GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 607
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/22/2008 8:15:16 PM | message detail |
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MUD K- oh god I can't do it, die infernal hellspawn ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/22/2008 8:15:37 PM | message detail |
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SUPER FIGHTING ROBOT! MEGA MAN (X)! --- It has War, ExTha, and Crasty insulting each other as hedgehogs while being vaguely about your boobs. What did you expect. - Shadow The ExTha |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/22/2008 8:28:36 PM | message detail |
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Match XXXVI: Mario vs. Zelda vs. Mega Man X vs. Mudkip Last Round: Mario – 40.47% Zelda – 24.58% Knuckles the Echidna – 20.90% Fei Fong Wong – 14.05% Looks like Zelda was able to avoid SFF altogether and wasn’t affected by LFF enough to let Knuckles squeeze by. Some people are calling for Mario’s head after this performance, but he did have two strong characters as his opponents and the rest of the noble nine didn’t look too hot in their performances. Besides if anyone performed badly it was Knuckles, this format is either really killing them or we are in for a big surprise once this format goes one vs. one. Mega Man X – 44.50% Mudkip – 30.26% Lloyd Irving – 16.58% Tom Nook – 8.65% With Mega Man X’s contest debut he puts up a performance that is just under what Mega Man was expected to get and to me that was a good performance. With the joke characters getting stronger Mudkip was able to take over 30% of the votes and he now has a chance to use the power of joke characters to steal second. Also what happened to Tom Nook, he was able to defeat Zelos quite easily last year and yet gets almost doubled by Lloyd? Analysis: Hopefully I can get full points today though given what has happened I’m not sure whether or not that will happen. Three characters are Nintendo, one could be considered to have a Nintendo fanbase, one is a joke character, one is a strong character who avoided SFF, but not necessarily LFF and another is an untested character who could be a near-elite. Maybe this match isn’t so simple. Mario should have no problems getting first. He’s probably the most favoured Nintendo character in the poll and while his performance could be considered as underwhelming like Link Mario will prove why he is considered to be one of the strongest characters in the bracket. Mario will probably look bad compare to our expectations because for every match he’s in a Nintendo character will be there with him. Mega Man X is the favourite to come in second. After Mudkip had settled Mega Man X was able to perform an impressive performance and while the debate of which Mega Man is stronger continues we can defiantly say that X did not bomb the contest. While he probably has a slight Nintendo backing he will be the odd-man out in this poll and if Mario gets his with a lot of LFF Mega Man X could sneak into first, though in my opinion I think that will be unlikely. With the joke characters getting a boost Mudkip could use the difficulty for him to lose percent to his advantage. While Mudkip hasn’t displayed any constant percent in the three matches he has been in given the competition 25%, his lowest score in the three matches may be enough to sneak into second. 4chan will rallying for the guy early on and this could turn out the same way as it did for round 2 last year. Zelda also has an outside chance of advancing given that she wasn’t SFF into the ground last round. Zelda is also considered to be a near-elite and after watching X’s performance last round I’d say they are really close in strength. The only thing stopping this from becoming a debated match is Mario will be LFF Zelda making her lose most of her advantage. If X can be LFF slightly and be a little overrated from last round Zelda could sneak the win which will catch 95% of the guru off guard. The only thing for sure is that Mario is going to get first and even that could be debatable. I still think X who is the odd character will advance over Nintendo joke character. Mudkip will take the lead at first so it will be interesting to see what he can do with that lead. charmander6000’s Bracket: Mario > Mega Man X charmander6000’s Prediction: Mario – 31.63%, Mega Man X – 26.53%, Mudkip – 25.53%, Zelda – 16.31% --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 101/144 Today's Match: Bowser > Luigi |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/22/2008 8:32:28 PM | message detail |
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IMO, Zelda's out of the running. She got "Celda'd", and that will likely cost her a lot of her appeal points. --- Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM |
| PegasusLover123 | Posted 10/22/2008 8:37:44 PM | message detail |
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Was Wind Waker really that bad a Zelda game to you guys? Also i don't see how LFF comes into factor for Zelda and X in this case. --- BC: 0774-7368-9787 name: EDS "Casual player" so dont count me in for no item matches. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/22/2008 8:38:15 PM | message detail |
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PegasusLover123 (#005) Its not that it was a bad game... but Celda pics suck. Just look at Cloud/Link in 2003 for proof of that. --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/22/2008 8:38:23 PM | message detail |
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So how long does Mudkip stay in first till? I'm going to go with 5 hours. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 101/144 Today's Match: Bowser > Luigi |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/22/2008 8:39:49 PM | message detail |
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Mudkip stays in first. All match. --- CB7 Score: 110/144 http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/22/2008 8:40:31 PM | message detail |
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I say 2-3 hours max. 4chan doesnt have the patience for more then that --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/22/2008 8:42:47 PM | message detail |
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No, Megaman wouldn't capitalize on this: he still lost to Samus last
year despite it being the sprite round and Yoshi being in the poll.
