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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 611

idyvino | Posted 10/27/2008 1:16:29 AM | message detail
Why??
Well, just my sense..

I think Alucard will manage to get a good margin before ASV start.

But, what the heck?? I am rallying for Pikachu in some local site..
So beware Alucard!!
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DECLARE YOURSELF ASIA
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/27/2008 1:17:07 AM | message detail
idyvino (#149)
I don't think ASV will succumb Alucard lead..


Why? Castlevania sucks with the day vote. Pokemon has a good day vote. How is Alucard NOT in trouble when the ASV hits?
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
Lopen | Posted 10/27/2008 1:17:10 AM | message detail
Early Asia vote should counteract Pika's ASV. Asians love their bishounen or whatever.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe
greatone10 | Posted 10/27/2008 1:17:38 AM | message detail
The only chance Pikachu has of losing this match is if either Alucard picks up the pace, or Falcon takes all of the ASV support for some freaky reason.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/27/2008 1:17:54 AM | message detail
Arthas is clearly LFFing Alucard. Undead SFF > Brawl SFF
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 1:17:58 AM | message detail

Fayt_Esteed (#152)
idyvino (#149)
I don't think ASV will succumb Alucard lead..


Why? Castlevania sucks with the day vote. Pokemon has a good day vote. How is Alucard NOT in trouble when the ASV hits?



Didn't you know? Kids love characters who haven't had a game during their life time
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/27/2008 1:19:36 AM | message detail
I think Alucard will manage to get a good margin before ASV start.

At the rate he's working? No, he's not. Frog had a 1900 vote lead on Axel last year. When the ASV hit, Frog was losing 400 votes per hour. Alucard won't be getting such a lead before teh ASV starts.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/27/2008 1:20:16 AM | message detail
The early asian vote will save Alucard
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idyvino | Posted 10/27/2008 1:21:25 AM | message detail
Early Asia vote should counteract Pika's ASV. Asians love their bishounen or whatever.

Not all Asians.. I think you mean the Japanese and Chinese??
Yet, I am not doubt that Pikachu can obtain MASS ASIAN vote..

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DECLARE YOURSELF ASIA
idyvino | Posted 10/27/2008 1:24:04 AM | message detail
Alucard maybe can still in the lead if he manages to build a 2000+ margin against Pikachu before this ASV start.

But, I can tell you that in my country and some neighboring country, PIKACHU is the HOT favorite for this round.

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DECLARE YOURSELF ASIA
Lopen | Posted 10/27/2008 1:25:14 AM | message detail
I am of ASIA descent myself, and not Japanese or Chinese, I can attest that bishounen love spreads through many cultures.

The MASS ASIAN vote might very well go to Alucard.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/27/2008 1:25:48 AM | message detail

At the rate he's working? No, he's not. Frog had a 1900 vote lead on Axel last year. When the ASV hit, Frog was losing 400 votes per hour. Alucard won't be getting such a lead before teh ASV starts.


You can't compare Pokémon with KH. Kingdom Hearts and HALO are the only two fanbases that cut that much. And that's only against CT characters...

I say Alucard has to get above 1300 or so. Only 900 left and he got lots of hours.

"DIE MONSTER, YOU DON'T BELONG IN THIS WORLD!"
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
PokemonPatriarch | Posted 10/27/2008 1:30:15 AM | message detail
Vampires die at the first sight of the sun. Therefore, Pikachu should have this by 12:00 PM, when every inch of the continental U.S. will be bathed in the warm, warm glow of Alucard poison.
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idyvino | Posted 10/27/2008 1:31:35 AM | message detail
I am of ASIA descent myself, and not Japanese or Chinese, I can attest that bishounen love spreads through many cultures.
The MASS ASIAN vote might very well go to Alucard.


Okay but I need to denied that Alucard is well known is Southeast Asia
Pikachu is the far most more popular and well known is Southeast Asia excluding Indonesia because Pokemon was banned there.

