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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 604

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/20/2008 7:05:05 PM | message detail
If Altair gets 37%, I will make a topic denouncing Ariel and rescinding my love of all things Mermaid.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/20/2008 7:07:05 PM | message detail
*jots down*

Really though, Marth and Lucario will be holding each other back, and Duke is probably not going to do as well as last round. I think. Altair is going to be going up against a guy who guts 24% on Link/Wario/Zidane, will be stronger next round without Zidane holding him back, and has a more dedicated fanbase than him. He needs a DAMN good showing to be a contender.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
hellfire104 | Posted 10/20/2008 7:14:08 PM | message detail
Altair isn't going to get 37% in this match.

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Point Total: 101/128, 79% correct Rank 204th
Today: Link > Zack
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/20/2008 7:18:04 PM | message detail
It's very unlikely, yes. So are Altair's chances of toppling Zack at this point.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/20/2008 7:32:36 PM | message detail
If Altair gets 37%, I will make a topic denouncing Ariel and rescinding my love of all things Mermaid.

:(
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Warning, there is a bear right behind you.
Ride Him.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/20/2008 7:35:34 PM | message detail
The lack of faith in Altair is quite mind boggling.
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/20/2008 7:36:04 PM | message detail
As is the hype.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/20/2008 7:57:55 PM | message detail
Who made that banner? Best contest pic ever.
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"A joke format for a joke contest deserves joke winners." -Moltar ~*ST*~
NP: Final Fantasy 4 DS, Mother 3, Spore
Link The Hylian | Posted 10/20/2008 7:59:47 PM | message detail
Banner would be better if it didn't glorify stupid joke characters.

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"The PS2 had 12,000,000 pre orders. To give you an idea of how many people that is that's over half of the world population." - DifferentialEquation
vcharon | Posted 10/20/2008 8:01:00 PM | message detail
Hate the banner. Glorification of these jokes by the administration of the site is kinda pathetic.

Run with it while it's cool with the kids, I guess.
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:>
ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/20/2008 8:01:39 PM | message detail
Of course, he could always use my banner...

http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/character_battle_vii_banner.png

</shameless plug>
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
The_Ocelot2 | Posted 10/20/2008 8:01:40 PM | message detail
The banner is awesome for the sole reason that it features the DUKE
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Go Ducks Go!
http://img.imgcake.com/fallout_3.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 10/20/2008 8:06:50 PM | message detail
Match XXXIV: Marth vs. Duke Nukem vs. Altair vs. Lucario

Last Round:

Marth – 29.49%
Duke Nukem – 26.35%
Niko Bellic – 22.65%
Kefka – 21.51%

You know after everything was said and done the only thing that I had wrong in my expectations was that I overestimated Niko. The board on the other hand underestimated Duke with many people expecting him not to even be in the match. On the other hand he took the lead over Marth at night and with two Nintendo characters in the poll it looks like Duke may advance to round 3 for the first time ever.

Altair – 43.10%
Lucario – 22.21%
Isaac – 20.92%
Guybrush Threepwood – 13.78%

I had Lucario advancing out of the division alongside Link and really there’s no explanation to his performance other than to say that he flopped and he did it hard. Not only did Isaac take the lead during the night, but Guybrush was able to cut into the leads of both Lucario and Isaac for two hours during the night. Altair was able to give out a great performance and he almost doubled Lucario, but today he is going to be tested on some real (or better) competition.

Analysis:

In both last contest and this contest this will probably be the first time where I’ll be getting a double red in my bracket, Niko has been eliminated and Lucario is going nowhere, but last. In a division that pretty much got every single guru the favourable result for this match has no guru bracket backing.

Even though Lucario was the favourite for first when the brackets were made now he’s the favourite for last. Unlike Melee the boost from Brawl is much smaller than what we expected and while Lucario is the face for Pokemon Pearl/Diamond/Platinum it shouldn’t have been expected that Lucario would have been on the same page or anywhere near Mewtwo or Pikachu. With Marth stealing the small Brawl portion it is unlikely for Lucario to salvage any points for me.

