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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 613

ShadowCrossZero | Posted 10/29/2008 3:45:27 PM | message detail
Vote for Zero!
HaRRicH | Posted 10/29/2008 3:45:55 PM | message detail
In 2004, I always think of it as the year of same-company matches.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2008 3:46:45 PM | message detail
This match hasn't so much as 'gotten interesting' as 'Zero is now a lock to win'. It was more interesting when Vivi was stalling.

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Bracket:
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/29/2008 3:47:11 PM | message detail
I find it amusing that despite a "limit", 2004 had more SFF density than this bracket.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/29/2008 3:47:31 PM | message detail
Yeah, but 2004 had epic Frog. And it's a shame that Jill Valeninte VS Ryu Hayabusa only was worth one point.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/29/2008 3:47:58 PM | message detail
There's nothing wrong with keeping the same format, as long as it is the traditional 2002-4 format of 1v1 matches and no characters being removed from the main bracket. As for company caps, they are a bad idea....I wouldn't be opposed to seeing 10 FFVII characters in a 64 character bracket if they are strong enough to deserve it.
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Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
creativename | Posted 10/29/2008 3:48:41 PM | message detail
It's weird...normally I'd be rooting like crazy for Vivi to win.

But since I think if Vivi advances, the damn cube actually beating Mega Man becomes more likely, I'm conflicted now.

Cause I'd be really pissed if WCC was able to beat out Mega Man.

I don't think it will happen either way though, especially with the sprite round. Hard to see classic Mega Man sprite losing to WCC. Even though sprite Snake likely won't be as bad as Solid ****, with user-made pics - there's probably some not-entirely-horrible sprite of Snake out there somewhere that some user can find. So Snake will still eat up lots of percentage, which is bad for Mega. But again, have trouble seeing classic Mega Man sprite lose to a Cube.
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greatone10 | Posted 10/29/2008 3:49:01 PM | message detail
Damn, after hanging around the 200s for half of forever, Zero is about to break the 100 vote barrier.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2008 3:49:20 PM | message detail
creative, I'm sorry, but you have no idea of how LFF actually works if you think Zero advancing helps Mega Man.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/29/2008 3:50:56 PM | message detail
Zero's picture in the next round perhaps the best reason why he deserves to win this match.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/29/2008 3:51:23 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be opposed to seeing 10 FFVII characters in a 64 character bracket if they are strong enough to deserve it.

I would, because Its essentially a Square/Nintendo contest then. At least with series caps we get more then just those 2 companies.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/29/2008 3:52:10 PM | message detail

But since I think if Vivi advances, the damn cube actually beating Mega Man becomes more likely, I'm conflicted now.


Uhh... what? Zero is the one who'd hurt Mega Man more, not Vivi. Zero advancing would essentially make Snake > WCC a lock, but Mega Man has a shot if Vivi is there.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/29/2008 3:52:43 PM | message detail
No, it's possible actually. Assume WCC is static. Then the question is: does Megaman get a higher percentage of Snake/MM/Zero votes or Snake/MM/Vivi votes? If MM can SFF Zero hard, then it's clear that Zero would end up with a lower percentage than Vivi. Snake + MM must therefore end up with a higher percentage. MM/Zero LFF will ensure that Snake benefits more, but if MM SFFs Zero really hard, Snake and MM could both benefit. If WCC were not a static character, then it would also benefit from MM/Zero LFF, but it is static, so it's possible that Zero would be better for MM than Vivi.
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Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/29/2008 3:53:19 PM | message detail
I would, because Its essentially a Square/Nintendo contest then. At least with series caps we get more then just those 2 companies.

This.

Uhh... what? Zero is the one who'd hurt Mega Man more, not Vivi. Zero advancing would essentially make Snake > WCC a lock, but Mega Man has a shot if Vivi is there.

And this.
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creativename | Posted 10/29/2008 3:53:31 PM | message detail
There's nothing wrong with keeping the same format, as long as it is the traditional 2002-4 format of 1v1 matches and no characters being removed from the main bracket. As for company caps, they are a bad idea....I wouldn't be opposed to seeing 10 FFVII characters in a 64 character bracket if they are strong enough to deserve it.

Agree 100%.

