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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 604

vash_131 | Posted 10/20/2008 4:38:27 AM | message detail
^ Just out of curiosity, ow much do you expect Altair to get in order to have a chance at making the division finals?
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Character Battle V (2006): 37th place
transience | Posted 10/20/2008 5:02:08 AM | message detail
he'd need a convincing win.
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
red sox 777 | Posted 10/20/2008 5:52:12 AM | message detail
Looking at round 1 trends, I'd say Zack is still good for 25% here, and Link probably ends around 52%. Zack will probably just barely double Zidane, and come a little short of avoiding the doubling from Link. However, Zack will avoid the doubling from Link the next two rounds.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 100/132 --- T-309 (97 way)
Bracket: Link > Zack --- Vote: Zack
voltch | Posted 10/20/2008 6:06:37 AM | message detail
Come on,i want to see Zack free of all the LFF nonsense,time to see his true potential.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
charmander6000 | Posted 10/20/2008 6:12:41 AM | message detail
Zidane is currently getting 21.01% on Link, last round he got 22.56%. Not too bad with Zack in the poll though it will probably drop throughout the day and Link has Wario holding him back.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 97/128 Today's Match: Link > Shadow
H__RR____H | Posted 10/20/2008 6:13:04 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3276
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2901

Vincent got 27.75% on Link's 51.19%, who was hindered by Zelda and Bidoof. Zack's currently getting 24.65% -- despite Zidane -- on Link's 50.75%, who is hindered by Wario...

...Zelda and Bidoof together should bother Link more than Wario by himself, and Zidane should be bothering Zack a decent bit. Not to take these numbers at face value because this isn't exactly the proper way to look at it, but this is killer for Zack. I did not see the footnote of FF7 and the star of a PSP game trying to look like Vincent here, especially since this round was to test how much people really cared for the guy without the Buster Sword and such. He has come out looking sharp in both controversial matches and old/new-Square-SFF matches, and the traditional FF7-look next round can't hurt his chances any. Altair/Duke/Marth (especially SFF'd) can't compare with this, period.

Yikes.
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Lobby Hero
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H__RR____H | Posted 10/20/2008 6:23:05 AM | message detail
And now, for my idea of fun: let's see how people think of Zack against bigger-name characters -- I don't really know how high people are taking him right now, but let's get him away from the chumps (barring Link!).....


Sora
Vivi
Yuna
Zack Fair


Kratos
Luigi
Ryu Hayabusa
Zack Fair
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Lobby Hero
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Xuxon | Posted 10/20/2008 6:37:27 AM | message detail
Sora > Zack > Vivi > Yuna for the first one, all I'm sure about for the second one is Zack gets first.

Zack > Luigi > Kratos > Ryu? I think Luigi would lose to any of them 1v1, though.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/20/2008 6:51:47 AM | message detail
Zack > Sora

I think Zack is stronger than any of these characters indirectly with the possible exception of Sora, and I do give Sora a small shot at first here, but I can't pick against FFVII and Black-haired Cloud to win the SFF battle. Sora isn't exactly good at Square SFF either, so Vivi probably has a decent chance to upset him for second.

Zack > Luigi

This one is really tough, because Luigi stands out as the lone Nintendo character in the poll. But Nintendo looks weaker in general this year, and Squall just might be able to 60-40 Luigi again if they met. As I said last night, I think Zack in not quite at Squall/Vincent level, but he's worth maybe 45% on them indirectly. Ryu Hayabusa shouldn't overlap too much with either character (more with Zack though), and Kratos probably won't overlap with Zack enough to give this one to Luigi. I wouldn't be surprised if Luigi won though.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 100/132 --- T-309 (97 way)
Bracket: Link > Zack --- Vote: Zack
H__RR____H | Posted 10/20/2008 6:52:13 AM | message detail
Yeah, figured Zack would be the favorite for the second one. That's fine -- it's more to see if people still aren't high on Zack or not.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/20/2008 6:57:39 AM | message detail
Vincent's percentage of Link/Vincent votes at this time (round 3): 32.63%
Zack's percentage of Link/Zack votes at this time: 32.66%

Does Zidane hurt Zack's propotion to Link more, or does Crono hurt Vincent's proportion to Link more?
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 100/132 --- T-309 (97 way)
Bracket: Link > Zack --- Vote: Zack
H__RR____H | Posted 10/20/2008 7:16:23 AM | message detail
Honestly, I would think Zidane would bother Zack more. They're both new-age Square, FF, and originally from the PS1 -- three things Crono/Vincent don't share. Not that it makes for a significant difference, given their popularity and demographics...but it makes sense.