With Lucario’s fall came the rise of Altair and while doubling high fodders or low mid carders is not really impressive his opponents would likely have failed to reproduce the same results. I’m starting to believe that even without the guru contest Altair would have still made it to the contest and would have probably still burned us if he was put in other places as well. In reality Altair is the only one that can possibly defeat Zack in this division and with the performance Zack is giving right now he’ll have to have a flawless performance.

Duke is the favourite to take second and while many gurus have Niko or Kefka in this place the consensus reason is that the Marth and Lucario will split the vote. Duke was able to get within 3% of Marth and was able to take the lead over him for a short period of time so even if the LFF is not that great Duke doesn’t need a lot of it to steal the win.

Even before the contest Marth was the underdog going into this match though unlike what we thought Marth will be the character above Lucario and not the other way around. The only way I see Marth advancing to round 3 is if Duke underperforming against casual characters is true. Marth does have a 3% buffer to work with and if he does scrape by it will be by the skin of his teeth.

Altair should have no problems getting first, but he really needs to impress in this match if he wants to go to the quarterfinals. Duke is the heavy favourite to get second though Marth has an outside chance. The washed up Lucario will be doing nothing except dragging Marth down.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Lucario > Niko

charmander6000’s Prediction: Altair – 34.26%, Duke – 26.32%, Marth – 24.82%, Lucario – 14.60%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 97/128 Today's Match: Link > Shadow
ZFS | Posted 10/20/2008 8:19:22 PM | message detail
Who's ready for some Altair 40%+ I know I am

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six bullets. more than enough to kill anything that moves.
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/20/2008 8:20:13 PM | message detail
Only if you want Zack to be handed his butt on a plate cooked well-done with a side of fries

damn I'm hungry

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
XxSoulxX | Posted 10/20/2008 8:20:13 PM | message detail
Duke > Marth.
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Good Times,
Great Memories
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/20/2008 8:20:27 PM | message detail

ZFS (#364)
Who's ready for some Altair 40%+ I know I am



people will think its snake, c'mon altair
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
ZFS | Posted 10/20/2008 8:20:57 PM | message detail
Albion knows

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six bullets. more than enough to kill anything that moves.
trannyscience | Posted 10/20/2008 8:21:25 PM | message detail
don't ever say that again
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 10/20/2008 8:22:12 PM | message detail
I'll be cheering for Altair to do well so he can beat Zack next round. And Lucario.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 97/128 Today's Match: Link > Shadow
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/20/2008 8:22:38 PM | message detail
I mean HM, despite what you may think, I like Zack and am supporting him. I just would've supported Zidane over anybody at that point.

But if you want Altair to do that well, you're also calling for Zack's demise. Priorities, man.

(gogo Duke>Altair)

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Gaddswell | Posted 10/20/2008 8:23:37 PM | message detail
Duke in round 3 would be something to see!
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8
ZFS | Posted 10/20/2008 8:24:26 PM | message detail
I wouldn't mind seeing a close one between Altair and Zack. One more strong, new character is good by me!

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six bullets. more than enough to kill anything that moves.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/20/2008 8:26:02 PM | message detail

Gaddswell (#372)
Duke in round 3 would be something to see!



http://www.student.tue.nl/p/f.a.m.smeijers/sfp/pic/duke1ani.gif
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/20/2008 8:26:18 PM | message detail
...Was Assassin's Creed even THAT well-received?
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/20/2008 8:27:12 PM | message detail

Fayt_Esteed (#375)
...Was Assassin's Creed even THAT well-received?



Yes, it got 8s across the board, and was the fastest selling new IP ever.
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
red sox 777 | Posted 10/20/2008 8:27:31 PM | message detail
There's plenty of room for Altair to do well and still lose to Zack, although 40% would make me very nervous. But I'd rather Zack destroyed Altair so we can hype Zack > Mario for 8 days.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 100/132 --- T-309 (97 way)
Bracket: Link > Zack --- Vote: Zack
ZFS | Posted 10/20/2008 8:27:39 PM | message detail
It was an 8 kinda game for most people. Wasn't a bad game by any means.

