GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 612
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/27/2008 9:06:45 PM | message detail |
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Hey. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| FFDragon | Posted 10/27/2008 9:07:06 PM | message detail |
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Ho. --- If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE] http://img.imgcake.com//wesker.gif |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/27/2008 9:07:50 PM | message detail |
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HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO *hits FFD with a 2x4* --- It has War, ExTha, and Crasty insulting each other as hedgehogs while being vaguely about your boobs. What did you expect. - Shadow The ExTha |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/27/2008 9:07:54 PM | message detail |
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Woah. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/27/2008 9:08:49 PM | message detail |
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Shaped like Cloud to eliminate Mario! --- Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest: Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/27/2008 9:17:04 PM | message detail |
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Is...is Mega Man impressing? Even if only by a very small amount? Be still my beating heart. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/27/2008 9:19:03 PM | message detail |
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SNES resurgence! Let's go Link > Crono > Samus > Zack! --- Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest: Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2008 9:22:55 PM | message detail |
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MM impressing? I see Cube getting its relatively static percentage,
Tidus doing 'eh', and Nero absolutely sucking with the competition.
Which, considering MM's performance on him last round... Put this another way - I think we have our answer to the conundrum of who's stronger between Vivi and Nero. I know some people were asking themselves... --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| CrazyAznChick | Posted 10/27/2008 9:23:56 PM | message detail |
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tomorrow i bet bacon will accept some lame pic of vivi, not the fire one and screw his chances --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2008 9:27:40 PM | message detail |
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I'm probably a lone dissenter in believing Vivi's burning hands pic
doesn't help him, but I stick by it - normally the more badass pic =
the better option, but anything that distracts from or even partially
obscures the BMF is something Vivi doesn't want. Still, Zero will probably need a sword pic to get through. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| paraboxx | Posted 10/27/2008 9:34:10 PM | message detail |
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This is as close as we've come this year to a 40-30-20-10 poll. Maybe the closest we're ever going to get. Did we get closer last year, even? |
| Gaddswell | Posted 10/27/2008 9:38:27 PM | message detail |
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Here's a very nice 40 / 30 / 20 / 10 poll last year: Leon / Spyro / Ridley / Vivi http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2886&num=4 --- sig |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/27/2008 9:38:33 PM | message detail |
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A 40-30-20-10 poll??? Boooooooooooo-rrrrrrring. NEXT!! --- Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/27/2008 9:42:44 PM | message detail |
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A few thoughts: 1) Looks like we can confirm that the Noble Nine underperformances were due to the fact they were the obvious winners in each match. That makes Vivi's value highly inflated. 2) Should be a good match between Zero and Hayabusa tomorrow. We'll finally see if Snake was the reason Riku beat him last year in round 2. 3) Mega Man looking great here. Doing about what I expected. Snake needs to break about 35% tomorrow for me to even consider him having a chance of beating the Blue Bomber next round. --- I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg |
| ffmasterjose | Posted 10/27/2008 9:42:47 PM | message detail |
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boring match is boring --- 143/192 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII NP: Mega Man > Tidus | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0 |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/27/2008 9:49:21 PM | message detail |
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Amaterasu's performance looks even better here. We've had 3 Noble
Niners and Vincent in 5 days, and in each case the second place
character in the NNer/Vincent's round 1 match did worse in round 2, but
Nightmare, Falco, and now Nero did dramatically worse, while Ammy held
up fairly well (and against probably the strongest 4-pack of these,
too). --- Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest: Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard |
| paraboxx | Posted 10/27/2008 9:49:25 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2886&num=4 Cool, that is closer. Only 2.25% difference total! Maybe this one'll beat it with the day vote? (Mega Man rising, Tidus and the Cube falling...sounds about right to me.) |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/27/2008 10:14:30 PM | message detail |
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BT, you're supposed to be saving your spin for our account-topic! --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/27/2008 10:19:45 PM | message detail |
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More seriously...if you want to say Vivi over-performed because he was
in second last round, that's fine, but I would recommend looking at how
Tidus is doing today instead of Nero to judge Vivi. Last year (and,
really, the years before if memory serves me right) showed Vivi >
Tidus, so it could be entertaining to speculate on tomorrow's match
with that assumption in place. It also doesn't hurt Zidane improved a lot in the first round this year compared to previous years, but we ultimately never got enough on him to get a good read to fairly judge that. Still, a nice impression to compliment Vivi > Tidus. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/27/2008 10:27:52 PM | message detail |
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Vivi and Teedus weren't too far off from eachother in their direct