Sure, he got fairly close, but Mario is way better than Samus at
Nintendo SFF. X's performance in round 1 was hardly impressive, also:
he didn't beat Mudkip by nearly as much as Luigi did last year despite
Luigi having Pit and Tingle weighing him down. You have to remember that Yoshi affected Mega Man as well, unless you think that their 2005 match was legit or something. --- I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/22/2008 8:43:25 PM | message detail |
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Wind Waker had the picture stuff which is like the best side-quest in zelda history woo sailing --- Moltar Status: augh Luigi/Liquid/Bowser/Phoenix - Bracket: Luigi > Bowser - Vote: Liquid (103/144) |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/22/2008 8:45:15 PM | message detail |
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Master Moltar (#011) I loved that sidequest! --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/22/2008 8:45:24 PM | message detail |
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Wind Waker had the picture stuff which is like the best side-quest in zelda history woo sailing Ugh sailing. Almost 85% of the darned game is sailing, sailing, sailing. And don't get me started on the Triforce Hunt. Those two factors really kill its replayability for me. --- Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/22/2008 8:45:39 PM | message detail |
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Then again Wind Waker is my favorite Zelda game, so take that with a grain of salt <_< --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| Lopen | Posted 10/22/2008 8:47:28 PM | message detail |
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Mudkip managed to stay in first... what... three hours against Ganondorf and Luigi? I doubt he can even stay above Mario for 10 minutes. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby. Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/22/2008 8:50:27 PM | message detail |
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don't worry zelda i'll support you and your bad picness --- Moltar Status: augh Mario/Zelda/MMX/Mudkip - Bracket: Mario > MMX - Vote: Zelda (105/152) |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/22/2008 8:50:55 PM | message detail |
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True or False: Zelda would do better with her CDi pic then this? --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/22/2008 8:51:06 PM | message detail |
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You have to remember that Yoshi affected Mega Man as well, unless you think that their 2005 match was legit or something. Exactly, if MM SFF'd Yoshi that much, how is he going to escape SFF (or at least LFF) from Mario? --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 108/148 --- T-297 (81 way) Bracket: Luigi > Bowser --- Vote: Bowser |
| Lopen | Posted 10/22/2008 8:52:01 PM | message detail |
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False. Come on, now, even that pic's badness has limits. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby. Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/22/2008 8:54:02 PM | message detail |
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Well, this match is going to suck for me. I like how Zelda will hold up
to Mario and Mudkip won't do him any favors, but I'm no longer on the
idea of MMX > MM and Nintendo-LFF will kill Mario here. Maybe...but
I think I made a bad pick with MMX > Mario! --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/22/2008 8:54:49 PM | message detail |
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True. Zelda would get joke votes with a CD-i pic. --- It has War, ExTha, and Crasty insulting each other as hedgehogs while being vaguely about your boobs. What did you expect. - Shadow The ExTha |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/22/2008 8:55:08 PM | message detail |
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HaRRicH (#020) Don't give up hope! BELIEVE IT! --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| dlcb1 | Posted 10/22/2008 8:55:52 PM | message detail |
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Mudkip managed to stay in first... what... three hours against Ganondorf and Luigi? I doubt he can even stay above Mario for 10 minutes. He stayed in first for six hours. Yeah, it surprised me too. Anyway, I'll give Mudkip a half hour. The level of competition is far greater this time. --- HMMMmmmMMMMMmmmmm............... |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/22/2008 8:56:19 PM | message detail |
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True or False: Zelda would do better with her CDi pic then this? True. --- Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/22/2008 8:56:47 PM | message detail |
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time for some rage --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2008 8:57:27 PM | message detail |
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With jokes, the level of competition isn't what matters - it's how
close all of the competition is to one another. Still, I don't have
terribly much faith in Mudkip for some reason (then again, I said that
last round!). --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/22/2008 8:58:16 PM | message detail |
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Mario, X and Zelda are pretty close in strength and have similar
fanbases. If Mudkip can't keep the lead for at least an hour I will be
surprised. So anyone know if 4chan is hyping for the match? --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 101/144 Today's Match: Bowser > Luigi |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/22/2008 8:58:24 PM | message detail |
