GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 605
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| therealmnm | Posted 10/21/2008 7:01:17 PM | message detail |
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Well, Kirby did noticeably worse on Luigi than he did on Bowser...
that either speaks to Luigi being good with Ninty SFF or Bowser doing
poorly with it. Bowser also destroyed Toad, who was looking to be a fan fave next to Bowser in those Mario polls. And Kirby had everything going in his favor in that matchup. He's fallen a bit since that match. I think Bowser holds up well as far as the Mario chain goes. If Luigi beats him, I'd chalk it up to his actual strength, not Bowser folding to SFF. --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| smitelf | Posted 10/21/2008 7:01:42 PM | message detail |
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Well, that's LFF. That's different, and tons of characters are
affected by it, so it's not like it's on Bowser... The argument I was
tending to was in response to why people say they are taking Luigi >
Bowser. Some characters are affected by it more than others. Bowser got LFFed pretty badly by the likes of Mewtwo and Shadow. Luigi has just plain done better in this format. I'd still take Bowser > Luigi 1v1, but Bowser seems to be pretty unimpressive in 4-ways compared to his 1v1 incarnation. I'd say that Bowser and Luigi are close to equal in 4-ways, strength-wise, with Luigi having a slight enough edge to be the favorite. --- Official Queen ***** of the Universe! Biden/Obama...er, I mean Obama/Biden '08! |
| TheRye | Posted 10/21/2008 7:01:46 PM | message detail |
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My two favorite topics from that pic: "I suicide unless CJay fixes this" - Lucid Faia "I'm leaving GameFAQs" - MyWorldIsSquare --- The Rye - The one and only... http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=3 |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/21/2008 7:02:49 PM | message detail |
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Kirby did all of 0.19% better on Bowser. That's easily within random, day-to-day, not to mention year-to-year, variation. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 108/140 --- T-215 (58 way) Bracket: Kefka > Marth --- Vote: Marth |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/21/2008 7:06:42 PM | message detail |
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My favorites from that pic: "All the Mario fans join me in saying PWNED" - goku z "Crono=Pwned!!" - xajBOB "What happened to CV III's Alucard!!!!" - lordjers "Jesus Christ Sephiroth! Put on a damn shirt!" - Lord Meta Knight --- Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/21/2008 7:08:28 PM | message detail |
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well, seeing as Luigi's actual strength looks to be in Bowser's league.. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/21/2008 7:08:36 PM | message detail |
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Anyone who was around here back then remember this? I went to bed losing all hope in Mario. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 101/136 Today's Match: Lucario > Niko |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/21/2008 7:10:25 PM | message detail |
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Match XXXV: Luigi vs. Liquid Snake vs. Bowser vs. Phoenix Wright Last Round: Luigi – 39.68% Liquid Snake – 33.10% Roxas – 19.11% Sho Minamimoto – 8.11% Liquid must have gotten quite the boost because looking at his performance last year you would expect him to have gotten closer to Roxas. Being 6.5% away from Luigi puts Liquid in a very good position to place or even win this match. Bowser – 45.11% Phoenix Wright – 23.91% Geno – 16.52% Deckard Cain – 14.46% With Phoenix getting his usual early board vote people were calling for Bowser’s head, but throughout the day Bowser’s percent increased to a very respectable level. Bowser was the second strongest Mario character and now today we’ll see if this still holds true. Analysis: Round 2 has gotten to a great start and for the third match in a row we are expecting to have a debatable match. Under usual circumstances this match would be between two characters, but with LFF present Liquid Snake has been added to the fray. Also continuing with the round I’m not expecting to get full points though this time both my characters are present in the match. The only thing that I do know is that Phoenix Wright will be getting last in this match. It will be interesting to see if he can keep up with the other three characters before dying off after the first hour though in the end that is probably the only excitement that we will be getting from him. Despite my bracket not having him placing I now believe that Liquid Snake will take first in this match. I’m really surprised at the boost he got from MGS4, but getting within 6.5% of Luigi and for the fact that Nintendo characters have a long history of LFF each other I don’t see how Liquid could fail getting first unless