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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 611

WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/27/2008 7:50:44 AM | message detail
man i hope the term LFF dies out like votals did

Hey! I used votals to justify Alucard advancing! Don't be bashing the mighty votals!
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...I'm still War13104!
"and seriously, white flags, god damnit. v.v" - ExThaNemesis, 11:44 PM EST, 1/28/07
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/27/2008 7:53:24 AM | message detail
Man, what happened to L-Block's board vote and Power Hour?

I did look into this earlier and might have some interesting ideas about this.

When you look solely L-Block's first four matches from last year, L-Block should have on average, about 4568 votes at the end of the Power Hour. This time, L-Block had just 3561 votes at the end of the Power Hour. That's about 1000 votes below the average. In the first four L-Block matches from last year, L-Block gets around 4500 votes in the Power Hour and harshly drops off by receiving about 2000 votes less in the second hour. While in yesterday's L-Block match, L-Block had a less severe drop off going into the second hour (3561 in the Power Hour to 2427 in the second hour).

I also think that L-Block's strength is now being powered more by bracket voters rather than people voting for L-Block for the joke appeal. I guess this might be possible, since I've heard many people saying that L-Block isn't funny anymore. If L-Block is being powered by bracket voters, then L-Block's vote totals should decrease even more next round as you have even fewer brackets taking L-Block to the third round as there were to the second round.

L-Block received almost 5000 votes less from the last round. Using the stats provided on each match, a total of 66.04% of all brackets (28333 brackets) had L-Block in either first or second in the first round. This round, only 49.50% of all brackets (21237 brackets) had L-Block in either first or second. That's a loss of around 7000 brackets supporting L-Block going even farther and since most people vote according to their brackets, L-Block lost out on a lot of votes. L-Block will have no trouble getting past round 3, since Pikachu and Alucard are weaker than Ryu. It will be in round 4 that we might need some massive internet rallying just to get L-Block to round 5, as I doubt Crono and Vincent will Square SFF themselves badly enough to let L-Block get by.

Crono had it beat from the start.

Quite unusual as even L-Block had no trouble taking the lead over Snake in the their first match-up last year, and that was the match where Snake would go on to beat L-Block by over 5000 votes. This is also the first match where L-Block failed to have over 30% at the first freeze of the match and failed to finish the match with 28% or higher.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 8:00:46 AM | message detail
these contests never cease to amaze
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2008 8:03:23 AM | message detail
I think bracket voting starts going downhill once the first round is over. Still it will be interesting to see how much more Crono can defeat L-Block next round
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 129/184 Today's Match: Pikachu > Alucard
jonthomson | Posted 10/27/2008 8:03:27 AM | message detail
countdown to pikachu voting kids waking up?
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Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2008 8:04:20 AM | message detail
You mean kiddies coming home from school. In about 3.5 hours.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 129/184 Today's Match: Pikachu > Alucard
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 8:05:01 AM | message detail
Yeah seems Alucard already gave up the lead to the morning vote but is building it back up now
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2008 8:06:44 AM | message detail
Actually Alucard didn't lose the lead yet he only let Pikachu get within 18 votes.

It's all part of the plan.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 129/184 Today's Match: Pikachu > Alucard
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 8:10:33 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 8:11:06 AM | message detail
at least I'm gonna continue rallying at a minor level to make sure Arthas doesn't lose to Falcon

gained lead by 60 since i woke up!
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Merc25 | Posted 10/27/2008 8:26:35 AM | message detail
MyWorldIsCrono
#025

""PegasusLover123 (#104)
"Hmm i wonder.

It could the ff fans as well as Disgaea fans combining a rally for Alucard so he can kill Arthas to avenge Ramza and Laharl who were killed by a WoW Hogger rally.

