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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 612

red sox 777 | Posted 10/28/2008 3:39:19 PM | message detail
And, you know, Magus put up a higher percentage than Frog against much stronger competition (Sonic > Ganon, Sandbag > Nightmare, Shepard > Neku). If Magus and Frog had their bracket placements switched since 2004, Magus would have broken the Noble Nine against sprite Snake instead of only getting 48%, and Frog would have never had a chance to pull any of his comebacks.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
Tohoya | Posted 10/28/2008 3:45:24 PM | message detail
Gotta agree with BT, here.

I'd take Auron over Sonic 1-on-1 these days
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"There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2008 3:47:41 PM | message detail
Yeah but you don't think Pokemon has overlap with NINTENDO
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/28/2008 3:52:05 PM | message detail
There's no reason for Sonic to have dropped, that's what. Sonic's been releasing critically panned games for YEARS now. Yet 2006 was by any reasonable account the strongest Sonic we've ever seen, and him scoring his first win over a fellow Noble ever. There's no reason for Sonic to suddenly have dropped to a level to where Sub-Zero could get 45% on him pre-Brawl announcement when Sonic was projected to beat him with 64% of the vote a year beforehand. The ONLY thing that changed was the format.

Sonic 2006 really was the straw that broke the camel's back in terms of crappy Sonic games.

And Sonic was the same strength in 2006 that he was in 2005. His match against Vincent and him and Mega Man being equal attest to that. Before 2006, there was hope that he might one day have a good game. Now even the Sonic fanboys are for the most part abandoning that sinking ship of a franchise.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2008 3:54:07 PM | message detail
So I'm assuming that no one has a compelling argument for believing Sonic dropped as opposed to the format, then.

Just checking!
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consolefreak | Posted 10/28/2008 3:56:08 PM | message detail
You're kidding yourself if you think character strengths hold up perfectly from one format to the other. L-Block beats Link one on one, really?

That's all the proof you need that this format makes a difference. That, and common sense. Sonic is well known, but doesn't have that many hardcore fans. Hence he performs worse in a 4-way format. It's not rocket science.
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 10/28/2008 4:02:49 PM | message detail
I can't see people suddenly jumping ship becuase of one game if they've been hanging on this long.

And Sonic was the same strength in 2006 that he was in 2005. His match against Vincent and him and Mega Man being equal attest to that.

If the lousy Sonic games are what's draining his strength, he should be falling from year to year not staying constant.
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Tohoya | Posted 10/28/2008 4:03:58 PM | message detail
Yeah but you don't think Pokemon has overlap with NINTENDO

And apparently some people don't think Zelda and Mario overlap considerably. They're the bat**** insane ones. (Not to start the argument back up, but if you don't think the average pokemon fan is of a considerably different type than the average Nintendo fan, you're a fool)

So I'm assuming that no one has a compelling argument for believing Sonic dropped as opposed to the format, then.

No one seems to have a compelling reason why the format would hurt sonic team so much, either.
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"There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/28/2008 4:05:06 PM | message detail

No one seems to have a compelling reason why the format would hurt sonic team so much, either.


Stats tell us it does.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2008 4:06:06 PM | message detail
No one seems to have a compelling reason why the format would hurt sonic team so much, either.

"You're kidding yourself if you think character strengths hold up perfectly from one format to the other. L-Block beats Link one on one, really?

That's all the proof you need that this format makes a difference. That, and common sense. Sonic is well known, but doesn't have that many hardcore fans. Hence he performs worse in a 4-way format. It's not rocket science."h
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 10/28/2008 4:07:40 PM | message detail
Sonic dropping due to the format change and Sonic dropping in general would look exactly the same in the stats. The stats only say Snoic has dropped not why he dropped.
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What do you think of the planetarium? The beautiful twinkling of eternity that will never fade, no matter when. All the stars in all the sky are waiting for you
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/28/2008 4:10:29 PM | message detail
That's all the proof you need that this format makes a difference. That, and common sense. Sonic is well known, but doesn't have that many hardcore fans. Hence he performs worse in a 4-way format. It's not rocket science.

I thought the "hardcore vs well-known" argument died last year, when all the characters with "hardcore" fanbases got their asses kicked as hard as they deserved to be. Laharl, Ness, Serge and many others. Tales characters have reached a whole new level of suck in the last 2 years. Name 3 "hardcore" characters that have clearly benefitted from this format compared to 1v1.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/28/2008 4:11:37 PM | message detail
There's no reason for Sonic to have dropped, that's what. Sonic's been releasing critically panned games for YEARS now. Yet 2006 was by any reasonable account the strongest Sonic we've ever seen, and him scoring his first win over a fellow Noble ever. There's no reason for Sonic to suddenly have dropped to a level to where Sub-Zero could get 45% on him pre-Brawl announcement when Sonic was projected to beat him with 64% of the vote a year beforehand. The ONLY thing that changed was the format.

