GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 609
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2008 2:30:20 PM | message detail |
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zero suit samus for the sprite round ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- CB7 Score: 120/160 http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif |
| hailEC | Posted 10/24/2008 2:31:09 PM | message detail |
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solid **** whoop whoop --- all hail ec your lord and savior |
| Seginustemple | Posted 10/24/2008 2:31:25 PM | message detail |
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Hi stats topic I'm going to try and regulate myself regularize whatever --- Brawl FC: 0344-8961-0822 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2008 2:33:14 PM | message detail |
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you know a match is good when --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| hailEC | Posted 10/24/2008 2:34:09 PM | message detail |
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samus is beating cloud --- all hail ec your lord and savior |
| nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/24/2008 2:34:16 PM | message detail |
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The result is determined before Power Hour is over? --- Meebe? |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/24/2008 2:40:39 PM | message detail |
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Even the voters aren't interested. This is heading to only get 125k votes compare to 137k from yesterday. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 113/160 Today's Match: Samus > Ganondorf |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2008 2:42:25 PM | message detail |
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Remember when everyone thought pics were worth 1% variations at the most Those were the days --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2008 2:43:56 PM | message detail |
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To be fair, even though yesterday was a SFF match it contained two of
the contests' biggest heavy hitters, Zelda (who always attracts votes),
and Mudkip (jokes + rallies). Plus, it was a close match for first for
much of the day. All a recipe for high votals. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2008 2:45:13 PM | message detail |
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All the more reason to believe that yesterday had little SFF! --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2008 2:45:18 PM | message detail |
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Now what I want to know is why Marth/Duke/Altair/Lucario got 133,000 votes --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2008 2:46:01 PM | message detail |
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Always Bet On Duke (to bring in the votals) --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| hailEC | Posted 10/24/2008 2:46:25 PM | message detail |
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stuffing altair was hosed --- all hail ec your lord and savior |
| PegasusLover123 | Posted 10/24/2008 3:25:29 PM | message detail |
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Why do people think Scorpion is gonna have a problem in the upcoming
match because of that pic of his? If anything Vincent is the one who's
gonna suffer vote loss from his pic. --- BC: 0774-7368-9787 name: EDS "Casual player" so dont count me in for no item matches. |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2008 3:26:21 PM | message detail |
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what --- CB7 Score: 120/160 http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/24/2008 3:29:15 PM | message detail |
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Vincent is so far above the others that he doesn't need a match pic to
win easily, and he's at least in a recognizable form. Scorpion, on the
other hand, has a pic that's worse for him than Solid **** is for Snake. --- It has War, ExTha, and Crasty insulting each other as hedgehogs while being vaguely about your boobs. What did you expect. - Shadow The ExTha |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2008 3:30:59 PM | message detail |
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Votals are that much lower than yesterday? 3-way SNES LFF today confirmed! (that's somewhat serious) --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 118/164 --- T-354 (89 way) Bracket: Samus > Frog --- Vote: Frog |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2008 3:39:07 PM | message detail |
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Scorpion, on the other hand, has a pic that's worse for him than Solid **** is for Snake. Let's not get carried away. Scorpion is still a somewhat cool looking flaming skull. Solid **** is...Solid ****. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 4:03:36 PM | message detail |
