GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 609
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2008 6:39:46 PM | message detail |
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No clue what happens tomorrow. Falco looks the best going in and I'm
predicting he wins, but for some reason I have a feeling that Gordon is
going to steal the win. I have Scorps in my bracket, but I lost all confidence in him between his crap R1 performance and his crap pic. BTW - Crew Guest Sign-ups for the rest of Round 2 are open. If you haven't done a Guest analysis yet, now is your chance to get in! http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=46155333 --- Moltar Status: augh Samus/Nightmare/Ganondorf/Frog - Bracket: Samus > Ganondorf - Vote: Ganondorf (113/160) |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/24/2008 6:40:21 PM | message detail |
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KamikazePotato (#049) I don't think its possible, its obvious. Both are very well respected single player FPS, and many people call Bioshock the best single player FPS since Half Life 2. Their fanbases overlap alot. Without Big daddy there taking up 19%, I think Gordon would have beaten Scorpy by a couple percentage. --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2008 6:40:31 PM | message detail |
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No, those are calculated as x-stats, so Mario wins with 52.17%. It's
about 1.5% lower than what he got in 2005, which is probably too low
for Mario, but in light of the Deboost this year and how good Nintendo
was in 2005, it's really not that out there. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 118/164 --- T-354 (89 way) Bracket: Samus > Frog --- Vote: Frog |
| __hiei__ | Posted 10/24/2008 6:42:19 PM | message detail |
| after CTDS it might be possible (who knows,maybe Crono even goes up ABOVE Mario again) |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 6:42:34 PM | message detail |
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Match 3 Axel Steel - Hey guys, Guitar Hero is the most popular series ever! Seriously though, Axel dropped an atomic bomb here, and for a guy whose expectations were pretty low to begin with (come on, all you had to do was beat Edgeworth and maybe beat Midna), that's something. Grade: F Cloud Strife - Cloud had a fourpack that was undoubtedly weaker than Link's, and he couldn't capitalize on it. He came up just short of 60%, which doesn't make much sense since he got over 60% on Jill and Ocelot last year (though maybe Midgar Zolom being there might have helped boost Cloud a little bit). Either way, there's no doubt Cloud should have done better. Grade: C Midna - After being one of the biggest busts of the contest last year (if not THE biggest), the expectations for Midna were low. Perhaps that's why she seemed impressive. She avoided the tripling from Cloud, which seems to indicate that she's a lower midcarder, which isn't too shabby, I suppose. She was never in danger of losing second place and nearly tripled Axel Steel. Grade: B Miles Edgeworth - Hey, at least he didn't lose to Bidoof this year, and he still stayed out of last place! Seriously, the guy's been paired up with the two strongest characters (outside of L-Block, I guess) in the contest both years. What else is he supposed to do? You're next, Sephiroth! Grade: C- --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| ZFS | Posted 10/24/2008 6:43:26 PM | message detail |
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(who knows,maybe Crono even goes up ABOVE Mario again) I wouldn't count on this happening. I'd still expect to see an easy Mario win post-CTDS. --- try to imagine a thing called a B button |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 6:44:01 PM | message detail |
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Mario couldn't break 54% on Crono in 2005, arguably his strongest year, when Nintendo dominated everything You have to remember that Crono has dropped off quite a bit himself. That was the year he got 55% on Vincent Valentine, and now we're wondering if he can even beat the guy at all anymore. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 6:52:05 PM | message detail |
