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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 601

H__RR____H | Posted 10/17/2008 9:26:51 AM | message detail
And didn't people think that Sub-Zero was overperforming a little that year due to his new game?

Turtle thought Sub-Zero over-performed that year. Then again, he thinks the MK game was the SMS for Sub-Zero...neverminding that SMS was so huge everywhere, had linkage in Mario's favor, and my personal inability to remember which MK game this even was.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/17/2008 9:27:30 AM | message detail

Karma Hunter (#400)
And didn't people think that Sub-Zero was overperforming a little that year due to his new game?

If that's the case, that would Auron look only stronger that year - anyway, it's not about whether Auron would beat Sonic 1v1. I think we can all say that's not happening pretty confidently. But between the Nintendo drop and Sonic characters performing like ASS in this format, you don't need to be as strong as Vincent to beat the 'hog.



AND Sandbag sff'ing Sonic, which alot of people seem to be forgetting.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/17/2008 9:28:20 AM | message detail
my personal inability to remember which MK game this even was.

Mortal Kombat: Armageddon, which is actually the worst 3D Mortal Kombat
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H__RR____H | Posted 10/17/2008 9:29:42 AM | message detail
Mortal Kombat: Armageddon, which is actually the worst 3D Mortal Kombat

Thank you. That game is responsible for MC losing, apparently.
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Yesmar | Posted 10/17/2008 9:35:59 AM | message detail
If that's the case, that would Auron look only stronger that year

But I'm basing Auron and Sub-Zero off of known values in 2006. It wouldn't change anything for that year.


- anyway, it's not about whether Auron would beat Sonic 1v1. I think we can all say that's not happening pretty confidently. But between the Nintendo drop and Sonic characters performing like ASS in this format, you don't need to be as strong as Vincent to beat the 'hog.


We have seen little evidence that characters, other than joke ones or ones who are being leeched, over/underperform because of the format. There's little reason to think that the format would cause an Auron Vs. Sonic match to go from being an easy win for Sonic to an easy win for Auron. Personally, I think it would be a toss up in both formats.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/17/2008 9:36:50 AM | message detail
We have seen little evidence that characters, other than joke ones or ones who are being leeched, over/underperform because of the format.

You already invalidated your arguement with this message. Master Chief in 2007?
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Yesmar | Posted 10/17/2008 9:42:48 AM | message detail
You already invalidated your arguement with this message. Master Chief in 2007?

Master Chief clearly had other factors at work last year. His performance in the first round this year should prove that it wasn't entirely the format last year that led to him doing so well. Him getting less anti votes affects the characters he is beating; it doesn't do anything to change *his* popularity.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/17/2008 9:43:33 AM | message detail
2004 Ganondorf > 2005 Auron, albeit probably barely. Auron did drop that year. Tidus did as well. It makes sense.

Based on what, exactly? 2005 Ganondorf is stronger than 2004 Ganondorf by a long shot. Ganondorf actually underperformed on Alucard that year based on our standards (Insert LOL Magus 2003 reference here), and then...well, there's that Link match that basically tells us we don't know anything about Ganon 2004's strength. If you're basing 2004 Ganondorf > 2005 Auron based on the 2004 stats, then I'm going to have to LOL Magus 2003 again because that's where his stat came from.

And I'll admit Square in general may have taken a little dip (actually, I'd say Nintendo boosted rather than Square dipped). It's really impossible to tell where Auron is in just about ANY year because SFF has been involved somewhere along the line. 2006 was probably the best look we got at him.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/17/2008 9:45:04 AM | message detail

Yesmar (#407)
You already invalidated your arguement with this message. Master Chief in 2007?

Master Chief clearly had other factors at work last year. His performance in the first round this year should prove that it wasn't entirely the format last year that led to him doing so well. Him getting less anti votes affects the characters he is beating; it doesn't do anything to change *his* popularity.



