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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 607

Lopen | Posted 10/22/2008 10:33:41 PM | message detail
Bowser in SFF matches gets votes from people who aren't from the core Nintendo fanbase over fellow Nintendo characters because he's got a cooler design, and he loses that in the 4 way format due to characters actually outside the Nintendo base being there.

It's kinda similar to the argument I made for Mario > Samus many years ago.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe
creativename | Posted 10/22/2008 10:35:04 PM | message detail
Next round depends entirely on how well Luigi stands up to Mario.

Yup.

That's going to be eagerly anticipated.

I think Luigi actually gets the board vote strongly, but after that we should know pretty quickly whether he's gonna get smashed or hold up well.

Mario probably hurts Luigi a lot in the day. Though it likely won't matter by then.
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Lopen | Posted 10/22/2008 10:35:30 PM | message detail
And Kleenex pretty much has it down.

Vincent is basically just Sephiroth lite. Tifa and Vincent would still probably go to Vincent, it's not that he's bad with SFF or anything.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe
creativename | Posted 10/22/2008 10:37:40 PM | message detail
Yeah, he was right, Vincent is more susceptible to Sephiroth because of the design and appeal type factor.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/22/2008 10:38:27 PM | message detail
Pre-contest I was thinking that Luigi/Mario would be the most interesting part of this division. Seems I was right in a way.
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creativename | Posted 10/22/2008 10:40:29 PM | message detail
Bowser in SFF matches gets votes from people who aren't from the core Nintendo fanbase over fellow Nintendo characters because he's got a cooler design, and he loses that in the 4 way format due to characters actually outside the Nintendo base being there.

OK, so that's your explanation for Bowser seemingly being worse at 4-ways. While I don't really believe it, I can't say it's a bad theory.

But what does that have to do with Liquid/MMX "badass" LFF, or anything we were talking about?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/22/2008 10:41:04 PM | message detail
confidence renewed in X

60 vote gain woot
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BDawg | Posted 10/22/2008 10:42:27 PM | message detail
X does what Nintendon't.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/22/2008 10:42:39 PM | message detail
Bowser isn't doing bad in 4-ways, he just is back at his 2003/2004/2006 levels, and is stuck with SFF in every match.
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creativename | Posted 10/22/2008 10:42:39 PM | message detail
Also have to say...I never would've thought to see the day where Mudkip outright won whole updates against Mario.

MUDKIP.

...MARIO.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/22/2008 10:42:59 PM | message detail
It's not so much that voters are looking at the results as they are voting based on expectations. I used to think this wasn't a significant factor, but we've seen time and time again that a good portion of voters do in fact follow the contest- L-Block is the most clear case of it. The Noble Nine disappointing across the board in round 1 this year is another. I'm not saying Tifa couldn't beat Vincent, but I see their performances against Seph as almost entirely worthless in predicting that one.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 110/156 --- T-420 (108 way)
Bracket: Mario > Megaman X --- Vote: Megaman X
Lopen | Posted 10/22/2008 10:43:44 PM | message detail
I said nothin about Liquid/MMX badass SFF I think you misread me.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe
creativename | Posted 10/22/2008 10:43:50 PM | message detail
Yeah BT, I'm still not wholly sold on Bowser being worse at 4-ways either.
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Lopen | Posted 10/22/2008 10:47:31 PM | message detail
The reason I brought it up... I'm not sure. I'm just thinking Luigi could do some big damage in this format with SFF whereas Bowser would do less, despite Bowser possibly holding up just as well 1v1 against Mario.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe
creativename | Posted 10/22/2008 10:48:25 PM | message detail
Alright, you said:

And in this format, it means Luigi holds up even better with respect to Mario because Liquid and X are taking the "badass" votes.

Which I still don't get. Are you trying to imply that MMX and Liquid are going to LFF Mario among voters to whom badasses appeal?
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Lopen | Posted 10/22/2008 10:53:14 PM | message detail
Luigi is a wuss, so people that don't like "teh kiddy" stuff probably vote Mario over him.