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Match 4 Mewtwo - After getting stuck in a triple LFF pack with Bowser last year (and still managing to do very well), people were anxious to see what Mewtwo could do this year. Suffice it to say, he didn't disappoint. He scored over 40% in a fourpack that was basically Nintendo and Pac-Man (who could be debated to be semi-Nintendo, I guess). Kinda reminds me of what Fox did last year. Mewtwo's in a great spot to make a long run into the contest. Grade: A Ness - I don't trust this guy's ability to resist SFF from anyone on the Nintendo pecking order anymore. Seriously, it can't be just the fact that he's primarily Smash because Marth has handled SFF way better than this, and he doesn't even really have a secondary game to fall back on. Ness finished way closer to Travis Touchdown than he did to Pac-Man, which ain't good. Grade: F Pac-Man - Seriously, who doesn't root for Pac-Man to do well? There's just something feel-good about him winning a match (see Ocelot/Pac-Man 2005, even though nearly everyone on the board had Ocelot winning, no one was really angry that Pac-Man was winning). He did pretty well, too. He got a quarter of the vote and left Ness in the dust. *thumbs up* Grade: B+ Travis Touchdown - Most people had a hard time seeing Travis Touchdown break 10%, so getting nearly 15% is pretty impressive. It could be a testament to how weak this fourpack is though. We'll see. Either way, he does about as well as you can reasonably expect. Grade: C STAR OF DIVISION 6: Squall Leonhart (...and Mewtwo, I guess) TURDS OF DIVISION 6: Axel Steel and Ness --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2008 6:53:02 PM | message detail |
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I'm not so sure that Crono has dropped much, mostly because the format
has made it really difficult to get accurate reads on characters. His
2006 match against Bowser was quite impressive, and I would argue has
more predictive value in predicting Mario vs. Crono than the Auron
match or the Sonic match. Keeping the Mario/Bowser proportion from 2003
gives Mario 52% or so against Crono in 2006. Using the Mario/Bowser
proportion through Snake in 2005 is even better for Crono (lol sprite
Snake), giving Mario under 51%. Using the Mario/Bowser proportion
through Sephiroth 2005 gives Crono and easy win. Yes, I recognize that all of the proportions overrate Bowser's actual standing relative to Mario as of the Crono/Bowser match. But given the Deboost this year, and Mario's very disappointing performance yesterday, I don't think Mario/Crono would go too differently from their 2005 match right now. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 118/164 --- T-354 (89 way) Bracket: Samus > Frog --- Vote: Frog |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/24/2008 6:53:04 PM | message detail |
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Well Marth is a popular character in Smash Bros, but nobody really cares about Ness in it. --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 6:54:55 PM | message detail |
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Heh, looks like Frog is determined not to let Ganondorf's lead over him
surpass his lead over Nightmare. He just cut him, and he's gaining big
on Nightmare again. Yep, second night vote's starting to kick in. Looks like Frog might hang on here, after all. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 6:56:27 PM | message detail |
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Keeping Mario and Bowser proportional is a bad idea. Mario's boosted lots since 2003, and Bowser's looked like crap since 2005. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2008 6:56:42 PM | message detail |
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As for Vincent: Vincent has boosted since 2005 thanks to Dirge of
Cerberus. That I think is as large a cause, or a larger cause, of the
gap between Crono and Vincent closing as Crono dropping is. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 118/164 --- T-354 (89 way) Bracket: Samus > Frog --- Vote: Frog |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2008 6:57:44 PM | message detail |
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so close to making a correct gutsy call! --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 6:59:44 PM | message detail |
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Vincent's probably gotten stronger, but not by a whole, whole lot. Even in 2006, Vincent was still a little behind Crono. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2008 7:03:05 PM | message detail |
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Speaking of Dirge of Ceberus, it reminds me of something. Has Shadow
the Hedgehog been the only case of character getting a major game like
that and dropping because of it? I think even Dante stayed the same
after DMC2. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2008 7:24:23 PM | message detail |
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It's very hard to tell from last year's results who would win a
Crono/Vincent match. Crono needed less than 51% of Link/Zero votes to