Characters like Chief and Pikachu who get anti voted alot do great in this format
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/17/2008 9:46:59 AM | message detail
Besides, Auron having Sub-Zero in this fourpack here really helps us gauge that match with Sonic. He's getting basically the same percentage Sonic got last year, but Sub-Zero's getting less than he got last year. That's pretty telling, and Brawl isn't going to make up the difference. It hasn't done much of anything.

Of course, I'm almost wondering if Sub-Zero overperformed in round 1 last year. That performance was almost...too good, especially when you consider neither round 2 nor round 3 got anywhere close to the same thing for him. Yes, I know Sonic got the Brawl announcement, but if you think that made that much of a difference, then Squall would have slaughtered him if he hadn't gotten it.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/17/2008 9:47:52 AM | message detail
Characters like Chief and Pikachu who get anti voted alot do great in this format

Even someone like Crash Bandicoot looks like high fodder/low midcarder in this format, too.

Speaking of which...Crash vs. Kefka in this format: Who you got?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/17/2008 9:48:05 AM | message detail
Besides, Auron having Sub-Zero in this fourpack here really helps us gauge that match with Sonic. He's getting basically the same percentage Sonic got last year, but Sub-Zero's getting less than he got last year. That's pretty telling, and Brawl isn't going to make up the difference. It hasn't done much of anything.

Actually I'd expect Subby to do better this year cuz last year he had nothing going for him, but this year he has a new Mortal Kombat game coming out in less then a month.
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Yesmar | Posted 10/17/2008 9:49:37 AM | message detail
Based on what, exactly? 2005 Ganondorf is stronger than 2004 Ganondorf by a long shot. Ganondorf actually underperformed on Alucard that year based on our standards (Insert LOL Magus 2003 reference here), and then...well, there's that Link match that basically tells us we don't know anything about Ganon 2004's strength. If you're basing 2004 Ganondorf > 2005 Auron based on the 2004 stats, then I'm going to have to LOL Magus 2003 again because that's where his stat came from.


LOL Magus 2003 is THE REASON Ganondorf "underperformed" on Alucard. We saw it as an underperformance because we had overrated Ganondorf, but it was actually the opposite. In reality a match between the two of them should have been rather close in 2003. But it wasn't in 2004, because Ganondorf boosted that year.
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Draco1214 | Posted 10/17/2008 9:51:11 AM | message detail
I love watching one of my favorite characters rock face, but why does he always get shoved with an FF7 character?

Oh well, looking forward to seeing Ocelot rock face in his match. I still think he has a very good shot at Kratos after what Liquid did (going from 3 votes over Alucard to getting that close to Luigi).
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Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/17/2008 9:51:42 AM | message detail
Let me spell this out. In the most recent and thereby most relevant Sonic v Sub matchup Sonic directly doubled Sub-Zero. Right now Auron is getting 60% on Sub-Zero right now. 66% > 60%. It's clear cut who the obvious winner is if you're going to use Sub-Zero as a measurement. But sure, why not twist the stats using the worst Sonic and best Sub performance so that it just about looks like that Auron as a shot, whatever keeps things fresh for you.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/17/2008 9:51:55 AM | message detail
I love watching one of my favorite characters rock face, but why does he always get shoved with an FF7 character?

Who are you talking about?
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Draco1214 | Posted 10/17/2008 9:52:29 AM | message detail
Sephiroth at the end of this division.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/17/2008 9:52:34 AM | message detail
Let me spell this out. In the most recent and thereby most relevant Sonic v Sub matchup Sonic directly doubled Sub-Zero.

That was right after the Sonic brawl announcement. It has had time to sink in and nobody cares about it now.
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Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/17/2008 9:57:19 AM | message detail
No, Round 2 was right after it. That figure is taken a few weeks after the announcement
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/17/2008 9:58:12 AM | message detail
That figure is taken a few weeks after the announcement

Eh?
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Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/17/2008 9:59:19 AM | message detail
Actually not only do I think Sonic will beat Auron comfortably, I reckon Sandbag will beat him too.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/17/2008 10:00:39 AM | message detail

Smurf FAQs (#421)
Actually not only do I think Sonic will beat Auron comfortably, I reckon Sandbag will beat him too.