Ceej made lots of mistakes with the brackets, no question. Too many SFF matches, and too many limits and caps. But we don't need to see 4-ways ever again. And some more cheating oversight would be good too.

I am a fan of user-made pics however. Sign of laziness and lack of interest maybe, but that's the way it should have always been. Only problem is that Bacon's selections seem odd sometimes. But I guess one person's selections will never be perfect.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/29/2008 3:54:29 PM | message detail
I know it's old but Zero did better than Snake on Mega Man in 2004. I can't see Mega Man SFF Zero hard.
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transience | Posted 10/29/2008 3:57:37 PM | message detail
hrm. I think Mega Man has a better chance of advancing next round with Zero there than with Vivi. it's weird logic, but absolutely solid thinking seeing as Mega Man's gonna need 28%-ish and MM will beat up Zero better than he will Vivi. Vivi can probably pull a nice percentage from MM and Snake - Zero will get the Sephiroth treatment and get largely ignored.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/29/2008 3:57:43 PM | message detail
aww yea vivi gain

now kids, this is exciting over just big massive vote swings.
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transience | Posted 10/29/2008 3:58:34 PM | message detail
also, Zero is totally unique in that he's got a strong first four hours but also a strong last four. Vivi's toast here.
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/29/2008 3:58:38 PM | message detail

transience (#367)
hrm. I think Mega Man has a better chance of advancing next round with Zero there than with Vivi. it's weird logic, but absolutely solid thinking seeing as Mega Man's gonna need 28%-ish and MM will beat up Zero better than he will Vivi. Vivi can probably pull a nice percentage from MM and Snake - Zero will get the Sephiroth treatment and get largely ignored.



With Zero there, it'll lower Mega Mans overall percentage cuz Zero isn't someone he'd just be able to SFF to oblivion easily. Theres alot of people who prefer X games who'd go with Zero.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2008 3:59:17 PM | message detail
Sephiroth did as well on Cloud as Link once upon a time. Things change, although I'm not sold on Zero getting crushed yet.
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creativename | Posted 10/29/2008 3:59:56 PM | message detail
Uhh... what? Zero is the one who'd hurt Mega Man more, not Vivi. Zero advancing would essentially make Snake > WCC a lock, but Mega Man has a shot if Vivi is there.

I don't think so. I think Zero would be SFFed a lot, and I do not think Mega Man would be LFFed very much.

We've already seen this, albeit on a smaller scale, in the Samus/Ganon/Frog match. Ganon was SFFed slightly, but didn't appear to LFF Samus.

And again, SFF seems to be worse in this format, Cloud/Sephiroth being the most obvious example.

And just look at what Snake is doing to Ryu here. We don't even know what that's exactly about, but it's clear that SFF of some sort can make a character go real low in this format.

Vivi I don't think could go all that low - he stands out a lot in that match. And if he gets a classic NES black mage sprite? Whoo boy. (though that's not actually Vivi, so I don't know if that could happen; but he should do decent in any case)

Zero, on the other hand, could potentially get a very low percentage in the match. Which would work against the relatively static Cube's chances.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/29/2008 4:01:01 PM | message detail
Again, Mega Man let Zero get closer to him than he let Snake in 2004.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/29/2008 4:01:07 PM | message detail
Funny how Hayabusa won over Zero with 1370 votes, but now he might end up to lose with more than 10000 votes.

Snake really does hurt other mainstream badasses. I wonder how Dante would do against Snake..
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transience | Posted 10/29/2008 4:01:11 PM | message detail
Sephiroth did as well on Cloud as Link once upon a time. Things change, although I'm not sold on Zero getting crushed yet.

I'm thinkin' this is more of a one-on-one vs. fourway thing. Sephiroth looked consistently bad in '06 and worse in '07 with Cloud in the polls.
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
red sox 777 | Posted 10/29/2008 4:01:41 PM | message detail
Zero did hold up to MM very well in 2004, but the thing is, Sephiroth also held up extremely well to Cloud before (48%). Zero would be the weakest non-joke character in the poll, have no chance of advancing, and have a stronger character from the same series in the poll who desperately needs votes to advance.... I can see him flopping in that poll, and putting up 44% on Megaman again in a 1v1 the next day.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/29/2008 4:01:48 PM | message detail
http://mitsumahal.com/eeb/images/avatars/vivi.gif

Is this official? Cuz I've seen that alot of places
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2008 4:02:34 PM | message detail
Fanbases do not work that way.

