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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 608

UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/23/2008 4:12:53 AM | message detail
EEEP EEEP EEEP I LOVE MUDKIPZ

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

~*aprosenf's poll script*~
http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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"A joke format for a joke contest deserves joke winners." -Moltar ~*ST*~
NP: Final Fantasy 4 DS, Mother 3, Spore
Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 4:14:15 AM | message detail
Mario / X and Zelda / Kips sure are interesting matches!
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Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/23/2008 4:38:28 AM | message detail
I'll eat my face if the winners of those duels aren't Mario and Zelda.
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Smurf , The cream of Knuckles Fanboyism.
hellohey94 | Posted 10/23/2008 4:42:55 AM | message detail
NOO MUDKIP
you can do it!!!!!!
everyone leiks you!!!
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Look in Profile for F/C :D
I put Mudkip in top 2 for Character Battle! You should too! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YP5i5-G2f3c
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/23/2008 4:44:07 AM | message detail
What? No Guts Man's Ass?
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Warning, there is a bear right behind you.
Ride Him.
greatone10 | Posted 10/23/2008 4:45:12 AM | message detail
Holy crap, the last time I saw X's lead, it was at 300. I think Mario is going to win, but you gotta give it to X. He's probably already won the Star of the Round award just for hanging with Mario, even if this is LFF at it's best.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/23/2008 4:48:00 AM | message detail
Yeah losing to the weakest Mario we've ever seen while he's being triply SFF'd. What a star.
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Smurf , The cream of Knuckles Fanboyism.
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/23/2008 4:48:41 AM | message detail
dunno about that, Have a feeling that Gordo's going to do something(yes, Mr. Freeman), or Jill going to do something as well(probably lose by 27 again)
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Warning, there is a bear right behind you.
Ride Him.
greatone10 | Posted 10/23/2008 4:49:07 AM | message detail
The weakest Mario we've ever seen would still wipe the floor with anyone without Noble Nine strength.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/23/2008 4:50:03 AM | message detail
sigh.

Gordo = Gordon.

mark my words!
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Warning, there is a bear right behind you.
Ride Him.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 4:50:39 AM | message detail
Wonder what sprite Gordon will get if he makes it to round 3.
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GokuSoul | Posted 10/23/2008 4:50:47 AM | message detail
ITS TOO HARD TO V0TE :(((
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ACWW - 0474-0803-1229 - Kevin@Madhouse
JUS - 4210-4763-7050 - Gsoul
Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/23/2008 4:53:10 AM | message detail
The weakest Mario we've ever seen would still wipe the floor with anyone without Noble Nine strength.

What do you think he's doing today? While being SFFed by two others he's still going to win comfortably. Hell Nintendo is picking up over 70% of the vote already today, imagine the slaughter if it was 1 on 1.
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Smurf , The cream of Knuckles Fanboyism.
greatone10 | Posted 10/23/2008 4:54:49 AM | message detail
Let me put that a little different, the weakest Mario we've ever seen would never even let someone without Noble Nine strength pull a stunt like a 800 vote lead.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/23/2008 4:55:30 AM | message detail
To put it another way, Mega Man X is getting 60% on Zelda who's suffering double SFF. In a one on one situation Zelda would win easily, is this a good X performance?
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Smurf , The cream of Knuckles Fanboyism.
Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/23/2008 4:57:33 AM | message detail
Let me put that a little different, the weakest Mario we've ever seen would never even let someone without Noble Nine strength pull a stunt like a 800 vote lead.

While being doubly SFF'D? That's like tying Floyd Mayweather's hands behind his back and chaining him to a wall then praising some scrub because he "almost" beat him in a fight.
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Smurf , The cream of Knuckles Fanboyism.
EternalxCourage | Posted 10/23/2008 5:01:32 AM | message detail
Good lord Smurf is annoying. Shut up already. Mega Man is just doing better than you wanted him to. Why? Probably because you don't know anything about the character battle. Just pipe down already and let the men talk statistics.
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Do you know who the **** I am? ***** I'm the man.
The one and only Curt.
EternalxCourage | Posted 10/23/2008 5:02:21 AM | message detail
And for the love of god don't ever try and make a boxing reference again because you don't know anything about it.
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Do you know who the **** I am? ***** I'm the man.
The one and only Curt.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 5:03:36 AM | message detail
Oh snap, X gained.
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greatone10 | Posted 10/23/2008 5:03:41 AM | message detail
Yeah, because Bowser sure destroyed Ryu once Mewtwo and Toad weren't there. Just because X if benefitting from triple SFF doesn't mean he isn't strong.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
EternalxCourage | Posted 10/23/2008 5:04:58 AM | message detail
He's just blind. He doesn't realize that a lot of the old school votes that would be going to Mega Man are going to Mario in stead. Mega Man would wipe the floor with Zelda.
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Do you know who the **** I am? ***** I'm the man.
The one and only Curt.
EternalxCourage | Posted 10/23/2008 5:08:14 AM | message detail
Also "lol" at people calling this triple SFF. Mudkip isn't voted on as a nintendo character, it's voted on as a joke character. There's a big difference.
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Do you know who the **** I am? ***** I'm the man.
The one and only Curt.
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/23/2008 5:10:19 AM | message detail
It's definitely possible, even likely, that Zelda hurts Mario more than Luigi does. All it would take is for Luigi to be weak enough against Mario for Mario to SFF him instead of getting LFFed.