reverse that result. My own theory about the CT fanbase is that CT fans tend to be fans of a lot of other games, but the reverse is not true because of CT's low exposure/playership. CT does as well as it does by absolutely dominating the shared fanbase, because it can't expect to have more unshared fanbase in a match. Thus, in 1v1s, Crono would do well against characters with whom he has a lot of overlap: Old Square most of all, then Old Nintendo, then New Square (with a possible switch in order of Old Nintendo and New Square). If you look at CT's history, its characters have always done very very well against fellow SNES characters: Mario/Crono 1-4, Crono/Link, Crono/Megaman, Crono/Bowser, Magus/Ganon, Magus/Link. Sonic characters are among the worst possible opponents for CT characters, because they overlap fairly little, and Sonic characters will easily win the apathy vote. In 4-ways, however, overlap is no longer a good thing, because all overlap hurts a character compared to another character with an independent fanbase. CT fans being fans of so many other things becomes a big liability with 3 other options in the poll, one that is not outweighed by the fanbase's loyalty. Independence of fanbase is a very well established route to victory in this format; loyalty of fanbase has failed over and over again to do anything. Returning then to Link/Crono/Vincent/Zero, I believe there is significant Link/Crono overlap. They share the SNES, and I can't imagine why someone who has played and liked both CT and Zelda games would like one character and not the other. They are very similar characters. Further, both Link and Vincent brought some relatively independent fans with them to this match: Link because he probably has a good deal of the site who will vote him over anything, and Vincent because 24% of the site has FFVII as their favorite game. And again, Crono doesn't need significant overlap with Link to beat Vincent: 51% will do. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 118/164 --- T-354 (89 way) Bracket: Samus > Frog --- Vote: Frog |
| Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/24/2008 8:01:23 PM | message detail |
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Who here is kind of impressed with Nightmare? 15% out of a pretty strong foursome isn't too shabby at all IMO --- The Straight Up G The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/24/2008 8:07:21 PM | message detail |
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Match XXXVIII: Vincent Valentine vs. Falco Lombardi vs. Scorpion vs. Gordon Freeman Last Round: Vincent Valentine – 45.67% Falco Lombardi – 26.82% GlaDOS – 20.00% Wander – 7.51% Vincent shows why he is considered to be one of the strongest characters of the bracket by smashing his opponents and almost getting as high as Mario against Wander. Falco also impressed by actually keeping up with Vincent and showed that he may not be so far off against Fox. Also for a character with no name and picture recognisability GlaDOS did really well for herself and if Still Alive was being played in the background she would have totally made to next round. For the second year in a row Wander stank up the contest, do we really need to see him again? Scorpion – 30.11% Gordon Freeman – 28.47% Balthier Bunansa – 22.45% Big Daddy – 18.97% Freeman was actually in the lead for a while and even when Scorpion took the lead it wasn’t until the ASV that he was able to pull away. I guess we now know which Mortal Kombat character is the favourite. Also after flopping hard last year Balthier was able to redeem himself by putting up a respectable performance and even Big Daddy was able to have a good performance. Analysis: With a nice break today we have another close match at our door steps. While first has been decided the other three characters will be fighting for second. We could potentially have a close three-way match on our hands and those types of matches are the ones I love. Vincent should have no problem getting first in this poll. The only thing that people will be watching for is to see whether or not Vincent has enough strength to take down a LFF Samus. Vincent’s opponents are pretty similar in total strength as Samus’ opponents so getting a similar percent will put him in a good position though that will be a tall order for Vincent to fill. Of course if Falco comes in second his performance barring a flop would be moot. Before the first round matches Scorpion was the heavy favourite to take second in this match, but with the performances of Freeman and Falco this match is not even close to being a lock. We Freeman’s performance against Sub-Zero I was expecting Freeman to do the same to Scorpion, but even then that was a good performance. Despite the picture I think Scorpion should be the favourite going into the match. For those who think the picture will make a significant difference Freeman will be the first to capitalize on that. The guy led against Scorpion for a good portion of the match and if the picture does matter we could see Freeman lead for the entire day. Personally I don’t think the picture will matter this is not Solid **** or Zero Suit Samus he’s not that unrecognizable. If anything Freeman will cancel everything because you don’t see the Half-Life symbol. Falco wasn’t given much of