But MMX/Liquid take those votes easily way before Mario of all characters. That's what I was getting at. The outside fanbases funnel it into straight Mario fanbase vs Mario fanbase action, and that's why I think Luigi is going to look mighty.

Mario loses a lot of his "it's freaking Mario" vote because of more diverse fanbases being represented, and with Luigi there to directly hamstring his core vote he's going to get out of it looking terrible. MMX > Liquid represent.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe
Xcarvenger | Posted 10/22/2008 10:59:10 PM | message detail
so guys while we are enjoying this 'intense' match, here's my quick explanation as to why Jill can overturn a 2% loss into a 1.5% win against Ocelot this year.

Last Name. Guess what Jill's last name is. I don't think people can deny anymore that any part of the names of the character plays a deciding factor for at least 5% of the voters (and up to 8% imho). We have seen Liquid Snake being the "most boosted" MGS characters, Kain Highwind being the "most impressive" FFIV characters and of course the Jill's anomaly.

and this theory supports ocelot's MGS4 boost (1-2%) and how Cloud SFF'd Jill harder than ocelot last year even though FF/MGS SFF is supposed to be more severe than FF/RE SFF (in this case, cloud's obviously taking all the valentine's votes).

this makes ocelot's loss this year a tad bit more reasonable tbqh, at least for me...


so i think we should get someone named ...... Strife into the contest to see if I'm right or right!

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/22/2008 11:00:12 PM | message detail
What kinda day vote does Mega Man have, exactly?
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/22/2008 11:03:25 PM | message detail
Megaman follows Chrono Trigger "4 hours and die" trends, except that it's not as sharp a falloff, and MM recovers somewhat with the ASV.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 110/156 --- T-420 (108 way)
Bracket: Mario > Megaman X --- Vote: Megaman X
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/22/2008 11:03:53 PM | message detail
Cloud affected the results if that match. With him and Zolom sucking up percentage like a tornado, Ocelot and Jill were left with less of the vote to themselves. In that case, the character with the more hardcore fanbase wins.
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/22/2008 11:05:43 PM | message detail
Cloud SFFs Jill due to "Valentine". Some theory you got there!

So... who benefited from that Tifa Lockhart / Ivy Valentine match a few years back?
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creativename | Posted 10/22/2008 11:11:02 PM | message detail
So are Samus and Ganon going to LFF each other significantly next match?

Cause I have no idea about that.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/22/2008 11:11:32 PM | message detail
so guys while we are enjoying this 'intense' match, here's my quick explanation as to why Jill can overturn a 2% loss into a 1.5% win against Ocelot this year.

Last Name. Guess what Jill's last name is.


Could you be any further from the truth?
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/22/2008 11:12:33 PM | message detail

creativename (#422)
So are Samus and Ganon going to LFF each other significantly next match?

Cause I have no idea about that.



God I hope so

Samus > Frog ftw
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/22/2008 11:12:47 PM | message detail
So are Samus and Ganon going to LFF each other significantly next match?

Cause I have no idea about that.


I doubt it. Samus and Ganon went at it in 2005, and he held his own. Also, Samus has proven herself as unable to SFF anything.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
Xcarvenger | Posted 10/22/2008 11:12:53 PM | message detail
So... who benefited from that Tifa Lockhart / Ivy Valentine match a few years back?

I guess Ivy benefited a bit in that match (Vincent > Tifa confirmed?). wasn't Ivy supposed to be a fodder (only enter the bracket because of our lack of females) and yet putting a 24% against tifa <_<

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Xcarvenger | Posted 10/22/2008 11:13:42 PM | message detail
Could you be any further from the truth?

um what
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trannyscience | Posted 10/22/2008 11:14:40 PM | message detail
Ganon will hold up fine to Samus. I think the better question would be if Vincent will be able to take advantage, not Frog.
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 10/22/2008 11:15:10 PM | message detail
Quite an interesting theory. But if that is true then that means the general IQ of people has dropped yet again........

