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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 603

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/18/2008 10:28:35 PM | message detail
Jill is pulling away now..
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/18/2008 10:28:45 PM | message detail
And on that note, I'm leaving Ocelot for dead.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/18/2008 10:29:28 PM | message detail
i'm not buying Zidane going anywhere special yet. he has almost no reason to.

1. Much better pic
2. Stuck with Link + devoted fanbase
3. Square boost
4. Dissidia hype?

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/18/2008 10:30:02 PM | message detail
ocelot > kratos whoops
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CB7 Score: 96/120
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/18/2008 10:32:09 PM | message detail
1. Much better pic

i dont buy pics making a difference in simply the expression of his face.

2. Stuck with Link + devoted fanbase

so do you think he'd have the same thing in the Crono/Vincent match? nah. he does have a devoted fanbase though but.. that kinda contradicts your 'Zidane boosted lots' theory.

3. Square boost

i dont buy a square boost yet.

4. Dissidia hype?

most plausible explanation imo.
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*is Dranze*
Dedede/Pit/Ryu/Zero - Bracket: Zero > RyuH - Vote: Zero (53/64)
paraboxx | Posted 10/18/2008 10:32:54 PM | message detail
Most of my favorite characters weren't on the bracket to begin with.
Oh, the joys of being a fighting game fan.

At this point, the closest I can come to caring about a result is rooting for Mario > MMX (> Zelda).
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/18/2008 10:34:39 PM | message detail
what? I gave Zidane some chance,

I said he'll probably beat Wario didnt I <_<?
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Ride Him.
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/18/2008 10:35:26 PM | message detail
I mean, let me put it his way:

Zidane got 22.5k votes against Crono in 2k5.
He got 24.2k votes against Alucard/Ness/Liquid.
Then he got 24.1k votes against Link/Shadow/Luke.

Either Zidane is making me look stupid with random coincidences or he's got quite the dedicated fanbase.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Gaddswell | Posted 10/18/2008 10:35:40 PM | message detail
For me, I guess you could say I'm looking forward to Sora / Fox / Squall / Yoshi and Dante / Hogger / Leon / Riku the most.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/18/2008 10:36:09 PM | message detail
i dont buy pics making a difference in simply the expression of his face.

Zidane's previous pics are bad. He looked like some sort of deformed bobblehead thing. Dissidia's more standard animesque look helps him with the casual voter.


so do you think he'd have the same thing in the Crono/Vincent match? nah. he does have a devoted fanbase though but.. that kinda contradicts your 'Zidane boosted lots' theory.

It's a boost + dedicated fanbase. Obviously no one has a static fanbase.


i dont buy a square boost yet.

Despite almost every match with a Square character favoring them?

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/18/2008 10:36:55 PM | message detail
I said he'll probably beat Wario didnt I <_<?

Wario is going to be lucky to get 10% in that poll. I have him pegged at 8%.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/18/2008 10:37:18 PM | message detail
Either Zidane is making me look stupid with random coincidences or he's got quite the dedicated fanbase.

heh, well it could be coincidence. dont rule it out just yet. how can we be sure that Crono, Alucard/Ness/Liquid, and Link/Shadow/Luke are all 'equal adversaries'?
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*is Dranze*
Dedede/Pit/Ryu/Zero - Bracket: Zero > RyuH - Vote: Zero (53/64)
Gaddswell | Posted 10/18/2008 10:38:40 PM | message detail
Crono and Link/Shadow/Luke are all 'equal adversaries'?

>_<
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/18/2008 10:39:15 PM | message detail
how can we be sure that Crono, Alucard/Ness/Liquid, and Link/Shadow/Luke are all 'equal adversaries'?

Um, what? They aren't. That's the point.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/18/2008 10:41:24 PM | message detail
Going to bed. Didn't realize it was getting late.

Fun fact: When making my bracket, I figured that if by some miracle Zidane beat Shadow, then R2 was going to be easy. After all, Wario was going to be SFFd into oblivion, and Zack was going to bomb.

Whoops!