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six bullets. more than enough to kill anything that moves.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/20/2008 8:27:58 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/20/2008 8:28:52 PM | message detail
"Assassin's Creed has greatly outstripped Ubisoft's sales expectations and currently ranks among the top two or three best-selling games for the Playstation 3 computer entertainment system and Xbox360 video game and entertainment system in the vast majority of geographical regions. In less than four weeks Assassin's Creed recorded more than two and a half million units in sell-through sales worldwide, and is the fastest-selling new video game intellectual property ever in the U.S. Consequently, Ubisoft now forecasts that it will sell a minimum of five million units of the game in 2007–08 compared with its previous estimate of approximately three million.[39]"
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/20/2008 8:30:20 PM | message detail
"Assassin's Creed has greatly outstripped Ubisoft's sales expectations and currently ranks among the top two or three best-selling games for the Playstation 3 computer entertainment system and Xbox360 video game and entertainment system in the vast majority of geographical regions. In less than four weeks Assassin's Creed recorded more than two and a half million units in sell-through sales worldwide, and is the fastest-selling new video game intellectual property ever in the U.S. Consequently, Ubisoft now forecasts that it will sell a minimum of five million units of the game in 2007–08 compared with its previous estimate of approximately three million.[39]"

Good enough.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/20/2008 8:30:52 PM | message detail
An interesting excerpt from yoblazer's analysis:

Call me crazy, but I think Altair put up an inflated result in his first match. I don't mean to detract too much from his performance, but I think he benefited in what I can only call "Wow, this guy doesn't look like a ****ing fruit" factor.

Gee who does this sound like? >_>

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/20/2008 8:31:46 PM | message detail
Never before have I seen so many people dismiss a 43% performance
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
red sox 777 | Posted 10/20/2008 8:32:42 PM | message detail
It seems it's virtually impossible to overperform as the first place character in this format this year. But that doesn't mean Lucario, Isaac, and Guybrush aren't just really weak (and Lucario/Isaac LFF'd each other).
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 100/132 --- T-309 (97 way)
Bracket: Link > Zack --- Vote: Zack
Yesmar | Posted 10/20/2008 8:34:20 PM | message detail
Never before have I seen so many people dismiss a 43% performance

He still only tripled Guybrush, making him a low midcarder at best. This match is definitely looking to be a three way nail biter.
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""--Banjo
Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2008 8:35:34 PM | message detail
Division 1: Round 2 - Match 34 – Marth vs. Duke Nukem vs. Altair vs. Lucario

Moltar’s Analysis

Marth
Round 1 - 29.49% vs. Duke, Niko and Kefka

Votedashes into Round 2

Duke
Round 1 - 26.35% vs. Marth, Cecil and Jade

Once again, The Duke defies all odds.

Altair
Round 1 - 43.10% vs. Lucario, Isaac and Guybrush

I’m still surprised people liked Assassin’s Creed! I hated it.

Lucario
Round 1 - 22.91% vs. Altair, Isaac and Guybrush

Midna, Balthier, meet Lucario

Yeah, I wasn’t prepared at all for this match. I originally expected Lucario to be strong enough to SFF Marth, allowing him to take first, and then Niko ends up in second just because Altair would be extremely weak. god in hindsight this seems so dumb.

So anyway, in Round 1 we saw Marth win his fourpack by a small margin, and the underdog Duke get by Niko and Kefka to take second. I still have trouble explaining this result. Then in the next match, either Altair turned out to be stronger than expected, or Lucario flopped hard. I believe both things happened, as Isaac did what he was supposed to. It’s more reasonable to think Lucario is just a bit stronger than Isaac than Isaac and Lucario hurt each other allowing Altair to crush them and Guybrush to get close.