As for X starting to really pull away from Mario, people blame that both Mudkip and Zelda are the main reason that he's losing.

While i find some of it is true i believe people are actually getting fed up with Mario's games although there's still a few good ones here and there.

Also we had Mega Man 9 released on the Wiiware last month, so theoretically X got a boost from that as "name recognition".

The question is now is that once the side nintendo chars are gone in the round, would X still beat Mario or Luigi, or would he finally get taken down?
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/22/2008 11:16:26 PM | message detail
Could you be any further from the truth?

um what


Last name SFF?! Are you kidding me?! You're not even trying anymore.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
Xcarvenger | Posted 10/22/2008 11:25:11 PM | message detail
Well, it's not "Last Name SFF". It's more like "Name Recognition"
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/22/2008 11:27:38 PM | message detail
On a slightly different note...

Who do we all have for Vincent/Gordon/Scorpion/Falco? I'm a big worried about my Vincent > Scorpy pick.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/22/2008 11:32:57 PM | message detail
I'm thinking Vince/Falco.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
creativename | Posted 10/22/2008 11:37:17 PM | message detail
Ganon will hold up fine to Samus. I think the better question would be if Vincent will be able to take advantage, not Frog.

No way we see Frog beat out Ganon, I was not implying that. And obviously Ganon should do fine relative to Samus.

What I'm wondering is though, will they LFF each other? Thus causing Nightmare to overperform? (and maybe Frog too, though with Frog it's tough to say anything)
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voltch | Posted 10/22/2008 11:41:31 PM | message detail
wait,so is this a MM9 boost or Capcom ain't getting SFF'D.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/23/2008 12:24:42 AM | message detail
Mega Man X HELLLL YEAAAH
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 12:58:14 AM | message detail
And that's 3 updates for Mario and Zelda.

Well, not really I guess for Zelda. Kip managed to tie her on that last one.

Still, time for 2 comebacks?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/23/2008 1:02:00 AM | message detail
Marios started his comeback
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 1:02:12 AM | message detail
Yep. Comeback time!

Let`s go Zelda! Time to take back the lead, Mario!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/23/2008 1:04:15 AM | message detail
im surprised hes started so early, I didnt expect him to start a comeback till 6-9
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transience | Posted 10/23/2008 1:06:14 AM | message detail
oh Mega Man, you predictable three hour wonder.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/23/2008 1:06:41 AM | message detail
and X gains 22, and I'm off to bed now on that note
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Lopen | Posted 10/23/2008 1:06:46 AM | message detail
Heh, someone said:

"Mega Man has the Chrono Trigger trends of go strong 4 hours and die"

Right on time, I guess! *checks update* Then again, maybe, not.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby.
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 1:08:22 AM | message detail
Yep. Falling off right on time at the 4 hour mark.

Then again, that was a nice update for X, so maybe he doesn`t follow regular Mega Man`s trends.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/23/2008 1:12:59 AM | message detail
and hes back to gaining now, seems like it was just a weird thign that happened
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/23/2008 1:17:00 AM | message detail
24 vote gain and hes back to building the lead so I can REALLY go to bed without worrying about a mario comeback now >_>
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 1:22:11 AM | message detail
Well, at least Zelda`s doing something about Kipz!
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greatone10 | Posted 10/23/2008 1:28:37 AM | message detail
*sees poll for the first time*

Well, everything looks pretty normal. The Kipz is ahead of Zelda, but I kind of expected tha...HOLY CRAP that's not Mario leading!
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/23/2008 1:52:51 AM | message detail
Whoo Zelda!

Any chance she actually does comeback here?
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transience | Posted 10/23/2008 2:06:06 AM | message detail
I'd put money on it.
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