the boost was only temporary. The real match begins with Luigi and Bowser. Ever since Bowser’s underwhelming performance in 2006 combining with Luigi’s performance in the same year he is the favourite to defeat Bowser. Before the strengths for Mario characters has been Mario > Bowser > Yoshi > Luigi however with the site shift the non-Mario placing has been debated to be in any order. This will be the first step in determining the new order and like their matches in 2003 and 2004 I’m not expecting there to be much SFF. Personally I think Bowser is still the stronger of the two. While the days of Luigi getting shafted are over he is still considered to be the other brother in the Mario universe while Bowser is the fire breathing koopa. It’s really hard to explain it, but I have a feeling that Bowser is preferred over Luigi by Mario fans. With his performance last round Liquid will surely take first while Bowser and Luigi fight it over for second and who truly is the stronger Mario character. While I don’t see either character being SFF, only LFF Liquid would require a drop in strength over the round in order to lose to both characters. charmander6000’s Bracket: Bowser > Luigi charmancer6000’s Prediction: Liquid Snake – 30.26%, Bowser – 28.53%, Luigi – 26.94%, Phoenix Wright – 14.27% --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 101/136 Today's Match: Lucario > Niko |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/21/2008 7:11:13 PM | message detail |
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Bowser/Yoshi/Luigi confuse me horribly. Yoshi wins both favorite Mario
character polls, but loses 56-44 to Bowser, and beats Luigi 54-46.
Bowser looks stronger than Luigi for years, but they put up similar
performances on Kirby. I figure pretty much anything can happen
tomorrow. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 108/140 --- T-215 (58 way) Bracket: Kefka > Marth --- Vote: Marth |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/21/2008 7:12:46 PM | message detail |
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yay altair is finally under 1000 --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| smitelf | Posted 10/21/2008 7:16:01 PM | message detail |
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I agree red sox. I wouldn't count Bowser or Luigi out; it could go
either way. My brain tells me Luigi, my gut tells me Bowser (especially
with that amazing pic). --- Official Queen ***** of the Universe! Biden/Obama...er, I mean Obama/Biden '08! |
| Sephiroth23X | Posted 10/21/2008 7:16:30 PM | message detail |
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41 vote cut by Altair...there's life in him yet, but not enough to pull out the win --- What I have shown you is reality. What you remember... that is the illusion. |
| therealmnm | Posted 10/21/2008 7:16:44 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, Bowser killing Toad especially given how they compared in the
favorite's poll has me thinking he has a good chance going head-to-head
with a Mario character not named Mario. Luigi didn't really do anything
spectacular last round to make me think he's the favorite. I could be
wrong though. --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/21/2008 7:18:16 PM | message detail |
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Are you seriously comparing Luigi to Toad Do you not see how incredibly flawed that is? Bowser has consistently underperformed almost every time he's forced to go head to head with a strong Nintendo character. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/21/2008 7:22:18 PM | message detail |
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Bowser has consistently underperformed almost every time he's forced to go head to head with a strong Nintendo character. Except for that match with Yoshi, the winner of the favorite Mario characters poll. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 108/140 --- T-215 (58 way) Bracket: Kefka > Marth --- Vote: Marth |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/21/2008 7:23:12 PM | message detail |
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that Yoshi match is barely even relevant anymore.. not to mention it's
1v1. I would expect most people, in this format, to back Yoshi. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/21/2008 7:23:53 PM | message detail |
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The difference between the Bowser/Yoshi/Luigi and Bowser/Kirby/Luigi
comparisons are that Kirby is from outside the SMB fanbase. Yoshi is
from within it, as are the other two. Therefore, I trust how
Bowser/Luigi compare through that more than I do through
Kirby...especially since, honestly, Yoshi would probably do the same
thing to Kirby that Bowser and Luigi did. Anything goes tomorrow though, nothing is for certain. I just like Bowser tomorrow. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/21/2008 7:25:11 PM | message detail |
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That match was also 5 years ago. Since then, Bowser has gotten SFFd
