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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 600

red sox 777 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:20:07 PM | message detail
Fair enough. Perhaps Frog's Theme was working against him there- fighting against Magus, Frog? Let's try Magus's Theme.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/16/2008 8:20:27 PM | message detail
Losing to Knuckles was much much worse than this- Sandbag was probably the favorite before the match here.

True. Doesn't change the fact that he disappointed yet again.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
Gaddswell | Posted 10/16/2008 8:20:57 PM | message detail
If you were to win the Guru somehow, which character would you pick to rally for next year?

Jigglypuff probably. Seifer's another great choice since we've been trying for a while with the guy and no luck. I'd hold a normal rally for Derek Stiles next year though!
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2008 8:21:11 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/16/2008 8:21:18 PM | message detail
Because if we use it on a character who is a midcarder, they have a good chance of getting in anyway (Like Altair woulda been a lock this year to get in anyway), so I'd use it on someone who'd never have a chance to get in without it.
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Albion Hero
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/16/2008 8:21:27 PM | message detail
Sandvag gained

what the hell Magus you pathetic poop
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Today's prediction: SNOIC 44.60% - Magus 24.90% - Sandbag 15.50% - Shepard 15.00%
Status: so very bad
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/16/2008 8:21:27 PM | message detail
And Magus finds himself where he was 40 minutes ago. An amazing comeback, and I can't wait to unveil my Tom Nook > Magus upset for next year. Set it up, Bacon!
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
spiegel22 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:22:00 PM | message detail

Lady Ashe (#449)
No, no, you guys are forgetting the key element behind the comeback.

*plays Magus's theme*

Now it can begin.



Will the Chrono Symphonic remix work? 'Cause that's what I have on repeat!


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http://backloggery.com/spiegel22/sig.gif
~Ç~ Sonic! ^.^ 'That wasn't your best cereal.' http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Spiegel22
red sox 777 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:22:01 PM | message detail
Why are you doing worse than you were doing last hour Magus?!?!?

Die Sandbag Die!
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2008 8:22:18 PM | message detail
I like how Magus was hyped up to all hell despite having only 1 impressive match in his contest history, yet Shadow was immediately written off as an anomaly despite only having 1 impressive match in HIS career.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
red sox 777 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:23:01 PM | message detail
2 impressive matches! Magus beat Ganon!
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/16/2008 8:23:07 PM | message detail
well, the idea of rating characters by how much they impress you at first glance is dumb as it is.
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*is Dranze*
Dedede/Pit/Ryu/Zero - Bracket: Zero > RyuH - Vote: Zero (53/64)
XxSoulxX | Posted 10/16/2008 8:23:08 PM | message detail
Magus > Ganondorf
Link > Magus

Much better then Mario > Shadow.
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Good Times,
Great Memories
red sox 777 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:25:07 PM | message detail
Magus is waiting until we give up all hope- it's what Frog would do.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
ZFS | Posted 10/16/2008 8:25:24 PM | message detail
magus denied

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kept you waiting, huh
TheRye | Posted 10/16/2008 8:25:26 PM | message detail
If you were to win the Guru somehow, which character would you pick to rally for next year?

L-Block for the lulz
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The Rye - The one and only...
http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=3
Gaddswell | Posted 10/16/2008 8:25:58 PM | message detail
So how does that Tidus / DK / Shadow / Magus fourpack go now!
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BagFries | Posted 10/16/2008 8:26:22 PM | message detail
Altair definitely wasn't a lock if this contest was the traditional 1v1 and only had 64 characters.

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eat me
whatev | Posted 10/16/2008 8:27:34 PM | message detail
My theory for the relative lack of rallying is that there was a lot more fierce rallies for Frog because most people here still had perfect brackets at that point. The psychological loss of losing a perfect is much more than whatever is lost from losing whatever in this match. Of course, there can be other explanations, such as less excitement overall towards the contest due to it being newer at the time, and the relative dominance of joke characters overall in 4-ways. People just might not care for Magus as much as Frog for whatever reason, maybe because of contest history, as stated before.

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The world is toroidal.
Exposed armpits are sexy.
WhatTheDarn | Posted 10/16/2008 8:28:00 PM | message detail
I will never have Magus win anything ever again. Ever.
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"War is no reason to end a friendship." - Solid Snake
Xuxon | Posted 10/16/2008 8:28:29 PM | message detail
Tidus > Magus in that pack
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/19, before Captain Crow
Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716
Master Moltar | Posted 10/16/2008 8:28:38 PM | message detail
Division 7: Round 1 - Match 30 – Auron vs. Marcus Fenix vs. Rydia vs. Sub-Zero

Moltar’s Analysis

Auron
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy X
2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1 vs. Shadow, Pyramid Head and Chris
1st Place in Round 2 vs. Ryu, Bowser and Shadow
3rd Place in Round 3 vs. Cloud, Ryu and Marcus Fenix

Auron was dominant last year…until he got to Cloud.

