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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 603

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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/19/2008 5:03:11 PM | message detail

And yeah, this whole idea of Ocelot not boosting from MGS4 is being exaggerated -- this is a clear boost when you consider who he used to keep company.

Uh, the company he kept last year was, y'know, Jill. I don't see how you could possibly spin this into saying Ocelot is stronger this year.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/19/2008 5:04:03 PM | message detail

Id argue Raiden got the boost as well. He got closer to MC than what I had thought.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/19/2008 5:04:05 PM | message detail

Um...WTF kind of response is this? Relax buddy.

The severity of the response is proportional to the poor logic it addresses. And you've been getting it from me quite a bit lately, so don't act surprised.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/19/2008 5:04:10 PM | message detail

Neither Ocelot or Jill would've been doing nearly as well on Kratos as they are today. They both boosted.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/19/2008 5:04:13 PM | message detail

Resident Evil series-spanning boost

god it gives me chills every time
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/19/2008 5:06:11 PM | message detail

But what gave Jill this kind of boost?

I doubt Umbrella Chronicles gave her that mucn of a boost.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/19/2008 5:07:59 PM | message detail

I don't know.

But I also ignoring results, however illogical they may be, isn't smart. Chris looked great, Leon looked great, and now Jill looks great. For whatever reason, this site likes RE more now. It could still be a bunch of coincidences, but that's kind of doubtful.

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Bracket:
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/19/2008 5:08:39 PM | message detail

Neither Ocelot or Jill would've been doing nearly as well on Kratos as they are today. They both boosted.

Nonsense. Slightly worse than 60/40 on Kratos is not particularly impressive. Even if you have a high opinion of Kratos (say, 28% on BL) that's not very different from where Ocelot and Jill have resided in the past.
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transience | Posted 10/19/2008 5:11:44 PM | message detail

28% is a high opinion of Kratos? I'd think that would be a little low.

heck, he was at 28% in 2006, pre-GOW2. I don't trust 2006 stats but the point stands.
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FFDragon | Posted 10/19/2008 5:11:54 PM | message detail

For whatever reason, this site likes RE more now.

GoodTasteFAQs
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/19/2008 5:12:11 PM | message detail

Even if you have a high opinion of Kratos (say, 28% on BL) that's not very different from where Ocelot and Jill have resided in the past.

Pre-God of War 2 Kratos is worth 28 on BL.
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ZFS | Posted 10/19/2008 5:12:41 PM | message detail

I feel like Bowser > Luigi is very, very possible.

I don't think we even need to talk about MGS4 with this one. Liquid getting within 7% of Luigi speaks for itself, MGS4 boost or no. Throwing Bowser into the mix isn't going to be good for Luigi. It can't hurt that Liquid's going to stand out there, too. I'd be surprised if Liquid doesn't advance in that one...then again, I would have said the same thing about Ocelot today.

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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/19/2008 5:14:59 PM | message detail

Kratos was rather close to Riku in his final match last year, not to mention being miles away from Snake/L. Putting him in the 30s definitely gives him too much credit, if you ask me.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/19/2008 5:16:24 PM | message detail

Kratos was rather close to Riku in his final match last year, not to mention being miles away from Snake/L. Putting him in the 30s definitely gives him too much credit, if you ask me.

You don't see anything wrong with judging Kratos off that match?

...

ANYTHING?
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/19/2008 5:18:33 PM | message detail

Pre-God of War 2 Kratos is worth 28 on BL.

Pre-MGS4 Ocelot was worth about 51% on Jill, too. We have lots and lots and lots of examples in which a new game doesn't do much - don't take Kratos being stronger due to GoW2 as the gospel truth.
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Japago | Posted 10/19/2008 5:19:06 PM | message detail

Now that I think about it, I might lean towards the lower end of Kratos' range. I mean, I just can't see a sequel that didn't make a major advancement from the first game and released to the same audience boosting him that much. I haven't played much of GoW2 so I may be wrong about this, but I don't remember it being a big advancement in gameplay. Also, did it sell more than GoW1?