into the ground by Mario, got rSFFd a lot by Kirby, got destroyed by
Ryu with Toad & Mewtwo in the poll, then lost to Ryu with...Shadow
in the poll. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/21/2008 7:33:49 PM | message detail |
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For what it's worth, I wouldn't expect SFF-matches to have so much
variation or change without reason. I don't think Bowser or Yoshi (or
Luigi) have had much reason to change since then, either, so things
shouldn't change a whole lot. Then again, Mario soared between Mario-polls for whatever reason...but at least he showed it in the Mario-polls. I don't think Bowser or Luigi showed much change between them. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| hellfire104 | Posted 10/21/2008 7:34:53 PM | message detail |
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Is the next match pic up yet? --- Point Total: 109/136, 80% correct Rank 139th Today: Lucario > Marth |
| therealmnm | Posted 10/21/2008 7:35:52 PM | message detail |
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Do you not see how incredibly flawed that is? Bowser has
consistently underperformed almost every time he's forced to go head to
head with a strong Nintendo character. When comparing it to how Bowser and Toad performed in the favorites poll, which people like to point out against Bowser? Sure Bowser looks slightly worst compared to other (read: non-Mario characters due to the LFF), but even then, he still crushed Toad, unless you think Toad is really that weak, where Ryu more than triples him... At any rate, I was really pointing out Bowser's SFF potential against the other Mario characters directly. Bowser has gotten SFFd into the ground by Mario, got rSFFd a lot by Kirby, got destroyed by Ryu with Toad & Mewtwo in the poll, then lost to Ryu with...Shadow in the poll. Uh, most people thought Bowser actually did well against Mario. I wouldn't call that SFF'd to the ground. And it's known that Bowser can't stand up to Mario. That says nothing about how he stands up to the other Mario characters. And losing to Ryu in that situation is nothing to be ashamed of, unless you are arguing that Luigi would have won there? At any rate, we'll have our answers in 1.5 hours. Regardless of if he loses to Liquid or not, if Bowser loses to Luigi, he's officially the chump of that Yoshi/Luigi/Bowser trio. I just haven't found any reason to give Luigi the edge in that matchup right now. --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/21/2008 7:36:49 PM | message detail |
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Altair: Hey, guys, look! I'm still making big gains! Come on pay attention to me I can totally come back =( --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2008 7:37:04 PM | message detail |
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Bowser doesn't really have an excuse to lose right now, either. Luigi looked startingly mortal last round, and Bowser looks awesome. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| ZFS | Posted 10/21/2008 7:37:37 PM | message detail |
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if only Altair could finish it --- six bullets. more than enough to kill anything that moves. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2008 7:37:58 PM | message detail |
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Altair: Hey, guys, look! I'm still making big gains! Come on pay attention to me I can totally come back =( Nothing is true. Everything is permitted. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| therealmnm | Posted 10/21/2008 7:38:09 PM | message detail |
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Too bad the next Assassin's Creed game looks to be starring somebody else... --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/21/2008 7:40:04 PM | message detail |
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If Bowser wins tomorrow, it's because of his own strength, not because of his position on the SFF pecking order. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2008 7:43:34 PM | message detail |
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This oddly reminds me of Bowser's ill-fated comeback against Snake.
Just too tall an order, even if Bowser/Altair kept slashing right up
until the end. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| therealmnm | Posted 10/21/2008 7:48:04 PM | message detail |
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This oddly reminds me of Bowser's ill-fated comeback against Snake.
Just too tall an order, even if Bowser/Altair kept slashing right up
until the end. Heh, I remember this topic gave me massive **** for arguing Bowser > Snake, especially after Kirby/Bowser. I was this close. :( Bowser's never been the same since. I think the I FEEL ASLEEP was from him and he's never recovered. --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/21/2008 7:49:33 PM | message detail |
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This oddly reminds me of Bowser's ill-fated comeback against Snake.