Well, here’s what I think happens now. Altair takes first. His Round 1 numbers were very impressive, and even though there is the possibility that he just took advantage to two weak Nintendo guys, I’m starting to believe Altair is decent. Besides, Duke and Marth are his competition now, and that isn’t a huge step up.

Second is between Duke and a Lucario-hindered Marth. With Duke already being close enough to Marth to the point where Duke was actually beating Marth for a short while, I like Duke’s chances to advance here. You can’t forget though, Duke flopped hard in Round 2 last year. The difference here is that his competition still isn’t strong, but I’m still worried for Duke’s chances. A Marth/Lucario split is hard to ignore though, and Marth just isn’t strong enough to benefit from SFF here.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Lucario > Niko (oh geez)

Moltar’s Prediction is: Altair: 34% - Duke: 27% - Marth: 24% - Lucario: 15%



Heroic Mario’s Analysis

So we started off round 2 with an easy match that went to expectations, maybe Zidane doing worse than anticipated but nothing crazy. Today should be anything but matching expectations. I'm not sure if there's even a consensus with this one. You could come up with almost any combination here, although some are more likely than others.

Given how well Altair performed in round 1, I'm hard pressed not to give him a win here. You've got some people saying Altair's being 'overrated,' but much like with Zack, you don't score 45% in a poll based entirely on apathy. Altair should have some strength to him, maybe our second strongest new character behind Zack. He has a perfect mix for today's match -- a great design, a popular, high selling game, and competition that isn't exactly brimming with strength. It can't hurt that even with a bad pic overall, he's got far and away the best pic of the bunch.

I like the Duke for second. Marth beat him last round, but with Lucario in the poll, he's going to lose some out on some of that Smash and Nintendo vote. It can be argued that Altair and Duke might hurt each other's 'casual' appeal, but I ain't buying that -- that kind of vote isn't connected near as strongly as Marth/Lucario. I got plenty of respect for Duke after getting burned by him two years running, but I don't think he's got enough in him to top Altair, who I liked for the division before Zack's showing yesterday.It's still possible that Marth could pull out second place here, but I don't have that kind of respect for him with another Nintendo character in the poll, even if it someone who nearly lost to Isaac.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2008 8:35:46 PM | message detail
Give me Altair with an easy first and Duke reversing the margin from his round 1 match. I'd like to see Altair put up some killer numbers, but I don't know if he'll have it in him.

Prediction: Altair - 34% ; Duke Nukem - 28% ; Marth - 25% ; Lucario - 13%
Vote: Altair



Yoblazer’s Analysis

Today's match won't be great for my bracket (my Lucario > Kefka result will almost surely net me zero points), but it could be great fun, nonetheless. We know the competitors and how most of them surprised us last round. Of the four members in the Marth, Duke Nukem, Altair, and Lucario quartet, only the Fire Emblem prince (Marth) performed how we expected him to. Total unpredictability? Should be a fun little match!

I must begin this short analysis by referencing my shamed disappointment in Lucario. The aura Pokemon carried the hopes of most of the Gurus, yet he was inarguably (no one else is CLOSE) the biggest bomb of Round 1. This guy was supposed to win easily. This guy was supposed to win TWICE. And what did he do? He got ****ing doubled, and he almost lost to Isaac. Not even Diddy Kong can compare to this crap. And now that he's facing stiffer competition and a guy who can take most of his Smash support away, I'm expecting an even worse performance.

Marth will be much more competitive than his Nintendo counterpart. He was way more impressive in the first round, and he has the Melee advantage over Lucario. However, I think he'll come up just short here. Altair and Duke may be splitting a ton of casual support, but it's not unreasonable to assume Marth and Lucario will be splitting just as much (if not more) Nintendo support. The same series gives them both a majority of their strength (although Lucario is so weak that this may not be the case), and while Marth will clearly be the bigger benefactor, Lucario's presence will still hurt him. The fact that the Nintendo reps will be splitting votes, coupled with the fact that they're not all that strong to begin with, means I think they'll be running much less than 50% of the vote?

