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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 613

charmander6000 | Posted 10/29/2008 5:06:56 AM | message detail
Vivi had night characters while Zero had day characters as their opponents so of course Zero was going to drop harder if anything I'd expect Zero to do better with the ASV, but at the same time here Vivi is gaining with the morning vote.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 141/200 Today's Match: Solid Snake > Zero
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/29/2008 5:26:09 AM | message detail
This match is proof of how stupid this format is. Barnburner match between 2 strong characters, and this topic hasn't exploded.
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"A joke format for a joke contest deserves joke winners." -Moltar
~*ST*~ NP: Mother 3, Spore, Castlevania: OoE,
Twilight Swift | Posted 10/29/2008 5:27:57 AM | message detail

UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/29/2008 8:26:09 AM (#052)
This match is proof of how stupid this format is. Barnburner match between 2 strong characters, and this topic hasn't exploded.


yea I mean really, it's an impossible to predict format. All the gurus took exceptional amounts of time predicting and creating brackets. I mad mine 2 hours before deadline and I'm leaderboard (and no it won't last, so mind my gloating.)

It's nothing but a big tossup that lacks foresight and good judgment like the other contests did.
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*~Swift~* The cream of Ganon Fanboyism.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2008 5:32:27 AM | message detail
Just because Vivi was gaining in the night doesn't mean he won't keep doing so in the day. The Mega Man trend is to storm for three hours and then just die off. Zero's not out of the woods yet.
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Zaxop | Posted 10/29/2008 5:54:36 AM | message detail
I do not see why MM fans would vote for Zero. If he gets put forward, not only will get creamed, he will weaken MM. It is like they are punching themselves in the face.
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Mmmmmmmmmm Brains!!
_Harmonica_ | Posted 10/29/2008 5:57:37 AM | message detail
You think the average GameFAQs voter can think that far ahead?

They could also be voting for their favorite character, which is kind of the point of the contest
transience | Posted 10/29/2008 6:00:09 AM | message detail
Zero's the favourite here but it's far from a sure thing.

go Vivi
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
H__RR____H | Posted 10/29/2008 6:12:10 AM | message detail
Vivi's making a solid push, though who knows if it means he will win now or not. No matter what happens, it feels like it'll be reliant on the ASV...which I think favors Zero.
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Lobby Hero
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/29/2008 6:15:06 AM | message detail
I do not see why MM fans would vote for Zero. If he gets put forward, not only will get creamed, he will weaken MM. It is like they are punching themselves in the face.

Last time they fought Zero held up so well that people were trying to make a new term called rSFF. (reverse SFF)

They're still going to LFF each other though.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 141/200 Today's Match: Solid Snake > Zero
H__RR____H | Posted 10/29/2008 6:41:28 AM | message detail
Yeah, no matter how MM/Zero finishes in respect to each other (I imagine Zero will improve a bit from 2k4, actually), they are going to LFF each other really hard. If it's Mega Man/WCC/Solid Snake/Zero, WCC will embarrass MM. If Vivi wins instead today, we'll still probably have Solid > Mega, though WCC will try to contend.
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Lobby Hero
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Crimson Dragoon | Posted 10/29/2008 6:45:19 AM | message detail
If nothing else, I no longer feel stupid for my Snake > VIvi pick here. It may not pan out exactly, but it wasn't as farfetched as people made it out to be.
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~FFDragon. (at Work !!) The Cream of Resident Evil Fanboyism.
H__RR____H | Posted 10/29/2008 6:56:50 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2008 6:56:52 AM | message detail
Looks like Vivi will grab the lead here soon and have a bit of time to build one of his own. Zero didn't seem to slow him down much, if any, with the morning vote either... it's all up to that vaunted Mega Man ASV now !!
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
hailEC | Posted 10/29/2008 6:57:11 AM | message detail
BT close your account.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
H__RR____H | Posted 10/29/2008 6:57:21 AM | message detail
It was a good pick, but it took until the contest started to be able to REALLY defend taking the upset, ya know? He's one of those semi-surprises of the contest.


So...

Liquid Snake
Mewtwo
Ryu Hayabusa
Vivi
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Lobby Hero
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2008 7:06:38 AM | message detail
MM lost the ASV to the WCC.




