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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 608

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2008 9:02:03 AM | message detail
Vincent's first round performance wasn't too great, and we saw how he fell apart against elite competition last year.

The man was with LINK in every match but one and looked great until he hit Sephiroth. Take off the blinders.
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hailEC | Posted 10/24/2008 9:04:04 AM | message detail
Yeah... I mean do you really need any more proof of that than Samus (arguably) being in the realm of Sephiroth, and at the same time almost losing to Tifa? Say her pic was unrecognizable all you want, but the name Samus is pretty damn unique. I doubt a large amount of Metroid fans couldn't realize ZSS was her. That power suit gleams with awesome. One of the best character designs of all time, no doubt.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
hailEC | Posted 10/24/2008 9:06:34 AM | message detail
He looked pretty crappy against Glados and Falco to me. Granted they're both essentially unknowns, but I expected much more out of him. I have plenty of faith in his strength, I took him over Crono again this year, and still think he'd beat him 1v1. It really has a lot less to do with underrating Vincent and just having faith in Samus. What I said still holds though.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
H__RR____H | Posted 10/24/2008 9:08:56 AM | message detail
I have Vincent > Samus in my bracket without Falco being there, but I edged away from that upset about the time I edged away from my MMX > Mario upsets (that's right...both times). I think it'll be hotly contested, but right now Samus is showing she can make something happen despite Ganon. It's on Vincent tomorrow to impress and/or Falco to take second place to put it back in Vincent's favor...

...but if Falco makes it, I don't see how Vincent doesn't become an easy favorite. If a lot of Samus's strength comes from SSB, Falco's taking a lot of that support. Ganon probably won't lose a lot of support from Falco's presence and -- aside from whatever the sprites do to them -- shouldn't lose any ground on Samus at the least. Throw in that Vincent was able to beat Crono in the sprite round last year and Mario only barely beat MMX when Zelda and Mudkip are in the match (not to mention one can argue that Ganon > Zelda and Falco > Mudkip)...just saying, Vincent will be a lot more independent than MMX and perhaps naturally stronger. Samus will be split worse than Mario. Vincent's sprite has held up twice to fantastic competition. It will be a very bad situation for Samus...not impossible, but very bad.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2008 9:09:42 AM | message detail
Oh, no doubt he looked crummy against Falco and GlaDOS (although in the context of all the obvious favorites underperforming last round, it's not so bad). In terms of what he did last year though, there's no downplaying it. He'll probably end up with his FF7 character model too (like last year), so Samus will have to beat him on her own strength (which she likely will).
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hailEC | Posted 10/24/2008 9:15:02 AM | message detail
One could make the argument of Ganon > Zelda? Seems like a foregone conclusion to me... and seeing what Samus is doing to him right now, doesn't make me at all shy away from taking her there. I don't think comparing this to Mario's match is really fair. Falco could be anywhere in relation to Mudkip in my mind (above, below, equal), but probably not too far off. Who knows though.

Every day I just keep realizing that if we get a 1v1 contest again with proper bracket making it should be the greatest contest we have ever seen. Of course now that Brawl DE-BOOST is running strong we'll finally get to see Samus/Seph and I'll be pissed. Nintendo needs to release a new console imoimo.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
H__RR____H | Posted 10/24/2008 9:18:50 AM | message detail
Strength-wise, I'll agree Falco (especially in sprite form) probably doesn't deviate far from Mudkip...but I think it's hard not to argue that Falco should affect Samus more than Mudkip affects Mario.
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hailEC | Posted 10/24/2008 9:32:45 AM | message detail
Yeah, falco should hurt Samus more than Mudkip did Mario, but MMX is such an unknown, and that's a 4-way of overlap... eh I just don't like making the comparison. MMX could beat Vincent with ease for all we know after yesterday's match.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
BDawg | Posted 10/24/2008 9:34:01 AM | message detail
I think the kip would hold up better, really. Fox got horribly embarrassed in round 3 last year thanks to ugly face and it's bleeping Mario. There's no Mario in the room but between Samus and Ganon...what's left for Falco?
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Should I start running now?
H__RR____H | Posted 10/24/2008 9:42:13 AM | message detail
I'll grant you the four-way overlap issues. Still, it's not so much about what's left for Falco as it is what Falco takes from Samus. Falco will be doing good to finish with 10%, but I would think the majority of that would go to Samus instead of Ganon or especially Vincent if Scorpion/Gordon advances instead. We can also see that -- despite Samus impressing today -- Ganon is holding Samus back at least some because Frog is doing comparatively well on Samus...

...if Vincent still has the strength necessary to beat Crono, then Ganon and Falco alone can bring Samus down enough for Vincent to have the advantage. Who knows what the spites will add or detract for Samus/Vincent, too.
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H__RR____H | Posted 10/24/2008 9:46:07 AM | message detail
I'm actually glad BDawg mentioned Fox against Mario, though this now goes off-topic:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Image:Cb6-51.jpg

Look at the picture. That means Solid Snake's codec-sprites from MGS1 have got to be acceptable and the headshot-concern is unnecessary.