a chance until he did well enough against Vincent to put him in the competition. Falco is pretty favourable in Melee and is often compared to Fox in the Star Fox series; I would take Fox as the winner of the two in a heartbeat. I’d expect Falco to fold against any Nintendo character, though he won’t be seeing one until next round if he makes it and would then cause the Vincent > Samus train to get rolling. Vincent will take first easily and while I still think Scorpion is going to take second if this becomes a three-way nail biter then I will be happy no matter who wins. We’ll probably see Falco lead with the board vote and power hour then Freeman leads at night while Scorpion catches up during the day. Even though I’m apathetic to the characters in this match I’m still getting hyped for it. charmander6000’s Bracket: Vincent > Scorpion charmander6000’s Prediction: Vincent – 37.38%, Scorpion – 21.63%, Gordon – 20.85%, Falco – 20.14% --- Character Battle 2008: Points 113/160 Today's Match: Samus > Ganondorf |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/24/2008 8:07:46 PM | message detail |
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Masato_Tanaka (#068) His xstats last year show him as stronger then Frog, though. --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/24/2008 8:09:28 PM | message detail |
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If anything Freeman will cancel everything because you don’t see the Half-Life symbol. ...The Half Life Symbol is in his picture --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/24/2008 8:13:34 PM | message detail |
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...The Half Life Symbol is in his picture *looks at picture again* I missed the A. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 113/160 Today's Match: Samus > Ganondorf |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/24/2008 8:15:17 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, its not much, but better then nothing. --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/24/2008 8:19:26 PM | message detail |
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Ganondorf's lead over Frog will soon pass Frog's lead over Nightmare. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 113/160 Today's Match: Samus > Ganondorf |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2008 8:20:31 PM | message detail |
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Wow, the gap is down to 7....come on Frog second night vote! --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 118/164 --- T-354 (89 way) Bracket: Samus > Frog --- Vote: Frog |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/24/2008 8:22:21 PM | message detail |
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Ganon finally leads, told you Frog will have more problems with Nightmare than Ganondorf. >_> --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 113/160 Today's Match: Samus > Ganondorf |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2008 8:23:54 PM | message detail |
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aww yeah suck it Leonhart --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| BagFries | Posted 10/24/2008 8:25:53 PM | message detail |
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yess Samus at 67% on Frog. beast --- eat me |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2008 8:26:40 PM | message detail |
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dammit time to alt then --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2008 8:31:02 PM | message detail |
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Division 3: Round 2 - Match 38 – Vincent Valentine vs. Falco Lombardi vs. Scorpion vs. Gordon Freeman Moltar’s Analysis Vincent Round 1 - 45.67% vs. Falco, GlaDOS andWander Vincent puts up decent numbers Falco Round 1 - 26.82% vs. Vincent, GlaDOS andWander Falco looks to have some good strength Scorpion Round 1 - 30.11% vs. Gordon, Balthier and Big Daddy Scorps was in a bit more danger than we figured Gordon Round 1 - 28.47% vs. Scorpion, Balthier and Big Daddy Gordon almost had it, but the day vote killed him. This match got a whole lot harder to call after Round 1. Vincent taking first here is the only thing I’m sure about. He’s still the strongest one in this group by far. The battle for second is crazy though. Falco looked good in his match with Vincent. When you take out GlaDOS’s and Wander’s votes, Falco got 37% on Vincent. And in case you’ve forgotten, Vincent is one of the strongest characters in this bracket. Scorpion and Gordon being thrown into the mix doesn’t hurt him too much, as he’ll still get the Nintendo vote. Scorpion looked very unimpressive in his match though, needing the morning and after-school votes to pull away from Gordon Freeman of all characters. Plus, the guy barely broke 30% on a group composed of Gordon Freeman, Flopthier, and