Just too tall an order, even if Bowser/Altair kept slashing right up
until the end. Heh, I remember this topic gave me massive **** for arguing Bowser > Snake, especially after Kirby/Bowser. I was this close. :( Bowser's never been the same since. I think the I FEEL ASLEEP was from him and he's never recovered. Hahahahahahaha!!! XD --- Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/21/2008 7:50:58 PM | message detail |
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Wow. Altair has cut 1800 votes so far. That's damned impressive even in losing. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| therealmnm | Posted 10/21/2008 7:53:36 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/sc2k5/br58.jpg This was the best chance any character has been given ever to pull off an upset. Bowser had every single thing in his favor short of throwing a 3D SSBM model in there burning Solid **** to a crisp. If I was a Snake fan, I'd be crying foul to this very day about that match had he lost! --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/21/2008 7:59:57 PM | message detail |
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I like Luigi tomorrow simply because he's been so much more impressive
in the last 2 years whereas Bowser's only exceptional year was 2005.
Given the direction Ganon and Bowser went in 2006/2007, I think it's
safe to say there's some sort of Villain Contest related anomaly in the
2005 character battle. Beating Bacondorf, Zero and Kirby by more than Bowser > getting ass kicked to the curb by 2006 Crono and Ryu. --- I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/21/2008 8:06:21 PM | message detail |
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Amaterasu Altair Duke Nukem Marth gogogo --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/21/2008 8:11:38 PM | message detail |
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I like Marth winning it... ...let's go with Marth > Ammy. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/21/2008 8:12:47 PM | message detail |
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KamikazePotato (#484) Depends on pictures really with Altair and Duke being so pic sensetive. Lets just say they've got best pic they have, and I'll go with Duke > Marth --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| ffmasterjose | Posted 10/21/2008 8:13:57 PM | message detail |
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Ugh, I can't stop looking at the match pic for tomorrow and feeling bad for Liquid. --- 107/136 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII NP: Lucario > Marth | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0 |
| paraboxx | Posted 10/21/2008 8:20:22 PM | message detail |
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I'd gladly give up those two bracket points I was whining about last night to see Altair complete this comeback. Ah well. At least they'll help make up for the points I lose tonight! (Bowser > Liquid, bracket? Really?) |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/21/2008 8:22:28 PM | message detail |
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--- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/21/2008 8:29:11 PM | message detail |
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*whistles* --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/21/2008 8:33:12 PM | message detail |
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To 491 I win --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2008 8:34:52 PM | message detail |
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Division 2: Round 2 - Match 35 – Luigi vs. Liquid Snake vs. Bowser vs. Phoenix Wright Moltar’s Analysis Luigi Round 1 - 39.68% vs. Liquid, Roxas and Sho The man in green makes it with ease into R2 Liquid Round 1 - 33.10% vs. Luigi, Roxas and Sho Liquid puts up a strong performance, but is the collapse next? Bowser Round 1 - 45.11% vs. Phoenix, Geno and Deckard Bowser makes a nice recovery in his match Phoenix Round 1 - 23.91% vs. Bowser, Geno and Deckard No one objects to this, I presume. Finally, a Round 2 match that I actually have in my bracket! That means I can write about what I was actually thinking when I decided the winners while making my bracket. Originally, I thought that even though Luigi and Bowser would split votes in a similar fashion to Luigi and Ganondorf last year, they would still be able to take the Top 2 spots in the match. This is because Phoenix can ‘get outta here’ and Liquid would fail to capitalize like he did last year in Round 2, where he completely collapsed and got last place, looking