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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 608

Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/23/2008 3:44:39 PM | message detail
Correction: How is pic factor overrated? Need I remind you of Mario/BB/Magus/PW and BB/Kirby/Lucas/Jinjo, Smurf?
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/23/2008 3:44:52 PM | message detail
I don't get why people like the pic of Ganon. Maybe you gotta be a fan of his to like it, cuz for me, a pic of a guys forehead isn't winning him any points
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Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/23/2008 3:48:41 PM | message detail
There's exceptional cases which usually involve a Metal Gear character or the likes of Ryu Arabusha, Zero Suit Samus and the many hilarious Kefka images. But most of these revolve around recognisable issues and not how cool they look. So ok maybe on Scorpion, I can't actually remember what he usaully looks like so I'll pass on that so there's a point but things like Luigi looking badass or Mudkip looking sad really aren't going to have any significant impact.
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Smurf , The cream of Knuckles Fanboyism.
ZFS | Posted 10/23/2008 3:50:17 PM | message detail
TP Ganon is good stuff. It could have been moved up a bit, but it's not a bad pic by any means -- and it's not going to make any real difference for tomorrow.

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six bullets. more than enough to kill anything that moves.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/23/2008 3:50:44 PM | message detail
http://luca.giacobazzi.googlepages.com/mortal-kombat-deadly-alliance-scorpi.jpg/mortal-kombat-deadly-alliance-scorpi-full;init:.jpg

Thats Scorpy. I'm a big MK fan, and without the name there, even *I* wouldn't recognize him.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/23/2008 3:51:27 PM | message detail
Falco could take this the guy got 37% on Vincent, which is about what Scorpion is expected to get.

It should be a good three way fight for second and it's on Saturday so no school.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 105/152 Today's Match: Mario > Mega Man X
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/23/2008 3:52:34 PM | message detail
I figured Scorpion had no chance after he went 50/50 with Gordon for 75% of the match and then Falco impressed huge. I'm expecting Scorp to be in last.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/23/2008 3:53:13 PM | message detail
It'd be interesting if a Nintendo character surpassed expectations in this contest for once.
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Smurf , The cream of Knuckles Fanboyism.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/23/2008 3:54:21 PM | message detail

MegatokyoEd (#207)
I figured Scorpion had no chance after he went 50/50 with Gordon for 75% of the match and then Falco impressed huge. I'm expecting Scorp to be in last.



Same. Scorpy is the kinda character who can look good without other cool characters there, but put in a badass character (Vincent), and he'll lose alot of his support. I think Gordon is gonna be 2nd cuz he prolly has the most loyal fanbase of those 3
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/23/2008 4:04:59 PM | message detail
I don't see how you can't think a guy named "Mega Man X" who looks nearly identical would be any weaker.

Because several people, myself included, have avouched to saying that we'll vote for one moreso than the other. I'll vote for X over a lot more than I'll vote for the original Mega Man for. That may not be the case for the majority of people, but you can't take it for granted that it is either.

I know it's (likely) not any points, but after looking at the Oracle topic, am I the only one who has Nightmare ahead of Frog? They performed at the same level against Samus, albeit in different years. Samus has probably dropped off some since 2005, but Frog probably has as well.

I've got Nightmare ahead of Frog, and I'm surprised it's not a more popular pick. I said in the last topic that people should be more afraid of Nightmare sneaking through Samus/Ganon LFF than Frog.

As for the pics:

Do people think Samus only has one pic? Come on, variety! Everyone else looks good though. Well, not that the Samus pic is bad...just overused.

Great pic for Vincent, good pic for Falco. Scorpion is just what. I'm not sure if it'll hurt him or help him. Same thing with Gordon's pic.

Ammy and Ryu have great pics, though Ryu's text is hard to read. Crono and the Block get expected pics.

Good pics for Pikachu and Arthas (right in your face!). Pretty good pic for Alucard, and Falcon looks like he's about 65 years old.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/23/2008 4:10:20 PM | message detail
Do people think Samus only has one pic? Come on, variety! Everyone else looks good though. Well, not that the Samus pic is bad...just overused.

we need more zero suit boobage pics. I mean hell its not like its gonna hurt her much in early rounds, so why not
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/23/2008 4:23:03 PM | message detail
Continuing on with round 1 grades. These will be a little more progressive, here a little, there a little.