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Hey, if no one submits the MG sprite, Bacon can't use it, and you know he's too lazy to make one himself! Now what I want to know is why Marth/Duke/Altair/Lucario got 133,000 votes Altair is a vote draw, apparently. Look at his first round match, too. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/24/2008 4:08:30 PM | message detail |
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LeonhartFour (#019) Everyone loves Altair. --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2008 4:08:40 PM | message detail |
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so is Link/Zack/Duke/Altair going to get 175,000 or something --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2008 4:10:34 PM | message detail |
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Someone's going to submit a Snake sprite. Whether through ignorance or sabotage, it'll be in Bacon's database. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/24/2008 4:11:16 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, almost half the pics seem to be from non board 8ers, so there are people who won't know any better --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 5:17:51 PM | message detail |
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DIVISION 5 GRADES AND REVIEW Match 1 Donkey Kong - Man, did this guy stink it up or what? As much as I love Tidus, no one worth anything should get beaten that badly by him. Closer to Tails than to Tidus? That's bad. Grade: F Miles "Tails" Prower - No one expected him to get anything other than last place, and he didn't disappoint. At least this is one area where Sonic Team hasn't disappointed. Tails got about the same percentage he did last year, too. Grade: F Tidus - I really was hoping Tidus was going to pull off the comeback and win. Oh well, he gave it a great fight, and it's strange that one of Tidus's best contest performances ever (Tidus/Shadow is about the only other one you could come up with, which seems to look worse as time goes by) should come in a match he doesn't even take first place in. Grade: A- Weighted Companion Cube - An anticipated debut and one that certainly didn't disappoint. It seems to have more jokey trends like L-Block did last year, being much more frontloaded, except for the fact that it made a very good recovery during the afternoon, for whatever the reason. If the Cube's got the static percentage factor goin' on, you can go ahead and book it out of this division. Grade: A --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/24/2008 5:19:16 PM | message detail |
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Leon when did you do matches 15 and 16? Like what page of the last contest stat topic? --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2008 5:20:31 PM | message detail |
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Ganon's gunning for a bigger lead than Frog has right now. let's do this --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/24/2008 5:23:04 PM | message detail |
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trannyscience (#026) Nah, I think Frog is gonna stay closer to Ganon then Nightmare once second night vote kicks in --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 5:23:17 PM | message detail |
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Match 2 Banjo - He didn't come in last place this time, and the fact that he could beat anyone with the butt ugly match picture he got has to be worth a little bit. Grade: D- Captain Olimar - If Lucario and Diddy hadn't already proven that Brawl hasn't been worth much, this might have been more surprising. As it stands, Olimar still did worse than expected. A lot of people at least thought he could beat Banjo, but he couldn't even do that. I'm ashamed I actually had Olimar advancing in my bracket for a while, even if I changed to Nero later. Grade: F Mega Man - Mega Man does about the same as last year in arguably a weaker fourpack. Okay, there's really no arguing it. This fourpack was weaker. Any of the other three in his first round fourpack last year would've smoked Banjo and Olimar, and would've had a great chance of beating Nero. Still, getting 50% is difficult in this format and the Blue Bomber did get that much, so I can't hold it against him too much. Grade: B- Nero - For the DMC equivalent of Raiden, Nero did very well. He almost outdid Banjo and Olimar combined and almost avoided the doubling from Mega Man. He had a really good morning vote, too. He might be one of those guys (like Nightmare) who looks better than he really is just due to the other two competitors being so awful. However, until further notice, a solid performance. Grade: B+ --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 5:24:23 PM | message detail |
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If you're doing 50 posts per page, then page 5. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/24/2008 5:29:45 PM | message detail |
