GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 604
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/19/2008 6:18:41 PM | message detail |
|
JILL SANDWICH'D ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- "A joke format for a joke contest deserves joke winners." -Moltar ~*ST*~ Now Playing: Final Fantasy 4 DS, Spore, |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/19/2008 6:19:05 PM | message detail |
|
CRY SOME MORE! --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/19/2008 6:19:15 PM | message detail |
|
Time for GameZidaneAQs --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/19/2008 6:52:14 PM | message detail |
|
needs moar ocelotFAQs --- The Straight Up G The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/19/2008 7:10:27 PM | message detail |
|
So, who else agrees that a game's hype will do more for a character then a game's actual release? --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/19/2008 7:12:52 PM | message detail |
|
Match XXXIII: Zack Fair vs. Wario vs. Link vs. Zidane Tribal Last round: Zack Fair – 44.64% Wario – 33.09% Cecil Harvey – 16.35% Jade Curtiss – 5.92% Well I thought Zack would be fodder, but he proved me wrong and has quickly become one of the favourites to make it out of this division alongside Link. Even though Wario was crushed he still had a respectable performance though really he could have gotten 90% in this match and I’d still think he’d lose in this match. At first Cecil’s performance was fine, but after watching the performances of Kain and Rydia is Cecil really this weak or is Wario a near elite and Zack a noble nine character? You couldn’t even blame SFF because Rydia had Auron in her poll and she did just fine. Jade was one of two characters, the other suffering major SFF that failed to break 6%, that is all. Link – 60.72% Zidane Tribal – 17.69% Shadow the Hedgehog – 15.47% Luke fon Fabre – 6.12% Despite getting the highest percent of the contest Link’s performance wasn’t impressive though it was bad either and unless a certain joke ruins it Link should still be the favourite to win the contest. Zidane shocks me by easily getting by Shadow despite not doing anything last year though I really have to chalk this up to Sonic characters failing left and right in this contest. Two matches in a two Tales of characters have already been made a joke; at least Luke was able to perform better against a stronger opponent. Analysis: So we’re one match in the first round and already one of my characters that I have winning has been eliminated in round 1. Looking at this group of characters it looks like this could have been a first round match. Link is going to crush everyone while SFF another character while the other two characters fight for second which may or may not be a close match. Link should have no problem getting first in this match and he shouldn’t have many problems breaking 50% either. Even though the other two characters are stronger than the two eliminated from last year Link will be SFF Wario done to Luke levels and the combination of Zack and Wario won’t be taking over 10% away from Link. If anything I can see Link approaching 55% as the final percent. Without Link in the poll it would be hard to make an argument that Wario can advance especially after his loss against Zack and now with Link in the poll the only thing left to wonder is how little will Wario get. Last year against Sephiroth Wario was unable to break 10% because of being SFF against Fox and possibly Meta Knight. Since Link is stronger than Sephiroth and is known to be good at SFF characters Wario will easily fail to break 10% and will try to redeem himself by trying to outdo Luke. The highly debated match of this round was suppose to be between Zack and Shadow, though with the Zidane upset the match could either end up close or someone could end up SFF the other. Right now Zack is the favourite to come in second though I think the board is overrating his strength. Zack was able to get 57.43% against Wario, Wario is a really low mid carder and while you don’t need much strength to get out of this division and Zack is still one of the favourites that doesn’t mean he’ll be worth that much once this is all over. Of course Zack also got 73.20% on Cecil while Master Chief and Auron were only able to get 59.16% and 69.32% on the FFIV character in their match respectively. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/19/2008 7:13:06 PM | message detail |
| Zidane has a decent chance at beating Zack in this
match. He was able to defeat Shadow and while some of it was Shadow
failing some of it was Zidane doing well. A theory being thrown around