What does that mean? It means if Duke and Altair can split their own votes relatively evenly, they'll both move on. Luckily for the two dudes with 'tudes, this is precisely what I think will happen. My gut tells me Duke is the guy, but the first round was just way too kind to Altair. So, whom do I side with?

ALWAYS BET ON DUKE

Yeah, I'm betting on Duke. Call me crazy, but I think Altair put up an inflated result in his first match. I don't mean to detract too much from his performance, but I think he benefited in what I can only call "Wow, this guy doesn't look like a ****ing fruit" factor. Much like Big Boss against his three hapless Nintendo chumps, Altair stood there, in all his badass glory, surrounded by three cartoony nitwits. As appealing as he would have looked in a 1v1 match, the sea of toon crap made him even more appealing. Unfortunately for the assassin, that was an advantage he doesn't have this time around, and thank god for that.

I can't gush enough over how much Duke Nukem DOMINATES today's picture. Seriously, this is Big Boss level of picture sex. Granted, Altair still looks very good, but the picture belongs to Duke. Seeing as how both these guys are casual bait (to some extent, at least), I can see this really aiding Duke. Combine that with the fact that he beat another new character, Niko Bellic, easily in his last match, and I think he's our winner today.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUCbflBkIgo

Make sure to blast this before the match start k guys

Marth - 26%
Duke Nukem - 30%
Altair - 28%
Lucario - 16%
Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2008 8:36:40 PM | message detail
Lopen’s Analysis

So, Lucario, favorite for 1st here is now a total joke. That being said, I don't think he does as poorly as R1 implies. Contrary to what most people I'd assume though, I have the majority of Lucario's strength riding on the Pokemanz, not Brawl. I mean, let's face it, he simply wasn't that popular in Brawl. But in the Pokemon world he seems somewhat popular. Other than Mudkip I'd say he's the most popular post-GSC Pokemon. (Even if Bidoof would do better in the contest) Isaac, star of one of the few Nintendo RPGs not named Pokemon, might've done some damage to him (in fact, he probably did, considering how crappy Isaac did in proportion to Guybrush there). More than Marth can do, I bet.

Course, that doesn't mean he doesn't get a resounding last here. But it also means because most of his strength comes from Pokemon, Marth probably doesn't get hurt too much in this match. Think Kirby vs Lucas here as far as Brawl support split, but with Lucario actually having something else to back him up.

Now the difficulty here lies in placing Altair's strength. It's possible he's actually a force... or it's possible he benefited from a Ryu Hayabusa like situation from last year. Badass sticking out of a bunch of RPG characters, owns all, only to get everything turned around on him the next round, with other badasses in the fray. Once again, I think Guybrush tells the story, there. Altair really didn't do quite as well as his performances implied . That's only a tripling of Guybrush. The Duke almost managed that last year, boy.

What does that mean? That means the Duke is ready to kick some kick ass and chew bubble gum... and given that the Duke's opponent is an assassin, that's twice the ass to kick. And guess what? The Duke didn't bring twice as much gum. It's all about calling where the SFF lies. Some jackasses might think that last year supports the Duke folding first. The Duke doesn't buy it. Altair got the apathy vote from non GB players, the Duke had stiff competition from a variety of fanbases.

Expect the Duke to whoop that ass.

Lopen's prediction:
Marth – 29.02%
The Duke – 27.11%
Altair Country – 24.50%
Lucario – 19.37%



Transience’s Analysis

this match is a mess. three guys that could realistically finish in any order, and it's really difficult to analyze.

to start, we've got two Nintendo guys here, Marth and Lucario. the prevailing logic pre-contest was that Marth and Lucario would split votes, but given how awful Lucario did (almost losing to Isaac), wouldn't almost all the Smash votes go to Marth here? this is certainly a possibility. throw in that it makes logical sense for Altair and Duke Nukem to split the so-called "casual" votes and maybe Marth has a shot at placing despite Lucario.