Still, gotta consider how Like is doing this year compared to last year and decide how Wario is affecting him in comparison to Zelda/Bidoof if youre looking at how he's doin' on Link. It's still favorable though.
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Lobby Hero
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/20/2008 7:21:08 AM | message detail
Yeah, figured Zack would be the favorite for the second one. That's fine -- it's more to see if people still aren't high on Zack or not.

It's really hard to argue against Zack when he's putting near-elite numbers on Link.

Does Zidane hurt Zack's propotion to Link more, or does Crono hurt Vincent's proportion to Link more?

Zidane hurts Zack more than Crono hurts Vincent also Wario probably hurts Link more than Zero. I think after this performance I'd rank Zack as under Tifa. Altair is going to need to break 40% for him to have a chance IMO.

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 97/128 Today's Match: Link > Shadow
H__RR____H | Posted 10/20/2008 7:37:08 AM | message detail
I've got a topic up asking people to rank the Square characters right now, and here are the current results:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=46070587

Tifa - 79
Sora - 69
Zack - 54
Aeris - 52
Vivi - 46
Yuna - 41
Tidus - 38
Magus - 28
Seifer - 13
Shadow - 12



Mean anything to you guys? I see Zack putting up killer numbers right now despite Zidane, but I'm personally still cautious if he were to go up against playable characters from FF7, especially since they are arguably the two most beloved women Square has ever created. I also don't know if Sora would necessarily lose to Zack; he's got three KH games that have done very well for themselves on the PS2 and GBA, and -- today be damned -- I don't think Zack has the power of Squall strength-wise or SFF-wise. Today opens a world of opportunity for Zack to come near or on top, but I'm not completely sold he beats all of them.
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Lobby Hero
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Rufus Shinra 18 | Posted 10/20/2008 8:15:49 AM | message detail
Aww yeah I love this match. Link over 50 against decent competition, Zack looking more than legit, Zidane getting blasted by Zack and Wario looking quite decent despite Link in the poll (and he looked decent last round too, now that we know Zack is for real.)
Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2008 8:17:55 AM | message detail
GameZAQs is this legit?

ff7 obsessed weirdos here
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Moltar Status: augh
Zack/Wario/Link/Zidane - Bracket: Link > Shadow - Vote: Link (99/128)
BagFries | Posted 10/20/2008 8:39:03 AM | message detail
what in the what the god damn hell happened yesterday? REfaqs is the best faqs yet! So has anyone come with some sort of rational explanation as to how Jill turned around last years result with Ocelot getting MGS4? That's what you get for being called liquid ocelot like a lamer I guess.

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eat me
BagFries | Posted 10/20/2008 8:47:02 AM | message detail
also glad to see Zidane getting his guaranteed 18% of the vote.

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eat me
BagFries | Posted 10/20/2008 8:53:01 AM | message detail
Triple post time.

It appears that for some reason in this contest the obvious 1st place getters have been underperforming, like the general public know the top 2 advance, and are just throwing their support into the other 3 characters for the number 2 slot. We didn't have this apparent affect really affecting the clear locks for number 1 last year did we? I feel like this has been talked about before and it was generally thought it was having a larger affect this year, though I could be wrong. I'm just saying don't be so quick to hail Zack as a god. What he's doing is pretty impressive but I still think I'd feel good about taking people like Luigi and Sora over him. Maybe I'm being blind, but those Zack match-ups being asked seem a little ridiculous.

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eat me
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/20/2008 8:54:20 AM | message detail
Does Zidane hurt Zack's propotion to Link more, or does Crono hurt Vincent's proportion to Link more?

Crono and Zero were hurting Link more than Vincent.

Old Square and new Square don't overlap, as evidenced by Crono/Zidane, Crono/Vincent 1, Auron/Rydia and Zack/Cecil.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 10/20/2008 8:57:33 AM | message detail
Gotta agree with EC here. A lot of people seem to be putting Zack on a pretty high pedistal when we don't really have that great a read on his strength. Yeah he's looking pretty good here, but I think I'd wait until his inevitable Quarterfinals match before trying to attach any kind of strength to him.
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vcharon | Posted 10/20/2008 8:57:41 AM | message detail
"Don't overlap" and "Don't overlap as much" are two different things.

Also, go Zack. He's probably about where you put him on that list, though I don't agree with the placement of some of the other characters.
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:>
Xuxon | Posted 10/20/2008 9:00:40 AM | message detail
Even when you think about the NN under-performances, he's doing almost as well on Link as Vivi did on Snake, with another character from his series in the poll. And even SFFed Wario > Sackboy at least, if not Wesker.
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/20, Captain Crow defeated (14 attempts)
Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716
BagFries | Posted 10/20/2008 9:05:59 AM | message detail
If anything that part about Wario would only mean Link has more of a reason to be hindering Link... even if he only has 10%. I really don't understand what you're trying to say with that. It's basically two conflicting ideas.