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DECLARE YOURSELF ASIA
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/27/2008 1:34:00 AM | message detail
How exactly can you have confidence in Alucard when he's struggling to build a lead at 4 AM in the freaking morning? He's fried during day time
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idyvino | Posted 10/27/2008 1:36:24 AM | message detail
How exactly can you have confidence in Alucard when he's struggling to build a lead at 4 AM in the freaking morning? He's fried during day time

Believe me.. I hope he will toast when ASV start.
Try to keep a optimistic mind. Don't want to let my hope high.
Pikachu need to win this!!

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DECLARE YOURSELF ASIA
CP724 | Posted 10/27/2008 2:32:37 AM | message detail
Pikachu cutting already.
ffmasterjose | Posted 10/27/2008 3:10:57 AM | message detail
Come on Pikachu

Damn, I forgot a new Castlevania game just came out recently.

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135/184 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Pikachu > Alucard | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0
idyvino | Posted 10/27/2008 4:10:16 AM | message detail
Pikachu is getting close against Alucard,,
only 199 vote margin..

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DECLARE YOURSELF ASIA
charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2008 5:03:38 AM | message detail
Just give it up Alucard.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 129/184 Today's Match: Pikachu > Alucard
greatone10 | Posted 10/27/2008 5:10:00 AM | message detail
Alucard couldn't even have the dignity of having the lead when the ASV hit.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2008 5:18:52 AM | message detail
Looks like Alucard survived Pikachu's attacks and is starting to rebuild his lead. This is going to be brutal once the ASV hits.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 129/184 Today's Match: Pikachu > Alucard
satai_delenn | Posted 10/27/2008 5:19:52 AM | message detail
Augh, Alucard, your night vote was supposed to be better than that. v_v
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Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/27/2008 5:43:20 AM | message detail
Wow, looks like Pikachu's going to beat Alucard even with Captain Falcon in the poll. It's looking like Ike hurt Pikachu more than Falcon did (or he split Pikachu more evenly, somehow).

...And I just realized it's Crono/L-Block/Pikachu/Alucard in the sprite round.

...I really hate this contest. First it makes me root for The Dog, and now it's going to make me root for Pikachu to pull off another sprite round miracle!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
red sox 777 | Posted 10/27/2008 5:48:49 AM | message detail
Not looking good for Alucard today....looking at last round, Ike's ASV was a lot stronger than Pikachu's, but if Alucard is barely ahead now, it won't matter.
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/27/2008 5:58:06 AM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Crono | Ammy | L-Block | Ryu
EBV | 30.85% | 15.06% | 29.25% | 24.85% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 32.49% | 15.10% | 29.07% | 23.34% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 32.66% | 15.92% | 27.40% | 24.02% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 30.41% | 17.97% | 27.18% | 24.44% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 31.64% | 16.89% | 28.25% | 23.21% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 31.99% | 16.11% | 27.74% | 24.15% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 34.79% | 15.34% | 26.55% | 25.79% | (22:00-24:00)

Man, what happened to L-Block's board vote and Power Hour? Crono had it beat from the start. This might be the most impressive performance Crono has had in a couple of years. He dropped a little bit in the early morning, but other than that, he held up really well with the day vote. Matter of fact, Crono, L-Block, and Ryu all held up rather well with the day vote. I guess when your only day vote competition is Amaterasu, everything turns out to be a wash! Pikachu's gonna have fun with Crono, L-Block, and Alucard next round.

Yesterday's stats:

Crono – 50.00%
L-Block – 46.37%
Ryu – 42.63%
Amaterasu – 33.71%

Division 4, Top Half

Crono – 50.00%
L-Block – 46.37%
Ryu – 42.63%
Meta Knight – 35.56%
Amaterasu – 33.71%
The Dog – 26.17%
Frank West – 23.79%
Kaim Argonar – 13.51%

I adjusted Frank and Kaim off of Ammy's new value, which is about 1.5% lower than what she got last round. Not a huge difference, but I figure she might have done better last round due to the OFaSPF (Obvious First and Second Place Factor) and NNUF (Noble Nine Underperformance Factor). Still, Ammy does rather well, not that far from Meta Knight. I adjusted L-Block's fourpack off of Ryu here since he's (obviously) more reliable than the Block.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/27/2008 6:05:19 AM | message detail
And it still looks like Ryu is good for 40% on a Noble Niner!