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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/19/2008 5:20:34 PM | message detail

Pre-MGS4 Ocelot was worth about 51% on Jill, too.

Oh, I see. You're equating results in the format to 1v1 strengths.

Do I need to bring up jokefodder?
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/19/2008 5:21:30 PM | message detail

For all the problems that L caused, it doesn't seem to have changed character's relations with one another. So no, I'm not about to excuse Kratos' performance because L happened to be in the match. I mean, would you say DK looked fine in his match?
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transience | Posted 10/19/2008 5:21:41 PM | message detail

God of War 2. this isn't some small game - this is a game that got rave reviews, is better than 1 in every conceivable way, and is only the second game he's been in.

put another way - God of War 1 doubled its sales and Kratos went from 45% on Alucard to 42% on Ryu. no new game at all. what do you think a magnum opus like GOW2 would have done for him?
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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/19/2008 5:22:30 PM | message detail

28% is a high opinion of Kratos? I'd think that would be a little low.

argh, I hate working with numbers. No matter what number someone is pegged at, I'll always find ways for other characters to beat them. Looks like I'll have to go back to 2006 to see what 28% actually means...

22 Auron
28.30%

30.88%
Zebes 2 3
23 Master Chief
28.29%

30.87%
Flood 1 2
24 Donkey Kong
27.84%

30.38%
Flood 4 3
25 Ryu
27.47%

29.98%
Dream 2 3

Yeah, figured it wouldn't help.

Here's an arbitrary listing of the top 30, in my opinion (and yeah, I'll most likely forget a hell of a lot of characters)... also, not including joke characters.

1-9. NN
10. Vincent
11. Squall
12. Ganondorf
13. Tifa
14. Auron
15. Ryu
16. Bowser
17. Luigi
18. Yoshi
19. Zelda
20. Sora
21. Dante
22. Master Chief
23. Aeris
24. Kratos
25. Knuckles
26. Leon Kennedy
27. Kirby
28. Zero
29. Fox
30. Ryu Hayabusa/Sub-Zero

I didn't put MMX/Zack in there yet just because they've only been in one match. I don't think I missed anyone.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/19/2008 5:23:58 PM | message detail

Do I need to bring up jokefodder?

Bring up jokefodder if you'd like. Is it that surprising that she's in the same general area as Pac-Man, Jill, Ocelot, Kefka, Marcus, et al.?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/19/2008 5:25:32 PM | message detail

For all the problems that L caused, it doesn't seem to have changed character's relations with one another.

That's unproven - but inconsequential. I'ts not about L. It's about Snake.

We're talking about a format where every match changes the playing field, even if the two opponents are unchanged. We saw it in Hayabusa/Riku (and it's no understatement to say that Zero is probably favored over Ryu H next round despite what happened this round). It's unfair to judge the second biggest badass on the PS2 against his performance against the biggest badass on the PS2.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/19/2008 5:25:36 PM | message detail

Pac-Man, Jill, Ocelot, Kefka, Marcus, et al.?

Whoa, whoa, whoa.

Why do you think Pac-Man, Jill, Ocelot, and Marcus are all that weak? They'd all murder Kefka easily.
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ZFS | Posted 10/19/2008 5:26:28 PM | message detail

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/19/2008 5:26:38 PM | message detail

Bring up jokefodder if you'd like. Is it that surprising that she's in the same general area as Pac-Man, Jill, Ocelot, Kefka, Marcus, et al.?

1v1, that's not so bad. In the format? SHE LOST TO A TRAILER.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/19/2008 5:28:39 PM | message detail

I thought Pac-man and Marcus already Humiliated Kefka
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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/19/2008 5:30:00 PM | message detail

I thought Pac-man and Marcus already Humiliated Kefka

I wouldn't say Pac embarrassed him in their match (unless you mean by actually beating him), but he would these days. Kefka is nothing like he was a few years ago.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/19/2008 5:30:10 PM | message detail

put another way - God of War 1 doubled its sales and Kratos went from 45% on Alucard to 42% on Ryu. no new game at all. what do you think a magnum opus like GOW2 would have done for him?