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For the DMC equivalent of Raiden, Nero did very well. Eh I wouldn't go that far. He wasn't a whiny pretty boy nobody likes in DMC, hes actually quite badass on his own. --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 5:31:02 PM | message detail |
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Match 3 King DeDeDe - I'm not really sure how hard I should be on him and Pit. After all, they were put into a doomed scenario to begin with. Even uninhibited by LFF, they didn't have a prayer of touching Hayabusa or Zero. Really, DeDeDe did better than I expected. I didn't think he'd come that close to Pit, much less lead him for a while. Grade: D Pit - For a guy who's got nothing going for him but Brawl, Pit looks to be close to the fodder line, at least. Probably the guys who were in the original trailer have benefited the most (Meta Knight, Snake, and even Wario seem to indicate this a bit). Again, hard to grade too harshly due to the fact that he was being LFF'd, but hey, Pit and DeDeDe have great board votes! Grade: D Ryu Hayabusa - Seriously, of all of the first round upset possibilities, I never even considered Hayabusa beating Zero. I guess that match from 2005 stuck in my mind. He beat an established contest veteran going away and had a great day vote. Hayabusa did great in round 1 last year and then flopped the next match. Will he do it again this year? Won't take away how impressive he was here though. Grade: A+ Zero - Seems like Zero has fallen a lot. This was the guy who got 48% on Sonic in 2003 and was equal with Snake in 2004. The site shift has hurt Mega Man overall a bit since 2005, it seems. Still kinda hard for me to fathom how he lost to Hayabusa after he beat him so soundly a few years ago. Either way, Zero stayed close enough to leave some doubt in their second round match. Grade: C- --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 5:36:50 PM | message detail |
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Match 4 Albert Wesker - Was last year a fluke or something? 'Cause this didn't look like the guy who led Lara Croft for a while last year and stayed somewhat close to her. This looked more like Villains Contest Wesker who couldn't even get 60% on Luca Blight. He got thoroughly thumped by Vivi, who is a solid midcarder, but hardly a powerhouse. Grade: F Sackboy - Can you really fault a guy for getting 10% in a poll with Solid Snake (with whom he will one day share a system) when his game isn't even out yet? Doesn't seem fair, but still... Grade: F+ Solid Snake - Kinda ho-hum performance by Solid Snake here, but the Noble Nine in general were disappointing overall in their inability to score massive blowouts on pretty weak fourpacks. Vivi can only hinder Snake so much, and he didn't even double him (though he came close). Doubt he's in any serious danger from Mega Man or anything like that, but Snake needed to be more dominant to show he's ready to take on Mario and Samus. He won the day vote though, which is nice! Grade: B Vivi Orunitia - The little black mage did great here, beating Wesker and Sackboy combined while avoiding the doubling from Solid Snake. Over 25% of the vote is great, and Vivi actually may have made himself the favorite in round 2, when he had been the underdog before. Grade: A+ STARS OF DIVISION 5: Ryu Hayabusa and Vivi Orunitia TURD OF DIVISION 5: Donkey Kong --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/24/2008 5:51:07 PM | message detail |
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--- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2008 6:20:06 PM | message detail |
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Frog is determined to hold onto 20% here. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 118/164 --- T-354 (89 way) Bracket: Samus > Frog --- Vote: Frog |
| PegasusLover123 | Posted 10/24/2008 6:25:20 PM | message detail |
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nearly 5k vote difference now, there's no possible way for Frog to
catch Ganondorf now even with mass stuffing and rallying. It seems they
gave up on him already too. As for tomorrow's match do you think Gordon will take 2nd with Vincent in first? Or will Falco pull some sort of miracle and snatch 2nd from him? --- BC: 0774-7368-9787 name: EDS "Casual player" so dont count me in for no item matches. |
| NotTerrafire | Posted 10/24/2008 6:25:58 PM | message detail |
| I much preferred it when Vivi's surname was 'Ornitier'. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2008 6:26:34 PM | message detail |
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I've seen like 3 different spellings of Vivi's last name. I still don't know which one is correct. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2008 6:29:03 PM | message detail |
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Falco should be the favorite for 2nd tomorrow. What do people here
think Samus/Mario/Crono/Vincent get on each other in 1v1s, indirectly?
