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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 605

Shast One | Posted 10/21/2008 11:33:30 AM | message detail
... of course, the night is young, the kids haven't come home from school yet to vote for the Smash Bros characters.. shoot.. curse logic.. I don't really care what happens, just as long as Duke advances. Staying in 1st would just be extra special
Tohoya | Posted 10/21/2008 11:36:56 AM | message detail

Flawed logic. Nintendo is Nintendo - and it doesn't hurt that it's always been the most severe form of SFF out there.


I remain unconvinced of Pokemon/Nintendo LFF. They share few properties gameplay wise, and the system Pokemon has been most popular on, the gameboy ones, are much less likely to foster a love of classic Nintendo characters like owning an NES, SNES, and N64 through your gaming career would
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"There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20
red sox 777 | Posted 10/21/2008 11:42:26 AM | message detail
Brawl doesn't have to have added anything to Marth for Lucario to LFF him as long as a good portion of his Melee fans are also Brawl fans- it just needs to have boosted Lucario, which it probably did.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 108/140 --- T-215 (58 way)
Bracket: Kefka > Marth --- Vote: Marth
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2008 11:48:11 AM | message detail
I remain unconvinced of Pokemon/Nintendo LFF. They share few properties gameplay wise, and the system Pokemon has been most popular on, the gameboy ones, are much less likely to foster a love of classic Nintendo characters like owning an NES, SNES, and N64 through your gaming career would

Then you're wrong. We've got six years of evidence illustrating the ubiquity of Nintendo SFF of ALL stripes. When you've got an entity so powerful it reaches into that of properties of other companies - *cough*SONIC*cough* - this goes without even saying.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/21/2008 11:51:08 AM | message detail
Don't forget Luigi and Pikachu SFF'd pretty bad last year.
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voltch | Posted 10/21/2008 11:51:27 AM | message detail
One thing i'm wondering about is if Duke's strength is coming from jokes then my god L-Block could be going on another snowball effect.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
red sox 777 | Posted 10/21/2008 11:52:26 AM | message detail
Hmm....Altair is cutting Duke and it isn't even 3 yet. Duke's lead is higher than Magus's, but so are the percentages Duke/Altair are playing with, so Altair just needs about the same percentage shift Sandbag got. He's probably done, as Duke is no Magus....
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 108/140 --- T-215 (58 way)
Bracket: Kefka > Marth --- Vote: Marth
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/21/2008 11:53:44 AM | message detail

red sox 777 (#307)
Hmm....Altair is cutting Duke and it isn't even 3 yet. Duke's lead is higher than Magus's, but so are the percentages Duke/Altair are playing with, so Altair just needs about the same percentage shift Sandbag got. He's probably done, as Duke is no Magus....



Altair just cut duke by 31... thats looking like sandbag types of early cuts though.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/21/2008 11:54:33 AM | message detail
Except 1 vote cuts following 31 won't do it.
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BDawg | Posted 10/21/2008 11:58:33 AM | message detail
Altair is gonna look better but I don't see anything significant happening. Best case scenario would be pulling an Ike style comeback where you shave off 1k+ but it's still not enough.
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Should I start running now?
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/21/2008 11:59:52 AM | message detail
If this was a CT character altair would be the favorite to win atm lol
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/21/2008 11:59:56 AM | message detail
We'll see if Altair has any chance in a few minutes. Marth went from 100 down to 4300 up with the weekend day vote on Duke last round, for what it's worth.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 108/140 --- T-215 (58 way)
Bracket: Kefka > Marth --- Vote: Marth
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/21/2008 12:01:32 PM | message detail
Hah Lucario nearly cut Marth that last upadte
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/21/2008 12:03:33 PM | message detail
Altair could come back if this was Kefka.

But Duke ain't no Kefka
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
red sox 777 | Posted 10/21/2008 12:05:19 PM | message detail
Down 20. It begins? Altair needs to average 23.86 per update to come back.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 108/140 --- T-215 (58 way)
Bracket: Kefka > Marth --- Vote: Marth
vcharon | Posted 10/21/2008 12:30:51 PM | message detail
Nah, Altair is done here. Duke is still getting wild and erratic updates.
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:>
MasterMoltar | Posted 10/21/2008 12:37:37 PM | message detail
good lord duke holding up fairly well with the start of the ASV? what a beast

we got 2 nintendo here and a xbox character what in the world

these voters make less and less sense every day
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master
moltar
Shast One | Posted 10/21/2008 12:37:49 PM | message detail
Duke's winning cuz the Smash Bros characters canceled eachother out. pretty much common sense. Altair being that close to a gaming icon is impressive by itself, and who's to say if Duke will keep the lead, but I hope he does. still haunted by Hogger catching up and surpassing Magus, such blasphemy