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eat me
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/20/2008 9:10:40 AM | message detail
Altair has to bury his competition tomorrow if I'm to give him any sort of chance. The guy just strikes me as cool-looking casual bait. Cool-looking casual bait can get the job done against a Pokemon and obscure RPG characters, but against Link and FFVII?
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Xuxon | Posted 10/20/2008 9:12:59 AM | message detail
slightly hindered Link >>>>>>>> Snake
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/20, Captain Crow defeated (14 attempts)
Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/20/2008 9:13:16 AM | message detail
What kinda percentage do you guys think that Altair needs tomorrow to compete with Zack?
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BagFries | Posted 10/20/2008 9:13:36 AM | message detail
If that's at all in response to me -- or not -- I agree completely. Zack should be considered the heavy favorite over Altair at this point. Altair hasn't really proved anything up to this point either, and now Zack has this at least, even if I'm holding out final judgment until later rounds of just how impressive it is. That's not to say that Altair can't win, it just means Zack has shown more. I'm still holding out hope that Altair takes Zack down, and I think he has a damn good chance, but that doesn't mean he should be anywhere close to being favored to do it.

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eat me
H__RR____H | Posted 10/20/2008 10:00:25 AM | message detail
Old Square and new Square don't overlap, as evidenced by Crono/Zidane, Crono/Vincent 1, Auron/Rydia and Zack/Cecil.

I don't think you can fairly say Crono/Zidane isn't yet since Zidane impressed last round -- one could say he simply gets the ass-end of SFF. Not a great theory, but Crono/Zidane still isn't a good example. Crono/Vincent is different because they ARE close in strength and come from two of the biggest games here (which arguably didn't SFF each other in 2004), so you can't expect a lot of SFF. On top of that, Auron beat Rydia with ~22% and Zack beat Cecil with ~28%...it's hard to judge if Zack SFF'd Cecil based on 2005, and we never knew Rydia before. Saying Auron beating Rydia with ~22% isn't SFF is okay, maybe, but you can't follow it up with citing Zack beating Cecil much worse as another example of no SFF...

...you know, I'll just shut you up in an easier fashion. Cloud killed Kefka last year, Terra can thank her lucky stars Dante embarrassed her first in 2005 before Vincent in the next round, and the same goes to Celes with The Boss and Tifa. The last two are hypothetical, but do you care to disagree?

Even easier: why wouldn't there be an overlap? LoZ:OoT would probably beat LoZ:LttP worse than expected (though not too bad) and destroy LoZ, SMB3 would wipe the floor with SMG and soundly beat SM64, any 2D Mega Man will almost certainly beat any 3D Mega Man game hardcore, the same goes for Sonic games, I doubt any 3D Donkey Kong game could hold up to DKC1/2/3, Chrono Trigger would decimate Chrono Cross...I mean, the list continues for examples with games, and there's not a reason why it couldn't for characters either.




By the way BT, you still haven't acknowledged my account-bet challenge with you.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/20/2008 10:11:12 AM | message detail
Ignoring this current match for the moment, I would think there was some LFF between Crono and Vincent, but Crono probably hurt Link and Vincent about equally since Crono has a lot of reasons to share fanbase with Link: they have the 2 biggest games on arguably the strongest system, the SNES, and both are courageous time traveling silent protagonists of similar age who wield swords and cast magic. Vincent probably hurt Crono more than Link, and Link hurt Crono more than Vincent, although none of these overlaps are anything huge.

The thing is this makes Zack look really, really, good, as in better than Vincent good, but I guess you can account for it between the Brawl Deboost and Noble Niners underperforming this year. But don't be surprised if Zack beats Altair by 10%+ next round (which wouldn't require him being on Vincent's level to do).
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 100/132 --- T-309 (97 way)
Bracket: Link > Zack --- Vote: Zack
H__RR____H | Posted 10/20/2008 10:14:59 AM | message detail
You know, assuming our higher/highest expectations of Zack are fair (hardy har har), I'm going to be so mad if he was actually able to upset Mario in Link/Zack/Mario/MMX...yet couldn't directly face the winner of Vincent/Crono because of ****ing L-Block.