Division 3, Match 3

Falco Lombardi - People thought he was in danger of losing to GlaDOS, and despite how well she did, Falco did much better. He had a really strong day vote and did rather well relative to Vincent.

Grade: A

GlaDOS - For someone with as many disadvantages as GlaDOS did (Name never said in the game, nigh-unrecognizable pic, two strong characters), she did well. 20% in this fourpack is nothing to sneeze at, and though she didn't come close to beating Falco in the end, she still did about as good as you could've expected.

Grade: B+

Vincent Valentine - This guy, however, didn't do as well as we expected. Several people, myself included, thought Vincent was capable of breaking 50% on this fourpack. Perhaps we can chalk it up to Falco and GlaDOS both being stronger than we thought, but still, this was not a dominant performance.

Grade: C

Wander - (I will allot him one word of analysis for every time his name is said in Shadow of the Colossus)

...

Grade: F
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 4:24:09 PM | message detail
If Samus got ZSS, I'd take Ganondorf over her. >_>
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/23/2008 4:25:57 PM | message detail

Gaddswell (#213)
If Samus got ZSS, I'd take Ganondorf over her. >_>



why? When Tifa did so well, it was because Zero Suit Samus was a near unknown, but everyone knows her now as that from Brawl. It may weaken her a tiny bit (I don't get why though, boobs!), but still strong enough to easily dispatch of Ganon
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/23/2008 4:28:42 PM | message detail
Yay grades!

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/23/2008 4:28:59 PM | message detail
Match 4

Balthier Bunansa - After being one of the biggest flops of the contest last year, Balthier actually did fairly decently. He stayed within decent range of Scorpion and Gordon, who you'd have to think are stronger than Ada Wong. Perhaps he's grown stronger since last year?

Grade: B-

Big Daddy - Couldn't have expected too much more from the guy. Nearly got 19% in a decently strong fourpack.

Grade: C+

Gordon Freeman - The former chump of the Character Battle hung in there like a champ against Scorpion for 75% of the match. The ASV was his undoing, but he still put himself in good position to make a move for round 3. When did you think you'd ever hear anyone say that about Gordon Freeman?

Grade: A-

Scorpion - I don't think many people expected Scorpion to struggle with Gordon Freeman, and so his performance gets looked down on here. However, the end result is something similar to what many would have expected anyway. Just it would have looked better if he hadn't struggled for a long time before pulling away.

Grade: C

STAR OF DIVISION 3 - Falco Lombardi

TURD OF DIVISION 3 - KOS-MOS
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2008 4:35:14 PM | message detail
37.jpg - what the hell ganondorf, it's a cool pic but why the hell is th ebackground so dark you can barely see his face. c'mon people, and nightmare suffers the same problem

38.jpg - WHAT THE HELL scorpion, that pic does no favors for my bracket, and the others look good too

39.jpg - ryu's font is...what? other than that's it's fine

40.jpg - uhhh falcon looks pretty bad and woah arthas's face and woah pikachu's face
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Moltar Status: augh
Mario/Zelda/MMX/Mudkip - Bracket: Mario > MMX - Vote: Zelda (105/152)
charmander6000 | Posted 10/23/2008 4:37:20 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero didn't beat Freeman by that much so why are people surprised that Freeman was able to hold up against Scorpion?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 105/152 Today's Match: Mario > Mega Man X
Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 4:57:55 PM | message detail
Well, that's 3 updates for X in a row.

Too bad it won't come down to the wire though.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/23/2008 5:29:53 PM | message detail
DIVISION 4 GRADES AND REVIEW

Match 1

Amaterasu - Ammy does noticeably better against Crono this year than she did against Dante last year. I'm starting to think she'd be a good midcarder at this point since Okami has apparently gotten more popular since last year. She held up very well all day, which is indicative of someone who's not just cult.

Grade: A

Crono - People are hard on Crono because he didn't break 50% against arguably a weaker fourpack than he had last year, but things seem to be different for the Noble Nine here at GameFAQs. He held up relatively well with the day vote, which is a good thing if you're a Chrono Trigger character. Not a great performance, but not a bad one either.