Doubling sales means he is absolutely being introduced to new people. A second game (and one that apparently didn't sell as the first) has no such guarantee.

Maybe he did get a huge boost; he'll have the opportunity to show it in the next two rounds when dealing with SFF'd Tifa and probably SFF'd Auron (in a similar setup as Ryu last year, no less). But saying Kratos must have boosted thus Jill and Ocelot must have boosted thus Kratos must have boosted is a pretty flawed argument, if you ask me.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/19/2008 5:32:43 PM | message detail

We're talking about a format where every match changes the playing field, even if the two opponents are unchanged. We saw it in Hayabusa/Riku (and it's no understatement to say that Zero is probably favored over Ryu H next round despite what happened this round). It's unfair to judge the second biggest badass on the PS2 against his performance against the biggest badass on the PS2.

Fair enough, but remember Snake/Sora? If you bring up the possibility of Snake/Kratos you absolutely have to bring up the possibility of Snake/Riku.
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Japago | Posted 10/19/2008 5:34:26 PM | message detail

I've never gotten this argument that GoW2 didn't do much for Kratos. Of all the games to argue against not boosting somebody, GoW2 just isn't the one to do it against. Ignoring that it's only his second game, it made a bigger splash when it came out than the original did, and is very much a driving factor behind why the series is as big as it is today. There's a reason a 30 second CGI teaser for GoW3 was all over the place after E3. Not buyin' that GoW2 didn't do much for Kratos at all.

Yeah, it was just something I put out there. I thought that all of GoW2's hype might not be from a different audience, hence not boosting Kratos by a big amount. I think the major point I didn't consider is that it was only his second game, meaning people who wait to hear that games are good probably flocked to GoW.

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transience | Posted 10/19/2008 5:34:50 PM | message detail

Maybe he did get a huge boost; he'll have the opportunity to show it in the next two rounds when dealing with SFF'd Tifa and probably SFF'd Auron (in a similar setup as Ryu last year, no less). But saying Kratos must have boosted thus Jill and Ocelot must have boosted thus Kratos must have boosted is a pretty flawed argument, if you ask me.

didn't we have this argument last year? "he'll have a chance to show it with SFF'd Kirby and SFF'd DK". now we're doing it again with SFF'd Tifa and SFF'd Auron - and the end result will be that we have people that will doubt him because of bracket placement.

I feel that it makes logical sense for Kratos to get stronger. to argue against a new character getting a new game is foolish. now he's got a third game that sold nearly a million copies along with one of the most anticipated upcoming games in GOW3. writing Kratos off because he hasn't had a chance to shine thanks to weird bracket placement is a mistake.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/19/2008 5:34:57 PM | message detail

But saying Kratos must have boosted thus Jill and Ocelot must have boosted thus Kratos must have boosted is a pretty flawed argument, if you ask me.

The only argument you need is the one bolded there. It's not a proven argument, but the idea that Kratos boosted from GoW2 - and that thus Jill/Ocelot are stronger as well - is not a flawed. It's not unassailable, but it's far from flawed.

What's flawed is to argue that Ocelot doesn't look bad because of Jill because she probably boosted - but looks bad because of KRATOS.
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Japago | Posted 10/19/2008 5:35:53 PM | message detail

Sorry, for the double post. But I didn't know that the sales doubled. That's crazy man, considering GoW sold a lot as it is.

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transience | Posted 10/19/2008 5:36:15 PM | message detail

I'd expect Kratos to have more overlap with Snake than Riku, much like I'd expect there to be more overlap with Hayabusa than Riku. Snake/Sora is a unique situation I think, and we saw nothing out of the ordinary with Metal Gear Solid / Kingdom Hearts.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/19/2008 5:36:18 PM | message detail

Random Stats of the round. Match 32 is not included in prediction count.