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Round 2 Division 2- Semifinal 2 Mario Mario the plumber is just your average Joe Six Pack Zelda Poor thing, always thrown up against the upper echelon of Nintendo Mega Man X He proved he's legit last round, now will he make the splash we've been waiting for? Mudkip RAGE!! Analysis: An interesting little match that certainly has the potential for surprises. First of all, we can rule Zelda out of doing anything here. She held up well enough last round, but that was against 2 weaklings. Now voters have Mudkip and X to vote for as well as Mario, so I expect Zelda to get buried again like she did last year. Mario is also pretty much guarenteed first here, although X certainly has somewhat of a chance. Though I doubt it since Mega Man himself couldn't beat Samus last year, and we all know Mario > Samus and Yoshi > Zelda. The interesting part comes with X and Mudkip. There was a nice comfortable buffer between the two last round, but now we're throwing in Mr. Nintendo, and we've seen plenty of evidence of Mega Man/Nintendo overlap (Link/Mega Man and Mario/Zero most notably). If X is significantly hurt by Mario/Zelda, there definitely is a chance for Mudkip to squeak by. I think X can pull it off though. He was far enough ahead of Mudkip, and Zelda will be getting SFF'd so badly that this shouldn't be too hard. Keep in mind that Mudkip couldn't even advance with Luigi/Ganondorf SFF last year, and I'd probably take X over those 2 clowns and he'll be getting hurt a lot less than those 2 were. TuRtLe's Prediction: Mario 34%, X 29%, Mudkip 26%, Zelda 11% TuRtLe's Bracket: Mario > X TuRtLe's Vote: X --- I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/22/2008 8:58:50 PM | message detail |
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methinks the level of competition would raise the interest level. I mean, it's Mario. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2008 8:59:59 PM | message detail |
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Also, though it doesn't really need to be said - this is a damn strong pack. Kinda weird considering what we've had up to now. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/22/2008 9:00:12 PM | message detail |
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Not this again.... --- I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg |
| Xcarvenger | Posted 10/22/2008 9:00:17 PM | message detail |
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Mario 25% 1 Zelda 0% 0 Mega Man X 50% 2 Mudkip 25% 1 TOTAL VOTES 4 --- Kweh! Kweh!!! --> http://backloggery.com/main.php?user=xcarvenger For all your board 8 needs: www.board8.wikia.com |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/22/2008 9:00:17 PM | message detail |
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Mario 33.33% 8 Zelda 20.83% 5 Mega Man X 25% 6 Mudkip 20.83% 5 TOTAL VOTES 24 RAGE --- Moltar Status: augh Mario/Zelda/MMX/Mudkip - Bracket: Mario > MMX - Vote: Zelda (105/152) |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/22/2008 9:00:22 PM | message detail |
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Mario 31.25% 10 Zelda 18.75% 6 Mega Man X 28.13% 9 Mudkip 21.88% 7 TOTAL VOTES 32 goooooooooo zerda --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/22/2008 9:00:29 PM | message detail |
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c'mon X do this --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| Janus5000 | Posted 10/22/2008 9:00:33 PM | message detail |
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Mario 30.43% 14 Zelda 19.57% 9 Mega Man X 26.09% 12 Mudkip 23.91% 11 TOTAL VOTES 46 IT'S FREAKIN' MARIO --- http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg Stay a while and breathe me in. |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/22/2008 9:00:38 PM | message detail |
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heh, brackets! looks bad for Mudkip either way though. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/22/2008 9:00:39 PM | message detail |
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Mario 32.14% 9 Zelda 17.86% 5 Mega Man X 25% 7 Mudkip 25% 7 TOTAL VOTES 28 It's-a me Mario --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 105/152 Today's Match: Mario > Mega Man X |
| RockMFR 5 | Posted 10/22/2008 9:00:42 PM | message detail |
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go X go! --- Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0 The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2008 9:00:51 PM | message detail |
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Wow X is close at the start. Brackets, or something more...? --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/22/2008 9:01:22 PM | message detail |
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Karma Hunter (#040) Its MEGA MAN! Thats whats more --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/22/2008 9:01:23 PM | message detail |
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The amazing Mudkip --- Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Lopen | Posted 10/22/2008 9:01:24 PM | message detail |
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LOL "Static Mudkip" --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 2 - Raiden/Big Boss/Kirby. Target: 48%. Kain Stronger than Kirby & Big Boss!?!? Believe |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/22/2008 9:01:28 PM | message detail |
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Mario 31.88% 102 Zelda 17.19% 55 Mega Man X 29.38% 94 Mudkip 21.56% 69 TOTAL VOTES 320 Let's-a go! --- Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2008 9:01:28 PM | message detail |
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holy --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| The_Ocelot2 | Posted 10/22/2008 9:01:33 PM | message detail |
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X gon give it to ya Mario --- Go Ducks Go! http://img.imgcake.com/fallout_3.jpg |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/22/2008 9:01:36 PM | message detail |
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I love the Mega Man Board vote --- I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/22/2008 9:01:39 PM | message detail |
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zelda beating mudkip gamefaqs doing this right tonight --- Moltar Status: augh Mario/Zelda/MMX/Mudkip - Bracket: Mario > MMX - Vote: Zelda (105/152) |
| MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/22/2008 9:01:47 PM | message detail |
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Mudkip is below Zelda! --- Demyx is better than Axel. |
| Janus5000 | Posted 10/22/2008 9:01:48 PM | message detail |
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Mudkip... in last? What in the --- http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg Stay a while and breathe me in. |