awful in the process. Now I’m going into the match thinking ‘oh geez liquid might not collapse’. He looked very good in round 1, even beating Luigi in a couple hours during the night. Bowser looked decent in his match as well, but the big question now is what happens when we put Bowser and Luigi in the poll together. Well, let’s look at Mudkipz. When Ganondorf and Luigi split votes, Mudkip was almost able to beat Luigi, but still fell short. It goes to show that if a character isn’t strong enough to capitalize on a split, the two characters hurting each other can still get by. The only potential problem I see with this is that was a Zelda character and Mario character that split, so there was nothing extreme. With 2 Mario characters this time, that could be a completely different story. Plus, Mudkip is Nintendo as well, whereas Liquid has a completely different fanbase to draw from. So I definitely think Liquid has a much better shot at second than before. If there is any significant SFF, I think Bowser is going to be on the receiving end of it, allowing Liquid to beat him. Still, I think Luigi and Bowser will advance, with Liquid coming in a very close third, similar to Ganon/Luigi/Mudkip. (still rootin’ for liquid though) Moltar’s Bracket Says: Luigi > Bowser Moltar’s Prediction is: Luigi: 30% - Bowser: 28% - Liquid: 28% - Phoenix: 14% Heroic Mario’s Analysis Good match right here. This was always one of the more interesting matches in the bracket, if only because of Liquid's upset potential. Most assumed this would be an easy win for Luigi and Bowser, but a few voiced the possibility of Liquid pulling off an upset with MGS4 behind him. After looking at last round, I think it's hard not to have Liquid advancing in some form here, be it in first or second. If coming within 7% of Luigi with Roxas/Sho (more likely to be a detriment for Liquid well before Luigi) hanging around wasn't enough for some, being put up against essentially three Nintendo characters should do the trick. Phoenix isn't exactly a Nintendo character, but he appeals to that same fanbase -- and his only games are on the DS. He's not much of a factor here, but if he hurts anyone, it'd be Luigi and Bowser. If you want to vote for a non-Nintendo option, Liquid's who you're going to. Can't hurt to stand out in a match. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2008 8:35:19 PM | message detail |
| But what I think really tips this into Liquid's
favor is Luigi/Bowser SFF. I doubt we'll see either one of them SFF the
other into the ground (and if they do I expect to see Liquid in
second), but that splitting of the Nintendo vote is gonna hurt them. We
saw it last year with Ganon and Luigi, and I'd be surprised if we don't
see it again. Who comes out on top is anyone's guess, though. Based off
of the past couple of years, I think Luigi's a good bet here. He held
up well enough against Ganon, and Bowser has been downright
unimpressive with SFF of any kind, not to mention him being
unimpressive in general these past few years. There's also some Mario
favorites poll, for whatever it's worth, that shows Luigi beating out
Bowser, too. All signs point to Luigi. I can't say I'd be surprised if Bowser ends up topping Luigi, though. When you're dealing with SFF, especially of the Nintendo variety, all sorts of goofy things can happen. But whatever happens with second, I think it's going to let Liquid cruise by with an easy first place. I've mentioned it plenty of times in the past, but Liquid's showing last round was up there as one of the most impressive of the round (only outdone by Big Boss and Zack). There was no reason for it to be a 'fluke' either, but we'll see. Prediction: Liquid - 31% ; Luigi - 27% ; Bowser - 25% ; Phoenix - 17% Vote: Liquid Snake Yoblazer’s Analysis Not too much to analyze on a technical level here. We've got Luigi, Bowser, Liquid Snake, and Phoenix Wright. Before the contest, Luigi and Bowser were very strong favorites. Sure, some people thought Liquid might crash the party (myself included, ahehehe), but it was admittedly difficult to bet on a guy that folded like a lawn chair when he saw decent competition last year. Once we began rolling forth with the matches, though, people's opinions began to change. Not only did Liquid come through with an impressive overperformance in the Round 1, but Nintendo also came through by looking kinda bad. Put two and two together and you have all the makings of a huge Liquid upset, right? Right? Uhh... maybe. Things were looking peachy for Solid's more daintily accented twin, but then he got cursed with what we all knew he was gonna get