is that Zidane will benefit from Zack not having his Buster Sword and
while the picture has helped characters in the past I don’t think the
sword gives Zack much strength. People will vote for Zack because they
know him. On the flip side of things I don’t think Zidane will get SFF
by Zack because I don’t see Zack having the hardcore fanbase needed to
SFF someone, if anything Zidane has a better chance at SFF Zack. Link will take first while Zack and Zidane fight for second. Zack’s first match had a lot of apathy in it and if he wants to come out of this division he’ll have to prove his hardcore fanbase to us in this match. For whatever reason Zidane has shown that he has much more strength than he did last year and if Zack fails to live up to the hype Zidane could potentially steal another victory. charmander6000’s Bracket: Link > Shadow charmander6000’s Prediction: Link – 55.93%, Zack – 18.77%, Zidane – 16.98%, Wario – 8.32% --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 95/124 Today's Match: Kratos > Ocelot |
| therealmnm | Posted 10/19/2008 7:13:39 PM | message detail |
|
Noticed some Kratos discussion in the last topic. I was in the middle of typing this up before it closed: Why so much Kratos disrespect? He probably hasn't reached Dante yet, but I certainly wouldn't say that is his ceiling as well. In 2k6, Kratos was stronger than Dante appeared to be in 2k2. I'm using 2k6 Kratos due to the game being out over a year, approximately the same with Dante in 2k2. Now Kratos has had 2 releases since then, one absolutely huge in God of War 2, and then a decent PSP release. I'd say that the combination of GoW, GoW2, and CoO give Kratos do just as much for Kratos as DMC 1-3 did for Dante in terms of exposure. The God of War games were incredibly hyped and marketed, and Kratos really got his name out there behind that massive Sony campaign. Kratos certainly now has the tools behind him to be every bit as popular as Dante was pre-DMC4. The only difference is what character is intrinsically more popular by design. And even looking at last year, Kratos did put up a strong showing. I never really bought into it being him purely in the right place and the right time. Not just anybody could have done what he did last year. And looking at Kratos's and Dante's last match last year, they weren't that far off with similar matchups. The only difference was Master Chief and the hardcore Xbox fanbase for Dante vs. a strong Riku for Kratos. And Dante did accordingly worse due to the stronger competition. Of course, I'd give Dante the edge for how well they did based in those matchups, but Kratos didn't do significantly worse. Of course Dante is a whole new beast with his introduction to a new fanbase. But seeing how Dante has been a Top 20 character since 2k5, I see no reason why Kratos can't be a Top 20 character now. He's certainly done everything right to build up that kind of popularity... --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| transience | Posted 10/19/2008 7:13:56 PM | message detail |
|
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/23/2005 7:22:58 PM | Message Detail TRE, you're saving all these topics? o_O Yep, so don't say anything you wouldn't want to be quoted three years from now. =D TRE is prophetic. --- xyzzy la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/19/2008 7:14:34 PM | message detail |
|
So, who else agrees that a game's hype will do more for a character then a game's actual release? Only for really hyped games like Brawl. For example I don't see CTDS doing anything for Crono and fans until it's released. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 95/124 Today's Match: Kratos > Ocelot |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/19/2008 7:15:54 PM | message detail |
|
For example I don't see CTDS doing anything for Crono and fans until it's released. Chrono characters have been performing pretty well in this contest... --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/19/2008 7:21:35 PM | message detail |
|
Frog did exactly as expected, and Magus is hard to gauge given the fact that Sandbag was probably hurting Sonic a bit. --- I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg |
| ZFS | Posted 10/19/2008 7:22:28 PM | message detail |
|
So, who else agrees that a game's hype will do more for a character then a game's actual release? It all depends on the game and the situation. --- six bullets. more than enough to kill anything that moves. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/19/2008 7:25:24 PM | message detail |
|
HM nailed it right on the head. A game like Brawl that gets hyped to
all hell makes it hard to live up to the hype, more often than not