XD

So you're saying Auron is on Magus level. Brilliant
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/17/2008 10:08:28 AM | message detail
We have seen little evidence that characters, other than joke ones or ones who are being leeched, over/underperform because of the format. There's little reason to think that the format would cause an Auron Vs. Sonic match to go from being an easy win for Sonic to an easy win for Auron. Personally, I think it would be a toss up in both formats.

Does The Boss beat Tails without the format? Does Rikku beat Knuckles without the format? The format matters - ignoring the fact that Sandbag is also there.
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Yesmar | Posted 10/17/2008 10:08:54 AM | message detail
Even someone like Crash Bandicoot looks like high fodder/low midcarder in this format, too.

Crash's performance on Samus was on par with what he'd be expected to have gotten in 2003.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/17/2008 10:12:05 AM | message detail
So n a slightly different topic

...wheres Marcus' day vote?
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Yesmar | Posted 10/17/2008 10:12:11 AM | message detail
Does The Boss beat Tails without the format?

Possibly. Oh I forgot to mention 4th Place Factor when talking about the format, but clearly that doesn't have much to do with people winning.

Does Rikku beat Knuckles without the format?

RIkku didn't beat Knuckles with the format. And she probably would beat him without it and Vaan leeching her votes away.
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""--Banjo
ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/17/2008 10:22:04 AM | message detail
Man it's going to be awesome when Sephiroth more than doubles Sonic in the div finals.
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H__RR____H | Posted 10/17/2008 10:23:00 AM | message detail
For what it's worth, the only impressive match any Sonic Team member has had in the four-way format was Sonic's R2 match last year, immediately off his SSBB-hype. The rest have not only been unimpressive, but honestly disheartening.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/17/2008 10:27:22 AM | message detail
What tells the story to me is that Sonic went from 45.01% on Snake in 2k6 to getting 42.8% on Snake in 2k7 despite having been announced for Brawl during the 2k7 contest. Sonic, like all Nintendo, should be weaker this year. Sandbag will certainly be pulling more from Sonic than he will from Auron.

Seriously, what more could you want?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/17/2008 10:30:30 AM | message detail
Sandbag's presence alone makes Auron a significant (that's nice guy talk for "big ****ing huge") favorite. Auron > Sandbag > Sonic is probably a more likely result than Sonic getting first place.

Sorry, Smurf, but that's just the way the cookie crumbles. We had a good run!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/17/2008 10:32:14 AM | message detail
Sandbag would have had to dismantle Magus to stand a chance of it being Sonic > Sandbag, and not have any significant SFF between the two. But only beating Magus by 250 spells his end.
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voltch | Posted 10/17/2008 10:38:31 AM | message detail
So Rydia's performance and Kain's,then what the hell was up with cecile,i haven't been following much but everything looks kinda screwy.
If Cecile was LFFing Zack,then geez Zack looks even stronger than I thought.
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Osfan | Posted 10/17/2008 10:40:35 AM | message detail
So after this performance today where do we rank Rydia in the grand scheme of the Final Fantasy rankings, who do you take to get out of this Fourpack?

Yuna
Rikku
Vivi
Rydia

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/17/2008 10:48:17 AM | message detail
Yuna and Rikku take the booby vote, so Yuna > Vivi
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H__RR____H | Posted 10/17/2008 10:56:53 AM | message detail
I'll go with Vivi > Yuna.
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Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/17/2008 10:58:19 AM | message detail
So you're saying Auron is on Magus level. Brilliant

No I'm saying a joke characters vote share don't fluctuate greatly depending on the quality of opposition. Something anyone with any contest sense would have noticed a year ago.

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Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/17/2008 11:02:14 AM | message detail
Sandbag's presence alone makes Auron a significant (that's nice guy talk for "big ****ing huge") favorite. Auron > Sandbag > Sonic is probably a more likely result than Sonic getting first place.

Sorry, Smurf, but that's just the way the cookie crumbles. We had a good run!