Big Daddy. I mean…that’s just bad. Lastly, there’s Gordon. If you thought Big Daddy was holding him down for whatever reason, well, now he isn’t. Gordon was the one who looked good last round in his match, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does snatch second place. So uh…I’m going to guess Falco takes second here again. Honestly I don’t have a clue what happens here. Going into the match, Falco looks the most impressive, followed by Gordon, then Scorpion. Plus, look at Scorps pic. what the hell is that Moltar’s Bracket Says: Vincent > Scorpion Moltar’s Prediction is: Vincent: 38% - Falco: 22% - Gordon: 21% - Scorpion: 19% Heroic Mario’s Analysis Before round 1, I would have expected Scorpion to take second here, but after seeing Falco put up 27% on Vincent and easily advance over GlaDOS, I like the bird to advance with relatively little problem. Coming into the contest, I expected Falco to be a weaker Fox, who I had some doubts about since his one big match last year was all Nintendo, but not anymore. Both of the Star Fox guys impressed me in round 1 -- they've got real strength. As far as Gordon and Scorpion go, I think they'll both keep this kinda competitive, especially with one another, but not to the point of giving Falco a real scare. The only thing that makes me think otherwise is how well Gordon did last round. He came within 2% of Scorpion with the very real possibility of Big Daddy holding him back. BioShock and Half-Life are very similar games, and it wouldn't surprise me if Gordon does a fair bit with Big Daddy gone -- that's the big reason I like Gordon to outdo Scorpion here. But I don't think it'll be enough to top Falco. Nintendo hasn't done all that well this year, but with him being the lone Nintendo representative he's bound to benefit to some extent in a match full of 'badass' types. Add to that his round 1 performance and a good pic (lol scorpion), and I think he's the one to go with here. Should be a good match. C'mon Falco Prediction: Vincent - 36% ; Falco - 24% ; Gordon Freeman - 21% ; Scorpion - 19% Vote: Vincent |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2008 8:31:13 PM | message detail |
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Yoblazer’s Analysis Quick one tonight, gents (I mean it this time!). Vincent Valentine, Falco Lombardi, Scorpion, and Gordon Freeman are ready to dance. Who woos the ladies, and who ends up looking as clumsy and dimwitted as the guy writing this analysis? I might just have the answer. wait no Even for a dunderhead, knowing that Vinnie V. will win this match isn't hard. The guy can hang with the lower dredges of the Noble 9, and as such should have no trouble disposing of three midcarders. The hard part here is trying to reason who comes in second, and honestly, fine arguments can be made for all three competitors. Who am I going with? I'm going with my bracket, and that means going with Falco. He was a longshot before the contest starting, but I think most people will admit that Falco looks much better now. He did a great job against Vincent in the first round, and the way that Gordon and Scorpion were nearly equal in their own match makes things look even rosier for him, in my opinion. The fact that he's the only Nintendo option and stands out against three opponents who will generally be splitting appeal and fanbase votes (more than they will be with Falco, anyway) is another plus. He's got a lot going for him, he actually seems to get some of the Smash faithful to give a crap, and he's in pretty favorable conditions, so I think that'll be just enough to eek one out over Gordon. I expect Scorpion to finish last, as I get the feeling Vincent will hurt him most. Also, bad picture. Vincent Valentine - 38% Falco Lombardi - 22% Scorpion - 19% Gordon - 21% Lopen’s Analysis Well, this could have potentially anyone that isn't Vincent coming in second. That being said, I really don't like Scorpion's chances. Squeaking by Gordon Freeman, when he's proven to have a more devoted fanbase, doesn't speak well for your chances to get through the next round. Not to mention Scorpion looks like... what the **** is that picture. Coffee Ninja, I will have your head... I will mount it on the wall next to Cyko "Bathtowel Kefka" Atom. So, yeah. See ya later, Scorpion. That picture combined with last round's failure to beatdown Gordon Freeman is enough to convince me you're done. He probably won't totally fold either... he held up pretty well last year. But even so, the real match here is between Falco and Gordon Freeman. Ultimately, though, I think I have to go with Gordon. Two reasons, really. Firstly, I look at his match last year in R2... Sonic, Sub-Zero, and Duke. I'm thinkin to myself that that four pack was at least on par with this one, probably a wee bit stronger. He got 19% on that. The other reason, Falco's R1 performance wasn't really that strong... Falco got 26% on