Joy.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2008 9:48:05 AM | message detail
Look at the picture. That means Solid Snake's codec-sprites from MGS1 have got to be acceptable and the headshot-concern is unnecessary.

Or Fox doesn't have a sprite apart from that one.

Though this should be unnecessary as you should all be submitting nothing but that MGS1 face sprite anyway !!
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turnturnturn your brain in
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2008 9:48:34 AM | message detail
Codec sprites will be accepted but I wouldn't count on them getting used. Snake has other 2D appearances as opposed to Fox, where that's literally the only 2D representation of him that exists.
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CB7 Score: 120/160
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/MrSaturn-WalkFront.gif || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2008 9:49:00 AM | message detail
damn you kh
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CB7 Score: 120/160
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/MrSaturn-WalkFront.gif || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg
hailEC | Posted 10/24/2008 9:49:15 AM | message detail
Samus is still getting 66% on Frog despite brawl DE-BOOST, Ganon being here, and Frog not having to endure his worst part of the day yet. She got 70% on him way back in 2K5. I'd really like to see what she finishes with on him today. If she can get to 68%+ that's just bonkers.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
H__RR____H | Posted 10/24/2008 9:51:23 AM | message detail
I'm assuming SB has a heart, soul, and brain. Work with me guys! If nothing else, maybe his codec-face can be the background for a sprite or something...? The more variations of his codec, the better chance it has of being used...hopefully.
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Lobby Hero
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hailEC | Posted 10/24/2008 9:52:31 AM | message detail
I'm submitting solid ****.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2008 9:52:53 AM | message detail
I'm assuming SB has a heart, soul, and brain.

solid **** confirmed
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CB7 Score: 120/160
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/MrSaturn-WalkFront.gif || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2008 9:53:07 AM | message detail
damn you ec
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CB7 Score: 120/160
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/MrSaturn-WalkFront.gif || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg
hailEC | Posted 10/24/2008 9:55:06 AM | message detail
lame beans
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all hail ec your lord and savior
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2008 9:55:14 AM | message detail
I'm submitting solid ****.

Submitting Metroid 1 Samus confirmed
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H__RR____H | Posted 10/24/2008 9:55:33 AM | message detail
ec being heartless soulless and brainless confirmed
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Lobby Hero
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2008 9:55:45 AM | message detail
zero suit samus imo
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CB7 Score: 120/160
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/MrSaturn-WalkFront.gif || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg
H__RR____H | Posted 10/24/2008 9:56:08 AM | message detail
No KH, send a ZSS-sprite!
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Lobby Hero
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hailEC | Posted 10/24/2008 9:56:35 AM | message detail
darn you stats topic

I don't even have photoshop I'm a lame mac user who doesn't know anything I take it all back.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2008 9:56:44 AM | message detail
good call
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/24/2008 10:29:42 AM | message detail
Should get her bikini sprite from original metroid imo
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H__RR____H | Posted 10/24/2008 10:30:25 AM | message detail
Samus would win in a blow-out.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/24/2008 11:42:14 AM | message detail
New Discussion from the guru topic.

Link > Mario or Link >Vincent in Link/Mario/Samus/Vincent.

Last year we saw

Seph....| Mario...| Link......| Vinny
31.48%|22.24%|36.42%|9.85%

So Mario got 37% on Seph and Vinny got 23% on Seph. While lol x-stats say

Sephiroth (2007c) VS Vincent (2007c)

Sephiroth has a strength of 49.25.
Vincent has a strength of 36.25.

Sephiroth wins with 63.20% of the vote!

or

Sephiroth (2006c) VS Vincent (2006c)

Sephiroth has a strength of 49.16.
Vincent has a strength of 37.09.

Sephiroth wins with 62.28% of the vote!

as opposed to

Link (2007c) VS Mario (2007c)

Link has a strength of 59.90.
Mario has a strength of 42.07.

Link wins with 64.88% of the vote!

or

Link (2006c) VS Mario (2006c)

Link has a strength of 56.33.
Mario has a strength of 43.20.

Link wins with 61.65% of the vote!

which actually show Mario was hardly SFFed at all in that match which I didn't expect while Vincent shipped 14% to Sephiroth.