After today, I'll guess: Samus: 50.00% Mario: 46.00% Crono: 44.00% Vincent: 42.00% --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 118/164 --- T-354 (89 way) Bracket: Samus > Frog --- Vote: Frog |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/24/2008 6:30:18 PM | message detail |
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I'm thinking Gordon is winning tomorrow. This is just an assumption,
but I assume he has the most loyal fanbase, and Vincent should be
taking quite a few votes from the other two. --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 6:30:26 PM | message detail |
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DIVISION 6 GRADES AND REVIEW Match 1 Chris Redfield - It's pretty obvious that this isn't the same guy who lost to Pyramid Head last year. I don't know if it's RE5 hype or what, but Resident Evil as a whole is on the way up. Sure, Chris didn't advance (or even come that close), but he sure looked a heck of a lot better than he did last year. Grade: B+ Fox McCloud - Our first look at Fox McCloud completely detached from SFF since 2002, and he does fairly well. He basically confirmed what we all thought all along: He's a solid midcarder. He's still out of range of upper midcard guys like Sora, but that's not too bad. He did come closer to Chris Redfield than he did to Sora though, which is kinda surprising, though not really his fault. Grade: B- Sora - He scored nearly 40% on a pretty solid fourpack and put himself in a position to advance through round 2 with Squall...again. Seriously, Bacon, take some time to think about bracket placement next year. Sora basically did what he needed to do here. Grade: B Tim - Well, he could probably beat Jade Curtiss! Grade: F --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2008 6:30:55 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and that's actually a very interesting 4-pack too: what happens? --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 118/164 --- T-354 (89 way) Bracket: Samus > Frog --- Vote: Frog |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 6:31:20 PM | message detail |
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I've seen like 3 different spellings of Vivi's last name. I still don't know which one is correct. I really don't know either, but "Orunitia" was the first one I encountered, and I'm too stubborn to change now. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 6:32:07 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and Mario being closer to Crono than Samus (even indirectly) ain't happenin' ever again. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/24/2008 6:33:02 PM | message detail |
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LeonhartFour (#043) I miss the days that Crono could put 53% up on Mario. --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| ZFS | Posted 10/24/2008 6:35:02 PM | message detail |
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I'm thinking Gordon is winning tomorrow. This is just an assumption,
but I assume he has the most loyal fanbase, and Vincent should be
taking quite a few votes from the other two. Vincent's not going to be getting the kind of percentage in this match where the more "loyal" fanbase will be a big factor. Any one can win tomorrow, but I like Falco a lot here. --- try to imagine a thing called a B button |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/24/2008 6:36:01 PM | message detail |
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Match 2 CATS - He finally got more votes than someone, and he's still got a great board vote and a good Power Hour! Hurrah! Grade: D Nathan Drake - Hey, you're the guy who lost to CATS! For that, you get... Grade: F Squall Leonhart - For some reason, I was concerned that Squall was in danger of losing to Yoshi. So much for that. He smoked the dino and did as well on him as Mega Man did on him last year. If only he weren't in the same division as Cloud...again. Argh. Grade: A++++ (Huzzah, teacher bias!) Yoshi - Pretty disappointing performance for a guy who's supposed to be a Mario fan favorite. He was never in the match, not even close. He did so poorly that he made his round 2 favorite status highly questionable. Grade: C- --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2008 6:36:20 PM | message detail |
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Why not? Mario couldn't break 54% on Crono in 2005, arguably his
strongest year, when Nintendo dominated everything. If you believe
Samus is a good deal ahead of him indirectly (she was at 56% on him in
2004, if you believe the Deboost is canceling the earlier Boost), it's
possible even before CTDS, though I'll concede I gave Crono a very
optimistic read there. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 118/164 --- T-354 (89 way) Bracket: Samus > Frog --- Vote: Frog |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/24/2008 6:36:38 PM | message detail |
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ZFS (#045) I think he's getting enough percentage for Gordon to easily overcome Scorpion, at least. Scorpy last round won cuz he was the only cool character, but Vincent will sap away a bunch of that support. Plus something nobody is really bringing up is Big Daddy. How much did Big Daddy effect Gordon last round? --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2008 6:37:14 PM | message detail |
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Scorpion can still get 2nd tomorrow, but I think he's the underdog
going in. He was close to Gordon last round, and that was with possible
Big Daddy LFF. Now he's going in with a bad pic, and Vincent is going to hurt him a little more than he'll hurt Gordon. Unfortunately, I also think Falco is the favorite. Stupid bird. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/24/2008 6:38:31 PM | message detail |
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Posted by red sox 777 #038 Falco should be the favorite for 2nd tomorrow. What do people here think Samus/Mario/Crono/Vincent get on each other in 1v1s, indirectly? After today, I'll guess: Samus: 50.00% Mario: 46.00% Crono: 44.00% Vincent: 42.00% Those mean in a Mario/Crono match Mario wins with 51.1% --- Really? |