KH is speaking so much truth at once, you may have to reread it BT.


You're kidding yourself if you think character strengths hold up perfectly from one format to the other. L-Block beats Link one on one, really?

My previous statement applies here, too.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/28/2008 4:11:51 PM | message detail
Name 3 "hardcore" characters that have clearly benefitted from this format compared to 1v1.

Master Chief
Pikachu
Gordon Freeman
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/28/2008 4:12:08 PM | message detail
And for the record, given an easy path and a chance to build up steam, I would have taken L-block to beat Link 1v1.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2008 4:15:08 PM | message detail
And for the record, given an easy path and a chance to build up steam, I would have taken L-block to beat Link 1v1.

Saving so he can't take it back
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ZFS | Posted 10/28/2008 4:15:08 PM | message detail
And for the record, given an easy path and a chance to build up steam, I would have taken L-block to beat Link 1v1.

Well there you go

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/28/2008 4:16:06 PM | message detail
Name 3 "hardcore" characters that have clearly benefitted from this format compared to 1v1.

Master Chief, Vincent, Frog, and Phoenix Wright all immediately come to mind. MC had Halo 3 so that may not be fair, but he was still 2% from beating Solid Snake and being in the finals. Vincent's mentioned for how hardcore FF7 is here. Frog is mentioned because only his hardcore fans would have rallied so hard for him against Axel. Phoenix is mentioned for the same reason except with a smaller fanbase.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/28/2008 4:17:06 PM | message detail
The fact that Frog would even need rallying against Axel kind of... well X_X
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/28/2008 4:23:52 PM | message detail
Master Chief
Pikachu
Gordon Freeman


Master Chief is the damn definition of casual gaming, and as we clearly saw, last year was more to do with HALO 3 IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ****ING CONTEST than anything else.

Pikachu is another one that is pure casual, and I called him correctly for the most part (damn that Dante/Leon weirdness). People were under the impression that the site is still comprised of 10 year old kids that think it's cool to hate on Pokemon or something.

Gordon totally disappointed in the first round by losing to Duke Nukem, and then turned that around with the release of the Orange Box. No format involvement whatsoever.

Vincent? He looked terrible against decent competition. A damn Pokemon was leading him for an hour. And since when is FINAL FANTASY FREAKING 7 a hardcore game? Chrono Trigger is far more hardcore, and Crono LOST to Vincent.

Phoenix? He did just about what was expected of him given his 2006 value. He just managed to cheat his way over Bomberman before jobbing in Round 2.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
HaRRicH | Posted 10/28/2008 4:28:17 PM | message detail
Also, about how Sonic Team does in this format: if you don't think Sonic Team suffers here, then explain each of these:

--> Why didn't Knuckles keep it close with Yoshi either time, especially when Mega Man was in their R2-match?
--> Why didn't Knuckles take advantage of Zelda being LFF'd by Mario?
--> Why was Zidane able to embarrass Shadow?
--> Why did DK/Tails change from a debated match to a blow-out in DK's favor?
--> Why was Tails and The Boss even close, much less a match-up Tails lost?
--> Why was Squall nearly able to beat Sonic twice despite Sora and Solid Snake (if you believe that timeless theory)?
--> Why was Sub-Zero able to get ~45% on Sonic pre-SSBB announcement?
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2008 4:28:33 PM | message detail
No reasonable counterarguments again then, I assume?

Just keeping sure!
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/28/2008 4:29:52 PM | message detail
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2008 4:32:14 PM | message detail
woo let's do this zombie Snake
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/28/2008 4:32:49 PM | message detail
...Wow.

Better luck next year, Vivi.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2008 4:32:57 PM | message detail
Also geez Zero moving on confirmed get out of my face dude
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/28/2008 4:33:06 PM | message detail
Vincent? He looked terrible against decent competition.

I'm sorry, but I really think you should close your account now as opposed to waiting for Solid/Mega next round.

If he was a little off in R1 this year, R2 completely redeemed him. Last year he did devastatingly good, too. I acknowledge CT is hardcore by also mentioning Frog in my examples, and Vincent beat Crono probably because FF7 is beaten at least twice by ~45% of the site and ~24% think it's the best game ever as of...2004 or 2005, I forget.


Phoenix? He did just about what was expected of him given his 2006 value. He just managed to cheat his way over Bomberman before jobbing in Round 2.

You don't think it would have been a lot harder for him to come back if it was one-on-one against Bomberman?
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/28/2008 4:34:00 PM | message detail
--> Why didn't Knuckles keep it close with Yoshi either time, especially when Mega Man was in their R2-match?