resulting in disappointment, whereas something like CT:DS merely
exposes Chrono Trigger to new fans and gets old fans to replay the game. --- I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/19/2008 7:28:48 PM | message detail |
|
And to respond to Ngamer, I think Sony needs to get their heads out of
their asses with the PS3 before Kratos will be beating Dante. If GoW3
was out right now, I wouldn't expect it to do too much for Kratos. --- I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg |
| therealmnm | Posted 10/19/2008 7:29:36 PM | message detail |
|
And to piggyback off of my last post, what's up with so much Jill
surprise in the last topic or 2? Why is this result baffling to so many
people? I could see a few people being surprised, but not baffled. Last year, Ocelot edged out Jill in a match where Cloud
was there dominating the votes. In a much more even matchup, Jill edges
out Ocelot (MGS4 aside). My first thoughts were that either FF7 SFFs RE
more than MGS, or that as someone said earlier, Ocelot simply has more
hardcore fans, which makes perfect sense given the MGS fanbase (Snake
> Sephiroth in the Battle Royal, The Boss > Tails, etc.). I mean, what kind of boost were you expecting from MGS4? I thought Ocelot was doing just fine. Jill just bounced back from that match last year. --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| creativename | Posted 10/19/2008 7:33:56 PM | message detail |
|
It all depends on the game and the situation. Indeed. I think in the vast majority of cases, a game's actual release will matter much much more than hype. But there are some few games whose hype is just off the charts. For them, the hype wearing off might matter more than the actual release of the game. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| transience | Posted 10/19/2008 7:35:29 PM | message detail |
|
therealmnm | Posted 10/19/2008 10:29:36 PM | message detail | #016 And to piggyback off of my last post, what's up with so much Jill surprise in the last topic or 2? Why is this result baffling to so many people? I could see a few people being surprised, but not baffled. Last year, Ocelot edged out Jill in a match where Cloud was there dominating the votes. In a much more even matchup, Jill edges out Ocelot (MGS4 aside). My first thoughts were that either FF7 SFFs RE more than MGS, or that as someone said earlier, Ocelot simply has more hardcore fans, which makes perfect sense given the MGS fanbase (Snake > Sephiroth in the Battle Royal, The Boss > Tails, etc.). I didn't see a single post of this nature pre-match. it just reeks of spin. Ocelot > Jill. MGS4. Jill > Ocelot. it's pretty damn surprising to me! especially since FF7/MGS is far more accepted than FF7/RE. not that either are legit, mind you, just saying that it gets mentioned more (or at all) --- xyzzy la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/19/2008 7:38:55 PM | message detail |
|
And those predictions weren't too crazy looking at the results. Seeing as how the strongest character he faced before the Final Four could only get 45% on him, picking him to get upset was a bad move unless you somehow predicted the sprite round changing to Round 4. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| Japago | Posted 10/19/2008 7:40:09 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/19/2008 7:46:43 PM | message detail |
|
gogogo Zidane! --- (|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08) . /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2008 7:51:25 PM | message detail |
|
Division 1: Round 2 - Match 33 – Zack Fair vs. Wario vs. Link vs. Zidane Tribal Moltar’s Analysis Zack Round 1 - 44.64% vs. Wario, Cecil and Jade Black-haired Cloud confirmed Wario Round 1 - 33.09% vs. Zack, Cecil and Jade Wario does a bit worse that most expected Link Round 1 - 60.72% vs. Zidane, Shadow and Luke What is this only average blowout. I’m disappointed, Link. Zidane Round 1 - 17.49% vs. Link, Shadow and Luke Steals Shadow’s spot in Round 2. I can never forgive him. Ugh, this division again. Well, after getting every match here in Round 1 wrong, and now that it’s impossible for me to get full points on any remaining match in this division, maybe I can turn my luck around with these analyses. In Round 1, Zack beat Wario harder than most expected. This could be because no one really cares for Wario, or it could be that Zack has some legit strength behind him. I’m thinking a little of column A and a little of column B. As for Link and Zidane, well, Zidane held up better in his fourpack than most expected. He only dropped about 1.5% from Alucard/Liquid/Ness to Link/Shadow/Luke. Sure, it still took a SFFed Shadow for him to get by, but it’s still a bit