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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 606

Yesmar | Posted 10/22/2008 7:41:13 AM | message detail
I wonder how "static" Phoenix is? man, he could have been amazing with fortunate bracket placement. put him in Duke's group and he might have escaped the entire division. Phoenix is going to absolutely die in the daytime but this is still pretty interesting after the beating he took in R2 last year.

I doubt Phoenix is static enough to make a difference. Has 20% of GameFAQS even played his game? He only got 10% in the second round last year.
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""--Banjo
charmander6000 | Posted 10/22/2008 7:47:07 AM | message detail
As of the 10:40 update

Liquid - 16632 - 50.00%
Luigi - 14696 - 46.91%
Bowser - 12007 - 41.93%
Phoenix - 11208 - 40.26%

Luigi - 14696 - 50.00%
Bowser - 12007 - 44.96%
Phoenix - 11208 - 43.27%

Bowser - 12007 - 50.00%
Phoenix - 11208 - 48.28%

Using a constant Phoenix and Liquid, Bowser is beating Luigi 52.70% - 47.30%. I'm going to assume that Phoenix will continue to drop like a rock before discussing rSFF.

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 101/144 Today's Match: Bowser > Luigi
HaRRicH | Posted 10/22/2008 9:54:41 AM | message detail
So...replace Bowser with Yoshi and Liquid with Raiden today. What happens?
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Paris | Posted 10/22/2008 9:54:48 AM | message detail
Finally, I get a match right. And it's a debated one too. This contest has been another disappointment for me as far as my bracket goes, but it's the small victories that count, right?
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Questions concerning my username and/or identity will be ignored
ffmasterjose | Posted 10/22/2008 10:04:47 AM | message detail
Liquid > Mario in the Div Finals

book it

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107/144 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Luigi > Liquid Snake | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0
Majin Lou | Posted 10/22/2008 10:53:12 AM | message detail
Now that's just crazy talk. Awesome, but crazy talk.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/22/2008 11:20:57 AM | message detail
A spectacularly pathetic performance from an increasingly pathetic company.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/22/2008 11:41:38 AM | message detail
To be fair, both Luigi and Bowser are hurting each other... And Bowser's the one looking pathetic here.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
The Mana Sword | Posted 10/22/2008 11:47:22 AM | message detail
Get ready for a 3000 vote comeback, boys.
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Kleenex - Not on his computer.
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/22/2008 12:16:04 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/22/2008 12:16:37 PM | message detail
So...Luigi>Mario next round.

Make it happen.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
charmander6000 | Posted 10/22/2008 12:31:33 PM | message detail
With everything going on I wouldn't be surprised if the result was MMX > Mudkip tomorrow.

Also using Phoenix and Liquid's last round performances Bowser is still slightly ahead of Luigi. I guess indirectly Luigi = Bowser?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 101/144 Today's Match: Bowser > Luigi
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/22/2008 12:32:22 PM | message detail
Bowser is stronger then Luigi, this is just rsff. Since mario fans would more the likely vote for luigi over bowser if head to head but bowser is stronger overall
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/22/2008 12:35:03 PM | message detail
So, some ideas about a few Nintendo characters:

Inside the Mario fanbase: Yoshi > Luigi > Bowser
Outside the Mario fanbase: Bowser > Luigi > Yoshi

Inside the Nintendo fanbase: Link > Mario >>> Samus
Outside the Nintendo fanbase: Link >> Samus >>> Mario
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 108/148 --- T-297 (81 way)
Bracket: Luigi > Bowser --- Vote: Bowser
charmander6000 | Posted 10/22/2008 12:35:53 PM | message detail
Bowser is only expected to get about 51% as of now, unless we get another voter shift I see those two being equal. I guess Kirby showed that to us in 2005 and 2006.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 101/144 Today's Match: Bowser > Luigi
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/22/2008 12:38:15 PM | message detail
Bowser (2006c) VS Luigi (2006c)

Bowser has a strength of 32.44.
Luigi has a strength of 30.81.