yet it still hit us like a bag of crap to the face when we saw it because it was somehow worse than any of us expected. Yes, I'm talking about Liquid Snake's match picture. Man, that thing is awful. Liquid's face is hideous. The colors are drab. The font is completely generic. The whole thing is just a sad sight. Now, we've all seen that characters can definitely take advantage and win a match given favorable conditions (Hayabusa, Big Boss, and Duke Nukem are a few examples from this year). However, I personally think that the characters in question have to do their part and at least appeal to the voters. Those other three did that easily. Liquid... won't be appealing to much (might be doing some more appalling, actually) with that picture. After watching Sephiroth and Tifa barely hit 75% against two pieces of fodder, I was very hesitant in giving Luigi and Bowser a combined percentage over the mid-50s. That all changed when I got a look at Liquid's ugly stupid face, though. Yes, it's that bad. He'll still be very close, as the two big Nintendo reps are about as SFF-entangled as you can get, but I expect him to miss out by a tiny bit here. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/21/2008 8:35:23 PM | message detail |
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So...prediction percentages? I don't even want to guess on this one. The board got mauled and i don't have a clue which way the casuals favor on this one. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2008 8:36:00 PM | message detail |
| With Liquid (just barely) out of the picture, it's
all up to the Big Bow and L-Dawg. Who wins the SFF battle? Heh, your
guess is as good as mine. Most people have sided with Luigi, and so
have I. He looked better last year and I simply like him more, so that
was good enough for me; it's not like stats are you gonna do you much
good in a situation like this. As for Phoenix - I'm expecting a pretty
good performance outta him, actually. Like Liquid, Phoenix is also
looking at a very favorable fanbase split. Unlike Liquid, he was given
a picture that doesn't make me want to take a leak on my monitor. Luigi - 30% Liquid Snake - 26% Bowser - 28% Phoenix Wright - 16% Lopen’s Analysis This match is one that I can possibly get 8 points for, I'm so excited! So anyway, this match, for an upset pick, is looking to be pretty straightforward to make a case for. Liquid !! came within 6% of Luigi last round. You've gotta think Bowser hurts Luigi enough for Liquid !! to overcome that. Straight Mario SFF can be vicious. Look at what happened with Bowser last year. Phoenix Wright shows hints of Nintendo alignment too based on his match with Mario last year, so he certainly can't help anything. Speaking of Bowser. Bowser got STOMPED by Ryu last year with only Toad in the match. Yes, there was Mewtwo, but I still think Luigi > Toad + Mewtwo as far as damage goes. Unlike Toad, Luigi is pretty strong on his own. And also unlike Toad, Luigi actually soundly beats Bowser in those favorite Mario character polls. This is why I think Luigi will defeat Bowser. Bowser either sucks with SFF, or sucks at the format. Either way, sucks to be him. My bracket lives on... THROUGH THIS ARM. Believe. Lopen's prediction: Liquid !! - 30.98% Luigi – 27.34% Bowser – 25.34% Phoenix Wright – 16.34% Transience’s Analysis this here is a funny match, and one that should tell us a lot. we get to see two closely related characters go at it, we get to see the MGS character that was most impressive again, and we get to solve who's actually more liked within the Mario fanbase. let's start with Luigi and Bowser. once upon a time (2004), Bowser beat Yoshi easily, who beat Luigi easily. since then, though? it's been all Luigi. maybe Luigi hasn't flat-out passed Bowser, but it's looked about equal. they had equal percentages against Kirby, x-stats show them being about equal in 2006, and Luigi actually looked better last year, beating Ganondorf (thanks to some picture help, but hey) while Bowser lost to a guy he beat two years prior. Bowser seems in a bit of a slide, and they're probably equal now. so it comes down to: who's the more preferred guy in the Mario hierarchy? Which Mario character is your all-time favorite? Bowser 11.2% 8609 Luigi 16.94% 13021 Mario 23.13% 17777 Princess Peach 3.7% 2844 Toad 8.47% 6509 Waluigi 2.59% 1994 Wario 6.86% 5273 Yoshi 27.1% 20830 TOTAL VOTES 76857 I've no idea how valid this poll is since Yoshi beat Mario yet again, but it's something. given that it's equal, I'll give the tentative edge to Luigi. then there's Liquid Snake, who won entire hours against Luigi last round and will absolutely take advantage of the fanbase split. the question here: how much does the split hurt the two guys? I'm inclined to say not that much. last year, Luigi and Ganondorf were in the same poll and Yuna still finished in a distant fourth.. and Yuna rocked Liquid the round prior. now, this is clearly a different Liquid thanks to MGS4. but how much different? |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2008 8:36:19 PM | message detail |