impressive considering Zidane has done nothing praise-worthy before. So that leads us to this match right here. Link obviously takes first, and with Wario being his only Nintendo competition, expect Link to dominate again. Wario will end up looking really bad too, I mean, really, who WANTS to vote for Wario? eww As for second, there’s some talk going on that Zidane could take it. I mean, it’s possible if it turns out that Zack beat an uber-weak Wario. Still, I’m not banking on that. I think Zack got some legitimate midcard strength on him. Plus, he’s FF7, and between FF7 and FF9 SFF, I’m siding with the 7. I doubted the black-haired cloud last time, but since the tide has turned, I’ll go with him here. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Link > Shadow (augh zidane) Moltar’s Prediction is: Link: 52% - Zack: 23% - Zidane: 16% - Wario: 9% Heroic Mario’s Analysis I'm glad we're getting this match out of the way early. Ever since Zidane won, there's been some bad arguments from both sides about who wins and why. It's hard to keep arguing this match because it all relies on a couple of things -- how does SFF play out and does Zidane's 'core fanbase' give him the edge with Link sucking up over half the votes. It wouldn't surprise me if both were in Zidane's favor, but I'm thinking SFF favors Zack (FFVII vs. FFIX) and in terms of 'devoted fanbases' it's hard to argue against FFVII. Some will say that Zack doesn't have any hardcore fans, but given how many Zack fans are on the board, I'm not buyin' it. And there not being much percentage to go around should make Crisis Core a bigger factor -- if he's got a lot of core fans, this would be where they came from. There is some concern about how many FFVII fans will abandon Zack for Link here, though. Zack's pic, while probably the best in the match with Zidane's, doesn't look nearly as good as it did in round 1, with the Buster Sword prominently displayed. I doubted it would matter before, but seeing his pic this round makes me wonder. He did have a killer pic advantage there. Zidane supporters can make a solid argument for taking him here (not the least of which is a random FF9 boost from round 1 Snake for champion confirmed!!), but I still like Zack to take it easy. Zack has a fanbase, that much is certain -- you don't score 44% in a match entirely on apathy. SFF is a bit concerning, but the Square fanbase is more likely to side with a NPC from FFVII than a FFIX, I would think. And ultimately, this is Zidane -- he's not some paragon of strength, and most would agree he wouldn't match Zack's showing in round 1. Says it all to me. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2008 7:51:52 PM | message detail |
|
We'll see how this goes. Prediction: Link - 51% ; Zack - 22%; Zidane - 17% ; Wario - 10% Vote: Zack Yoblazer’s Analysis Woohoo, we've finally reached the halfway point! First rounds are always a bit of a chore to get through, but we'll all be delighted to know that the next month is where the real action is. It will go by a lot faster, and we'll be witnessing stronger, more proven characters go at it (although you wouldn't completely think so judging by who's in this match). Anyway, kicking off the contest's second half are Zack Fair, Link, Wario, and Zidane. After what we've seen, this looks like one of Round 2's easier matches, so let's bask in the calmness before we get our asses collectively skewered in the upcoming days and weeks. First and fourth place couldn't be any more obvious. There's Link, he kicks ass, he's made a career out of crushing opponents like these, and he'll do it yet again. Annoyingly for the Hylian Hammer, he's gotten one of his worst pictures ever, so expect an underperformance. It shouldn't mean much, but it may add some fuel to the Cloud > Link fire (is it me, or is that fire always in desperate need of fuel?). On the other end of the spectrum is Wario. Wario already hurt most of our brackets a month ago, and he'll now be punished for it by being fed to the meanest SFF machine ever. I would have probably given Wario under 10% in normal circumstances, but his picture actually ain't bad, and I must stress once again that Link's is uncharacteristically awful. Ushering the Nintendo guys aside, it's the Final Fantasy representatives who account for what little intrigue lies here. Zack and Zidane were both very impressive in Round 1, and this has led a few wayward souls to argue that the battle between them may be close. Personally, I'm not sure why. Yes, Zidane beat (an SFF'd) Shadow, but Zack earned 44.6% in his match. Could you guys imagine Zidane netting 44.6% in any fourway match? Unless he's up against that von Fabre guy and a duo of