By the way, for everyone still saying Pikachu gets anti-voted, characters who have board votes like that don't tell me they're hated. Seriously, Pika's board vote is crazy. His status has changed a lot since 2003. Not takin' him over Knuckles (like some were discussing last topic), but he wouldn't be too far off.

And EC must have forgotten the turd DK laid last round if he still takes DK > Fox!

Also saw someone (think it was KH) expecting Freeman to beat Bacondorf next round. Luigi was barely able to do it with the most recognizable sprite in the world. I doubt Gordon does it. Sure, Samus leeching and all, but still...Who knows? Maybe he will. I'd love to have a good laugh at Ganondorf!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/27/2008 6:08:22 AM | message detail
Part of Chief and Pika's strength in 4-ways is the reduced effect of anti-votes.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
H__RR____H | Posted 10/27/2008 6:08:28 AM | message detail
Man, Ammy really did do well. If you took away the majority of the MK-votes that were solely to thwart L-Block, that would put MK and Ammy even closer. Same goes for Ryu too, actually...very good showing.

I'll ask this four-way match again since it got overlooked last time:


Amaterasu
Fox McCloud
Gordon Freeman
Sub-Zero
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/27/2008 6:11:51 AM | message detail
Heh, we actually do have trends for Cloud/Pikachu! Somehow Pikachu won the first night vote against Cloud....

http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/distribution.html
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Crono's quest to kick L-Block out of this contest:
Round 3: Crono vs. L-Block vs. Pikachu vs. Alucard
H__RR____H | Posted 10/27/2008 6:12:43 AM | message detail
Gordon impressed last round and I wouldn't expect Bacondorf to hold up too well to Samus (last year would suggest Bacondorf could lose up to 4% on Samus in the sprite round since that's what he lost on Luigi), especially with diverse and respectable alternatives like Vincent and Gordon. I figure Gordon's not going to outdo Frog by ~5%, but I wouldn't count on Ganon doing as well next round either...

...it'd be REALLY fun to watch that "upset" happen though. GFNW.....
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Lobby Hero
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/27/2008 6:13:17 AM | message detail
Sub-Zero > Fox

Subby beat Gordon cleanly last time. Don't see any reason for that to change. Fox is a few steps above Falco, looks like, and Ammy is just a little out of their leagues, I think. She'd do well, but I can't see her winning.

Part of Chief and Pika's strength in 4-ways is the reduced effect of anti-votes.

That's what we've said, but there's no way to prove that since we haven't seen Pikachu since 2003. MC looks more normal than last year, that's for sure.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
H__RR____H | Posted 10/27/2008 6:16:29 AM | message detail
...actually, comparing Bacondorf's non-Nintendo opponents between last year's R3 and this year's R3, who is the tougher duo: Yuna/MC or Vincent/Gordon?
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Lobby Hero
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/27/2008 6:16:59 AM | message detail
Man, Cloud's board vote is still pathetic, and his day vote is still awesome. It's bad when Pikachu can beat Cloud with the board vote.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/27/2008 6:18:02 AM | message detail
I'd take Yuna over Gordon, and last year...Vinny and MC are pretty close, I'd imagine. It's a wash, basically. Samus being there makes the pack much stronger though overall.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2008 6:25:51 AM | message detail
Damn, looks like Pikachu will have to wait until the ASV to make his move. Also I had Ike coming into this match and I still had Pikachu winning, what was I thinking? At least Arthas winning saved me a net worth of 2 points.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 129/184 Today's Match: Pikachu > Alucard
H__RR____H | Posted 10/27/2008 6:36:43 AM | message detail
Oh, not arguing that about Samus, just trying to compare how people looking for alternatives outside of Nintendo may go for Bacondorf. Turns out they're pretty similar to last year though; Yuna/MC and Vincent/Gordon couldn't be too far off, and Yuna/Vincent are big-name FF-characters while Gordon/MC are big-name FPS-characters. It's all up to Samus to see how bad she wants to hurt him next round, I guess.
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Lobby Hero
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Jose Escamilla | Posted 10/27/2008 6:37:29 AM | message detail
You know it's a crazy contest when you're actually rooting for Pikachu next round

