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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 608

DpObliVion | Posted 10/23/2008 10:08:10 AM | message detail
Good to see Mario finally took the lead back. He's pretty much screwed next round though, I think.

I could be wrong, but I have to think Mario would get much more of the split against Luigi than Zelda, I think the Zelda fanbase is distanced and devoted enough to keep votes whereas Luigi is basically Mario-lite. Also, Mudkip gives more advantage to MMX than Liquid Snake would in the SFF battle.

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DpObliVion | Posted 10/23/2008 10:09:29 AM | message detail
I don't think ASV would give Mudkipz the 1k votes he needs to topple Zelda... Zelda will get good ASV as well.

Yeah, I figure that as well, which is why I'm looking at her lead growing and thinking it may be enough to hold off Mudkip. Another 20 vote gain for Zelda there.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
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The Mana Sword | Posted 10/23/2008 10:10:55 AM | message detail
I'm one of those people that think Luigi's going to hurt Mario more than Zelda did. I could be wrong and for the sake of my bracket I hope I am, but I can't seem to shake the feeling that Luigi's going to hold up really well next round.
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DpObliVion | Posted 10/23/2008 10:15:06 AM | message detail
I can see the other side of the argument, though. Luigi may be a simple sidekick, but Mario is a simple lead character. Luigi's got the underdog factor, maybe a good percentage of people decide to throw their vote to Luigi instead of Mario, especially with this trend of anti-voting the supposed dominant character in the poll.

Luigi obviously is a closer split to Mario than Zelda is. It will be interesting to see if that hurts or helps Mario, it could go either way I suppose. I'm banking on it helping Mario more, though.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/23/2008 10:15:57 AM | message detail
Plus Luigi is a playable character in nearly every mario game, has his own games, internet memes and such. I don't think he'll fold like some people do
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/23/2008 10:17:03 AM | message detail
Right now Mario is doing about 2% worse on Zelda and Mega Man X is doing about 2% better on Mudkip.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 105/152 Today's Match: Mario > Mega Man X
nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/23/2008 10:18:13 AM | message detail
I think having Luigi there will benefit Mario more as a percentage of the votes, but with Liquid there I think Luigi/Mario will get under the 50% of the votes they're currently netting.
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But who knows.
nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/23/2008 10:20:20 AM | message detail
*then Luigi/Zelda are currently netting.
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:p
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/23/2008 10:20:54 AM | message detail
You mean Mario/Zelda?
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/23/2008 10:47:59 AM | message detail
>_<

Shup.

Also I like how 'Kip and X both made their first cut for ages in the same update.
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lulz
DpObliVion | Posted 10/23/2008 10:58:56 AM | message detail
Zelda over a 1000 vote lead.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/23/2008 11:01:29 AM | message detail
They're both being stalled no, rather then the increasing their lead at the rampant pace they have been up till a few minutes ago.
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:O
wavedash101 | Posted 10/23/2008 11:08:39 AM | message detail
I think Luigi will benefit from a more devoted fanbase, since Luigi actually has a defined personality, and isnt the typical silent hero Mario is. It just seems people would care more

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/23/2008 11:14:22 AM | message detail
I really am sensing a good Luigi performance. He's been waiting for this moment for years... decades! Also, it may almost seem like goddamned trolling to say this after what we saw yesterday, but I wouldn't be too surprised if Luigi actually beat Liquid. He's had his fun, but the competition is too strong next round, and the spotlight won't be on him. I think it might be the Chief/Alucard/Yuna thing all over again.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/23/2008 11:18:29 AM | message detail
Liquid's problem wasn't strong competition. It's that his strong competition was MC, Yuna, and Alucard. Luigi/Bowser/Phoenix are certainly comparable to that at the least, and he held up like a champ. In a match where he should stand out like hell, I can't see how Liquid doesn't do well.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/23/2008 11:18:30 AM | message detail
Oh god I'm getting giddy about Arthas

He'll likely advance in his next match with Pikachu > Arthas due to more hype about Wotlk (since has last match, the patch has been released and he's on the title screen now, and Arthas just started his invasion of Azeroth yesterday), then if it gets to Crono/Block/Pikachu/Arthas... can Blzizard ralliers do a Starcraft type of rallying/stuffing to get Block out of here!?
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swirIdude | Posted 10/23/2008 11:20:15 AM | message detail
Crap, Mario took the lead, my bracket can't do much right.
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swirIdude | Posted 10/23/2008 11:21:11 AM | message detail
By the way, do you know what this Luigi talk of doing well against Mario reminds me of?