either way, Duke and Altair would get obliterated next round, unfortunately. If they slap "FF7" onto their pics, they might have a chance though
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/21/2008 12:43:16 PM | message detail
still haunted by Hogger catching up and surpassing Magus, such blasphemy

wut
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/21/2008 12:53:45 PM | message detail
and Sandbag beating Ramza was a travesty too
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Today's prediction: Altair 33.85% - Duke 25.99% - Martha 23.90% - Lolcario 16.26%
Status: Meh
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/21/2008 12:56:47 PM | message detail
This match makes me wonder just how badly Pikachu and Ike hurt each other. I thought it was a decent amount, but not that much, but Marth here is getting beat by Duke by 10% when he beat Duke by 3% last round.

We need to get Ike in next year.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/21/2008 12:58:25 PM | message detail
Wow, great performance by the Duke here. I'm impressed. I gotta wonder if the banner's helping him any though. There's really no way to tell, so it's just baseless speculation. Not like Altair proved himself to be a powerhouse. He just got a really weak fourpack and Marth is being held back.

I'm hesitant to call Zack a lock just because this contest has a habit of making no sense, but I'll definitely call him a heavy favorite at this point, especially with the sprite round coming up.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/21/2008 1:00:11 PM | message detail
Wow, great performance by the Duke here. I'm impressed. I gotta wonder if the banner's helping him any though. There's really no way to tell, so it's just baseless speculation. Not like Altair proved himself to be a powerhouse. He just got a really weak fourpack and Marth is being held back.

I'm hesitant to call Zack a lock just because this contest has a habit of making no sense, but I'll definitely call him a heavy favorite at this point, especially with the sprite round coming up.


I have to say the same. In fact the part about Altair not exactly being a powerhouse was my argument!
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/21/2008 1:03:10 PM | message detail

KamikazePotato (#321)
This match makes me wonder just how badly Pikachu and Ike hurt each other. I thought it was a decent amount, but not that much, but Marth here is getting beat by Duke by 10% when he beat Duke by 3% last round.

We need to get Ike in next year.



Fear the pokemon
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/21/2008 1:03:36 PM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | ZackFAQS | Wario | Link | Zidane
EBV | 23.31% | 11.89% | 49.85% | 14.95% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 23.29% | 11.45% | 51.82% | 13.45% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 26.11% | 10.69% | 49.27% | 13.93% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 23.51% | 11.65% | 52.08% | 12.77% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 24.24% | 10.67% | 52.41% | 12.67% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 22.76% | 10.24% | 56.33% | 10.67% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 24.61% | 9.07% | 55.46% | 10.86% | (22:00-24:00)

Man, where was this last time, Link? He decides to go to town with the ASV this time, pulling in over 56% of the vote on average. He even made the FFVII day vote look bad. Zack and Zidane look great at night (relatively speaking), and looks like Zidane got some board votage here. His day vote is awful stuff though, nearly lost it to massively SFF'd Wario.

Yesterday's stats:

Link – 50.00%
Zack Fair – 30.94%
Zidane Tribal – 18.56%
Wario – 16.58%

Division 1 Top Half Stats

Link – 50.00%
Zack Fair – 30.94%
Wario – 26.34%
Zidane Tribal – 22.56%
Shadow the Hedgehog – 20.30%
Cecil Harvey – 16.58%
Luke fon Fabre – 9.16%
Jade Curtiss – 7.25%

Gave Zidane his first round value on Link, and extrapolated Wario based off of Zack's performance yesterday. Wario will probably go up based on the next round, too, when Zack is SFF free. Wario's actually not lookin' THAT bad at this point.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/21/2008 1:07:17 PM | message detail
Um, Leonhart, what about the grades you never finished?
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
red sox 777 | Posted 10/21/2008 1:07:58 PM | message detail
Altair's cut a bit over 100 in the past hour- that's not nearly fast enough. So, Marth/Lucario LFF looks pretty significant, and that is another good sign for Liquid tomorrow, although I'll be cheering for Bowser. On Friday we have Samus/Ganon/Frog/Nightmare: can Samus/Ganon L/SFF hurt Ganon enough for Frog or Nightmare to upset him? Consider that Ganon failed to get 65% on Frog last round, with 2 other RPG characters in the poll. Replace KOS-MOS and Neku with Samus and Nightmare....do we have a chance at a close match?
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 108/140 --- T-215 (58 way)
Bracket: Kefka > Marth --- Vote: Marth
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/21/2008 1:09:15 PM | message detail
Um, Leonhart, what about the grades you never finished?