Tanners, I can't. Even if you argue that Link functions as a massive percentage vacuum and completely changes the match dynamics, Zidane still doesn't have much of a chance. Zack Fair is from Final Fantasy VII. If you're from one of the lesser FF titles and your name isn't Squall or Auron, you will be SFF'd by anything from FFVII. That optional character. That enemy. That one chair in the corner. ANYTHING from FFVII will SFF you. Zidane is about to learn this firsthand, and it won't be pretty. But it will be funny! hail ZackFAQs Zack Fair - 25% Wario - 10% Link - 50% Zidane - 15% Lopen’s Analysis So, a few weeks ago, I thought Zidane was going to win second here. Obviously, Wario was to be counted out due to ol' Chmofsky destroying him with some of the Nintendo SFF. And I figured that while Black Haired Cloud DID manage well over 40% in his match, it was mostly due to people utterly not caring about his opponents, and once Link was there (and Zidane, who does have a fanbase, even if it is small) his percentage would plummet. Then, some... weird things happened. First Kain just looks really good in his match. I mean, even if you assume (bad idea!) that MC has dropped all the way back to 2006 levels, Kain still did way better than one should expect after seeing Cecil. Meanwhile, ~The Goddess Rydia~ backs him up and says "that was no fluke" by outdoing Cecil's percentage against much stronger competition. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2008 7:52:27 PM | message detail |
|
So what does that mean as it relates to this match? It means that while
I utterly don't understand it, Zack has a legit fanbase, and that
fanbase must
have SFFed Cecil. Maybe I underestimated the number of people on this
site who've gotten around to playing Crisis Core? I don't know. If Zack
can SFF Cecil (though to be fair, Cecil's name being "Harvey" probably
didn't do him any favors... I swear when GameFAQers started calling him
that I was like "is that a fanmade name") that bad, he can probably SFF
Zidane too. I do think Zack does a lot worse here than should be
expected from his performance last round, but given that Zidane didn't
have much percentage to work with in the first place, Zack should win. Though I certainly do understand why the people who've actually played Crisis Core love them some Zack. After about 15 hours into the game, I am now a convert to ZackFAQs, and will be pulling for him here. Go Zack, go! Lopen's prediction: Chmofsky – 55.62% ZackFAQs – 18.83% Zidane – 16.03% Wario – 9.52% Transience’s Analysis round 2! the contest is officially half over. the first round always lasts forever, but from here the thing just flies. now that all the weakass fodder has been mostly removed, we've got Real Matches and data on everyone, so it's a lot more interesting to analyze. now then... IIIII AM ZACK FAIR I'M CLOUDDDDDDDDD WITH BLACK HAIR Zack is the clear favourite here, having put up a big percentage on a well-known (though not well-liked) Mario character and two other RPG guys, one of which shares the same series as him. everything we've seen over the last month has pointed to Zack being pretty good - two FF4 characters surpassed expectations, mostly because Zack set the bar so low after he murdered Cecil. characters have struggled to get big percentages, but Zack put up almost 45%. strength-wise, you have to put him above Zidane. there are four arguments against Zack, and they're all kind of weak, but still notable: 1.) Zack had a fourpack of suck - who cares about Wario, Cecil is the definition of bland, and BUSTER SWORD HOLY CRAP VOTE VOTE VOTE. now he's going up against the strongest character of all time. how strong is the Zack fanbase? 2.) FF9 has looked good this year - MGS4 looks to be the real deal, but Vivi still put up a hell of a show on Snake, and Zidane impressed everyone with his win over Shadow. (it was impressive enough that people are screaming SFF. hmm.) if there is some odd FF9 boost this year and the characters are finally getting the respect they deserve, Zidane may be pretty darn good. 3.) Zack is a fairly (ha ha) unknown quantity to GameFAQs - yes, he's FF7, but who the hell is Zack Fair when he doesn't have a cool picture that says "yes, I'm the FF7 Guy"? no sword, half a face shot, that generic name. no SOLDIER gear, no buster sword, no FF7 style. just a half a face. if there's a recognizability issue, it will really hurt Zack. 4.) where will the Final Fantasy fanbase side? with the FF7 NPC / PSP character, or the FF9 main? yes, FF7 is obviously stronger than FF9, but how much does his role matter? the answers to all these may push someone towards Zidane, and I can see why they'd think that way, but it's hopeful thinking at best. Zack just dropped 45% on a fourpack. Mewtwo couldn't do that and it was all Nintendo and Pac-Man. Mega Man had a weaker pack and could only get 51%. the only time the Final Fantasy pecking order has been upset, to my knowledge, was Squall vs. Aeris vs. Sora last year. I'm not calling for an FF9 character to top an FF7 one. Vivi, maybe, but not Zidane. I'd like to, though! I like seeing Zidane do well. these are two of the three FF mains that I really like (Cloud being the third) so I can't be too bothered either way. DISSIDIA BOOST ZIDANE OWNS FF7 I wish this were true |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2008 7:52:52 PM | message detail |