The original rSFF bait, Magus vs Crono 2004.

Remind me, how did THAT one go down?
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/23/2008 11:22:29 AM | message detail
Crono doubled Magus.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/23/2008 11:23:43 AM | message detail
He'll likely advance in his next match with Pikachu > Arthas due to more hype about Wotlk (since has last match, the patch has been released and he's on the title screen now, and Arthas just started his invasion of Azeroth yesterday),

He might beat Pikachu. Ike split Pikachu pretty well last round, and after watching what Captain Falcon did, it stands to reason that he could do an even better job.

then if it gets to Crono/Block/Pikachu/Arthas... can Blzizard ralliers do a Starcraft type of rallying/stuffing to get Block out of here!?

Now you're pushing it. They'd vote for L-Block just like anyone else looking for a laugh. You'd stop rallying in that match after 20 minutes.
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swirIdude | Posted 10/23/2008 11:23:50 AM | message detail
We have a winner. No Magus overperformance, no Magus WIN, like some predicted, just a SFF beatdown.

Obviously 4 ways work differently, but Liquid and MMX aren't going to hold much of the Nintendo vote.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/23/2008 11:26:29 AM | message detail
Now you're pushing it. They'd vote for L-Block just like anyone else looking for a laugh. You'd stop rallying in that match after 20 minutes.

Yeah, I prolly am. Just hoping <_<
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/23/2008 11:28:21 AM | message detail
But Blizzard fanboys are more loyal to their characters then most though... so they might be a bit more resistant to voting for the lulz... maybe... <.<
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/23/2008 11:29:55 AM | message detail
I'm not sure how much Pikachu will be hurt by Falcon. Outside of Smash Pikachu is going to crush him, but even in Melee Pikachu was a popular choice outside of tournament goers. Alucard > Pikachu and Alucard > Arthas is totally possible though.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 105/152 Today's Match: Mario > Mega Man X
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/23/2008 11:31:23 AM | message detail
I don't see Alucard beating Arthas. Just by pure Xstats, the last time we saw Diablo at a non LFF strength, he was stronger then Alucard, and Arthas proved hes stronger then Diablo and is Blizzards strongest overall character. So th at plus Wotlk hype, and Alucards decline every year, I just can't see Alucard beating Arthas. Maybe I'm biased but meh
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hailEC | Posted 10/23/2008 11:34:12 AM | message detail
Liquid's problem wasn't strong competition. It's that his strong competition was MC, Yuna, and Alucard. Luigi/Bowser/Phoenix are certainly comparable to that at the least, and he held up like a champ. In a match where he should stand out like hell, I can't see how Liquid doesn't do well.

This. I'd entertain Luigi > Mario long before I entertain Luigi > Liquid

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/23/2008 11:36:25 AM | message detail
Ok seriously you wouldn't
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DpObliVion | Posted 10/23/2008 12:09:19 PM | message detail
Going back to what I was discussing before, if it means anything, I voted Mario today, and will be voting Luigi next round, so....yeah.

I still don't know about that match though. The one thing I do know, is that I'm suddenly very interested in that match.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
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hailEC | Posted 10/23/2008 12:11:30 PM | message detail
I'll be voting Luigi next round too. But I voted for the kipz. Suck it Mario!

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all hail ec your lord and savior
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/23/2008 12:12:07 PM | message detail
X > Liquid next round BELIEVE!
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/23/2008 12:16:48 PM | message detail
Mario is making a killing with the ASV.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 105/152 Today's Match: Mario > Mega Man X
Link The Hylian | Posted 10/23/2008 12:31:33 PM | message detail
*checks poll*

Awesome. Mario is in first and Mudkips in last where he belongs. Now if only L Block and the rest of the joke characters could get eliminated this might turn out to be a decent contest.

Fat chance though.

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charmander6000 | Posted 10/23/2008 12:40:02 PM | message detail
Awesome. Mario is in first and Mudkips in last where he belongs. Now if only L Block and the rest of the joke characters could get eliminated this might turn out to be a decent contest.