Highest Vote Total: Altair/Lucario/Isaac/Guybrush - 142 546
Lowest Vote Total: Alucard/Falcon/Diddy/Kratos A. - 121 280
Matches below 130k - 11
Matches between 130k-140k - 20
Matches above 140k - 1

Highest 1st Place Percent: Link - 60.72%
Lowest 1st Place Percent: Marth - 29.49%
Highest 2nd Place Percent: Kirby - 36.78%
Lowest 2nd Place Percent: Hogger - 16.82%
Highest 3rd Place Percent: Ike - 25.94%
Lowest 3rd Place Percent: Jinjo - 9.49%
Highest 4th Place Percent: Kefka - 21.51%
Lowest 4th Place Percent: Lucas - 5.65%

Characters above 60% - 1
Characters between 50%-60% - 5
Characters between 40%-50% - 13
Characters between 30%-40% - 21
Characters between 20%-30% - 35 (includes GlaDOS)
Characters between 10%-20% - 39
Characters below 10% - 14

Most Correctly Predicted Match: Sephiroth/Tifa/Ratchet/Nana - 144.38/200
Least Correctly Predicted Match: Marth/Duke/Niko/Kefka - 40.87/200
Highest Placed (1st or 2nd) Prediction Match: Squall/Yoshi/CATS/Nathan - 165.64/200
Lowest Placed (1st or 2nd) Prediction Match: WCC/Tidus/DK/Tails - 94.37/200
Highest Correctly 1st Placed Individual: Link - 94.68%
Lowest Correctly 1st Placed Individual: WCC - 18.67%
Highest Correctly 2nd Placed Individual: Tifa - 64.15%
Lowest Correctly 2nd Placed Individual: Arthas - 19.13%
Highest 1st Placed Individual: Link - 97.82%
Lowest 1st Placed Individual: WCC - 38.04%
Highest 2nd Placed Individual: Kirby - 90.48%
Lowest 2nd Placed Individual: Sandbag - 33.03%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 95/124 Today's Match: Kratos > Ocelot

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/19/2008 5:36:53 PM | message detail

Woah, quite the argument here. Settle down, guys - you'll have plenty of time to freak out when Zidane crushes your brackets in 3.5 hours.

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Bracket:
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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/19/2008 5:37:08 PM | message detail

with one of the most anticipated upcoming games in GOW3.

Not going to lie, this is the first time I've ever heard someone anticipating GOW3. Unless you're talking about the hype involved with unannounced games, in which case I'd have to give the edge to the next Zelda game, or the next GTA game.
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ZFS | Posted 10/19/2008 5:37:18 PM | message detail

Being introduced to a wide new audience isn't exactly what you need to do with only your second game. That's something a character with multiple games needs to worry about. With someone like Kratos, that second game just solidifies that character among that person's favorites. I think it's hard to deny that Kratos became much bigger post-GoW2, speaking in general.

And GoW2 sold well enough -- more than GoW1's numbers the last I had seen, upwards of 1.7 million here in the States. Not sure what GoW1's numbers are at, though.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/19/2008 5:37:50 PM | message detail

Only 19% had Arthas being second? I'm surprised
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/19/2008 5:38:26 PM | message detail

Snake/Sora is a unique situation I think

This. I may have believed differently once upon a time, but I think we all know that the picture factor exists by this point. And aside from BB and Solid ****, that's as big of one that you're gonna get.
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transience | Posted 10/19/2008 5:39:06 PM | message detail

Lowest 1st Place Percent: Marth - 29.49%
Highest 2nd Place Percent: Kirby - 36.78%
Lowest 2nd Place Percent: Hogger - 16.82%
Highest 3rd Place Percent: Ike - 25.94%
Lowest 3rd Place Percent: Jinjo - 9.49%
Highest 4th Place Percent: Kefka - 21.51%
Lowest 4th Place Percent: Lucas - 5.65%

I like how this is essentially two matches.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/19/2008 5:43:12 PM | message detail

didn't we have this argument last year? "he'll have a chance to show it with SFF'd Kirby and SFF'd DK". now we're doing it again with SFF'd Tifa and SFF'd Auron - and the end result will be that we have people that will doubt him because of bracket placement.