GO VIVI

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
H__RR____H | Posted 10/29/2008 7:07:12 AM | message detail
As of 10:00 AM, Vivi is currently expected to get 32.54% on Solid Snake...which is worse than the last round predicted (34.1% at 10:00 AM, 33.47% at the end). Solid simply looks even more impressive this round...

...though this may suggest Vivi drops a little bit from here. Sad day, but we'll see what happens from here soon enough.
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Lobby Hero
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2008 7:10:32 AM | message detail
Vivi will drop relative to Snake with the day vote (like he did last round darn you sakurai), and Ryu will be sucking up percentage too. The question is if he'll drop more than Zero will.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2008 7:14:58 AM | message detail
Oh, Zero wins the ASV by quite a bit. He's beaten Link and Luigi at it before.

Just let me live in my fantasyland where Vivi pulls this off.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
red sox 777 | Posted 10/29/2008 7:20:48 AM | message detail
MM characters like CT characters follow the typical obsolete character trends in that they have a strong initial vote then steadily die as the day goes on.

That would be why MM gave up the lead to Sonic in the morning, but still won, right? Anyway, Zero has different trends from MM (much better ASV, although it appears his morning is just as bad), so this should be pretty safe for him.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2008 7:21:45 AM | message detail
With that, Zero has had 4 updates in a row where his votals didn't suck up the place. Vivi's chances of building any sort of lead are slim.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2008 7:23:33 AM | message detail
With Zero, past is not necessarily prologue. He lost the ASV handily to everyone last match - yes, Ryu H and two Brawl characters, but the way he just rolled over doesn't inspire confidence.

Either way, it's pretty sad that he'll struggle to beat Vivi here despite having arguably the biggest picture advantage he's ever had.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2008 7:25:57 AM | message detail
That would be why MM gave up the lead to Sonic in the morning, but still won, right?

Mega Man didn't develop his awful trends until 2k6. Don't make the mistake of equating 2k5 MM with 2k6 MM. Ever since 2k6, the Blue Bomber has been the bottom rung of the NN.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
H__RR____H | Posted 10/29/2008 7:26:05 AM | message detail
Hey creativename, I just thought of a suggestion for the poll-updaters. You know how the update-pages have "Lead 1," "Lead 2," and "Lead 3" at the top...but you can't organize the poll updates by them like you can with the other categories at the top? What if they became links to be able to see "one-on-one" poll updates? For example, Lead 1 today would take us directly to a Solid/Zero-situation, Lead 2 would take us to Zero/Vivi, and Lead 3 would take us to Vivi/Hayabusa.

I understand there's a way to see those kinds of updates (though I don't know how), but it seems like it would give some ease to those trying to keep track of the closest match-ups that could come from each four-way.
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Lobby Hero
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/29/2008 7:31:13 AM | message detail
Looks like Vivi is finally going to do it.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 141/200 Today's Match: Solid Snake > Zero
H__RR____H | Posted 10/29/2008 7:36:12 AM | message detail
SUCCESS

Now, Vivi, it's on you to keep the lead.
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Lobby Hero
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/29/2008 7:44:51 AM | message detail
Come on Vivi!

*pukes for supporting FF character*
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JUSTICE FOR FORCEFUL DRAGON
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/29/2008 7:47:23 AM | message detail
A subtle gain.

Now, if we're presuming Zero wins the ASV, what kind of lead does Vivi need? And if Vivi loses the lead during the ASV does he have any hope with, say, the SNV?
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JUSTICE FOR FORCEFUL DRAGON
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2008 7:50:58 AM | message detail
In the current contests the only time where the SNV really ever matters is on weekend matches (what Frog did to Axel is called cheating).
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Demon HunterX | Posted 10/29/2008 7:53:35 AM | message detail
is zero really considered a good after school vote getter at this point? More and more kids aren't even playing the mega man series' anymore. Id expect Zero to do better than Vivi with the after school vote. But with Ryu and snake in the poll? Is there really that much for zero?
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O n e | Posted 10/29/2008 8:00:38 AM | message detail
I knew 6 hours ago that Vivi will beat Zero. It's not that hard to predict.