Yoshi was already far ahead of Knuckles in the stats, and you have to realize that whatever Mega Man was doing to Yoshi, he was also doing to Knuckles. It's silly to believe in Sonic/Nintendo SFF and not see that result

--> Why didn't Knuckles take advantage of Zelda being LFF'd by Mario?

Ditto

--> Why was Zidane able to embarrass Shadow?

Link/Shadow SFF, the same reason why Ryu was able to beat Bowser in the second round last year

--> Why did DK/Tails change from a debated match to a blow-out in DK's favor?

Tails lost to The Boss, who the hell was debating DK/Tails?

--> Why was Tails and The Boss even close, much less a match-up Tails lost?

Zelda was in that match

--> Why was Squall nearly able to beat Sonic twice despite Sora and Solid Snake (if you believe that timeless theory)?

I think 2006 pretty much killed any Snake/Squall overlap theories, given where he looked in respect to Vincent and Mega Man/Sonic. As for that match, my only guess is that it happened after people stopped caring for Sonic and his barrage of terrible games. The Secret Rings or whatever came out last year.

--> Why was Sub-Zero able to get ~45% on Sonic pre-SSBB announcement?

Ditto
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
HaRRicH | Posted 10/28/2008 4:34:53 PM | message detail
I love all of their pics, though I wish Solid's was brighter.

Zero in particular looks great...but here's to hoping Hayabusa advances (or at LEAST Vivi).
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
Iamthekuzalol | Posted 10/28/2008 4:35:31 PM | message detail
Pyramid head scored 16% against Bowser alone. In this format, he scored the same 16% against Chris/Auron/Shadow. Auron alone is already stronger than Bowser. Format does matter, just remember to close your account once Vivi or Ryu.H advances.

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Master Moltar | Posted 10/28/2008 4:36:07 PM | message detail
old snake, zero with a sword, vivi behind no fire, ryu uhh fanart?

let's do this
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Cube/Tidus/Mega Man/Nero - Bracket: Mega > Tidus - Vote: Mega (137/192)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2008 4:36:09 PM | message detail
Argh Zero moving on turns MM's chances from 1% to 0% but anyone else moving on ensures BT's account destruction

argh choices good thing I'm just gonna blindly vote for Snake
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/28/2008 4:37:37 PM | message detail
If he was a little off in R1 this year, R2 completely redeemed him. Last year he did devastatingly good, too. I acknowledge CT is hardcore by also mentioning Frog in my examples, and Vincent beat Crono probably because FF7 is beaten at least twice by ~45% of the site and ~24% think it's the best game ever as of...2004 or 2005, I forget.

That defeats your point of the "hardcore" characters doing better. And Vincent was... devastatingly good?

Sephiroth 31.48%

45633
Mario 22.24%

32239
Link 36.42%

52795
Vincent Valentine 9.85%

14277
TOTAL VOTES 144944


If you say so. Vincent didn't look any different last year than he did in 2006, unless you think Zelda/Samus was legit or something.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
HaRRicH | Posted 10/28/2008 4:37:58 PM | message detail
DK/Tails used to be a famously debated match-up. Long time ago though, but the format still did no favors...

...anyway, so you're blaming Nintendo or people instantly and collectively losing faith in Sonic's games instead of the format? Well, I can't say you're entirely wrong, but I predict the format means a lot more.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
HaRRicH | Posted 10/28/2008 4:40:39 PM | message detail
Vincent obliterated Zelda in a controversial match and beat Crono by over a percent. That's devastatingly good in comparison to what people expected from him pre-contest; if I recall, brackets were 50-50 on Vincent/Zelda and Crono was the huge favorite everywhere.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
Tohoya | Posted 10/28/2008 4:46:12 PM | message detail
Stats tell us it does.

*facepalm*

Stats tells us that Sonic is considerably weaker in 2k7, and probably, 2k8. There are two possible reasons for this: 1.) Sonic dropped. 2.) Sonic is hurt by the format.

I thought the "hardcore vs well-known" argument died last year, when all the characters with "hardcore" fanbases got their asses kicked as hard as they deserved to be. Laharl, Ness, Serge and many others. Tales characters have reached a whole new level of suck in the last 2 years. Name 3 "hardcore" characters that have clearly benefitted from this format compared to 1v1.

Amaterasu, at the very least (though it's possible she's just that strong, I'm not going that much wishful thinking.

My problem with this line of logic is that I don't see any reason why Sonic fans would be so much less hardcore. He did have a couple of systems riding on his back, after all. Sega fans seem like some of the most devoted, even if they've dropped off considerably in recent years.

There's no reason for Sonic to have dropped, that's what. Sonic's been releasing critically panned games for YEARS now. Yet 2006 was by any reasonable account the strongest Sonic we've ever seen, and him scoring his first win over a fellow Noble ever. There's no reason for Sonic to suddenly have dropped to a level to where Sub-Zero could get 45% on him pre-Brawl announcement when Sonic was projected to beat him with 64% of the vote a year beforehand. The ONLY thing that changed was the format.