Bowser wins with 52.51% of the vote!
A win of 6,323 with 125,845 total votes cast.


The last time we got an accurate read of these two
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/22/2008 12:45:58 PM | message detail
Try to reason it in whatever way you guys want, but there's no way I take Bowser over Luigi in a 1v1 right now or next year. It really does seem like the guy gave everything he had against Sephiroth and Snake in 2005 and then just died.

This is some day vote, by the way; Liquid is holding like a freakin champ. I'd be enjoying this a lot more if the performance didn't come from the one MGS character I actually dislike.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITS
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
The Mana Sword | Posted 10/22/2008 12:46:54 PM | message detail
Raiden will do the same in his match!

Big Boss is done.
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Kleenex - Not on his computer.
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/22/2008 12:47:20 PM | message detail
Eh, Liquid's day vote would be more impressive if we hadn't already seen what LFFd character do to each other's trends. It's still good for an MGS character, but not that good.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/22/2008 12:53:11 PM | message detail
So...is there any new-found worth in the Mario-polls, or are people looking for other evidence as signs of this happening?

Remember that Luigi/Yoshi and Yoshi/Bowser both happened BEFORE the site shift in 2005. It's not impossible to think that the Mario pecking order changed along with that shift. After all, Mario boosted massively that year, and the only other character whose boost can really compare that year is...well...Luigi's. Bowser's looked like crap the last three contests. This result isn't a coincidence. It's been building up since 2006. It's not that surprising that Luigi was the favorite to advance over Bowser here. After all, just about everything that's happened in the last three contests has pointed to it.

I'm not surprised to see Liquid > Luigi, but I'm surprised to see that Phoenix is doing very well (closer to Bowser than Bowser is to Luigi? AWESOME). I wish I had been here to see him beating Bowser. I would've voted for him, but I figured Luigi needed it more (I don't look at poll results before I vote). When I voted, Bowser and Phoenix were nearly even and my jaw dropped. Go Wrighto!

Also, what the heck, Ocelot?! Argh, I still say he fell victim to REFAQs! He's stronger than last year! Somehow this will work!

And at least Liquid will finally get a pretty good picture, even if it's those MGS polygons. Still, it can't be worse than this, and I'd take it over Solid Snake's sprite any day! At least they're recognizable!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/22/2008 12:54:58 PM | message detail
R3 pics won't affect Liquid at all. If he can do this well while looking AWFUL, I doubt anything short of Solid **** 2.0 would make him do worse.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/22/2008 12:59:35 PM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Marth | The Duke | Altair | Lucario
EBV | 29.46% | 29.40% | 25.44% | 15.69% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 26.19% | 31.17% | 27.75% | 14.88% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 21.97% | 34.64% | 29.09% | 14.30% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 21.91% | 31.95% | 30.71% | 15.43% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 21.70% | 33.27% | 30.76% | 14.27% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 24.09% | 28.01% | 31.37% | 16.53% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 24.09% | 28.87% | 32.09% | 14.95% | (22:00-24:00)

Awesome board vote for Marth, great Power Hour, and then...huge dropoff. Didn't even recover during the morning vote either. Took until the ASV to start getting a decent percentage again. The Duke had a great night vote and early afternoon vote, but the last 7 and a half hours were pretty brutal for him. It wasn't even Altair spiking (though he basically did go up the rest of the match, just like his first round match and just like Kratos). Marth and Lucario helped take away some of the Duke's votes as well. It'll be interesting to see the next match because Duke is going up against three day characters (Well, Zack can be both, depending on the match).