Grade: C

Frank West - Not too much to say about the guy. He finished 10% behind Ammy and doubled Kaim. No one should've seriously expected him to be doing anything here anyway. Can't really criticize this performance because he did as expected.

Grade: D

Kaim Argonar - This guy bombed though. Some people who will remain unnamed* thought this loser had a shot at doing anything other than looking like absolute crap. Either way, when you can't even get 10,000 votes in a poll, you deserve nothing more than...

Grade: F
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
*cough cough, Lopen *cough cough*
Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 5:38:06 PM | message detail
Kip comeback has started
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/23/2008 5:38:38 PM | message detail
Match 2

L-Block - Did exactly what it needed to and then some to establish itself as a favorite to repeat. No worries about Joke LFF causing an upset. L-Block already looks to be in championship form and it even has legit trends this year! Beware of the Block, folks.

Grade: A

Meta Knight - A lot of people picked Meta Knight to come in second hoping he could somehow oust L-Block. Didn't happen. He still looked really good because he's facing two Mr. Consistencies (Ryu in terms of overall strength and L-Block in terms of pulling in percentage) and came within 10% of them. Meta Knight has a beastly ASV, by the way.

Grade: B

Ryu - He gave L-Block the best shot he had, but it wasn't enough. Can't fault Ryu for losing this match though. Gotta work on that day vote though, buddy!

Grade: B

The Dog - You suck, I hate you, and I hope you die. You made me feel sick for actually making me sort of root for you to LFF the Block.

Grade: F---
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/23/2008 5:39:34 PM | message detail
And whoa, those are some huge Mudkip spikes. He's hanging in there with Mario right now.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/23/2008 5:44:58 PM | message detail
with the brawl de-boost zss would lose to zack
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/23/2008 5:46:28 PM | message detail
Match 3

Alucard - He let Falcon get a little too close, but he wasn't ever in danger of losing either. I thought he had round 2 locked up, but after this performance, I'm not 100% confident. He could still somehow lose to LFF'd Pikachu, though I hope he puts that little rat away.

Grade: C-

Captain Falcon - His performance was like landing a Falcon Punch in Brawl. It's great for Falcon fans, while everyone else is left dumbfounded as to how that actually happened. This doesn't look like the same Captain Falcon I've seen for the previous two contests, but he owned face against a relatively established Nintendo character and wasn't too far off from a long-time contest vet. He showed us his moves here.

Grade: A+

Diddy Kong - Now, on the opposite side of the spectrum, we have Diddy. There were several people (myself included) who thought picking Captain Falcon to advance from this pack was the worst possible pick you could make because there was no way he was more favored than Diddy. So much for that. Even with the awesome pimp pose, Diddy got destroyed by Falcon and showed us why it took until Brawl to get him in here.

Grade: F

Kratos Aurion - I really thought Kratos could take advantage of Nintendo LFF (especially against low-tier Nintendo characters who shouldn't be that much stronger than he is), but I guess he took some SFF of his own. Either way, he had a great opportunity to advance here, and he blew it.

Grade: F
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 5:47:40 PM | message detail
In the last 4 updates, we've had Kip cut both Mario and X.

Still not enough to win an update outright though, at least.

Ouch @ 60 vote cut on Zelda though.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/23/2008 5:51:39 PM | message detail
Captain Falcon - His performance was like landing a Falcon Punch in Brawl. It's great for Falcon fans, while everyone else is left dumbfounded as to how that actually happened. This doesn't look like the same Captain Falcon I've seen for the previous two contests, but he owned face against a relatively established Nintendo character and wasn't too far off from a long-time contest vet. He showed us his moves here.

Grade: A+


I feel the same way. That was awesome.

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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/23/2008 5:52:56 PM | message detail
Match 4

Arthas Menethil - Arthas certainly proved his contest worth as he battled and fought off Ike most of the day and came out on top. He certainly did well enough to put himself in a position to beat Alucard and advance to round 3, which is better than I expected of the guy.

Grade: A

Ike - Man, you gotta stop waiting until the ASV to start doin' something, Ike! He's shown that he's one of the few Brawl characters who may have actually benefited from the game, but it still wasn't enough. Hard to say if Pikachu kept him from advancing or not, but either way, he looks to be a decent low midcarder.