Snake/MM/Vivi/WCC.

Fans of MM vote for MM.

Snake/MM/Zero/WCC.

Fans of MM vote for MM, except for fans of Zero and MM who vote for Zero. MM gains nothing extra as fans of Zero were already likely fans of MM and would have voted for him to begin with.

If MM destroys Zero, he merely gets hurt less than if Zero puts up a good fight. He doesn't do worse if Vivi tis there.

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Bracket:
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SephirothG | Posted 10/29/2008 4:02:55 PM | message detail
ok what are Zero's typical trends stats people? I need him to beat Vivi!
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creativename | Posted 10/29/2008 4:03:41 PM | message detail
tranny
Vivi can probably pull a nice percentage from MM and Snake - Zero will get the Sephiroth treatment and get largely ignored.

Exactly.


Karma Hunter
Sephiroth did as well on Cloud as Link once upon a time. Things change, although I'm not sold on Zero getting crushed yet.

Yes - I'm not entirely sold on it myself, either. Zero could hold up nicely. I just think it's more probably that Vivi hurts Mega Man more than Zero does.

It's possible that I'm wrong and Zero does indeed hurt Mega Man more, but I think it's very likely that Zero advancing is better for Mega Man.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/29/2008 4:03:58 PM | message detail
oh man vivi is so done
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Guess how many teens | Posted 10/29/2008 4:04:28 PM | message detail
and zero wins with 1000 vote barrier.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/29/2008 4:04:37 PM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Mega_Man_vs_Zero_2004

Doesn't look like a SFF beatdown to me
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__Smurf__ | Posted 10/29/2008 4:05:12 PM | message detail
Don't compare it to Samus / Ganondorf. The Nintendo fanbase is huge, MM fanbase a lot smaller, there's just enough of them to support two in a situation like this. If Zero progresses not only will Cube win he'll win well.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2008 4:05:40 PM | message detail
The problem is you people are thinking of this in terms of % and not of votes. MM could very well get a higher % with Zero there and still get less vote due to it being an LFF match.

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Bracket:
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ffmasterjose | Posted 10/29/2008 4:06:23 PM | message detail
Uh oh, Zero's gonna advance to the next round if this keeps up.

Solid Snake > WCC 4real

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red sox 777 | Posted 10/29/2008 4:06:35 PM | message detail
Fans of MM vote for MM, except for fans of Zero and MM who vote for Zero. MM gains nothing extra as fans of Zero were already likely fans of MM and would have voted for him to begin with.

If MM destroys Zero, he merely gets hurt less than if Zero puts up a good fight. He doesn't do worse if Vivi tis there.


This would be true if WCC weren't a joke character. Zero will never hurt Megaman less than a normal character, yes- but for WCC, it doesn't matter very much what the total strength of its opponents is. Snake/MM/Vivi is obviously stronger than Snake/MM/Zero- but WCC will get around the same percentage on both. Megaman does not have to worry about maximizing his percentage in relation to WCC because WCC is static- he just needs to maximize his absolute percentage.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/29/2008 4:07:00 PM | message detail
I don't even know why people think theres a chance Mega Man will sff Zero to hell when its been proven that Zero holds up VERY well to him. Hell, Zero actually performed BETTER on Megaman in 2004 then his strength should, so there is rSFF going on
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2008 4:08:47 PM | message detail
Since when are joke characters perfectly static? The first match would have fans of MGS, Mega Man, and Final Fantasy with options to choose from. The second would have fans of MGS and Mega Man with options to choose from. Which one is going to get more apathetic Cube votes?

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Bracket:
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creativename | Posted 10/29/2008 4:09:49 PM | message detail
I can see him flopping in that poll, and putting up 44% on Megaman again in a 1v1 the next day.