Yesterday's stats:

Duke Nukem – 50.00%
Altair – 49.53%
Marth – 42.70%
Lucario – 32.96%

Division 1, Bottom Half

Marth – 50.00%
Duke Nukem – 47.19%
Altair – 46.75%
Niko Bellic – 43.44%
Kefka – 42.18%
Lucario – 31.79%
Isaac – 30.55%
Guybrush Threepwood – 22.65%

Maybe a bit controversial, but I decided to give Marth the benefit of the doubt and put him on top. After all, he was clearly LFF'd yesterday and he beat Duke handily the first time. Not too much interesting here, stats-wise. Most of the third match goes on top (along with Altair), and the other match goes way below.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/22/2008 1:01:41 PM | message detail
Wow, Lucario. The stats underepresent him some, but...wow.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/22/2008 1:02:59 PM | message detail
Also, anyone still willing to take Bowser > Ganondorf at this point?

By the way, for those of you worrying about Frog sneaking through Samus/Ganondorf LFF, I think you need to worry about Nightmare, too, and maybe worry about him more than Frog.

I'm impressed with how well Phoenix Wright is holding up from round 1 to round 2. This might make Bowser look a bit inflated with the adjusted stats. I'll see tomorrow though.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/22/2008 1:04:04 PM | message detail
Why in the world would anyone take Bowser>Ganondorf at this point?

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/22/2008 1:04:48 PM | message detail
By the way, for those of you worrying about Frog sneaking through Samus/Ganondorf LFF, I think you need to worry about Nightmare, too, and maybe worry about him more than Frog.

This. After all, Samus has proven incapable of using SFF to her advantage.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/22/2008 1:08:27 PM | message detail
Why in the world would anyone take Bowser>Ganondorf at this point?

No one SHOULD. It was just a heavily debated match for a long time, especially after the Villains Contest. People thought Bowser could maybe rSFF his way to a victory because, after all, he HAD to be better with SFF than Ganondorf!

Luigi says "ROLF"
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/22/2008 1:08:58 PM | message detail
Primarily Smash characters (like Prince Marth, Ike, Sandbag, etc.) tend to not do terribly well in the morning but very well afterschool. Although even morning powerhouses like Luigi here seem to not be doing as well as they used to - Luigi's best morning hour in this match is hardly better than what he's pulling in now.
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Mustache...and green...
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/22/2008 1:09:38 PM | message detail
Luigi says "ROLF"

And I say... Oh, forget it.

*Explodes*
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/22/2008 1:11:09 PM | message detail
Yeah, Mario Bros. and co.'s day vote hasn't really been that great this year at all. Bowser's first round match is the only exception, probably due to how horrible his competition was with the day vote.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2008 1:11:47 PM | message detail
okay suckas who wants sum

1v1

Bowser v Ryu (or heck Luigi/Yoshi v Ryu)
Shadow v Wario
Duke Nukem v Alucard

and now for my personal new favorite

Solidus Snake v Frog
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/22/2008 1:14:57 PM | message detail
Luigi=Ryu>Yoshi=Bowser

Shadow>Wario

Duke Nukem>Alucard

Solidus Snake>Frog (aw yeah)

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/22/2008 1:15:03 PM | message detail
Ryu doubles any of the three Nintendo guys
Duke thinks Alucard is a hot chick and acts accordingly while everyone pukes
Solidus and Frog stay dead even until the end, testing which infamous fanbase can rally/cheat more effectively. gamefaqs explodes
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITS
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
red sox 777 | Posted 10/22/2008 1:25:57 PM | message detail
By the way, for those of you worrying about Frog sneaking through Samus/Ganondorf LFF, I think you need to worry about Nightmare, too, and maybe worry about him more than Frog.

Certainly, I think Nightmare has a very real chance there; he got over 30% of Samus/Nightmare votes in round 1, substantially higher than Frog could manage in either match last year (and more than what Frog could do in 2005, for that matter). I'm not sure what to draw from that considering the general disappointment of Noble Niners this year and the Brawl Deboost. Of the 3, I'd prefer Frog to win by far, and it would be awesome for Ganon to lose to Frog after having already lost to Magus, even though we considered him out of their league for years. For what it's worth, if we suppose Frog or Nightmare get 30% on Samus 1v1, and Ganon takes 40% of Samus's votes but adds nothing to team Nintendo, Ganon ends up at 28%, Frog or Nightmare at 30%, and Samus at 42%.