I disagree. As a matter of fact Sonic overshot my prediction for him yesterday, a prediction which had he met I would have still favoured him over Auron. And as for Sandbag, Joke vote range theory all over again. If Sandbag has a guarenteed 25% next match, factoring in a reasonably high teens percentage for Sub-Zero and then, well if Sonic breaks 30% there's just not enough % for Auron to take to qualify. It happened last year multiple times with L-Block and was put down to L-Block "growing" in popularity as the rounds went on which for the most part just wasn't true, it was just the same people voting for him.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/17/2008 11:05:24 AM | message detail

Smurf FAQs (#437)
Sandbag's presence alone makes Auron a significant (that's nice guy talk for "big ****ing huge") favorite. Auron > Sandbag > Sonic is probably a more likely result than Sonic getting first place.

Sorry, Smurf, but that's just the way the cookie crumbles. We had a good run!


I disagree. As a matter of fact Sonic overshot my prediction for him yesterday, a prediction which had he met I would have still favoured him over Auron. And as for Sandbag, Joke vote range theory all over again. If Sandbag has a guarenteed 25% next match, factoring in a reasonably high teens percentage for Sub-Zero and then, well if Sonic breaks 30% there's just not enough % for Auron to take to qualify. It happened last year multiple times with L-Block and was put down to L-Block "growing" in popularity as the rounds went on which for the most part just wasn't true, it was just the same people voting for him.



By this logic, Sonic would be SFF'd by sandbag like first round, and it would be Auron > Sandbag

Do you really wanna go down this path because looking at it from an unbiased point of view, your favorite character is gonna be knocked out by a sandbag if you wanna go with that arguement.
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BDawg | Posted 10/17/2008 11:35:31 AM | message detail
The only doubt I've had is that Auron just hasn't ever looked THAT good. Yeah he's a top 20 character but Vincent is clearly the 10th man and he had to fight tooth and nail to edge Crono. Calling for the heads of the noble nine is a tradition as old as time itself (or at least as old as the noble nine were recognized.) I guess I just have to see it to believe.

As far as this match goes, for someone who has stalled as much as Marcus, he sure let Rydia get away from him. I guess he'll bring it down to three digits unless the after school is feeling particularly horny.
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CP724 | Posted 10/17/2008 11:53:37 AM | message detail
Squall looks like he's a step above Vincent these days.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/17/2008 1:16:14 PM | message detail
Hey look it's Fenix barely stalling an FF4 character with the day vote these trends sure haven't been diluted or anything

(exceptions like Sandbag don't make the rule, people)
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/17/2008 1:17:25 PM | message detail
maybe rydia's just really that good

maybe

spin spin spin
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/17/2008 1:18:30 PM | message detail
with the asv, fenix has cut 200 votes in an hour and a half

Rydia 3rd confirmed
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/17/2008 1:21:02 PM | message detail
Awesome.

Guess people plum forgot or dont care about Gears no more.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/17/2008 1:23:56 PM | message detail

Shoenin_Kakashi (#444)
Awesome.

Guess people plum forgot or dont care about Gears no more.



or his fans aren't very loyal and will go for boobies instead if given the choice
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/17/2008 1:24:57 PM | message detail
must you people continue to fascinate on the breasts -_-
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/17/2008 1:25:45 PM | message detail
oh god rydia is hot i would nail her without thinking twice
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/17/2008 1:26:54 PM | message detail

Shoenin_Kakashi (#446)
must you people continue to fascinate on the breasts -_-



its the only reason she's doing well. Do you think lettuce rydia would have more than 10% when Marcus beat with lettuce kefka easily, who should be alot stronger then Rydia if you take away TJF?
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Link The Hylian | Posted 10/17/2008 1:27:14 PM | message detail
What the hell? I thought fpr sure Magus came in second yesterday. Did the poll change or something? Also it looks like there was some blatant cheating going on given by how close that poll is. Guess the guys in charge don't care. : /
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/17/2008 1:28:03 PM | message detail
If anyway was cheating at the end of the poll, it was Magus.
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