I'll get back to those on...Thursday. This week is pretty crazy for me here at school, so I'll get back to it when everything slows back down. Heh, this is basically the only time I have to be on all day.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 2: Sora, Fox McCloud, Yoshi
Gaddswell | Posted 10/21/2008 1:23:47 PM | message detail
So... If we keep Duke the same as last year...

How does Pre-Brawl Ike and Pre-Orange Box Gordon compare to everyone else in this 8-pack? How does Guybrush look this year compared to last year?

Post Orange Box Gordon would probably have 1st here, so I don't think a comparison with him is needed. >_>

And Ike > Marth now, for sure!
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Tohoya | Posted 10/21/2008 1:26:44 PM | message detail
Then you're wrong. We've got six years of evidence illustrating the ubiquity of Nintendo SFF of ALL stripes. When you've got an entity so powerful it reaches into that of properties of other companies - *cough*SONIC*cough* - this goes without even saying.

Sonic has a much better reason for Nintendo LFF, given his gameplay similarities to most of Nintendo's stars (platformers), his timeline similarity (retro gamers), system similarity (much of Sonic's strength comes from his 3D games, which were most popular on the Gamecube), and appeal similarity (mascots, if you will- I think it's somewhat similar to the badass LFF that people have been tossing around here, with Dante/Leon LFF being the most obvious).

Pokemon, meanwhile, has a very loose system correlation to most of Nintendo's stars, and a company correlation which has shown to mean jack compared to all the other correlations. Expecting Pokemon/Nintendo LFF is like expecting Ada/Amaterasu LFF- they share a weak system correlation and a company correlation.
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"There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2008 1:29:18 PM | message detail
Sonic has a much better reason for Nintendo LFF, given his gameplay similarities to most of Nintendo's stars (platformers), his timeline similarity (retro gamers), system similarity (much of Sonic's strength comes from his 3D games, which were most popular on the Gamecube), and appeal similarity (mascots, if you will- I think it's somewhat similar to the badass LFF that people have been tossing around here, with Dante/Leon LFF being the most obvious).

Pokemon, meanwhile, has a very loose system correlation to most of Nintendo's stars, and a company correlation which has shown to mean jack compared to all the other correlations. Expecting Pokemon/Nintendo LFF is like expecting Ada/Amaterasu LFF- they share a weak system correlation and a company correlation.


...show of hands. ANYONE else buy this in the slightest? I need to know who to ignore in the future.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
MnMZero | Posted 10/21/2008 1:29:49 PM | message detail
Expecting Pokemon/Nintendo LFF is like expecting Ada/Amaterasu LFF- they share a weak system correlation and a company correlation.

Kids like Pokemon. Kids like the rest of Nintendo as well.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/21/2008 1:31:24 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3246&num=4
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3277&num=4

Pokemon/Nintendo significant LFF was debatable before today. After today you're a moron for thinking otherwise.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Tohoya | Posted 10/21/2008 1:31:54 PM | message detail
Don't forget Luigi and Pikachu SFF'd pretty bad last year.

And Pikachu and Luigi are both in Smash Bros. This may seem like splitting hairs (since, after all, pretty much any of the strong Pokemon we'd be seeing would have made an appearance in Smash at some point), but remember that the point of contention is whether or not the Lucario/Marth LFF is Nintendo LFF generally or Smash LFF in particular.

Incidentally, if I'm right, Mewtwo and Charizard if he ever makes the contest should be much less susceptible to Nintendo SFF, since they derive more of their strength from the pokemon games, and Jiggly, if she ever makes it, should be much more so, since she derives most of her strength from Smash.
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"There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20
Tohoya | Posted 10/21/2008 1:33:08 PM | message detail
Pokemon/Nintendo significant LFF was debatable before today. After today you're a moron for thinking otherwise.

Smash LFF, not Nintendo.
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"There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/21/2008 1:35:32 PM | message detail
Tohoya, next you're gonna tell us that zelda and mario dont sff cuz they're different genres
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Tohoya | Posted 10/21/2008 1:49:47 PM | message detail
next you're gonna tell us that zelda and mario dont sff cuz they're different genres

Pokemon/Nintendo significant LFF was debatable before today. After today you're a moron for thinking otherwise.