| after round 1's match, I thought Liquid would get
first -- MGS4 looked to be a huge boost. but with Ocelot's bomb a few
days ago, I'm reevaluating that. it seems weird for Liquid to be the
only one to truly capitalize on MGS4. Snake didn't do all that great,
Raiden got close to Master Chief but also lost updates to an FF4
character, and Big Boss is impossible to gauge thanks to the picture. I
now have no idea what happened in that R1 match and am inclined to
believe that it was Luigi sucking as much as Liquid doing well. as
such, I've reverted to Bowser here.. and I'm going with Luigi. I don't
like any of the three guys finishing in any order today. as for Phoenix, I hope he doesn't bomb. come on, Phoenix. time for second place! haaaaaa fanbase splits, yay! but everyone's played Mario so it won't matter transience's prediction: Bowser with 29.99% Luigi with 28.34% Liquid Snake with 27.44% Phoenix Wright with 14.23% Ngamer’s Analysis Pretty much all the long-time Contest vets were up in arms when we found out that this year's Contest would once again be a 4-way, and I'll admit that I was just as opposed to the idea as any of them. While I still feel that we're overdue to return to 1v1s for '09, I've got to admit that occasionally this format can turn out some real gems, and these two matches are a great example. Both yesterday and for tonight you could make a strong case for any of the top three characters finishing in any position, and that's pretty amazing IMO. Speaking of the current match, I can't say too much right now, as Duke has completely fallen off the map with the ASV (the only surprising thing is that it didn't happen sooner!) and will need to recover soon to ensure Altair doesn't overtake him. The one thing I CAN say though is boy, what a disappointment from Marth! You're a two-time SSB veteran, how are you letting a guy who got owned that hard last round hang around in this one? Bah, I guess the D/P generation of Pokemon isn't as pathetically weak as we all thought a few weeks back. Anyways, tonight's got me flustered big time. Let's get right into it before I lose my nerve! R1 X-Stat Performances Luigi - 26.30% (based on '07 Roxas) Liquid Snake - 23.92% (based on '07 Roxas) Bowser - 28.29% (based on '07 Geno) Phoenix Wright - 19.60% (based on '07 Geno) Just looking that over, the King of the Koopas would appear to be a clear favorite for the advancement in this one. BUT, I'm of the opinion that he overperfomed last round due to pretty much perfect placement- his status near the top of the Nintendo food chain allowed him to SFF down PW and Geno's percentage, while Cain looked like a generic old man from some RPG and couldn't take advantage of the split. He should still do well for himself in this one, and Phoenix should once again get his head handed to him beyond the first 15 minutes, but I don't see him finishing in the top two because... Luigi's even higher on that N food chain! Or at least, that's what Mario favorite polls and the last few years of Contest results would have us believe. Personally I'm not as sold on Luigi > Bowser in this format as most others seem to be... sure the guy squeezed by Ganon, but he needed every advantage in the book to do so. Today the tables have turned somewhat and it's BOWSER who looks flat out awesome in the match pic, so even though I'm still sticking with a Luigi win, I bet Bowser keeps it closer than you might expect. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2008 8:37:00 PM | message detail |
| As for Liquid... ack! I was all set on Ocelot
coming out guns blazing the other day to prove the MGS4 boost beyond a
doubt with a great showing on Kratos. Then it would have been easy for
me to pick against the Big Boss-like three way Nintendo split and have
Liquid stand out like a sore thumb right into an easy first place
finish. But then... Ocelot crashed and burned big time. And now I'm
remembering how the last time I put faith in Liquid he likewise made a
total fool of himself against Lavos and then Sephiroth. And NOW I'm