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Good times are ahead. Or behind. Because they sure aren't here.
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/29/2008 8:01:02 AM | message detail
Lol. Smurf has no idea. Zero wins.

Classic Curt.
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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/29/2008 8:02:09 AM | message detail
Well... last year in his match against Crono Vincent and Link he benefited from it almost as much as Link it seems like. That's got to be worth something
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/29/2008 8:02:59 AM | message detail
Zero will lose to ASV to Vivi, I'm baffled anyone thinks to the contrary. The match is over and the lead will not change again.
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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
charmander6000 | Posted 10/29/2008 8:04:33 AM | message detail
Zero may not be able to do anything with the ASV, but he won't be crushed by it at the hands of Vivi. Really Vivi only needs a few hundred vote lead.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 141/200 Today's Match: Solid Snake > Zero
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/29/2008 8:05:15 AM | message detail
8:00 Zero leads by 250
10:00 Level
12:00 Vivi leads by 300
3:00 Vivi leads by 600
6:00 Vivi leads by 1000
8:00 Vivi leads by 1200
10:00 Vivi leads by 1100
12:00 Vivi leads by 900


I wasn't far wrong, only 19 votes seperating them at 10:00 plus Vivi's well on his way to having that 300 vote lead in an hour's time. =D
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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/29/2008 8:07:34 AM | message detail
Zero may not be able to do anything with the ASV, but he won't be crushed by it at the hands of Vivi. Really Vivi only needs a few hundred vote lead.

This is correct, both of them are going to lose it to Ryu and possibly even Snake, don't expect any significant shifts between these two but I'd expect Vivi to narrowly edge it.
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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2008 8:09:16 AM | message detail
The point is we just need to make sure this isn't a close match one way or another

(because that will drive Snake's percent down and we can't have that)
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/29/2008 8:11:39 AM | message detail
I don't get the logic. You have Zero who matched Link's ASV last year, and Vivi who did worse than Wesker with the ASV this year. Why is Vivi projected to do better?
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/29/2008 8:12:00 AM | message detail
Dammit Snake hold
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/29/2008 8:13:00 AM | message detail
If BT bugs you that much there's an ignore feature, holding your end of an account bet takes integrity with along with a lot of other positive characteristics is something BT has none of. So I'm not going to expect anything from him. What's he got to lose by backing out? His board reputation, he never had that to begin with. All he'll achieve by losing the bet is pissing off a lot of people who didn't like him to begin with.

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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2008 8:14:04 AM | message detail
Who cares about BT I just need Snake to beat Cloud
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/29/2008 8:14:28 AM | message detail
I don't expect him to close his account, but I'm looking forward to giving him a hard time for it.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/29/2008 8:14:42 AM | message detail
that too
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
charmander6000 | Posted 10/29/2008 8:15:07 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure BT was joking about the 43-45% stuff like many of us do from time to time. Besides I don't think Snake will be above 43% when this is all done.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 141/200 Today's Match: Solid Snake > Zero
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/29/2008 8:15:38 AM | message detail
150 vote lead now (more or less).

Good stuff.
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JUSTICE FOR FORCEFUL DRAGON
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/29/2008 8:16:04 AM | message detail
Check the match again, Zero did not match Link's ASV he had less than that and most of his ASV gain was at the expense from the collapse of Crono who has the worst ASV in the whole contest. As well as that he was on freaking 11% so any slight upturn would result in huge percentage leaps. If you know anything about MM voting trends you'll know that they're incredibly frontloaded like Chrono Trigger and do not do well with the ASV.
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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2008 8:18:35 AM | message detail
yeahhhhhhh Snake! Excellent, excellent performance from him. Looks like MGS4/Brawl did do something for him after all! (i was kinda worried after that bleh performance last round)

oh and vivi passed zero...well then
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Moltar Status: augh
Ryu/Zero/Snake/Vivi - Bracket: Snake > Zero - Vote: Snake (141/200)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2008 8:28:17 AM | message detail
Jesus tapdancing Christ is Snake impressing here. I'm rapidly losing faith in Mega > Snake...
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
ZFS | Posted 10/29/2008 8:33:59 AM | message detail
Snake with 44% and Vivi in second (woo bracket) - great match right here.

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