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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 613

_Harmonica_ | Posted 10/29/2008 9:59:44 AM | message detail
Cube will look exactly the same.
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/29/2008 10:02:44 AM | message detail
True enough I didn't factor that in. That gives Snake less dominance, maybe hurt Vivi a little and god knows what with the cube. It could be the ticket MM needs to get through, it's a let off if he does.
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you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
red sox 777 | Posted 10/29/2008 10:04:06 AM | message detail
We'll see about Zero's ASV- he's not Megaman- all of his past matches have shown him to be quite good at the ASV. With regards to the Link match last year, while it's true that easier for percentage to fluctuate at low percentages, keep in mind improving the same amount at 12% as at 45% is nearly 4 times as big a move proportionally. Zero also won whole hours against Crono in round 2 while being 5000+ votes down. Sure, Crono has an awful ASV, but winning hours while being down 5000 votes, especially in a 4-way, is never easy. And since people insist on comparing Zero's ASV to Megaman's, look at this:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=1768&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

Zero is below 41% before the ASV, yet manages to win many updates during it.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/29/2008 10:06:16 AM | message detail
Those last two rounds for L-Block were obvious rallying, but the first 4 were alarmingly consistent and thats what's relevant for Cube's effort. Even look at Block's votals this year. Within 5k of each other while adding Crono to the mix. I never said he was perfectly static but in relative terms to other characters the joke items have a very consistent level that doesn't alter much from other character's strengths.
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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/29/2008 10:09:37 AM | message detail
I still say even at best Zero's average with the ASV. And given that so is Vivi it's not going to swing wildly enough in his direction either way for it to make a difference.
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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
DpObliVion | Posted 10/29/2008 10:14:01 AM | message detail
Whoo Vivi!

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 10/29/2008 10:24:05 AM | message detail
Zero still has a chance to comeback right?
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AKA Super Luigi.
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/29/2008 10:24:59 AM | message detail
I thoroughly believe not. >_>
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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/29/2008 10:28:09 AM | message detail
Yes, he does. The two have gone even the last 35 minutes, which leads me to believe that Vivi won't do much with the remaining 90 before the ASV. Whomever the ASV favors more (even if it's a tiny shift) will probably win.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2008 10:30:50 AM | message detail
The ASV doesn't truly start until 4 EST or so.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
DpObliVion | Posted 10/29/2008 10:34:38 AM | message detail
Well, you guys thought Vivi was dead in the early hours of this poll, so how do you think this ends up now?

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/29/2008 10:35:47 AM | message detail
It ends up with the lot of us not caring nearly as much as we would if this was a contested 1v1 match. =/
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2008 10:36:45 AM | message detail
Hey, I care. This would put Vivi at an even contest record instead of down one loss (darn you Zelda).

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/29/2008 10:38:54 AM | message detail

PartOfYourWorld (#162)
It ends up with the lot of us not caring nearly as much as we would if this was a contested 1v1 match. =/



Why is this?
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edwardsdv | Posted 10/29/2008 10:40:37 AM | message detail
Still with the ASV the way it is itll b snake and Ryu dominance, not enough to put ryu into the mach but enough to effectively stall vivi v. Zero IMHO until ater the ASV.

The SNV is where this one will be decided.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/29/2008 10:43:37 AM | message detail
this matchup will be taking place in the sprite round, a round where as we saw last year, Mega Man is able to perform nearly at the Samus' level.

N, no, don't fall into the BT-trap! Don't forget Yoshi was in the poll too, and when you compare that to Mega/Samus in R4 and any other matches Mega's used his sprite, you don't have to guess twice on whether it was Mega's sprite or Yoshi's presence that made Samus look so bad.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
hailEC | Posted 10/29/2008 10:44:28 AM | message detail
Yeah, there's no way MM's sprite makes him as strong as Samus.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/29/2008 10:47:56 AM | message detail

hailEC (#167)
Yeah, there's no way MM's sprite makes him as strong as Samus.



you're right. He's NEARLY as strong, not as strong.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 10/29/2008 10:49:11 AM | message detail
Makes you wonder how bad he would have lost to Link otherwise if he got doubled in sprite form.
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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
HaRRicH | Posted 10/29/2008 10:52:13 AM | message detail
...didn't either of you listen to what I just said? The sprite shouldn't matter to Mega Man.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/29/2008 10:54:03 AM | message detail

HaRRicH (#170)
...didn't either of you listen to what I just said? The sprite shouldn't matter to Mega Man.