As usual, red sox 777 understands contest dynamics well. 4-ways work differently. (too bad he's a Sox fan! booo red sox, go Yankees)

And again, as I've said many times before, SFF and LFF are not entirely the same thing. You can have standard SFF (one character overperforms against another, taking their votes) without any LFF going on.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/29/2008 4:09:54 PM | message detail
Oh, joke characters are not perfectly static, but the less static Cube is, the higher Megaman's chances of winning are, considering he beat him by about 11000 votes yesterday.
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SephirothG | Posted 10/29/2008 4:10:25 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2008 7:08:47 PM | message detail
Since when are joke characters perfectly static? The first match would have fans of MGS, Mega Man, and Final Fantasy with options to choose from. The second would have fans of MGS and Mega Man with options to choose from. Which one is going to get more apathetic Cube votes?


This.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/29/2008 4:11:28 PM | message detail
Well at this current pace, we'll see how Zero effects him next round. I think you're crazy now for saying that a LFF situation helps Mega Man (Since their last 1v1 match, MM only got 56% on Zero), but hey, weirder thigns have happened.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2008 4:11:50 PM | message detail
You can have standard SFF (one character overperforms against another, taking their votes) without any LFF going on.

So at the very best Zero does nothing to MM.

You argument relies on MM fans either

A. Materializing out of thin air
B. Voting for MM to get him over the Cube

And you don't seem to be arguing for B.

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red sox 777 | Posted 10/29/2008 4:13:04 PM | message detail
No, it relies on Vivi overlapping with Megaman more than Cube.
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medicority | Posted 10/29/2008 4:14:01 PM | message detail
I put down snake > zero. maybe, just maybe..
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/29/2008 4:15:40 PM | message detail
Mega Man - 56.01%
Zero - 43.99%

And thus, we had the match that defined the 20XX division. Zero and Mega Man, two characters from various Mega Man games, got it on in their cute little rigged match to see who the ultimate robot was. The problem, of course, is that we all knew that Mega Man would win the match. No analysis necessary in that regard.

The issue here comes from Mega Man completely dropping the ball during the match. In most SFF matches, the winner usually winds up killing the opposition. Not so in this case. Not only did Mega Man fail to kill Zero, but Zero had more update victories against Mega Man than Mario had against Crono. To put it simply, this match played out as if there was no SFF at all, which seemed virtually impossible before it began. But as the match progressed and the pattern of Zero being able to avoid SFF altogether became clear, two things could be derived from the results. One, there was no way in hell that Mega Man was going to come close to touching Link. Two, something has to exist in order to give Zero such power against one of his own.

Personally, I think that Mega Man fans are smarter than the average voter. Unlike the nonsense that CJayC spews forth about the various forms of Mega Man being the same character, veterans of the series know better. Mega Man and Mega Man X are two completely different characters from two completely different series, and I think that this match helps show that even though the two series are entitled Mega Man, they have two somewhat distinct fanbases between them. In essence, I feel that this match was actually Mega Man vs Mega Man X. It isn't a stretch to consider. Furthermore, Zero stars in his own little series for the Game Boy entitled Mega Man Zero. I've never played it, but from what I hear, it's both fun and difficult. It may not be much, but it could be enough to allow Zero to avoid SFF against someone not even in the Mega Man X series. X might be in the series, but not Mega Man himself.

And if none of that sounds valid, then this match would be the one and only example we have ever had of Reverse SFF. Maybe it is possible, though I doubt that it will ever allow underdogs in such matches to actually win them. Despite Zero doing far better than expected, he still lost by 10000 votes.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/29/2008 4:17:03 PM | message detail
So is Zero a pretty much confirmed winner?
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creativename | Posted 10/29/2008 4:17:11 PM | message detail
Well at this current pace, we'll see how Zero effects him next round. I think you're crazy now for saying that a LFF situation helps Mega Man (Since their last 1v1 match, MM only got 56% on Zero), but hey, weirder thigns have happened.

As just about everyone around here knows, I'm certainly not crazy :) I'm not always right, but I certainly never say crazy stuff unless I give a fanboy bias disclaimer first :o)

And this really wouldn't be that weird. Zero doing poorly => Mega Man's chances against a relatively static Cube go up. Pretty simple.

Zero could hold up very well. I just don't think that's probable.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 10/29/2008 4:18:50 PM | message detail
Zero ending contests with a whimper seems to be his thing in recent years so I'm gonna say he'll get dragged into single digits next round.
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