Sprite pic Pikachu to take out L-Block gogogogo

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H__RR____H | Posted 10/27/2008 6:48:52 AM | message detail
I would erupt with mixed feelings if Pikachu beat L-Block...ultimately good feelings, but still very mixed!
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Lobby Hero
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2008 7:09:09 AM | message detail
We seem to all be forgetting that Crono will be there and will be getting his sprite.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 129/184 Today's Match: Pikachu > Alucard
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/27/2008 7:13:47 AM | message detail
Time | Crono | Ammy | L-Block | Ryu
EBV | 30.85% | 15.06% | 29.25% | 24.85% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 32.49% | 15.10% | 29.07% | 23.34% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 32.66% | 15.92% | 27.40% | 24.02% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 30.41% | 17.97% | 27.18% | 24.44% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 31.64% | 16.89% | 28.25% | 23.21% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 31.99% | 16.11% | 27.74% | 24.15% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 34.79% | 15.34% | 26.55% | 25.79% | (22:00-24:00)


Wow, Crono and Ryu didn't drop at all during the day. Amastasersu is the only one there with an actual day vote.

Hilarious
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
jkmill550 | Posted 10/27/2008 7:14:02 AM | message detail
Replace Alucard with someone like Nathan or Lucas next round and I'll entertain the possibility of the block losing.
marcocat | Posted 10/27/2008 7:15:56 AM | message detail
Falcon FTW
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2008 7:18:00 AM | message detail
Here's my attempt to explain the results.

Ike LFF Pikachu more than Falcon and likewise Pikachu is SFF Falcon more than Ike. This however makes Falcon stronger than Ike, which could be true given his performance last round and Alucard's performance this round.

This gives me hope that Mario won't have a problem defeating MMX next round.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 129/184 Today's Match: Pikachu > Alucard
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/27/2008 7:24:31 AM | message detail
WILL YOU PEOPLE QUIT USING 2 ACRONYMS FOR THE SAME DAMN THING!? ALL IT DOES IS CONFUSE PEOPLE!
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/27/2008 7:25:49 AM | message detail
All this means is that Ike is stronger than Falcon, and thus hurts Pikachu more. Arthas for some inexplicable reason gets most of his strength from WoW, and the 10 year old WoW drones have never played Warcraft 3.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2008 7:32:50 AM | message detail
WILL YOU PEOPLE QUIT USING 2 ACRONYMS FOR THE SAME DAMN THING!? ALL IT DOES IS CONFUSE PEOPLE!

They're very different, one is how much overlap they have and the other is which character they favour disproportionally.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 129/184 Today's Match: Pikachu > Alucard
Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2008 7:42:12 AM | message detail
man i hope the term LFF dies out like votals did

Pikachu cut down Alucard's lead quickly with the morning vote. Looks like Alucard is back to work now.

Still, I'm not seeing how he survives the ASV if the morning vote helped Pikachu that much.
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Moltar Status: augh
Alucard/Falcon/Pikachu/Arthas - Bracket: Pikachu > Alucard - Vote: Falcon (129/184)
BDawg | Posted 10/27/2008 7:49:19 AM | message detail
I'm impressed Alucard has even held on this long considering that puny lead he built overnight. Also, I guess this is a reminder Blizzard fans still care more about the games than the characters (lollore). Well, at least Arthas isn't hanging out with Kerrigan.
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Should I start running now?
charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2008 7:49:39 AM | message detail
Well if we ever get back to one on one there will be no use for LFF.

It seems like Alucard is doing better here than he did at night, though even if Alucard doubled his highest lead I'd still be surprised if Pikachu doesn't win.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 129/184 Today's Match: Pikachu > Alucard
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