my time zone, red sox is correct.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 151/216 Today's Match: Cloud > Mewtwo
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/31/2008 3:24:02 PM | message detail
gain for mewtwo there.. lets just hope thats an anomoly!
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/31/2008 3:30:34 PM | message detail
I hope tomorrows match pic is up soon... to see if its Snake that Kirby needs to deal with, or an old man
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/31/2008 3:32:51 PM | message detail
And Pac-Man is getting 20.5% on Cloud right now. Everyone here who's taking Pac > Tidus raise your hands now.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
PegasusLover123 | Posted 10/31/2008 3:41:21 PM | message detail
What a dissapointing match for Mewtwo, i thought the ASV would let him really pull away from Midna, yet she's still on his tail.

Guess he lost strength from last year.
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BC: 0774-7368-9787 name: EDS "Casual player" so dont count me in for no item matches.
ZFS | Posted 10/31/2008 3:41:37 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-45.jpg

orange

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charmander6000 | Posted 10/31/2008 3:41:56 PM | message detail
...

*slowly raises hand*
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 151/216 Today's Match: Cloud > Mewtwo
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/31/2008 3:42:04 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-46.jpg
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
FFDragon | Posted 10/31/2008 3:42:44 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-45.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-46.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-47.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-48.jpg
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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE]
http://img.imgcake.com//wesker.gif
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/31/2008 3:42:45 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-47.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-48.jpg

rest of round 2 is up
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
FFDragon | Posted 10/31/2008 3:43:04 PM | message detail
Riku looks like a chick.
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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE]
http://img.imgcake.com//wesker.gif
voltch | Posted 10/31/2008 3:43:43 PM | message detail
BB is sooooo screwed!
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/31/2008 3:44:17 PM | message detail
I'm not feeling good for Chief with that pic, either.
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
PegasusLover123 | Posted 10/31/2008 3:44:32 PM | message detail
That's a bad pic for Big Boss? I don't think it's as bad as Raiden's whom i can hardly recognize at all....
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BC: 0774-7368-9787 name: EDS "Casual player" so dont count me in for no item matches.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/31/2008 3:45:30 PM | message detail

PegasusLover123 (#044)
That's a bad pic for Big Boss? I don't think it's as bad as Raiden's whom i can hardly recognize at all....



He needed naked snake
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/aero/Albion+Hero.png
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/31/2008 3:45:52 PM | message detail
Raiden time.
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CB7 Score: 156/216
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg
ZFS | Posted 10/31/2008 3:46:14 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-48.jpg

Great pic for Jill there - best one of the bunch.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/31/2008 3:46:14 PM | message detail
1. darn you old BB oh well COME ON MGS4 BOOST and white vs orange team
2. Riku looks like a chick I want to bang. Hard.
3. Hmm. Sub-Zero looks like he's trying to steal some of Auron's badass appeal. Hmm.
4. Let's do this Kratos
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/31/2008 3:46:17 PM | message detail
Boss is sadly outclassed. Everyone else looks way too good (especially Raiden).

Riku is dead.

Excellent pics for the Sonic/Auron match. Can't do much with Sandbag, obviously, but everyone else looks awesome.

Bacon must hate FFVII. Tifa looks ok but could have gotten much better pics, Seph looks like a dope, Kratos looks insanely badass, and Jill looks beautiful. Go Jillybean!
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
FFDragon | Posted 10/31/2008 3:47:01 PM | message detail
Jill with the UC art, which is totally the reason for her boost. Jill > Sephiroth confirmed.
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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE]
http://img.imgcake.com//wesker.gif
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