Altair is really difficult to gauge. like Zack, he absolutely rocked his first round match, but given how bad Lucario seemed, was it really all that impressive? I say yes, but I have no idea just how good the performance was. Altair seems like a lock to place at the least, but if he wants to compete with Zack he probably needs to show that he's easily the strongest character here. I think he'll do well, but not THAT well.

then there's Duke Nukem.. well, Duke Nukem 3D came out on XBLA a couple days after his R1 match, but I doubt that matters much at all. Duke nearly beat Marth last round and while it's possible that he'll bomb (who remembers R2 last year?), he's the safer pick than Marth here.

what a messy match
three guys, all mediocre
all will lose to Zack

transience's prediction:

Altair - 32.44%
Duke Nukem - 28.55%
Marth - 26.55%
Lucario - 12.46%
Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2008 8:36:54 PM | message detail
Ngamer’s Analysis

Well would you look at that- one of the tournament's Elite characters has finally exceeded expectations! True, Link didn't blow us all away as he so often has in the past, but it seemed like the average pred I was seeing for him was right in that 49-52 range, and instead he's going to be finishing above 53 with ease. This goes along with my theory whereby "anti-favoriteFAQs" isn't going to be as big of a factor beyond the first round; it's not that people no longer LIKE Link/Seph/Snake etc etc, its just that after 7 straight years everyone is smart enough to know that they won't be threatened in the first round, and so its safe to throw their support to their second favorite character in the poll (Tifa, Falco, Zidane, or what have you). As we advance further into the bracket, though, a win from their favorites becomes less of a sure thing and so strengths should slowly return to more normal levels.

What remains to be seen is what kind of effect this trend will have on our joke characters- L-Block set the bar high with his momentum-gaining run to R6 last season, but I'm not at all convinced that he (or Bag or Cube) will be doing the same here in '08. They've already become entirely different animals by losing their "joke trends" and instead performing more or less like normal character of strength- maybe that's a sign that people were only supporting them out of disinterest in the other options, and as the field around them goes stronger they'll naturally weaken? Good gracious let's hope so!

Anyways, today- wowza, what a mess of a matchup! We knew Division One was going to be wild heading in, and boy has it lived up to the billing. Let's break out my new R1-based writeup format and get cracking!

Round One Values
Marth - 22.61% (based on '07 Kefka)
Duke - 21.34% (based on '07 Kefka)
Altair - 18.83% (based on '07 Guybrush)
Lucario - 12.80% (based on '07 Guybrush)

Now obviously that Altair number is a little low, because Guybrush looked a decent bit better last month than he did a year ago, but the point remains - everyone going crazy over him needs to take a step back and realize that he only blew out a guy who's as strong as Isaac. Not only that, but an Isaac who was being LFF'd by another Nintendo option! You don't exactly have to be a Titan of the industry to pull that off, and heck, I think even Duke could have done it, so Altair's going to have a difficult time finishing second tonight IMO.

Lucario... is just awful, no way around it. His only hope is that he shares less of a fanbase with Marth than he did Isaac- which I guess is ALMOST possible given their Nintendo handheld overlap, but nay, Luc must get almost all his votes from Brawl so it's much more likely that Marth murders him. I'd have to call last place a lock for the guy, and by a large margin.

The coolest battle should be for first place between Duke and Marth. Chalk me up as a big Duke disbeliever, but even I've been forced to warm up to him this past month: between making the Contest banner pic, dominating this match pic, and Forever and his taglines making him the best joke option of the bunch, I've got to believe Nukem has the upper hand in this group. Even so, I see Marth beating down Luc so effectively that he'll be able to make something of a run at Duke during the Day to keep this one interesting, and at the same time give himself enough of a gap to not be overcome by Altair's Xbox ASV.

Sooo Duke > Marth > Altair in a fairly tight one with Lucario lagging well behind ought to spin to something like...

Duke Nukem - 28.28%
Marth - 28.11%
Altair - 28.05%
Lucario - 15.56%

That looks... marvelous!