Just my theory, but otherwise i can't explain this sudden power burst from Alucard.
"


I doubt they're that smart.
""

Damn! I wish I thought of that [voted for Arthas].
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 8:28:55 AM | message detail
At this point Alucard is gonna be manhandled come asv
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/27/2008 8:30:58 AM | message detail
Anyone who thought Alucard wasn't going to get manhandled come ASV time after losing 400 or so votes to the morning vote is silly. >_>
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...I'm still War13104!
"and seriously, white flags, god damnit. v.v" - ExThaNemesis, 11:44 PM EST, 1/28/07
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 8:33:37 AM | message detail
haha arthas just cut pikachu
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/27/2008 8:34:04 AM | message detail
uhh....nice update, Pikachu.
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...I'm still War13104!
"and seriously, white flags, god damnit. v.v" - ExThaNemesis, 11:44 PM EST, 1/28/07
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/27/2008 8:35:24 AM | message detail
MyWorldIsCrono
I doubt they're that smart.


I love self-irony.
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Tohoya | Posted 10/27/2008 8:36:31 AM | message detail
Part of Chief and Pika's strength in 4-ways is the reduced effect of anti-votes.

We don't know that Pikachu would be anywhere near as antivoted now as he was in 2003. There's a reason why he made the bracket after a considerable absence: the pokemon hate has largely died out. The marketing phenomenon has largely disappeared, as has the show and the cards, leaving just the excellent gameboy games.

Of course, this odd Pikachu hate in the topic makes me think that maybe you guys are right.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 8:37:08 AM | message detail

Tohoya (#217)
Part of Chief and Pika's strength in 4-ways is the reduced effect of anti-votes.

We don't know that Pikachu would be anywhere near as antivoted now as he was in 2003. There's a reason why he made the bracket after a considerable absence: the pokemon hate has largely died out. The marketing phenomenon has largely disappeared, as has the show and the cards, leaving just the excellent gameboy games.

Of course, this odd Pikachu hate in the topic makes me think that maybe you guys are right.



Pikachu is still the face of everything people hate about Pokemon
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 8:39:05 AM | message detail
double cut on pikachu by arthas

lets make this a trend
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 8:43:46 AM | message detail
triple cut for arthas on pikachu

LETS DO THIS
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/27/2008 8:44:34 AM | message detail
Uhh....okay Alucard, slow down a bit, for the sake of my prediction.
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...I'm still War13104!
"and seriously, white flags, god damnit. v.v" - ExThaNemesis, 11:44 PM EST, 1/28/07
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2008 8:46:23 AM | message detail
Looks like kids that play hooky hate Pikachu the very most of all
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 8:48:13 AM | message detail
its not so much alucard going well as pikachu dying. he's losing .05% an update
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/27/2008 9:04:32 AM | message detail
Eh, I just checked my bracket, and I actually have Alucard > Pikachu.

GO ALUCARD GO!
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...I'm still War13104!
"and seriously, white flags, god damnit. v.v" - ExThaNemesis, 11:44 PM EST, 1/28/07
TestIcicles | Posted 10/27/2008 9:08:49 AM | message detail
So is it being assumed here that Pika wins relatively easily? Don't have time to read up on everything I've missed.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 9:09:33 AM | message detail

TestIcicles (#225)
So is it being assumed here that Pika wins relatively easily? Don't have time to read up on everything I've missed.



Yeah, Alucard has no where near the lead he'll need for the asv barrage
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/27/2008 9:10:11 AM | message detail
Eh, if Alucard keeps THIS pace up until 2:30-3:00, he might have a chance. A slim chance, but a chance nonetheless.
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...I'm still War13104!
"and seriously, white flags, god damnit. v.v" - ExThaNemesis, 11:44 PM EST, 1/28/07
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 9:20:28 AM | message detail
sigh

since i woke up about 11, Arthas has been almost even with Alucard and Pikachu

why couldnt he do this overnight
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jonthomson | Posted 10/27/2008 9:35:55 AM | message detail
ouch, that last five built the lead well
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Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/27/2008 9:36:03 AM | message detail
Hmm....in the last hour, Alucard has gained 305 votes on Pikachu. If he keeps that up for another 2 and a half hours, he'll have a lead of over 1300 by the time the ASV hits. That....might be enough, given that Pikachu didn't do nearly as well with the ASV as Ike last round, and that Alucard's day vote, while awful, is still way better than CT's.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2008 9:36:27 AM | message detail
Whoa what's up DSV

Pikachu should still have this easily but Alucard gaining 65 votes an update is at least a little jarring to that theory
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/27/2008 9:37:34 AM | message detail
A little jarring? It's like one of those pickle jars that no man has the strength to open!