Marcus
Game/Series Known From: Gears of War
2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1 vs. Kefka, Tom Nook and Zelos
2nd Place in Round 2 vs. Cloud, Ocelot and Kefka
4th Place in Round 3 vs. Cloud, Ryu and Auron

Hey, both losers from the Cloud/Ryu match are here

Rydia
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy IV
2007 Results: N/A

hot chick = mass votes

Sub-Zero
Game/Series Known From: Mortal Kombat
2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Sonic, Prince of Persia and Viewtiful Joe
2nd Place in Round 2 vs. Sonic, Gordon Freeman and Duke Nukem
4th Place in Round 3 vs. Sonic, Squall, and Sora

Ice dude from the MK series. He’s blue

Auron eats this fourpack. Rydia won’t hold him back much and he beat fourpacks much tougher than this last year with ease (36% on Shadow/Ryu/Bowser what the hell).

Sub-Zero is most likely going to take second. He’s kind of weird, as he looked great in Round 1, bad in Round 2 and decent in Round 3. Fenix has an outside shot at 2nd, but I don’t think he’ll do. Gears 2 hype isn’t that big on the FAQs and last year he was able to barely get passed an SFF’d Ocelot and Kefka…well then.

(yeah I forgot to do this earlier and I’m kinda pressed for time)

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Auron > Sub-Zero

Moltar’s Prediction is: Auron: 40% - Sub-Zero: 26% - Marcus: 21% - Rydia: 13%



Heroic Mario’s Analysis

As of now, Magus/Sandbag is still up in the air with the Bag leading by about 400 votes. Sonic's under 37%, making his performance pretty lackluster -- barely 10% above Magus doesn't spell good things when you go up against some real strength. All Auron needs to do here is meet expectations and most will probably favor him to take next round.

As far as what should be expected of Auron, I think 40%+ is a good place to start. Sub-Zero has some legit strength -- he got close to Sonic in round 1 last year, for whatever that's worth against Sonic these days. Fenix did respectably last year, and might be better this year thanks to Gears 2 hype and GameFAQs embracing the 360. Rydia...I doubt she's worth anything. A few people in the stats topic have been up on her after Kain, but with Auron here? Not happenin'. If you think Zack hurt Cecil, Auron should be even worse for Rydia.

The big thing to keep an eye on in this match is second place -- what happens between Sub and Fenix. Sub-Zero more than likely will take second, but it wouldn't surprise me if Fenix can make a match of it. I'm not sure why -- maybe Gears 2, maybe Scorpion earlier this round -- but I've got a feeling he'll do well here.

But I'm stickin' with Auron and Sub. Auron's gonna rock this group and Sub-Zero will do what he needs to to advance. Not much of an exciting match regardless of what happens, though, because it won't matter in round 2. But hey as long as Rydia bombs we're all happy right damn you stats topic a tree isn't hot

Prediction: Auron - 44% ; Sub-Zero - 25% ; Fenix - 23% ; Rydia - 8%
Bracket: Auron > Sub-Zero
Vote: Auron
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/16/2008 8:28:47 PM | message detail

BagFries (#468)
Altair definitely wasn't a lock if this contest was the traditional 1v1 and only had 64 characters.



I'd say he was. He was a very popular character with lots of exposure, I expected him to get in when I was playing Assassins Creed last year. I remember playing it thinking "Damn, I'm sure Altair would do pretty well in next years contest"
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Albion Hero
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
Master Moltar | Posted 10/16/2008 8:28:51 PM | message detail
Yoblazer’s Analysis

I'm in a huge hurry trying to do ten things at once and follow this match, so I'll make this quick as a jiffy. Today's match features Auron (FFX, KHII), Marcus Fenix (Gears of War), Rydia (Final Fantasy IV), and Sub-Zero (Mortal Kombat). The winner is as obvious as a pimple on your bunghole (in terms of PAIN). The second place winner is a bit tougher to crack, but we have a very heavy favorite there, too.

Auron is going to massacre this poll. The FFX badass is miles ahead of everyone in this poll in terms of intrinsic power, and he proved last year that he's beastly in this format, to boot. If he can put up 35% in a poll with Ryu, Bowser, and Shadow, he should have no trouble at all disposing these clowns. Easy win.