Ngamer Says: Duke > Marth
Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2008 8:37:46 PM | message detail
Guest’s Analysis - Gaddswell

*TEXT TO IMAGE REQUIRED*

In the next episode of Gaddswell: Master Predictor Extraordinaire!...

An assassin leaps from building to building!...

http://blog.wired.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/12/04/assassinscreedmidair.jpg

A graceful prince swings his sword!...

http://www.videogamesblogger.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/marth-unlocked.jpg

A man who chews bubble gum!...

http://www.ceramicspeed.com/images/image002.jpg

And an anthromorphic furry!?

http://killythefox.com/imagehouse/LucarioTF_full.png

Behold as these three marvellous specimens of men, as well as a dog, do battle above the rooftops!

http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/535/al08021915083binoutzd0vs3.jpg

Watch as these men partake in a contest of manly girth! Who will come out on top!

http://www.brawlsnapshots.com/snapshots/438.jpg

Can the Duke defend his title as the manliest man ever?

http://dorol.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/jeu_duke_3d_dorol.jpg

Or will he lose to one of his lithe competitors?

http://www.plunderbund.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/assassins-creed-20060921105332117.jpg

http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/2410/marth5kz.jpg

http://th01.deviantart.com/fs16/300W/f/2007/167/f/d/Lucario_Gijinka_Project_by_hangdok.jpg

You be the judge!

Be sure to watch!
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-34.jpg

Gaddswell predicts!

Marth - 26.15%
Duke Nukem - 25.28%
Altair - 34.10%
Lucario - 14.47%

Duke's goin' down!

(Psst, I really have no idea how this match is gonna go down. For all I know, Duke could take 1st here! Altair definitely deserves to be a favourite to advance though, after putting up 43% in round 1! And Lucario’s definitely not advancing after flopping big time in round 1! Isaac was so close to being here instead… Curse the Division of Death!)



Crew Consensus: So we got 3 on Altair > Duke (Molt, HM, Tran), 1 on Duke > Altair (Yo), 1 on Marth > Duke (Lopen), 1 on Duke > Marth (Ngamer), and 1 on Altair > Marth (Guest)

...well then
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/20/2008 8:40:18 PM | message detail
Altair > Marth ftw!

Man this half of the division really was a complete crapshoot.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
RPGGamer0 | Posted 10/20/2008 8:42:09 PM | message detail
Lucario > Marth for the entirely random upset!

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|PM|
http://img.imgcake.com//lastcalvin&hobbes.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 10/20/2008 8:42:24 PM | message detail
Time for my first ever 0 point match in this format.

Let's go Lucario!
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 97/128 Today's Match: Link > Shadow
Gaddswell | Posted 10/20/2008 8:43:15 PM | message detail

charmander6000 (#113)
Time for my first ever 0 point match in this format.

Let's go Lucario!




Save me Marth!
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/20/2008 8:43:34 PM | message detail
Come on Niko

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
The_Ocelot2 | Posted 10/20/2008 8:43:38 PM | message detail

RPGGamer0 (#392)
Lucario > Marth for the entirely random upset!



That's my bracket!
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Go Ducks Go!
http://img.imgcake.com/fallout_3.jpg
RPGGamer0 | Posted 10/20/2008 8:44:23 PM | message detail
I have Niko > Lucario. -_-

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|PM|
http://img.imgcake.com//lastcalvin&hobbes.jpg
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/20/2008 8:45:28 PM | message detail
Yeah, the second half of Division 1 was REALLY unpredictable.

Never before have I seen so many people dismiss a 43% performance

Again, you're really overrating Altair based on only 1 performance. He probably lucked out with a crappy fourpack that SFFed each other.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/20/2008 8:45:58 PM | message detail
Needs more Prince Marth lovin'!
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Mustache...and green...
Gaddswell | Posted 10/20/2008 8:47:28 PM | message detail
Get me half points in this match Marth!

(I have Lucario > Marth too!)
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaGWrPcjb8
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