|
transience's prediction: Link with 50.67% Zack with 24.35% Zidane with 16.43% Wario with 8.55% Ngamer’s Analysis Haha, now that's more like it! Jill over Ocelot in convincing fashion only 12 months after we'd seen Ocelot over Jill in convincing fasion- and this despite all evidence and common sense pointing to the contrary. Results like this are exactly what makes these Contests so enjoyable! I guess there's a couple ways to puzzle this upset out... did the combined FF7 might of Cloud and Zolom suck up so much of the casual vote that Jill was ruined while Ocelot's more hardcore fanbase won out? Did Kratos kill Ocelot by being the bigger PS2/3 star, while Jill escaped by still having RE's GameCube appeal to fall back on? Have we just underestimated the impact of Umbrella Chronicles, and perhaps the series-wide RE boost has more to do with UC than it does RE5 hype? Plenty of questions, so its a good thing Leon and Jill will be involved in very interesting R2 matchups and will hopefully yield some answers. For tonight... oh shoot! I'm working on this Excel sheet with everyone's R1 results and preliminary x-stats that I wanted to break out starting tonight, but I don't have it handy at the moment. Guess I'll just have to wing it for this one and get that sheet rolling tomorrow night... but yeah, there's going to be a new format to my writeups starting soon. But for now, old format a'hoy! Last Known Values: Link - 59.90% (2007) Wario - 17.68% (2007) Zack - new Zidane - 15.71% (2007) I heard all the arguments for Zidane that were being tossed around in Stats last night- his fanbase is more hardcore than Zack's, that gives him the advantage when facing casual vote eating machine Link, or else maybe Zack was all Buster Sword last round and without it he'll come back down to earth. Eh, reasonable points, but Zack blew me away too much to give that upset any real consideration, sorry. ESPECIALLY after seeing what Rydia and Kain have been worth- even assuming Cecil's naturally the weakest of the three, it's got to take some serious appeal to pound FF4 anything into the ground like that this season. Zidane should have a decent enough showing, but I would be very surprised if he was ever in serious contention for advancement here. As for the Nintendo side of this poll, there isn't really that much to say. Link ought to serve notice that he's still the class of the NN while owning Wario so hard that he'll never come within two miles of third place- not that he would have even outside of an SFF situation. As to where exactly Link falls, that's tough to say... but the 50% ballpark that most seem to be crediting him with seems about right. So Link >> Zack > Zidane >> Wario ought to result in something along the lines of... Link - 52.91% Zack Fair - 20.94% Zidane Tribal - 16.16% Wario - 9.99% Bah, just can't justify Zack any higher, not with Zidane in the mix limiting his appeal... Oh well, come on BusterSwordFAQs! Ngamer Says: Link > Zack Guest’s Analysis - KamikazePotato KP's Analysis Match 33: Zack vs. Wario vs. Link vs. Zidane When I picked Zidane to go the Quarterfinals, I figured on the slim chance that it actually worked that R2 would be a lock if Zidane beat Shadow. After all, Wario would be crushed by Link, and Zack? He was going to flop, obviously. I mean, come on, he barely gets any screentime, he's the main character of a PSP game...what could he do? |
| therealmnm | Posted 10/19/2008 7:53:35 PM | message detail |
|
I didn't see a single post of this nature pre-match. it just reeks of spin. Uh, forgive me for not posting every thought I have on here. Regardless, this has nothing to do with spin. I've always thought MGS characters had a hardcore fanbase. I have nothing to spin. I picked Ocelot as well, but seeing Jill win doesn't baffle me. What I posted was the first thing that came to my mind after seeing Jill beat Ocelot. --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2008 7:53:36 PM | message detail |
| Well, this bracket has made fools of everybody.