True, things have been dropping, but SA1, 2, and Heroes were all reasonably well-received, even if they weren't considered instant classics. The series didn't really start going downhill till Shadow the Hedgehog and Sonic 06 (speaking of, was that abortion released in time for the 2k6 contest or not? Wiki says it was Nov 14, 2006 in America).

Oddly, I'm noticing that all of the arguments in favor of format changes are in relation to niche characters boosting because of it. Aside from Sonic team, are there any indications of a less-hardcore fanbase hurting a character in this format?

You're kidding yourself if you think character strengths hold up perfectly from one format to the other. L-Block beats Link one on one, really?

L-Block has a good reason to do much better in 4-way: a largely static fanbase (incidentally, he seems to be much less static this year, making me wonder if he might have some legitimate strength in 1v1. Though certainly not to BT's insane levels). I've yet to see so much of a compelling argument for Sonic dropping.

Also, about how Sonic Team does in this format: if you don't think Sonic Team suffers here, then explain each of these:

Sonic team has dropped because of ***** games. That's been the argument from the start.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/28/2008 4:49:08 PM | message detail
argh choices good thing I'm just gonna blindly vote for Snake

hail
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/28/2008 4:50:52 PM | message detail
Whoa man, goddamn it Zero, the one time I DON'T want you to advance you get your best picture since 2003...
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2008 4:52:43 PM | message detail
Aside from Sonic team, are there any indications of a less-hardcore fanbase hurting a character in this format?

Mario very nearly just lost to MMX, Zelda in the poll or not. Chris Redfield lost to Pyramid Head last year despite being a lock to beat him 1v1 due to the number of people that have played RE over SH alone. DK has been humiliated twice in the two last contests even though his last showing 1v1 was going 50/50 with Master Chief. Jokefodder lost to a trailer.

The format matters.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/28/2008 4:53:14 PM | message detail
so why did vivi get that sucktastic pic instead of his fire pic again
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/28/2008 4:55:14 PM | message detail
The format makes a huge difference on the results, so much so that I'm actually surprised we're still having this conversation. There are a ton of 1v1 matches where I'd go against what results from this format have indicated; as much as it pains me, I think Big Boss/Kirby would be one of them.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/28/2008 4:55:58 PM | message detail
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/fox_bang.png

Bang.
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Tohoya | Posted 10/28/2008 4:58:06 PM | message detail
Mario very nearly just lost to MMX, Zelda in the poll or not. Chris Redfield lost to Pyramid Head last year despite being a lock to beat him 1v1 due to the number of people that have played RE over SH alone. DK has been humiliated twice in the two last contests even though his last showing 1v1 was going 50/50 with Master Chief. Jokefodder lost to a trailer.

The format matters.


Mario vs. MMX is quite easily explained by Nintendo LFF. Pyramid Head is more of a niche fanbase doing well than a casual one doing poorly. DK is lol. Why does Jill have a more hardcore fanbase than Ocelot?

I'm not denying that the format matters- I just don't think it matters to Sonic (obviously, Pyramid Head, Ammy, Phoenix, et al, do better in the format). Even if it does matter to Sonic to a certain extent, is it so asinine to believe that at least part of his precipitous drop in strength has to do with his actual strength dropping as opposed to the format?
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"There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/28/2008 4:59:25 PM | message detail
By the way, I think Zero got the same picture he overperformed with last year. Notice how the big bad Noble 9er looks a little meh in both pictures:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb6/cb6-40.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-42.jpg

I'm certainly liking Zero's chances more than a few minutes ago.
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_Hogger_ | Posted 10/28/2008 5:00:00 PM | message detail

PartOfYourWorld (#194)
By the way, I think Zero got the same picture he overperformed with last year. Notice how the big bad Noble 9er looks a little meh in both pictures:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb6/cb6-40.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-42.jpg

I'm certainly liking Zero's chances more than a few minutes ago.



This years pic is even better... shows off his sword
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/28/2008 5:00:54 PM | message detail
I had no idea that blue thing was a sword until Moltar the Ever-helpful mentioned it!
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/28/2008 5:01:51 PM | message detail

PartOfYourWorld (#196)
I had no idea that blue thing was a sword until Moltar the Ever-helpful mentioned it!


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red sox 777 | Posted 10/28/2008 5:02:01 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
_Hogger_ | Posted 10/28/2008 5:02:07 PM | message detail
http://art3.server06.sheezyart.com/medium/123/1230208.jpg
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2008 5:03:38 PM | message detail
Why does Jill have a more hardcore fanbase than Ocelot?

I only let one misidentification of jokefodder slide before I move to putting people on permaignore, but I'll let you try again - lost to Meta-Knight.
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