And he did show it! And I'm willing to give him more credit than a non-SFF'd Kirby now, though that seems a little less meaningful now than it did a week ago. It's his third round performance that makes me think of him not as a low 30's guy.

But, even Kratos in the low 30s doesn't do wonders for Jill and Ocelot, and if you start going higher than that and taking him on the outskirts of the Noble Nine I start backing away from this argument slowly.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/19/2008 5:45:09 PM | message detail

I like how this is essentially two matches.

I count 4 though Kirby/Jinjo/Lucas are there.
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Character Battle 2008: Points 95/124 Today's Match: Kratos > Ocelot

Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/19/2008 5:45:28 PM | message detail

Lowest 4th Place Percent: Lucas - 5.65%

Never thought Id see a Nintendo character in this spot...
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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/19/2008 5:47:40 PM | message detail

didn't we have this argument last year? "he'll have a chance to show it with SFF'd Kirby and SFF'd DK". now we're doing it again with SFF'd Tifa and SFF'd Auron - and the end result will be that we have people that will doubt him because of bracket placement.

Can you blame them though? I'm not going to say that Kratos is a noble nine breaker just because of some fluke wins that really overrate his strength. I'd rather he prove himself against someone near his strength level (imo) like Knuckles or Aeris before saying that he's up there with the elite of this contest.
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transience | Posted 10/19/2008 5:50:36 PM | message detail

no one has said he's a noble nine breaker! your list looks reasonably accurate, really. most would put Kirby at 30%, I think, and you've got Kratos above him. no one's saying that Kratos would beat Vincent or Squall.

putting Kratos in the Luigi/Dante/Yoshi class is a little bit optimistic, but not unreasonable. most would put him in the class slightly below - Leon Kennedy, Kirby, maybe Zero.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/19/2008 5:51:41 PM | message detail

The bottom line is: please don't try to spin this into something positive for Ocelot, because it very clearly isn't. Forgive my offhand comment about Kratos being at 28% at BL, because even 32% or so doesn't put Jill/Ocelot much higher than they have been recently.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/19/2008 5:53:59 PM | message detail

Not sure if someone corrected, but I'm pretty sure that GoW2 was already out when Kratos went against Ryu.

As for top characters outside the Noble Nine, I think it goes something like this:

Squall
Vincent

Auron

Ganondorf
Tifa
Ryu
Sora
Bowser

Luigi
Yoshi
Dante

Master Chief
Hayabusa
Zero
Leon
Zelda
Kirby
Kratos
Vivi
Zack

Or something along those lines.

This is keeping in mind we haven't had a good read on many of these people since 2005.

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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/19/2008 5:54:27 PM | message detail

putting Kratos in the Luigi/Dante/Yoshi class is a little bit optimistic, but not unreasonable. most would put him in the class slightly below - Leon Kennedy, Kirby, maybe Zero.

Good. Then I am in agreement!

most would put Kirby at 30%, I think,

Again with numbers... I don't really know what 30% is, but I really don't consider Kirby that strong. I'm giving him a break by putting him that high, because I'd have a hard time taking him over Fox... I mean, uh Hayabusa. >_>
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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/19/2008 5:56:26 PM | message detail

Or something along those lines.

This is keeping in mind we haven't had a good read on many of these people since 2005.

Hayabusa is too high. Way too high.

Should I even mention that you really, really overrated Zero, or will that be a wasted thought?

Sora wouldn't beat Bowser/Yoshi/Luigi. Sora/Dante would be a damn great match, now that I think about it.
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