Still, I believe that Zidane is going to beat out Zack, for several
reasons. First, let's look at Wario. People favored him over Zack
because of Cecil LFFing a little and a Brawl boost on the way. Zack
proceeded to embarrass Wario and make himself look great in the
process...however, this was back when we thought Nintendo wasn't a step
below what it usually is this contest. So far Brawl has only boosted
Ike and Meta-Knight, and they were the two who were absolutely going to
get boosted. http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3261&num=4 http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3258&num=4 Olimar and Diddy proved that you're only getting boosts if the Brawl fanbase really favors you, and Wario is even lower on the SSB totem pole than they are, both casually and competitively. When it comes down to it, Wario probably didn't boost at all from last year. Zack still impressed, but the it looks a lot less impressive when you realize how pathetic Wario truly is. I also have a theory that Zack overperformed in that match because of - bear with me - his match pic. More specifically, the airplane wing on his back. http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb7/cb7-01.jpg Come on, you can't not stick the Buster Sword on someone (or any sword, really) and not expect them to do better. Especially when a casual's other options are Androgynous Male, Even More Andrgynous Male, and Wario. The badass casual vote all went to Zack, and with Link in this poll and this round being face shots, he's not going to have it anymore. I also don't buy into Cecil LFFing Zack. There was a little, but Old Square is very separate from New Square. Onto Zidane. Really, this guy shouldn't even be in it. He got destroyed by Crono and got 19% in his match last year. How does he go from that to beating out Shadow and possibly Zack? Well, Shadow was probably SFFd some, but I have a different theory. First, he has a dedicated fanbase. It doesn't help characters often, but when Link is in the poll and munching on all the casual votes... It's the only explanation I can think of for getting 19% on Alucard/Liquid/Ness and then 18% on Link/Shadow/Luke. It also helpes explain Vivi apparently not being SFFd by Sephiroth back in 2005. The second is simply the pic factor; Dissidia>that fugly FFIX concept art. Zack, on the other hand, does not have a dedicated fanbase. Not as much, anyway. He simply doesn't get enough screentime in FF7, and Crisis Core is not that popular. I doubt he gets any serious backing from the FF7 voting block. It's an interesting setup. On one hand, it's the main character of FFIX versus a side character from FFVII. On the other hand, it's the main character of FFIX versus a side character from FFVII. Some people are calling for Zack's FF7 pedigree to SFF Zidane into the ground, but if Vivi managed to not get SFFd by Sephiroth back in 2k5, I doubt Zack is going to fare any better. I think Zidane has it in him. The Z in GameZAQs can stand for another character, you know... Oh, forgot to talk about Link. Uhhh Nintendo decrease, still gonna dominate, LFF with Wario so maybe not as much as last match. KP's Bracket: Zidane. Pity, because even if this works I called nearly every other upset wrong. KP's Vote: Who do you think? KP's Prediction: Link: 57% Zidane: 17.2% Zack: 16.8% Wario: 9% Crew Consensus: Link > Zack, but KP is hoping lightning strikes twice. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/19/2008 7:58:41 PM | message detail |
|
No offense guys, but if I'm the only guy to pick Zidane for the 2nd time in a row and it works again I'm going to laugh so much. come on Zidane, I'm starting to get gloaty pre-match when you're the outside upset pick stop doing that to me --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/19/2008 8:10:39 PM | message detail |
|
I'm picking Zidane though I'm not part of the contest analysis crew. --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/19/2008 8:14:09 PM | message detail |
|
I know I have Zack winning, but at least I'm giving Zidane a chance to win, that's more than what the Analysis Crew is saying. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 95/124 Today's Match: Kratos > Ocelot |
| vcharon | Posted 10/19/2008 8:14:56 PM | message detail |
|
More hilariously bad overestimations for the NN from you guys? I think so! --- :> |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/19/2008 8:15:15 PM | message detail |
|
Zidane just always gets his static percentage of around 18%... it just
makes me think he might still get that and be second with Link sucking
up all the votes.. I dunno. I'm not feeling easy about this match. --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| transience | Posted 10/19/2008 8:22:32 PM | message detail |