Round 2 will be the last chance to get rid of the joke characters and of L-Block, WCC and Sandbag WCC has the weakest match. Mudkip has an actual fanbase though (Swampert is really popular in the meta-game), but with this kind of performance I think the joke characters should be on the lookout.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 105/152 Today's Match: Mario > Mega Man X
Yesmar | Posted 10/23/2008 12:53:14 PM | message detail
I know it's (likely) not any points, but after looking at the Oracle topic, am I the only one who has Nightmare ahead of Frog? They performed at the same level against Samus, albeit in different years. Samus has probably dropped off some since 2005, but Frog probably has as well.
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""--Banjo
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/23/2008 12:59:16 PM | message detail
Boo, X. Well, he's a lock for 1st for next round at least.

Come on X>Luigi

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
DpObliVion | Posted 10/23/2008 1:14:53 PM | message detail
WTF, why did MMX gain a few on the update before? No matter, Mario just shot back up on that one, about to break the 1000 vote barrier, whoo.

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Shea Stadium - My home. You will be missed. 1964-2008
greatone10 | Posted 10/23/2008 1:27:12 PM | message detail

swirIdude (#121)
We have a winner. No Magus overperformance, no Magus WIN, like some predicted, just a SFF beatdown.



Did Magus even underperform that much? He actually held up really well IIRC, considering what happened to him the next year. Not that it has anything to do with this.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/23/2008 1:29:58 PM | message detail

greatone10 (#137)

swirIdude (#121)
We have a winner. No Magus overperformance, no Magus WIN, like some predicted, just a SFF beatdown.



Did Magus even underperform that much? He actually held up really well IIRC, considering what happened to him the next year. Not that it has anything to do with this.



2005 Xstats of Crono vs. Magus:
Crono wins with 59.96% of the vote!
A win of 20,497 with 102,925 total votes cast.

2004 Results of Crono vs. Magus:
Crono wins with 69.78% of the vote!
A win of 30,822 with 77,900 total votes cast.
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BDawg | Posted 10/23/2008 1:31:57 PM | message detail
Since when is Luigi a brooding anti-hero.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/23/2008 1:34:01 PM | message detail
Granted, it's pretty unlikely that the proportion predicted by the 2005 stats is correct, considering Knuckles probably overperformed against Squall and Vincent may have boosted with AC between his match with Crono, but yeah, Magus is worth a lot more than 30% on Crono.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 110/156 --- T-420 (108 way)
Bracket: Mario > Megaman X --- Vote: Megaman X
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2008 1:38:43 PM | message detail
You'd think half the people in this topic don't read any posts. Mario isn't screwed at all next round unless Luigi winds up doing good against his brother. Luigi could get creamed ala Peach/Daisy, or he could pull a Zero and do even better than expected.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/23/2008 1:47:41 PM | message detail
I have a feeling that Mario will surprise us and demolish X next round, actually. Then again, I thought the same thing last night. For round 4, I sort of like Zack to take second now. I figure he'll still get low 20s thanks to really standing out, and 24% of the site having FFVII as their favorite game. Link will be there sucking up at least 35% of the votes, and looking at today's match, Mario and X will probably be fairly close. The closer they are the better chance Zack has of beating both (and also of finishing last).
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 110/156 --- T-420 (108 way)
Bracket: Mario > Megaman X --- Vote: Megaman X
charmander6000 | Posted 10/23/2008 1:50:10 PM | message detail
At this pace Mario is going to surpass Zelda's lead on Mudkip.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 105/152 Today's Match: Mario > Mega Man X
Xuxon | Posted 10/23/2008 1:50:11 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-37.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-38.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-39.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-40.jpg

augh scorpion
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hailEC | Posted 10/23/2008 1:51:18 PM | message detail
So when did Bacon decide to stop making terrible match pics? Next division is pretty awesome. Also how long have they been up, or are they new?

Did/will everyone cream over Ganon? What the hell scorpion what. Falco rocket launcher is ridiculous, and Samus is sexy as ever.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
hailEC | Posted 10/23/2008 1:51:38 PM | message detail
well that answers my question huh
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all hail ec your lord and savior
Xuxon | Posted 10/23/2008 1:52:01 PM | message detail
also wtf at ryu's text
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/23/2008 1:52:02 PM | message detail
aww yea 4 pics
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/23/2008 1:52:40 PM | message detail

Xuxon (#147)
also wtf at ryu's text



.its japanese for his name I'm guessing
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/23/2008 1:52:56 PM | message detail
lol Ganon to lose somehow

what the hell Scorpion

augh L-Block in first confirmed

whoa there Arthas
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