Just saying!
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/20/2008 10:31:45 AM | message detail
i am quite surprised Zidane isnt too far ahead of Wario here.

all those arguments for nothing.
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*is Dranze*
Link/Wario/Zack/Zidane - Bracket: Link > Zack - Vote: Zidane (99/112)
jonthomson | Posted 10/20/2008 10:33:15 AM | message detail
Link has Wario holding him back

wat
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H__RR____H | Posted 10/20/2008 10:34:44 AM | message detail
To be fair, anytime you have to resort to "well look at these three matches when he got percentage between __% and __%, so he could be really constant," your argument's not looking likely. Not impossible, per say, but I think it's only worked for L-Block to date.
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Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/20/2008 10:41:14 AM | message detail
Interestingly Vincent got only 3% more than Zack is on against Link without another Square character in the poll. Seems like being a FF7 character at worst puts you on the fringe of the Noble 9. -_-

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Smurf , The cream of Knuckles Fanboyism.
H__RR____H | Posted 10/20/2008 10:42:37 AM | message detail
This is why we need Cait Sith in a contest, people.
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2008 10:42:55 AM | message detail
Just to through my two cents into the whole "How strong is Zack?" talk, even with his great performance here today, you still have to remember what he got on Wario last round, Cecil or not.

No way is he up there with the near-elites like Vincent and Squall, and I wouldn't even put him up there with Sora and those around him yet, but I think this performance does prove he is at worst a solid midcarder. He's looking great for Round 3 too, so we should get a good read on him then.
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Moltar Status: augh
Zack/Wario/Link/Zidane - Bracket: Link > Shadow - Vote: Link (99/128)
Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/20/2008 10:47:39 AM | message detail
What I'd really like to see is how much he'd die if he came into contact with another FF7 character since there's absolutely no valid logic in picking him over another FF7 character that made the contest.

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Smurf , The cream of Knuckles Fanboyism.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/20/2008 10:49:45 AM | message detail
I just realized in my alt's bracket, I have Altair > Marth tomorrow. Combined with today's result, that will probably get it on the leaderboard before my actual account.

lol contest.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
RPGGamer0 | Posted 10/20/2008 10:50:47 AM | message detail
BLACK TURTLE,

You have not acknowledged Harrich's account bet. Are you back down despite saying that you'd take an account bet with someone that had equal or more karma than you!?


If this doesn't get his attention, he's backing down because he's afraid of the dark.

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|PM|
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H__RR____H | Posted 10/20/2008 10:51:40 AM | message detail
I would enjoy seeing Zack/Aeris right now. Zack looks killer today, but I wonder how well that would hold up against other playable characters from FF7 (...or Sephiroth). Zack's bound to be legit based on what we see today, but I still don't think that means he's favored specifically in the original-FF7 crowd like that.
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H__RR____H | Posted 10/20/2008 10:54:25 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
H__RR____H | Posted 10/20/2008 10:55:46 AM | message detail
Oh, and thank you RPG.

Just saying BT...you shot down HM's ZFS account because it was a month away from being two years old, and you made up rumors of Soul backing out of account bets to avoid him. I've never bothered account-betting before, and my account age and karma is older/more than theirs, easily...in fact, it beats your account too. No excuses this time.
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Lobby Hero
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BagFries | Posted 10/20/2008 10:56:22 AM | message detail
joketurtle

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eat me
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/20/2008 10:56:35 AM | message detail
Agreed. I won't pretend to know much about the FFVII fanbase, but the concept of a character who was in the game for all of five minutes (right?) beating a significant playable character is a difficult one to fathom for me.
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RPGGamer0 | Posted 10/20/2008 10:56:50 AM | message detail
I just want to see BT go down in burning flames.

for the lulz!

... And because he's so ****ing arrogant about MM > Snake that it's annoying.

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|PM|
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H__RR____H | Posted 10/20/2008 11:03:04 AM | message detail
I want to see him go down in flames too!

Unfortunately, this battle would be an uphill one for me. Solid Snake didn't really impress last round, Liquid didn't upset Luigi, Raiden should have been closer to MC, Kirby would have been closer to Big Boss if it wasn't for Lucas, and how did Revolver lose to Jill? Zero -- while losing -- showed Dedede and Pit who's boss and Mega Man performed better than ever when he doubled Nero. I'm only really making the bet because I'm a diehard fan of Solid Snake and hate Mega Man with all of my heart. Come on BT...let me die hard in this bet against you.
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Sarcasm Alert
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BagFries | Posted 10/20/2008 11:04:24 AM | message detail
I see what you did there.

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eat me
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/20/2008 11:06:00 AM | message detail
What is Turtle's side of the bet? That Mega Man will beat Snake in the division finals?
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
H__RR____H | Posted 10/20/2008 11:07:11 AM | message detail
More honestly BT, I'm super-pissed you picked Mewtwo > Pac-Man while I had my boy Ness advancing. I'm out for revenge. Watch your back.
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