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/18/2008 10:41:37 PM | message detail
Obviously no one has a static fanbase.

.. isnt this the whole foundation of your argument? that there are 17k that will vote him no matter what?

Despite almost every match with a Square character favoring them?

they mean nothing. for all we know they could simply be underestimations or overestimation of Nintendo characters.

they've done nothing out of the ordinary from what i see.
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*is Dranze*
Dedede/Pit/Ryu/Zero - Bracket: Zero > RyuH - Vote: Zero (53/64)
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/18/2008 10:44:32 PM | message detail
They aren't. That's the point.

i dont think you get what i mean by this.

he got 20k in 3 matches, but he would undoubtly get less than that if you stick Link, Seph, and Cloud with him. he'll get even less if you put the whole noble nine.

i honestly dont think 1vs1 roll the same way in fourways, and neither do i think two fourway matches with a bunch of mid-carders and then having literally your only competition being Shadow and Link mean you automatically have the hardcore of the hardcore enough to best people who break 40% in polls.
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*is Dranze*
Dedede/Pit/Ryu/Zero - Bracket: Zero > RyuH - Vote: Zero (53/64)
Keno316 | Posted 10/18/2008 10:49:41 PM | message detail
So...I take it these two are just gonna be juggling those cuts back and forth all night and day, huh?
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims Kiddy Grade's Eclair & C.C.*
The_Ocelot2 | Posted 10/18/2008 10:50:47 PM | message detail
Yea that was quite a cut there...
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Go Ducks Go!
http://img.imgcake.com/fallout_3.jpg
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/18/2008 10:51:13 PM | message detail
This is gonna be another Jill 27 vote match, isn't it?
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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 10/18/2008 10:52:46 PM | message detail
I'm sorry, but these first round match pics have been horrible this year except for a few matches.
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Tennessee Titans 5-0.
hellfire104 | Posted 10/18/2008 10:52:51 PM | message detail
Anybody want to toss up a prediction on tomorrow's match? I'm pretty curious about this whole Zach, Zidane thing.
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Point Total: 99/124, 80% correct Rank 199th
Today: Kratos > Ocelot
Gaddswell | Posted 10/18/2008 10:54:27 PM | message detail
Looks like Ocelot's finally doing something!

2nd Ocelot cut in a row!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/18/2008 10:54:55 PM | message detail
Uh, it probably goes

Link 57%
Zack 19%
Zidane 17%
Wario: 9%

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Gaddswell | Posted 10/18/2008 10:59:11 PM | message detail
Uh...

Zack Fair - 20.32%
Wario - 10.76%
Link - 51.19%
Zidane - 19.73%

I'm not sure. Link only got 51% against Vincent / Bidoof / Zelda. On the other hand, Vincent got 27.75% there, and Zelda was probably weaker than CATS there. And Zack shouldn't be anywhere close to Vincent.
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hellfire104 | Posted 10/18/2008 11:02:18 PM | message detail
I really have no clue. Without Zach's sword in the picture i think he loses a lot of strength. I have zach advancing so I'm a bit nervous.

I think wario's vote totals are very low but i have no idea what goes in the middle.
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Point Total: 99/124, 80% correct Rank 199th
Today: Kratos > Ocelot
The_Ocelot2 | Posted 10/18/2008 11:05:19 PM | message detail
These updates are whack.
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Go Ducks Go!
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 10/18/2008 11:09:50 PM | message detail
No way does Zidane break 18%. He didn't do it Round 1 and he damn sure isn't going to do it with Zack in the poll.