checking out this match pic, and Liquid looks like such a tool! Seriously, ugh, could someone please create some decent artwork for this guy some day? Soooo with Nintendo not performing up to standards to this point, Phoenix being there to further hold down the Mario guys, and MGS having at least a decent show of it so far, I'm afraid I can no longer stick with my bracket and the Luigi > Bowser I picked here. However I refuse to be burned by MGS faith yet again, and so I'm stubbornly not moving from the Luigi side of that prediction. Here's hoping for an awesome fatal three-way tonight! Let's stir the pot and bring out... Luigi - 29.39% Liquid Snake - 29.20% Bowser - 28.29% Phoenix Wright - 13.11% That looks... like it's not going to happen! But dang it, I tried my best. Guest’s Analysis - LeonhartFour Luigi Luigi was one of the few Brawl characters not to be a big disappointment in the first round. He didn’t look great, but he did about what he was expected to do, which was more than you could say for most of Nintendo in the first round. He’s in a tough position here. Luigi has to deal with an LFF split with Bowser, who has always been perceived as being stronger than him. However, is that really the case? I think a lot of Bowser’s perceived strength comes from beating Yoshi in 2003 (the same Yoshi who beat Luigi in 2004, by the way) and from his 2005 contest performances. However, you can throw out anything from before 2005 because of the site demographic shift. Yes, the shift was toward Nintendo, but that doesn’t mean that preferences within the Nintendo hierarchy couldn’t have changed. Plus, it’s looking more and more like Bowser’s 2005 performance was Villains Contest fueled. He hasn’t looked as good since. And while I’m treading on dangerous ground, Luigi has beaten Bowser in the multiway Favorite Mario Character polls in the past. Plus, he stood up well to Ganondorf in round 2 and beat him outright in round 3 (with a little help from Bacondorf). At the very least, Luigi won’t get destroyed, but will he win? Liquid Snake Forget NintendoFAQs. This is the year of MGS4FAQs, folks! Liquid looked awfully good in round 1, hanging tough with Luigi overnight and staying within 7% overall by the time was all said and done. He smoked Roxas and left him in the dust as well. The fact that he stayed that close to Luigi means Liquid’s lookin’ good to capitalize on a Nintendo LFF split here. There’s virtually no doubt that Bowser is going to split with Luigi, and probably by a good amount. After all, they’re from the same series and they’re relatively close in strength. Liquid has a great chance of moving on to the third round, and he’s got a good shot at taking first place to boot. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2008 8:37:27 PM | message detail |
|
Bowser After last year’s contest, people were concerned that the King of Koopas was losing his touch. Early in his first round match, those doubts seemed to be confirmed. Through the night, he was barely getting 40% on a pretty weak fourpack, but he made a very good comeback with the day vote to turn a bad performance into a good one. Still, it wasn’t a great performance. Bowser only did about 5% better than Luigi, and his fourpack was obviously not that strong. Plus, he didn’t seem to handle LFF that well last year either, letting Mewtwo get a wee bit too close to him for my liking. That’s not to say he doesn’t have a great shot at advancing. Really, until Luigi beats him outright, Bowser should probably be considered the favorite. He’s got the stronger overall history, even if his recent history hasn’t been all that great. Phoenix Wright I hate to say Phoenix Wright is a nonfactor in this, but…well, he is. 10-15% is all he’s going to manage here, especially since I think he’s actually prone to getting SFF’d by Nintendo a bit (which could help Liquid out some more, incidentally). The fact that Nick is here at all is good enough for most of his fans though, so they won’t be disappointed by him getting fourth place, I think. I hope he surprises me and does better than I’m expecting though. Solid’s Other Half Claws Ahead Here Through Other Arm Luigi - 28.56% Liquid Snake - 30.30% Bowser - 27.77% Phoenix Wright - 13.37% Crew Consensus: Luigi > Bowser has 2 (Molt, Yo), Liquid > Luigi has 3 (HM, Lopen, Guest), Bowser > Luigi has Tran, and Luigi > Liquid has Ngamer ...well then |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/21/2008 8:37:44 PM | message detail |
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hey --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/21/2008 8:38:42 PM | message detail |
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final post --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