Normalising that SFF of the Seph/Vincent votes to a 63/37 split gives

Seph....| Mario...| Link......| Vinny
26.04%|22.24%|36.42%|15.29%

Then factor in that removing Seph will massively benefit Vincent over Mario and then we're adding in Samus. Vincent only needs to gain 7% on Mario. That looks reasonably easy to me.
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Nay?
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/24/2008 12:01:22 PM | message detail
I gotta say... Frog is holding up better percentage wise then I thought in the day. He's stayed at about 20.8% forever.
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vcharon | Posted 10/24/2008 12:07:13 PM | message detail
Decent enough rebound for Nightmare here, considering his really awful starting percentage.
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:>
red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2008 12:59:25 PM | message detail
I'd consider Samus the favorite over Vincent with Ganon and not Falco in the poll: she should end up with over a doubling against Frog even with Ganon here. Further, Samus is currently above 62% on Ganon- better than what she put up in 2005, and better than what Mario got on Zelda yesterday.

Add Falco and.....I don't think Samus gets hurt all that much. Fox is stronger than Falco, and he got SFF'd into the ground in round 3 last year. Neither Samus nor Ganon are as good as Mario at SFF (well, considering Samus > Ganon by more than Mario > Zelda, and Ganon > Zelda, maybe she is now!), but 2-way SFF is much stronger than 1-way SFF. Further, Falco will be the weakest character by far in the poll, and we've seen such characters collapse numerous times. If it were Mario I'd take Vincent for first, but I think the intrinsic strength gap between Samus and Mario has widened this year with the Deboost (which makes sense, as it was the Nintendo Boost that made that gap smaller in the first place).
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 118/164 --- T-354 (89 way)
Bracket: Samus > Frog --- Vote: Frog
hailEC | Posted 10/24/2008 1:16:52 PM | message detail
Link/Mario/Samus/Vincent?

Link > Samus everyone ****ts their pants and flips out and Samus > Seph is secured.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2008 1:24:09 PM | message detail
it's okay to know when to admit defeat EC
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__hiei__ | Posted 10/24/2008 1:25:47 PM | message detail
Link> Vincent

VIncent could actually beat Link in that fourpack.... and Samus would look like Jade Curtiss there
PegasusLover123 | Posted 10/24/2008 1:46:44 PM | message detail
Guess it looks like there's no way for Frog to catch up to Ganondorf now.

As for Samus, is she underperforming here or is she doing better than expected?

I have to admit Samus is one of my favorites, probably because in my eyes, she was the first "playable heroine" in the Nintendo era, long before ff6 which had Terra.

Also she wasn't the typical helpless or indecisive woman, but rather a tactical, resourceful bounty hunter with an extreme hate for the Space Pirates.

I lost a little respect from her after Zero MIssion since they didn't need to feminize her any more.
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BC: 0774-7368-9787 name: EDS "Casual player" so dont count me in for no item matches.
Link The Hylian | Posted 10/24/2008 1:50:53 PM | message detail
*checks poll*

Good. Now lets see Frog come back from that.

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"The PS2 had 12,000,000 pre orders. To give you an idea of how many people that is that's over half of the world population." - DifferentialEquation
HaRRicH | Posted 10/24/2008 2:02:12 PM | message detail
Don't dare him. He'll do it man.


So...Frog VS DK: how do you feel about them in a match now that they're eliminated?
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/24/2008 2:14:52 PM | message detail
4000 votes in 7 hours?

Votes per update for Frog > Ganon: 47.94

Is that it?
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Easy.
<.<
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/24/2008 2:16:38 PM | message detail
Donkey Kong got about 20% in a match with the WCC, Tidus, and Tails.
Frog is getting about 20% in a match with Samus, Ganondorf, and Nightmare.

Seems like a pretty easy choice.
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Mustache...and green...
hailEC | Posted 10/24/2008 2:25:28 PM | message detail
I agree. DK > Frog is an easy pick.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
ZFS | Posted 10/24/2008 2:26:33 PM | message detail
Samus and Frog are doing about what I expected them to do, but Ganon's doing a bit worse. Figured he would have done a little better after Zelda yesterday. Good show from Samus.

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try to imagine a thing called a B button
HaRRicH | Posted 10/24/2008 2:28:03 PM | message detail
For what it's worth, Samus and Ganon being in the same poll are allowing Frog and Nightmare to look better.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2008 2:28:49 PM | message detail
Frog > DK seems very likely after this match.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 118/164 --- T-354 (89 way)
Bracket: Samus > Frog --- Vote: Frog
hailEC | Posted 10/24/2008 2:30:12 PM | message detail
frog benefits from LFF, DK suffers from it.

it's just as unclear as it's ever been

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all hail ec your lord and savior
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2008 2:31:32 PM | message detail
Yeah, Frog/DK was a pretty good match (both essentially even with pre-Halo 2 MC) until DK got de-boosted.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2008 2:32:32 PM | message detail
Wait DK went even with post-Halo 2 MC didn't he

man I don't know
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2008 2:32:42 PM | message detail
Even if Frog may not be as strong as today shows, DK was still closer to Tails than Tidus.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/24/2008 2:33:11 PM | message detail
Cube > Link final imo
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For the awesome.
nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/24/2008 2:33:31 PM | message detail
^that's actually 500
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<.<
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