So that's the plan!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2008 9:38:23 AM | message detail
why is it I see more puns than analysis from yo these days
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 9:38:41 AM | message detail
pikachu is just being pathetic right now
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/27/2008 9:39:08 AM | message detail
I thought my crew write-up for this one was alright. =(
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The Mana Sword | Posted 10/27/2008 9:44:04 AM | message detail
Pikachoke
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 9:44:30 AM | message detail
At least Arthas being 3rd seems like a done deal

<_______<
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/27/2008 9:46:06 AM | message detail
Pikachu's not exactly a beast with the ASV, but Alucard really needs to break a 1500 lead here if he wants to survive.

Also, oddly, Pikachu only cut about 200 votes with the true morning vote, unless all the kiddies got up two hours early this morning. This match is weird.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/27/2008 9:48:07 AM | message detail
Morning vote begins at 6 AM on school days. But yeah, Alucard is doing better now than he was overnight. Maybe those Cloud/Pikachu trends are more accurate than we thought (Pikachu winning the first night vote).
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2008 9:49:30 AM | message detail
Pikachu's not exactly a beast with the ASV, but Alucard really needs to break a 1500 lead here if he wants to survive.

I don't think it'll be enough... but at this rate, he just might.
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Jose Escamilla | Posted 10/27/2008 9:49:39 AM | message detail
The hell Pikachu?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 9:50:11 AM | message detail
A question I got is though... think Falcon will hamper Pikachu at all with the asv?
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/27/2008 9:51:06 AM | message detail
As for the SFF/LFF debate, I prefer using SFF always- it's same fanbase factor; those words do not at face value imply anything about how that fanbase is splitting, just that it is splitting.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/27/2008 9:53:46 AM | message detail
Captain Falcon was great with the ASV against Alucard last round, and I can imagine Pikachu will be, too. Pikachu doesn't even have to be that great with it. Alucard is just that bad during the ASV.

Alucard's trying to build a huge lead before then though. Should be interesting.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 10:01:48 AM | message detail
god this site is busy im rallying at

sometimes my topic drops off first page in less then a minute
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2008 10:04:03 AM | message detail

red sox 777 (#243)
As for the SFF/LFF debate, I prefer using SFF always- it's same fanbase factor; those words do not at face value imply anything about how that fanbase is splitting, just that it is splitting.



At least someone here sees it the way I do!
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Moltar Status: augh
Alucard/Falcon/Pikachu/Arthas - Bracket: Pikachu > Alucard - Vote: Falcon (129/184)
RPGGamer0 | Posted 10/27/2008 10:10:27 AM | message detail
500 votes gained in two hours is nuts.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/27/2008 10:21:56 AM | message detail
Alucard's pace is already slowing. Ah well, at least this will end up being respectable.
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TRE Public Account | Posted 10/27/2008 10:23:37 AM | message detail
SFF and LFF are both "SFF" in the sense that they are both related to fanbase overlap, but they refer to different effects of it. SFF refers to one side getting killed because the fanbase disproportionately favors one side. LFF refers to both characters hurting each other relative to a third character outside of the fanbase.

If two characters of the same fanbase face each other and they both looked about normal relative to each other, it's common to say there was no SFF in the match. If a third character was added to the match and the first two characters underperform relative to that characters we would say there was LFF but not SFF.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 10:24:46 AM | message detail
Arthas/Diablo last year and Luigi/Bowser this year are obvious examples of LFF
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