Because one person going against past facts means we should all be converted? Its proven mega man does best in the sprite round
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PokemonPatriarch | Posted 10/29/2008 10:56:59 AM | message detail
Yeah, you guys got it right: wherever the ASV goes gets this between Vivi and Zero.

Snake has dominated. Expect his percentage to go up, as well as his lead.

Ryu has sucked all day. Expect him to not suck "as" much, but by no means make cuts in the votals.

Vivi looks like Black Mage. That has to help him with ASV.

Zero is cool-lookin'.


So...

ASV goes to Snake and Vivi, regrettably.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/29/2008 10:58:28 AM | message detail
Ryu may make a couple cuts on Zero and Vivi during ASV just due to how dominant he was in asv yesterday.. not enough to make a difference but enough to get over 14% and maybe almost to 15%
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/29/2008 10:58:52 AM | message detail
2002: Mega Man nearly beat Sephiroth in the sprite round (the best argument you can make, but it's 2002)
2003: Mega Man doubled Vercetti (who didn't look any better or worse in 2004)
2004: Mega Man let Zero get closer to him than Solid Snake
2005: Mega Man barely edged out Sonic (who was the bottom NN'er at the time)
2006: Mega Man let Sora get ~46%
2007: Mega Man couldn't beat Samus despite Yoshi in the poll

Shut up about past facts.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/29/2008 11:00:00 AM | message detail
mm hmm

Snake > Mega Man next round confirmed if Vivi advances
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DpObliVion | Posted 10/29/2008 11:05:33 AM | message detail
Hopefully.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008
HaRRicH | Posted 10/29/2008 11:12:06 AM | message detail
So...this is going to sound bizarre, but I'll ask:


1) What would it mean for Solid Snake to be able to beat Mega Man and Zero combined next round?

2) Is there ANY chance of that happening, assuming Zero beats Vivi?
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/29/2008 11:17:53 AM | message detail
If Zero gets in, I think its almost a certainty.
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Chaotic Mind | Posted 10/29/2008 11:25:08 AM | message detail
I think Harrich means what if Snake's total votes beats Megaman's and Zero's combined total?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/29/2008 11:28:28 AM | message detail
It would mean the Cube is a beast.

Why is this?

Because fourways are difficult to predict, but boring in execution. Of course, I blame a lot of this on the fact that running a gimmick twice makes it boring the second time, and bad bracket placement has a lot to do with it, too.

Either way, this could be an exciting match! Snake getting the magic number, Vivi advancing, BT closing his account! Could it get any better?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/29/2008 11:29:18 AM | message detail
That was Zero's best cut in ages.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
hochimnih157 | Posted 10/29/2008 11:29:24 AM | message detail
Zero is a dud. That is why I picked Vivi > Zero this match. Let us see if it gets me back on the leaderboard. I'm far from finished.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/29/2008 11:33:14 AM | message detail
Zeros comeback h as started
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/29/2008 11:33:35 AM | message detail
Zero with another cut, although it's much smaller this time.

Zero, for the love of god, don't win today please.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
Chaotic Mind | Posted 10/29/2008 11:34:51 AM | message detail
Yeah Zero! Pretty much stalled Vivi for 3 updates in a row, then made ~30 vote cut. Looks like he might be startin his comeback!

*starts blasting this: http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=7G8_ATFaKME*
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Proud member of the A1 Steak Sauce Guild
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/29/2008 11:36:58 AM | message detail

MyWorldIsCrono (#173)
Ryu may make a couple cuts on Zero and Vivi during ASV just due to how dominant he was in asv yesterday..