matchup last year. I'd say Vivi beats Tidus 55-45 on his best day. And
given all of our other evidence, it seems Zidane's first round
performance may not have been just Shadow/Link SFF, but a little bit of
the Noble Nine First Round Failure Factor as well. Assuming that, this puts WCC at a high midcarder level. Will be interesting to see how it stacks up against Hayabusa next round. --- I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/27/2008 10:37:41 PM | message detail |
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For the record, I refuse to compare Vivi/Hayabusa/Zero to WCC until the
winner of V/RH/Z faces WCC next round...and, really, it wouldn't be
fair to compare WCC to Zero with Mega Man in the poll if Zero advances. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| creativename | Posted 10/27/2008 11:37:19 PM | message detail |
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I was already thinking that Link>L-Block in the final has the
highest chances among the various possibilities there, and after the
Crono>L-Block match I'm thinking that even moreso. L-Block didn't too to great there. It's obviously enough to get past the next round, and sadly L should have little trouble with Link/Mario/Samus/L-Block should the Block make it that far (and assuming Mario does as well). There is a question of just what would happen in a Link/MMX/Samus/L-Block match - but I think the percentages that MMX could get with Link and L in there are too low to get past L either. The big match is of course Samus/Vincent/Crono/L-Block. I myself think L-Block will in fact get above 25% there, which would be enough to get past the Crono/Vincent winner. So we're left with Link/L-Block/Snake/Cloud. Snake won't do well here, as we've already seen with last year's final. And though I don't think Cloud will do quite as badly as last year, L-Block will still need at least 28%, more likely 29%+ to beat out Link. 30% would probably be enough. However, while I think he'll be strong enough to probably beat out Cloud based on his static-ness, I think he'll be a ways off from the Link-killer he was last year. And I don't think he'll be able to hold off Link this time. So I think we see Link>L-Block. With, IMO, Link>Cloud being more likely than L-Block>Link. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/27/2008 11:43:51 PM | message detail |
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Except for Cube taking names, pretty booring matchup. --- Warning, there is a bear right behind you. Ride Him. |
| Lopen | Posted 10/27/2008 11:56:33 PM | message detail |
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I gave the idiots of GameFAQs the benefit of a doubt here, thinking maybe just maybe the Cube is being primarily backed by the Portal Fanbase. HAHAHA IT'S A CUBE HA HA HAHA --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby. Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? IB Cry moar |
| nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/28/2008 12:02:37 AM | message detail |
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YES YES YES YES **** YES! --- Ngirl has arived and looked at the poll. |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/28/2008 12:14:53 AM | message detail |
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WCC has a great shot next round, especially if Zero is in the poll. If
it makes it to the quarters, I don't see why it wouldn't be considered
a danger. Getting past Snake is tough, but WCC will be greatly aided by
Cloud being there and acting as a vacuum. A measly 25% will be enough
to seal the deal in that one. From there, it's a semifinal bout against
Cloud/Sephiroth/Third Guy (Sonic? Chief?), which would be a guarantee
at that point and would also guarantee Link > Cloud in the finals. Hell, I think Cube can manage a quarterfinal trip even without Zero there to help him. He/it is certainly looking good for it tonight. --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/28/2008 12:15:35 AM | message detail |
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People love the cube. you should too. --- Warning, there is a bear right behind you. Ride Him. |
| Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/28/2008 12:17:26 AM | message detail |
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On an unrelated topic, We're The Robots is possibly the best tune in a video game in years http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUawcYIjnCE --- Warning, there is a bear right behind you. Ride Him. |
| -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/28/2008 1:48:00 AM | message detail |
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WCC gets his first cut on Mega Man. --- Participate in my Presidential Election Prediction Challenge: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=46163188 |
| satai_delenn | Posted 10/28/2008 1:50:14 AM | message detail |
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| satai_delenn | Posted 10/28/2008 1:51:41 AM | message detail |
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augh this is painful Umm...quick, look for a bright side...Tidus cut one vote earlier...! >_> --- Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE! |
| transience | Posted 10/28/2008 2:45:17 AM | message detail |
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there's nothing like Mega Man's pre-morning death --- xyzzy la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la |
| -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/28/2008 3:41:29 AM | message detail |
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17 vote cut by WCC. On that update, WCC had a 35.22% update while Mega Man had a 31.21% update. --- Participate in my Presidential Election Prediction Challenge: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=46163188 |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/28/2008 4:19:12 AM | message detail |
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Man, barely any discussion on this match at all, eh? Poor Tidus though. At least you didn't blow it in the first round. Strange how the two weakest Noble Niners have managed to impress against the joke entries. Put this another way - I think we have our answer to the conundrum of who's stronger between Vivi and Nero. I know some people were asking themselves... I kinda figured this would happen, and I'm kinda worried the same thing might happen to Vivi tomorrow. Not that he'll get 11% or whatever, but there's the OFPF (Obvious First Place Factor). --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/28/2008 4:21:53 AM | message detail |
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I love Mega Man's picture today --- The Straight Up G The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/28/2008 4:35:30 AM | message detail |