Hmm, funny, it's not my first instinct. My first instinct is to think that the fanbase split will be so much in Mario's favor that it will be an SFF situation rather than an LFF one.


this is why we don't use different terms for the same thing. argh.
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greatone10 | Posted 10/23/2008 5:11:10 AM | message detail
You would have to be foolish to think that Mudkip draws ALL of his votes based on "i herd u liek mudkipz". Keep in mind he is a starter Pokemon for RSE, which has to at least put him on Lucario's level pre-Brawl.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 5:11:28 AM | message detail
Mega Man would, yes. In fact, we saw the two of them go at it already.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1352

Note that this match happened back in 2k3.


With X on the other hand, it's still debatable.

These two performances between X and Luigi are comparable:

Luigi / Mudkip / Pit / Tingle
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2879&num=4

Lloyd / Mudkip / Nook / X
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3251&num=4
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greatone10 | Posted 10/23/2008 5:14:18 AM | message detail
Personally, I prefer to use LFF when the weaker character in the same fanbase drags down the stronger character, causing him/her to underperform against the rest of the field.

Likewise, I use SFF when the stronger character holds down the weaker character, causing him/her to underperform against the rest of the field.

This match has quite a bit of both, obviously.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
EternalxCourage | Posted 10/23/2008 5:15:12 AM | message detail
Those aren't really comparable. SFF!!! Mudkip was the only Nintendo character in the match against X whereas all of them were Nintendo against Luigi.

Besides, Luigi is stronger than Zelda.
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Do you know who the **** I am? ***** I'm the man.
The one and only Curt.
greatone10 | Posted 10/23/2008 5:23:03 AM | message detail
Nook is Nintendo and Lloyd's only game is mostly played by Nintendo fans due to being one of the few RPGs on the system.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 5:23:41 AM | message detail
Uh... pretty sure most folks here would say Zelda's slightly stronger than Luigi.

Well, we'll be able to compare them somewhat after next round, even though Mario's around to mess things up.
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EternalxCourage | Posted 10/23/2008 5:25:38 AM | message detail
Luigi would beat Zelda every time.
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Do you know who the **** I am? ***** I'm the man.
The one and only Curt.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 5:26:00 AM | message detail
And as much as I don't like pointing it out, Trailer-Pit took up more percentage in the Luigi match than Lloyd did in the X match.
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 5:29:08 AM | message detail
Well, these probably aren't the best polls to use, considering the bracket but...:

Samus / Zelda
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2561

Sonic / Luigi
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2553

Zelda did better against a stronger opponent (Samus) than Luigi did against Sonic just 2 years ago.
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EternalxCourage | Posted 10/23/2008 5:40:51 AM | message detail
I would say that at that point in time, when Luigi faced Sonic, Sonic would beat Samus.
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Do you know who the **** I am? ***** I'm the man.
The one and only Curt.
EternalxCourage | Posted 10/23/2008 5:41:51 AM | message detail
Err...that's the Solid Snake/Samus poll.
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Do you know who the **** I am? ***** I'm the man.
The one and only Curt.
transience | Posted 10/23/2008 5:41:58 AM | message detail
Zelda beats Luigi.
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
EternalxCourage | Posted 10/23/2008 5:43:09 AM | message detail
Oh wait, that year.

Haha yeah but that's the year that Tifa almost beat Samus. You can't compare.
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Do you know who the **** I am? ***** I'm the man.
The one and only Curt.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 5:43:11 AM | message detail
The only time Samus was vulnerable that year was when she got her ZSS pic against Tifa.

Besides, that contest ended with Samus beating Snake, who beat Sonic.
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EternalxCourage | Posted 10/23/2008 5:44:14 AM | message detail
Keep in mind if you are using them as a direct comparison Zelda would beat Sonic one on one (would never happen).
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Do you know who the **** I am? ***** I'm the man.
The one and only Curt.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 5:45:50 AM | message detail
Yeah, Zelda > Sonic probably wouldn't happen. (Unless it was in this format with the right extra characters!)

Curse that female bracket anomaly!
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 5:47:06 AM | message detail
Still though, Zelda has looked better throughout the years compared to Luigi.

Man, I'm arguing against Luigi here. How did that happen?
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 5:51:45 AM | message detail
More notable still, I've never actually argued in a stats topic before. >_>
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Iamthekuzalol | Posted 10/23/2008 5:57:52 AM | message detail
Zelda will beat luigi easily, why even bother arguing about this is beyond me.
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 10/23/2008 6:07:16 AM | message detail
So now its almost neck and neck again for the lead.

At this rate Mario has a chance to get back into the lead. Zelda is also making a pretty nice recovery against mudkip.

The question now is will Mario gain and keep the lead, or will X overtake him again in the evening?
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BC: 0774-7368-9787 name: EDS "Casual player" so dont count me in for no item matches.
transience | Posted 10/23/2008 6:12:47 AM | message detail
this match is ovah. Mario > Mega Man X > Zelda > Mudkip.
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
jonthomson | Posted 10/23/2008 6:25:32 AM | message detail
contest, credibility, etc
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Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179
Obama '08 imo
charmander6000 | Posted 10/23/2008 6:35:33 AM | message detail
X isn't giving up.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 105/152 Today's Match: Mario > Mega Man X
Kegger9 | Posted 10/23/2008 6:38:25 AM | message detail
Lets-a go!


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what ever i always new bruce wayne was batman anyway - ertyu
charmander6000 | Posted 10/23/2008 6:43:47 AM | message detail
Finally the lead change.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 105/152 Today's Match: Mario > Mega Man X
Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/23/2008 6:58:07 AM | message detail
Yes Mario. Cut him deep, make his robot ass bleed.
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Smurf , The cream of Knuckles Fanboyism.
Jose Escamilla | Posted 10/23/2008 6:58:40 AM | message detail
aww yeah lead change
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