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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 108/148 --- T-297 (81 way)
Bracket: Luigi > Bowser --- Vote: Bowser
hailEC | Posted 10/22/2008 1:26:48 PM | message detail
ok finally back at school. unfortunately today's match went exactly as I expected after R1. Well... exactly as expected as far as 1st-4th is concerned, the percentages are kinda crazy. Bowser almost being beaten out by Phoenix is just classic, and I guess we can finally put to rest where Bowser stands on the Mario totem poll of characters who matter.

Please tell me no one would still take Bowser > Luigi 1v1 after today.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
red sox 777 | Posted 10/22/2008 1:27:24 PM | message detail
Solidus and Frog stay dead even until the end, testing which infamous fanbase can rally/cheat more effectively. gamefaqs explodes

We've done this before, and Frog won outright the second night vote against both Liquid and Solid Snake!
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 108/148 --- T-297 (81 way)
Bracket: Luigi > Bowser --- Vote: Bowser
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/22/2008 1:27:40 PM | message detail
EC, Phoenix was actually beating Bowser from about 2 AM-7 AM
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hailEC | Posted 10/22/2008 1:29:16 PM | message detail
haha what? I didn't even check the poll updater. That's absolutely ridiculous, though I guess looking at the current percentages it shouldn't come as a surprise thanks to their trends. Man Bowser is so hilariously pathetic now it's awesome.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/22/2008 1:32:35 PM | message detail
why is it awesome

i'm gonna tell him to eat everyone else in this poll
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITS
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
hailEC | Posted 10/22/2008 1:34:19 PM | message detail
but then phoenix will be all like "hold it" and liquid will squash him with metal gear rex and luigi would be like "lol"

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all hail ec your lord and savior
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/22/2008 1:34:40 PM | message detail
I'm not sure what to draw from that considering the general disappointment of Noble Niners this year and the Brawl Deboost.

1. People probably wisened up about the format this year and realized that they were in no real danger in round 1, so they voted for one of the weaker competitors instead.
2. This Brawl deboost theory needs to stop. I've seen no hard evidence supporting it, and if anything, I've seen evidence to the contrary. Would Captain Falcon have beaten Kratos Aurion if Brawl DID cause a deboost? I think not. Also, Arthas/Ike. If Brawl caused its characters to weaken, Ike wouldn't have gotten as close to Arthas as he did.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
hailEC | Posted 10/22/2008 1:36:24 PM | message detail
No one actually thinks Brawl caused the de-boost and you're lack of perception is hilarious.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2008 1:39:30 PM | message detail
Brawl didn't cause the de-boost it IS the de-boost IMHO

Nintendlol
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/22/2008 1:39:49 PM | message detail
No one actually thinks Brawl caused the de-boost and you're lack of perception is hilarious.

Troll.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
BDawg | Posted 10/22/2008 1:40:18 PM | message detail
More like "Wii suck".
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Should I start running now?
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/22/2008 1:41:00 PM | message detail
I know a dozen people who plan to sell their shares of Nintendo because of this match.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITS
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2008 1:41:32 PM | message detail
At this point *I* would beat Mario in a poll
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Gatarix | Posted 10/22/2008 1:42:54 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2008 1:41:32 PM | message detail
At this point *I* would beat Mario in a poll


best poll ever

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/22/2008 1:43:00 PM | message detail
Huh... I wonder how Obama would fare if we switched him with Mudkip tomorrow.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITS
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MasterMoltar | Posted 10/22/2008 1:43:25 PM | message detail
after playing brawl i never want to vote for another nintendo character again

sakuraiiiiiiiiiiiii
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master
moltar
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