Vincent, GlaDOS, and Wander. Do I think that Falco's going to drop a lot with GlaDOS being replaced with a stronger GFNW, and Wander being replaced with a RIDICULOUSLY stronger Scorpion? Absolutely. Falco probably barely scrapes by 20% here. ... huh? Gordon ~ 20, Falco ~ 20... Maybe Scorpion has a chance after all...? If Vincent doesn't hit over 40 this time... wow. I mean, I suppose Scorpion SHOULD hit around that number as well, based on last year's performances... but I really don't like that he didn't dominate Gordon Freeman. Total toss-up at this point, but I guess the real kicker here is that Gordon Freeman appeals to the most different fanbase, here. Scorpion is a ruthless badass, Falco is a jackass badass, Vincent is a silent badass. Gordon. Gordon is a physicist. I certainly think things like the Doppler Effect or Hellmann–Feynman theorem are hardcore, the voters might not. Lopen's prediction: Vincent – 37.36% Gordon Freeman – 21.94% Scorpion – 21.66% Falco – 20.04% Transience’s Analysis today looks to be a great match -- four guys, four unique fanbases, three guys with good reasons to win. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2008 8:32:10 PM | message detail |
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Vincent's got first here. his percentage will be sorta interesting
since we're going to be comparing him to Samus. Vincent/Crono looks
dead, but Ganondorf anchoring Samus could give him a good shot. plus,
he didn't look so great last round, but that's not too clear since
Falco is an unknown. today should be a better read, and he'll probably
get near Samus's percentage. now for these other three. I think these guys are all going to be very close and am not sure even who to pick. we've got Falco, a Nintendo guy that impressed (!) and looked about equivalent to Fox. we've got an Orange Box-boosted Freeman who led Scorpion for hours before dying in the day. and we've got Scorpion, a proven guy who disappointed a little in round 1, but still won and shouldn't have dropped off at all. Freeman has always seemed weird. he does well against strong guys and loses to weak ones. that would seem to say that he'd overperform in a match like this where 20% is good.. I hate, hate, hate trusting Freeman in a match like this though. it reminds me of Duke/Gordon last year, where Freeman seemed like he had it and Duke used his great night vote to bury Gordon. Falco.. if he's as good as Fox, he's probably as good as Scorpion, maybe a little bit better. I'm not sure if he is though and I think he kinda overperformed in round 1 - that was Vincent and two things that were really unknown to a lot of people. I don't think Falco's as good as he looked. plus, I don't like picking something Nintendo this year. just feels wrong. lastly there's Scorpion, a guy who rocked Midna and Frog last year and did really well against Samus and Yoshi. sure, there was a fanbase split, but getting with 2% or so of Yoshi is pretty good. I like his fanbase to hold up the best here, and I'm sticking with him. even if his picture is awful. don't trust Nintendo Gordon Freeman Never Wins give me Scorpion transience's prediction: Vincent with 38.99% Scorpion with 22.07% Gordon Freeman with 20.23% Falco with 18.71% Ngamer’s Analysis What's this? A match that we all agree is "pretty much a foregone conclusion"... actually turns out that way? Well now, I guess there's a first time for everything! Eh, actually we did learn at least two things from this match: whenever she can avoid looking like an orange toilet, Samus is rock-solid in this format, and two, Chrono Trigger continues to give indications that it has stemmed the tide of its yearly blood loss. That being the case, Vincent needs to really show us something tonight if he's going to prove (firstly) that he'll be able to bounce Samus if full-on Nintendo LFF comes into play and (secondly) that he's still the guy to beat in his upcoming Crono rematch. Now we just need someone to knock off the Block, so that rematch will actually mean something... Can VV redeem himself from that underwhelming opening round performance? Can Falco prove that Nintendo is still a force to be reckoned with on this site, at least when it can avoid LFFing itself to death? Let's look closer. X-Stats from Round One Vincent - 35.55% (based on '07 Wander) Falco - 26.31% (based on '07 Wander) Scorpion - 20.00% (based on '07 Balthier) Gordon - 19.45% (based on '07 Balthier) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2008 8:32:25 PM | message detail |
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I see no reason for that Wander number to be unreliable; he looked
utterly pathetic last season and gave us more of the same in '08,
without any good excuse for his underperformance in either case. Which
means, whoa, was Falco ever impressive! I wouldn't think he could
possibly be THAT close to Fox in strength, but the numbers don't lie...