Grade: B-

Pikachu - Last year's co-villain (along with L-Block) didn't do as well as many expected, but we may be able to attribute this to some LFF with Ike. It's hard to say, and it'll still be hard to say in the next ground. Pikachu was still well ahead of Arthas for first place, and he proved he can actually beat someone on the Nintendo pecking order, which is the one thing I really wanted to see from him.

Grade: B+

Spy - He did better than Heavy, so that's got to be worth something, right? It's so easy to forget this guy was even in the match. That tends to happen to characters when there's a debatable threeway race for first though.

Grade: D

STAR OF DIVISION 4 - Captain Falcon

TURD OF DIVISION 4 - Diddy Kong
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/23/2008 5:56:35 PM | message detail
Uhh...did someone alert 4chan? Because this is looking like more than just erratic spiking.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 5:57:20 PM | message detail
Anyone know the pace Kipz needs to be going at to take back 3rd?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2008 5:58:18 PM | message detail
Vincent Valentine - This guy, however, didn't do as well as we expected. Several people, myself included, thought Vincent was capable of breaking 50% on this fourpack. Perhaps we can chalk it up to Falco and GlaDOS both being stronger than we thought, but still, this was not a dominant performance.

To be fair, Crono had a way weaker fourpack and also failed to break 50%. Vincent did pretty decent for himself, considering Falco and Glados are unknown right now. We'll get a better read on Vincent this round.
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hailEC | Posted 10/23/2008 5:58:36 PM | message detail
37
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all hail ec your lord and savior
hailEC | Posted 10/23/2008 5:59:40 PM | message detail
If scorpion still manages to beat Falco despite a horrible pic will everyone stop saying he's strong plz.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/23/2008 6:00:07 PM | message detail
Hey, I gave Falco and GlaDOS some credit there. It still doesn't take away from the fact that Vincent didn't appear to do that great.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/23/2008 6:00:55 PM | message detail
...So what if Gordon beats Falco, but Falco still beats Scorpion?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
hailEC | Posted 10/23/2008 6:01:50 PM | message detail
then he still sucks. If he beat Scorpion by less than 1.5% he sucks.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/23/2008 6:03:18 PM | message detail
Looks like 4chan got bored already. Back to normal for the Mudkipz.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 7:56:12 PM | message detail
Looks like the lead between Mario / X and Zelda / Mudkip may end up close to equal after all.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/23/2008 8:00:27 PM | message detail
Hmm, seems X might get back over 30% by the time this is done
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/23/2008 8:13:50 PM | message detail
Come on X, get within 1%.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
charmander6000 | Posted 10/23/2008 8:15:07 PM | message detail
Match XXXVII: Samus Aran vs. Nightmare vs. Ganondorf vs. Frog

Last Round:

Samus Aran – 52.19%
Nightmare – 22.69%
Crash Bandicoot – 16.89%
Raz – 8.23%

Samus was one of the few characters to have broken 50% last round and though it was expected it seems like it is harder to get a good performance. Nightmare was able to pull out the same percent against Samus as he did against Snake last year though Snake broke 57%. Nightmare has been lucky twice with bracket placement and like last year his luck stops in round 2.

Ganondorf – 43.86%
Frog – 24.24%
KOS-MOS – 19.50%
Neku Sakuraba – 12.40%

Once again Ganondorf shows off why he is considered to be one of the strongest characters in the bracket by destroying his competition. Also it looks like my idea of CT characters not doing well in this format turned out to be wrong (except for Magus) Frog had no problems dispatching KOS-MOS and if LFF goes his way he could sneak into round 3.

Analysis:

We’re five matches in the second round and for the fifth time we have multiple Nintendo characters going up against each other. That’s what we get for nominating 28 Brawl characters, Sandbag and various others, by my count there are 35 characters with 22 making it to round 2. LFF has already caused the demise of Marth and Bowser, but will it also be the demise of Ganondorf?

One thing that is certain is that Nightmare will get last in the poll. While it is expected for him to perform better than what he did last round no matter how bad the LFF is there is no chance that Ganondorf will fall below him. Also with Frog being unaffected Nightmare won’t have a chance against Frog, despite fighting characters being favoured in this format not after his performance last round.