|
"Zidane is static" is the best argument since, well, I can't come up with a good punchline --- xyzzy la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la |
| BDawg | Posted 10/19/2008 8:28:48 PM | message detail |
|
I see a stat topic got filled up with Jill sammiches. I approve
completely illogical upsets that don't involve jokes. So Zidane can do
that if he wants but it's probably even less likely than this was. --- Should I start running now? |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/19/2008 8:37:20 PM | message detail |
|
Zidane is static? That's a terrible argument. He just happened to get roughly the same percentage in all 2 of hi smatches. If he breaks 15% I'll be surprised. --- I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg |
| wavedash101 | Posted 10/19/2008 8:38:03 PM | message detail |
|
awww yeah Two Dissidia mentions --- Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude! Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! |
| transience | Posted 10/19/2008 8:43:43 PM | message detail |
|
there are arguments to be made for Zidane, but they have nothing to do
with Zidane being "static". that's just a terrible argument. not even Phoenix is static -- not even close. --- xyzzy la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la |
| Tohoya | Posted 10/19/2008 8:49:42 PM | message detail |
|
I don't think Brawl hype is backlashing or anything. In fact, I think
Brawl is still helping a lot of characters... but brawl boost is not
enough to counteract nintendo deboost owing to the Wii being
increasingly abandoned by hardcore gamers. --- "There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20 |
| Tohoya | Posted 10/19/2008 8:50:48 PM | message detail |
| He only lost 1% against significantly more
difficult competition. Either he's boosted through the roof inbetween
years for no explicable reason, or he's largely static. --- "There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20 |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/19/2008 8:53:07 PM | message detail |
| Personally I don't think Zack has that much
strength, 58% on Wario is not that great especially since Brawl didn't
do anything to Brawl characters. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 95/124 Today's Match: Kratos > Ocelot |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/19/2008 8:55:07 PM | message detail |
|
He only lost 1% against significantly more difficult competition.
Either he's boosted through the roof inbetween years for no explicable
reason, or he's largely static. Or Link/Shadow SFF and Luke's complete weakness make up for the difference. --- I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg |
| paraboxx | Posted 10/19/2008 8:55:14 PM | message detail |
| I just realized I almost got out of this mess of a R1 without a one-point match. (Thanks to having DK > Tidus.) Damn you, Failselot!! |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/19/2008 8:55:16 PM | message detail |
|
charmander6000 (#040) Same. I think he's been really overrated and only did so well cuz of the Buster Sword, which he doesn't have to fall back on this time. --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/19/2008 8:57:06 PM | message detail |
|
Personally, I believe Zack and Altair are being overrated to hell and back. They've only had one match, after all. --- Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/19/2008 8:57:18 PM | message detail |
|
The thing is Zidane's competition last year covered a much broader
range of fanbases. That, and the entire Noble Nine has had difficulty
getting really high percentages this year. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way) Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus |
| therealmnm | Posted 10/19/2008 8:57:31 PM | message detail |
|
augh, get these buster sword arguments out of here --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| ZFS | Posted 10/19/2008 8:58:06 PM | message detail |
|
Zack's pic this time around is definitely a lot worse than he had in
round 1, but I don't think it'll be the difference maker in this one. --- six bullets. more than enough to kill anything that moves. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/19/2008 8:58:25 PM | message detail |
|
2 more minutes till second round! --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/rydia.gif http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| Gaddswell | Posted 10/19/2008 8:58:59 PM | message detail |
|
Fayt_Esteed (#044) Same here. We should wait until we see them both in round 2 before making any definite calls. --- sig |
| transience | Posted 10/19/2008 8:59:20 PM | message detail |
|
Zidane time 19%FAQs gogo --- xyzzy la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la |