or DO they? Scorpion and Gordon better hope they do! There's no way
both of those guys have fallen back to the fodder line; clearly
Balthier performed a ton better this season then he did in his matches
back in '07, for whatever reason. But even adjusting them upwards some,
that's plenty of ground they'd need to make up on Falco- can they do so
without any help from LFF? That's the best thing about this match: it ought to give us a nice clear reading on all four of these characters, as we've got that rare poll between four unique fanbases where no one has any good excuse for not playing to their full potential. Let's start with Gordon... I've had this Freeman theory for a while which says that no one cares about HIM, but plenty of people do love all things Half-Life. That's why when he was just a zoomed out blob of a generic scientist in '02/'03/'04 he was beyond pathetic, but ever since he started getting these closer shots with the HL logo on his chest plainly in sight Gordon has suddenly become a decent low mid-carder. R1 was a perfect example of a "very good" Gordon pic... and just look at the result! This time around all we get is an ulta-zoomed (seriously SB, why the obsession with super closeups?) mug shot, and sorry, that tiny Half-Life style "A" isn't going to cut it. Much as I'll be rooting for the last Free Man, I can't see him finishing anywhere but last for this match. Scorpion's a real oddball. Even accounting for Gordon's HL logo help and the boost he apparently received from the Orange Box, there was just no excuse for Scorpion to not put him away in that match, especially as he was sporting a full-on killer ninja pic that should have put him way over with the casuals. If people had finally just given up on the Mortal Kombat series I'd be able to understand it, but no, Sub-Zero looked like he hadn't missed a beat just last week, hanging in there with Auron and never letting his second place finish be in doubt. And then to lower my faith even further, Scorp gets THIS picture... good gracious! I know its almost Halloween, but even so I can't see skeletons being more popular than awesome harpoon-throwing ninjas. Definitely expect a dropoff in the casual support for a character who looks this way, and if that's the case he should just be concerned with beating out Freeman to avoid the cellar, not trying to advance! As for the final two, I see Vincent taking advantage of the lessening of anti-favoriteFAQs and also the lack of a joke option in this poll (surely many voters knew he'd be fine last round and threw their vote to GlaDOS for the lulz) to put together the kind of showing we would expect from an NN-breaker. And Falco, well... call me crazy, but I still have plenty of faith in Nintendo. Yes, their inter-company SFF can be nasty, but let these characters lock horns with other independent entrants of about equal strength and I think that fans of the company will put them through to the next round 4 out of 5 times. I'm picturing a good early push for Gordon, Vincent to devour the percentage all through the overnight, and Falco to tear it up once the sun rises and put his second place finish away without too much trouble. Sooo, yup, got to pick against my bracket here and bank on Nintendo and having the best pic of the bunch in support of Falco! Converting those words to numbers and stirring the pot results in: Vincent Valentine - 37.10% Falco Lombardi - 22.38% Scorpion - 20.75% Gordon Freeman - 19.77% That looks and smells just wonderful! Ngamer Says: Vincent > Falco |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2008 8:33:15 PM | message detail |
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Guest’s Analysis - Soul LAST ROUND Vincent > Falco > GlaDOS > Wander Scorpion > Gordon > Balthier > Big Daddy The best match of round 2 is here! Why is this the best match? Two reasons. 1. Gordon 2. Freeman In my other write-ups, I told everyone how GlaDOS would beat both Vincent and Falco. I told everyone how Heavy would beat Kratos, Jill, and Ocelot. Even though I did not write an analysis, I also predicted Spy to beat Pikachu. If you were paying attention, you would realize that I got all those predictions wrong. So, why then should someone trust this write-up? Well, for good reason. I have a good feeling on this one. First things first. Vincent sucks. Second things next, this site is too pro-Japanese things, so Vincent will win here. Sad, but true. The interesting match will be between the other three competitors here. Falco Lombardi, also known as GOD IF GOD WAS AN ARWING PILOT, shown last round. I don't remember what he got, and I'm too lazy to check, so trust me when I say he crushed all expectations of him. Reason being? He's that.damn.good. Scorpion won his fourpack. Yet no one cares about that. Everyone cares about Gordon Freeman's performance. We had people convinced Gordon would finish in fourth place. Those people were crazy. What most people had is Gordon finishing in second, but Scorpion winning pretty comfortably. That did not happen. In fact, Gordon crushed just about everyone's predictions by actually having the lead for hours. Again, if I'm wrong on that point, I apologize. Point is, Gordon really shocked people last match. Scorpion did win that fourpack though. So, why is this a fight between all three if Scorpion already proved he was stronger then Gordon? Well, simply