Including the defeat of Nightmare last round Samus has had to opportunity to have met each opponent in battle before and she has defeated all of them. As seen in her match against Ganondorf Samus won’t be SFF the Zelda villain and will being splitting the votes very fairly. Even with a drop of strength I don’t see how it is possible for Samus to drop below Frog or Nightmare. In the past she has more than doubled both characters and while both Samus and Ganondorf are Nintendo the two fanbases won’t be lining up that close for Samus to lose.

Ganondorf was the favourite to come out of this match and with his performance last round he should rightfully be. Ganondorf defeated Frog 64.5%-35.5% it would take a massive LFF for him to drop below Frog or a surprise CTDS release tomorrow. Also like I said before I don’t see Nightmare beating Frog so the point is moot.

Frog would need a surprise SFF on Samus part or an unheard of amount of LFF for him to have a chance to advance. It was nice to watch Frog easily defeat KOS-MOS, but his opponents in this match are much stronger than she is. It will be interesting to watch how close Frog can get to Ganondorf. The amphibian should be more worried about defeating Nightmare than Ganondorf.

Despite some major LFF I think both Nintendo characters will advance. The only problem lies with next round as both characters will be there to verse each other again and it may let a certain character do a surprise victory.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Samus > Ganondorf

charmander6000’s Prediction: Samus – 36.35%, Ganondorf – 25.72%, Frog – 20.53%, Nightmare – 17.40%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 105/152 Today's Match: Mario > Mega Man X
smitelf | Posted 10/23/2008 8:28:27 PM | message detail
One thing that is certain is that Nightmare will get last in the poll.

Uh, no, it's not. In fact that is the one thing about this match that isn't certain.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Biden/Obama...er, I mean Obama/Biden '08!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/23/2008 8:29:36 PM | message detail

smitelf (#242)
One thing that is certain is that Nightmare will get last in the poll.

Uh, no, it's not. In fact that is the one thing about this match that isn't certain.



Are you saying Nightmare has a chance to beat Frog? Cuz uh.. no.
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 10/23/2008 8:31:04 PM | message detail
Nightmare's the only non-Nintendo in the poll. I mean, Nightmare over Frog is an upset, but I wouldn't put it past Frog to get turned into a complete joke by Samus again.
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It has War, ExTha, and Crasty insulting each other as hedgehogs while being vaguely about your boobs. What did you expect. - Shadow The ExTha
smitelf | Posted 10/23/2008 8:32:54 PM | message detail
Are you saying Nightmare has a chance to beat Frog? Cuz uh.. no.

Nightmare was statistically stronger last year, and though it's most likely that he's dropped and Frog has gained, there's not enough space between them to say that Frog is the certain victor.
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Biden/Obama...er, I mean Obama/Biden '08!
red sox 777 | Posted 10/23/2008 8:33:43 PM | message detail
Of course Nightmare has a chance to beat Frog. Nightmare put up over 30% on Samus last round: Frog has faced Samus 3 times, and has never managed that. Yes, that was likely a weaker Samus than the ones Frog faced, and she was probably being hurt by the general malaise of the Noble Nine last round, but still, Nightmare definitely has a chance to beat Frog (and Ganon!).
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 110/156 --- T-420 (108 way)
Bracket: Mario > Megaman X --- Vote: Megaman X
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/23/2008 8:34:06 PM | message detail
Nightmare's the only non-Nintendo in the poll. I mean, Nightmare over Frog is an upset, but I wouldn't put it past Frog to get turned into a complete joke by Samus again.

What does it mean when you say "put it past", as in the sense you just used it?

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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/23/2008 8:35:04 PM | message detail
Frog isn't Nintendo... And if you're going by the fact he was on SNES, then Nightmare was on Gamecube.
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vcharon | Posted 10/23/2008 8:35:24 PM | message detail
My bracket has Samus > Nightmare


Now I don't think that'll happen in a million years, I'm not sure what I was thinking about when I did that. Still, did anyone else have to stop and do a double take on Ganon's pick? I think he's screwed.
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 10/23/2008 8:36:34 PM | message detail
I'm saying that Frog rarely has a performance that makes sense. The guy almost always looks either really good, or puts up a performance that makes us all wonder how in the hell he once beat Snake during the day vote.
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It has War, ExTha, and Crasty insulting each other as hedgehogs while being vaguely about your boobs. What did you expect. - Shadow The ExTha
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