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[Multiple Scorgasms]
Score: 92/124 Today's Pick: Kratos (God or War) > Revolver Ocelot
Keno316 | Posted 10/18/2008 11:11:33 PM | message detail
These updates are pretty insane. Random spikes and total dropoffs by both characters.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims Kiddy Grade's Eclair & C.C.*
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/18/2008 11:13:16 PM | message detail
No one deserves this more than Jill. One of the most entertaining contest performers in history.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/18/2008 11:14:10 PM | message detail
jill to lose by 27 votes book it
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CB7 Score: 100/124
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/18/2008 11:15:25 PM | message detail
Show me your moves!
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/18/2008 11:21:18 PM | message detail
Jill is not only the master of unlocking, she is also the master of choking

So I'm not confident yet
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/18/2008 11:21:36 PM | message detail
what in the world
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CB7 Score: 100/124
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg
Master Moltar | Posted 10/18/2008 11:30:17 PM | message detail
everyone is jumping all over the damn place what the hell

(c'mon ocelot jump higher than the rest)
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Moltar Status: augh
Heavy/Jill/Kratos/Ocelot - Bracket: Kratos > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot (97/124)
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/18/2008 11:33:09 PM | message detail
What the hell? Everyone's all over the place. Show me your moves!
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2008 11:48:48 PM | message detail
I personally wonder if MGS4 has done anything day-vote-wise for its characters. Speaking about daylight-hours from memory...I don't think Liquid looked too bad against Riku/Luigi and Solid soared against his (though night-heavy) opponents. It's hard to judge Raiden's since our sole control there is MC, too.

It's hard to fairly say and is just a theory, but it feels like it may pull some weight. If MGS4 did something along those lines for MGS-characters, then Revolver's right back in the game.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/18/2008 11:50:08 PM | message detail
just grasping it sounds like to me... a new game won't change their trends
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2008 11:52:41 PM | message detail
I'm not grasping, I'm looking for answers. It feels possible, is all.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
transience | Posted 10/18/2008 11:56:10 PM | message detail
I, uh, I think I like Ocelot here.
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/18/2008 11:58:10 PM | message detail
When night vote is over, Jill should have a good 600 vote lead or so, and if any indication from last year, their day votes are nearly identical, so unless MGS4 has somehow changed the trends, Ocelot is done
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2008 12:00:53 AM | message detail
mgs4 day vote guys

just you wait
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Moltar Status: augh
Heavy/Jill/Kratos/Ocelot - Bracket: Kratos > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot (97/124)
transience | Posted 10/19/2008 12:03:15 AM | message detail
last match of round 1 is always freaking weird.
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/19/2008 12:04:12 AM | message detail

transience (#243)
last match of round 1 is always freaking weird.



Yeah this reminds me of the MC/Subby match.. nobody expected that
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ZFS | Posted 10/19/2008 12:04:52 AM | message detail
It wouldn't surprise me to see Ocelot have a good enough day vote as a result of MGS4 to beat out Jill. She's not putting anything away here, and her day vote be any better than usual. Maybe not the most likely thing -- especially coming from an Ocelot fan -- but if anything happens other than 50/50 during the day, I'd expect it to be Ocelot doing well compared to Jill.

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six bullets. more than enough to kill anything that moves.
transience | Posted 10/19/2008 12:05:20 AM | message detail
it reminds me of uhhhh OCELOT/PACMAN
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/19/2008 12:05:51 AM | message detail

ZFS (#245)
but if anything happens other than 50/50 during the day, I'd expect it to be Ocelot doing well compared to Jill.



This I agree with. Jill isn't gonna do god in the day compared to Ocelot. But Ocelot does have a chance to have better day vote, but I don't see it as a definite or anything though.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
transience | Posted 10/19/2008 12:15:06 AM | message detail
hrm..

- Liquid fell 1% from the day vote against Luigi, Sho and Roxas
- Chris Redfield fell 1% against Sora, Tim and Fox
- Ocelot fell like .1% less than Jill in that one match (whatever)
- Raiden, Big Boss and Solid Snake moved less than 1% in the day, but they're different than Ocelot in a lot of ways
- Jill always finds a way to lose

let's do this
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
Gaddswell | Posted 10/19/2008 12:18:08 AM | message detail
Well, both Liquid and Chris had Nintendo and KH. Sho > Tim in the day so....

yeah... ocelot day vote
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/19/2008 12:23:25 AM | message detail
Jill is kinda like Frog in that she makes matches entertaining and rarely burns the majority's brackets... she just does it by losing.

God bless her.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
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