put, Big Daddy was in the match. Now, I'm not going to start going on and on about some makeshift SFF theory. I'll leave that for Turtle. What I will say is that when people think of the best single-player FPS games, the two that immediately come to mind are Half-Life 2 and Bioshock. I'm not going to say there was significant SFF there, but I will say that the possibility of those two characters sharing a fanbase is there. So if you take Big Daddy out of the picture in the first match, I wouldn't have been surprised if Gordon won that match straight up. Who's coming in second here? Well, each character has their strong points. Scorpion being the most known the of three and has proven strength. Gordon impressing big time, and could very well be stronger then Scorpion. Falco, being the only Nintendo representative, also impressed against Vincent with no outside influences. It's anyone's ball game. For me, I'm sticking with my gut and my bias, and I'm going to pick Gordon Freeman. It's a risky move, but I would be pissed if I didn't pick him and he took the upset. Vincent - 30.74% Gordon - 24.57% Falco - 24.14% Scorpion - 20.55% Crew Consensus: Good arguments made for Gordon, Scorps and Falco to take second to Vincent's first. Majority is going with Vincent > Falco though. |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/24/2008 8:39:00 PM | message detail |
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If Falco does win here... who woulda thought Falco would make it further then Fox? --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2008 8:41:23 PM | message detail |
| Board vote is going to be interesting. We've got
Gordon Freeman, a lone Nintendo character, and a bracket favorite in a
risky situation. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2008 8:41:50 PM | message detail |
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board vote should go Falco > Gordon > Scorpion > Vincent here. then it'll do a complete 180 after an hour. yay! --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| BagFries | Posted 10/24/2008 8:58:25 PM | message detail |
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Falco bombs high teens. --- eat me |
| ZFS | Posted 10/24/2008 8:58:57 PM | message detail |
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falco beats his percentage from last round book it --- try to imagine a thing called a B button |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2008 9:00:14 PM | message detail |
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Vincent Valentine 10% 1 Falco Lombardi 50% 5 Scorpion 10% 1 Gordon Freeman 30% 3 TOTAL VOTES 10 woo nintendo --- Moltar Status: augh Vincent/Falco/Scorpion/Gordon - Bracket: Vincent > Scorpion - Vote: Falco (121/168) |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/24/2008 9:00:36 PM | message detail |
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Vincent Valentine 6.67% 1 Falco Lombardi 46.67% 7 Scorpion 13.33% 2 Gordon Freeman 33.33% 5 TOTAL VOTES 15 Falco with the board vote. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 121/168 Today's Match: Vincent > Scorpion |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2008 9:00:36 PM | message detail |
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Vincent Valentine 20% 1 Falco Lombardi 40% 2 Scorpion 0% 0 Gordon Freeman 40% 2 TOTAL VOTES 5 Vincent Valentine 26.67% 24 Falco Lombardi 26.67% 24 Scorpion 23.33% 21 Gordon Freeman 23.33% 21 TOTAL VOTES aw jeeze --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/24/2008 9:00:37 PM | message detail |
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aww yea gordon lets do this --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2008 9:00:45 PM | message detail |
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Vincent Valentine 27.27% 27 Falco Lombardi 26.26% 26 Scorpion 24.24% 24 Gordon Freeman 22.22% 22 TOTAL VOTES 99 Go Falco! --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 118/164 --- T-354 (89 way) Bracket: Samus > Frog --- Vote: Frog |
| BagFries | Posted 10/24/2008 9:01:01 PM | message detail |
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yesssss --- eat me |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2008 9:01:07 PM | message detail |
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hrm, Freeman vote vs. Power Hour vs. bracket votes I have no idea what to think here --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| ZFS | Posted 10/24/2008 9:01:14 PM | message detail |
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whoa failure --- try to imagine a thing called a B button |
| Xcarvenger | Posted 10/24/2008 9:01:17 PM | message detail |
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wow vincent with the board vote --- Kweh! Kweh!!! --> http://backloggery.com/main.php?user=xcarvenger For all your board 8 needs: www.board8.wikia.com |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/24/2008 9:01:23 PM | message detail |
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And falco is in last --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| RockMFR 5 | Posted 10/24/2008 9:01:32 PM | message detail |
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epic match delivers --- Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0 The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n. |