Yesterday? What?
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/29/2008 11:37:15 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/29/2008 11:38:52 AM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Cube | Tidus | Mega Man | Nero
EBV | 28.98% | 21.71% | 37.88% | 11.43% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 30.46% | 21.44% | 38.03% | 10.06% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 29.02% | 23.28% | 36.40% | 11.31% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 28.74% | 24.28% | 34.92% | 12.06% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 26.84% | 23.40% | 37.58% | 12.18% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 29.17% | 22.00% | 35.85% | 12.97% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 28.00% | 22.43% | 37.17% | 12.41% | (22:00-24:00)

Great Power Hour and night vote for Mega Man and Cube. Mega Man dropped off during the morning, rose up big during the DSV, and dropped right back down with the ASV. Cube kept dropping until we hit the ASV, where it suddenly became a beast. Tidus does his best work in the morning, for some reason. Nero had a horrible Power Hour, and a relatively good ASV.

Yesterday's stats:

Mega Man – 50.00%
Weighted Companion Cube – 43.95%
Tidus – 38.40%
Nero – 24.92%

Division 5, Top Half

Mega Man – 50.00%
Weighted Companion Cube – 43.95%
Tidus – 38.40%
Donkey Kong – 30.75%
Nero – 24.92%
Miles “Tails” Prower – 24.38%
Banjo – 16.07%
Captain Olimar – 14.31%

There's Mega Man...then there's the Cube...then there's Tidus...then there's DK...then there's Nero and Tails...then there's Banjo and Olimar. Pretty big gaps in the strengths here. Interesting to see that Nero still scores above Tails. Not sure if that's good for Nero or just pathetic for Tails.

So...Should I give Hayabusa his round 1 value or his current value for this match?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
DpObliVion | Posted 10/29/2008 11:39:14 AM | message detail
Damn it, I'm regretting throwing my vote away on Ryu now. Come on, Vivi! Not just for my bracket this round, but for the sake of my bracket and the contest next round, too!

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/29/2008 11:40:46 AM | message detail
Every so often, Vivi manages to make a big enough cut to offset some of Zero's work. Vivi's peak lead was only 412, achieved 40 minutes ago. Zero's only cut 23 votes there. Looks like they might just go back and forth for a while.

Zero might pull a ReSTALLver Lossalot here!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/29/2008 11:41:33 AM | message detail
And another gain by Vivi to almost get back to 400!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/29/2008 11:41:46 AM | message detail

The n00b Avenger (#186)

MyWorldIsCrono (#173)
Ryu may make a couple cuts on Zero and Vivi during ASV just due to how dominant he was in asv yesterday..



Yesterday? What?



Oops, I meant last round
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/29/2008 11:45:31 AM | message detail
Actually Hayabusa was more dominate during this time(before school vote) than the after school vote last round. Zero actually improved on him during the ASV(obviously not enough to do anything, he went from losing updates by 3% to losing updates by 2%)
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/29/2008 11:49:17 AM | message detail
And Vivi's back to his peak lead of 412! Looks like Snake's going to hold on to 43% here, too!

For the record, the ASV was Vivi's worst time last round and Snake's best along with the second night vote (even better than his first night vote!). Zero did about the same with the before school, during school, and after school vote. Hayabusa was about 1.5% better with the DSV than the ASV.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2008 11:54:33 AM | message detail
Vivi going even with Zero for the rest of the match CONFIRMED

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
hailEC | Posted 10/29/2008 11:55:47 AM | message detail
More like Zero comeback.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/29/2008 11:56:51 AM | message detail
Sorry, I meant during school vote not before school vote if you couldn't tell. ARGH DAMN THESE TERMS
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/29/2008 12:00:18 PM | message detail
Uhhh...Nearly getting cut by Hayabusa is something you might want to avoid, Vivi.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/29/2008 12:06:19 PM | message detail
Argh, I've jinxed Vivi, slowly but surely!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
RPGGamer0 | Posted 10/29/2008 12:11:34 PM | message detail
Very slowly.

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