People seem to have thought this quite reasonable, based, I'm assuming, on lines of thought similar to mine before today's result. I'm simply pointing out that Lucario and Marth have plenty of reason to overlap without a general Nintendo/Pokemon LFF because both derive a good part of their strength from Smash.
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"There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20
Tohoya | Posted 10/21/2008 1:59:38 PM | message detail
Me: Hey guys, Lucario is sapping Marth way more than we thought... he must be deriving more of his strength from Brawl than we thought!
You: Nah, it's Nintendo LFF
Me: Where have we seen evidence of simple Nintendo/Pokemon LFF outside the Smash Bros series?
You: It was debatable before today, but... *points at poll*
Me: *facepalm*

You don't see how this is circular logic?
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"There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/21/2008 2:05:21 PM | message detail
Altair is at 30% now!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2008 2:08:13 PM | message detail
We've already got obvious evidence of Nintendo/Pokemon SFF before this match anyway, by your metrics. Bowser/Mewtwo anyone? Ryu went from an 8% victory to a 2% victory in between rounds.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
HaRRicH | Posted 10/21/2008 2:12:21 PM | message detail
To be fair, the only non-SSB Pokemon we've seen are Nidoran F, Bidoof, and Mudkip...all of which got in as jokes and were largely treated as such. They would fit your case of not being severely SFF'd by Nintendo, but they're far more complicated than that too so they're not exactly fair to use. We have seen Mewtwo SFF Ness though, which would be the best example of seeing a nearly-unaffected-by-SSB Pokemon over/under-perform against another Nintendo character. In that regard, if Mewtwo is capable of SFF'ing, one would think Mewtwo could be SFF'd too. We probably would have seen/thought it last year if it wasn't for Toad, honestly.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2008 2:20:15 PM | message detail
What an awfully disappointing day vote for Marth. Ninty character gains are typically measured in whole percentages, not tenths of them.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/21/2008 2:22:25 PM | message detail
Just look at Lucario. Marth is getting his day vote crippled by him.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/21/2008 2:26:07 PM | message detail
And before someone makes the comparison to Ike's day vote, Ike's ridiculous ASV is partially derived from the FE fanbase, from which Marth has nothing.

It will be interesting to see Marth next year, though, after the DS remake of his game is released. Being a handheld game, it probably still won't put him up to Ike's level, but a decent boost is likely.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/21/2008 2:27:05 PM | message detail
And before someone makes the comparison to Ike's day vote, Ike's ridiculous ASV is partially derived from the FE fanbase, from which Marth has nothing.

It will be interesting to see Marth next year, though, after the DS remake of his game is released. Being a handheld game, it probably still won't put him up to Ike's level, but a decent boost is likely.


I have to agree.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
Gaddswell | Posted 10/21/2008 2:29:26 PM | message detail
We also saw Pikachu cripple Luigi's day vote against Dante last year. Luigi barely did anything in the morning then, and that would've been his strongest time.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/21/2008 2:30:39 PM | message detail
Hey, Marth has at least one vote from the Fire Emblem fanbase!

And I think the most noticeable thing Shadow Dragon will do is let Marth avoid getting crippled so easily by characters like DK and Lucario. Basically making his fanbase like him as a character rather than as a Smash proxy, rather than growing it significantly (nevermind he's a better character in Mystery book 2 but you couldn't remake that now could you Nintendo augh).
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Mustache...and green...
Tohoya | Posted 10/21/2008 2:31:52 PM | message detail
We've already got obvious evidence of Nintendo/Pokemon SFF before this match anyway, by your metrics. Bowser/Mewtwo anyone? Ryu went from an 8% victory to a 2% victory in between rounds.

I think factoring in Toad that goes from complete overlap of Nintendo/Pokemon fanbases to Mewtwo and Bowser overlapping slightly owing to Smash.

I'm not so sure that Mudkip and Bidoof are bad comparisons. Stats topic consensus is that they draw some strength from Pokemon games owing to their non-joke trends, right? Seems to me that the pokemon we're talking about are a composite of Brawl + pokemon strength, whereas Bidoof and Mudkip are a composite of joke + pokemon strength. If that's the case, if I'm right, we shouldn't see Mudkip/Nintendo LFF at all, but if everyone else is right, we should see at least a little bit (of course, if we do see no such LFF, another perfectly valid conclusion would be that Mudkip is solely a joke character).
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"There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/21/2008 2:32:19 PM | message detail
Marth just needs to have something to draw on besides SSB. The fact that he holds up worse against Lucario than Ike does against Pikachu is pretty telling.

Same goes for Ness. Come on Ninty, put EB on the VC already!

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/21/2008 2:41:05 PM | message detail
60 vote cut by altair

c'mon you can do this
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