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So...should I give Captain Falcon his base value from yesterday or
should I make him proportional to Alucard from round 1? Not really sure
what to do there. He's in a SFF situation either way. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/28/2008 4:58:28 AM | message detail |
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Yesterday's chart: Time | Alucard | Falcon | Pikachu | Arthas EBV | 28.59% | 21.29% | 31.68% | 18.44% | (0:00-0:05) PHV | 28.87% | 21.13% | 30.08% | 19.92% | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 30.58% | 18.28% | 28.16% | 22.98% | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 29.25% | 19.97% | 31.58% | 19.21% | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 31.36% | 18.02% | 28.16% | 22.46% | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 27.27% | 20.14% | 32.46% | 20.13% | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 29.85% | 17.01% | 30.01% | 23.13% | (22:00-24:00) Pikachu's and Captain Falcon's board vote and Power Hour are great. Arthas has a bad board vote, great night vote. Alucard does great during the non-morning periods, though he didn't experience a major drop in the early morning. The ASV is where Pikachu took him to town. For the record, Captain Falcon beat Arthas with the ASV by exactly 1 vote. Yesterday's stats: Pikachu – 50.00% Alucard – 49.12% Arthas Menethil – 41.17% Captain Falcon – 38.82% I'm going to do two sets of stats for the bottom half, and you guys tell me which ones you like better. Division 4, Bottom Half Pikachu – 50.00% Alucard – 49.12% Arthas Menethil – 41.17% Ike – 40.53% Captain Falcon – 38.82% Spy – 32.14% Diddy Kong – 30.37% Kratos Aurion – 28.43% This is giving Captain Falcon his base value from yesterday (and makes me wonder why people are so confident he beats Ike. He didn't do anything of the sort yesterday to convince me of that). This makes Spy look great and Diddy and Kratos look bad. Spy probably benefits from having his value based on a split-fanbase'd Pikachu from round 1. Division 4, Bottom Half Pikachu – 50.00% Alucard – 49.12% Ike – 44.65% Captain Falcon – 43.63% Arthas Menethil – 41.17% Diddy Kong – 34.13% Spy – 32.14% Kratos Aurion – 31.95% Either way, Kratos ends up on the bottom. Ike and Captain Falcon each move above Arthas by a little bit, and Diddy gets a little above Spy here. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| __hiei__ | Posted 10/28/2008 5:25:34 AM | message detail |
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funny how Megaman is the one behaving like a joke character here seems mega's way worse than Crono in the day...aty least this year. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/28/2008 5:34:30 AM | message detail |
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I'd go with the second one since it's more adjusted, but next round we're going to see Pikachu's true colours. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 137/192 Today's Match: Mega Man > Tidus |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/28/2008 7:10:33 AM | message detail |
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What I like about today's match is that it makes Olimar look even worse. So, to all these people who kept saying "We need to give Olimar a shot blah blah blah" .... LOLIMAR --- Today's prediction: Mega Man 34.85% - Cube 26.08% - Tidus 23.72% - Nero 15.35% Status: Meh |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/28/2008 7:18:10 AM | message detail |
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to all these people who kept saying "We need to give Olimar a shot blah blah blah" .... LOLIMAR This. Mario whipping him as badly as he did in 2k3 was not just SFF - Olimar's THAT weak. --- Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/28/2008 7:33:26 AM | message detail |
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Yeah, the guy who doubled Olimar is at 11.31% right now. Whoo! --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/28/2008 7:38:05 AM | message detail |
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Tidus and Nero regained some dignity after Mega Man and WCC had their
great board vote. The percentages should stay roughly the same from
here on out. Mega Man and Tidus may gain a little bit with the evening
vote. --- I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/28/2008 7:39:37 AM | message detail |
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This is pretty much a repeat of Crono's match a few days ago, with Nero/MM swapping 5 percent woo --- Moltar Status: augh Cube/Tidus/Mega Man/Nero - Bracket: Mega > Tidus - Vote: Mega (137/192) |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/28/2008 7:39:44 AM | message detail |
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Uhhh...11.31% is better than being in single digits, but I'd hardly
call it regaining dignity. He's still getting doubled by Tidus. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/28/2008 7:57:26 AM | message detail |
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Let's get some discussion for tomorrow (and next round, too, I suppose). What does Snake need to get tomorrow to make you think he's ready to take on Mario and Samus? Do you think Mega Man's performance today is enough to save him from the Cube if Zero isn't there? --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/28/2008 7:57:39 AM | message detail |
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I think your second set of stats are better simply because putting Arthas above Ike and CF isn't a good idea at this point. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/28/2008 8:00:15 AM | message detail |
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I seriously doubt WCC beats Mega Man if Zero isn't there. As for Snake...38% would really impress me. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/28/2008 8:02:10 AM | message detail |
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I think your second set of stats are better simply because putting Arthas above Ike and CF isn't a good idea at this point. Well, he finished above them both, so I thought about giving him the benefit of the doubt. Seems pretty obvious Pikachu was splitting with them though. The fact that Ike handled it better seems to tell me he'd beat Captain Falcon, so I'm not sure why people think Falcon would be the beneficiary in a SFF match between the two. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/28/2008 8:11:01 AM | message detail |
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Well some people here seem to think that the FE fanbase is nonexistent and that Smash seniority means something. >_> --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