Second place, like I said, is a bit tougher, but Sub-Zero is the big odds-on favorite. Subby didn't find his way into a contest until 2006, but he has been great since then. He upset Master Chief mano-a-mano and did very well in this format against Sonic last year. However, I think he met his match in Auron. Subby nearly put up 40% on Auron in 2006, but I think that was an ice-cold overperformance. He had the picture advantage and a brand new game (not to mention a huge upset that brought everyone on his side) to help him. Not so this time around, and after watching Scorpion do poorly, I don't think Sub-Zero will hold up as well this time as he did two years ago.

However, he should still win. His main competition, Marcus Fenix, may have the Xbox fanbase on his side, but he's still far behind in terms of pure strength. Gears of War is also a year older, and I haven't heard or seen any hype for GoW2, so I expect Marcus to be weaker this year. Really, our biggest question mark is our only new entrant of the match, Rydia. Up until a few days ago, I would have said she was destined to bomb. After Kain Highwind did well and she landed a great picture, though, I ain't so sure. Her beauty really does stand out in the presence of three macho men, so that might help her out. She might do well, but I doubt she'll be a threat to Sub-Zero.

Auron - 41%
Marcus Fenix - 19%
Rydia - 17%
Sub-Zero - 23%



Lopen’s Analysis

You'd better win you bastard Magus. 2100 votes lost during the ASV what the hell.

This match should be pretty straightforward. Auron is a bad man, big bad man, and he's probably got first in a big way. Sub-Zero is looking like the clear second. Rydia meanwhile... is looking... absolutely gorgeous. Her beauty... unrivaled. KOS-MOS? Tifa? None can compare~ Take me away from this crew, Rydia... let's go, let's go and start a family... I... I mean... I know there are some difficulties... you being... you know... a video game character... but we'll figur--

*Ahem* Um, yeah, I really don't know what to say about this match. Rydia has the hottest picture ever and should win. Vote Rydia. And if you need more, she's a good character, too. And in all seriousness, even beyond the pic, after seeing Kain, I think she'll surprise quite a bit. Marcus probably loses to her, with Subz and Auron taking the casual vote. Though I suppose Auron SFFing her isn't out of the question, considering that's probably what Zack did to Cecil. Hmmm.

Lopen's Prediction:
Auron – 33.21%
Sub-Zero – 27.78%
Your goddess, Rydia – 23.13%
Marcus Fenix – 15.88%



Transience’s Analysis

Sandbag! what a comeback. this definitely isn't over, though. I'd definitely rather have the bag than the vampire, but the sun is going down.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/16/2008 8:28:52 PM | message detail
Another reason might be that people weren't able to organize anything for the guy because of this crash. >_>
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:29:18 PM | message detail
Crono, you have to eliminate L-Block to avenge this!
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
Master Moltar | Posted 10/16/2008 8:29:46 PM | message detail
tomorrow's match *should* be a dud. Auron's not competing with this pack, but with Sonic - he wants to show that he can outdo Sonic's percentage against Magus and the Bag, and while it's not a fair comparison, if he does I'd say he's reachieved favourite status. the only thing holding him back is Rydia, who I think isn't going to do all that well, but given how Kain performed I'd say that it's possible Cecil held Zack back a bit. so if Auron gets 40% here I'd say he's in great shape.

second place should be Sub-Zero. my concern here is twofold - Scorpion didn't look very good, and Fenix could be stronger on the basis of the Xbox characters doing pretty well this year. that said, I always saw Fenix voters as people who just didn't care about the others too much - he'll get his 15% or whatever, but with a casual draw like Sub-Zero I don't think he'll be much of a threat. he's weaker than Freeman, who Sub beat last year in this format. gotta go with Sub-Zero.

as for Rydia, people keep talking about her picture, but I don't think it even matters. I thought we got over this TJF thing in 2004.

Sandobaggu-kun~
better than lame one-liners
the black wind got owned

transience's prediction:

Auron - 39.78%
Sub-Zero - 26.67%
Marcus Fenix - 18.55%
Rydia - 15%



Ngamer’s Analysis

Oh man, this is one of the most intense nights in Contest history. Magus has blown a 2100 vote lead on Sandy and allowed the Bag to climb out to a 400 vote lead of his own, but now we're into the final two hours and he's attempting an epic Frogish comeback to save everyone's brackets (well not mine, but everyone else's). There was talk of trying to get a Magus rally going, but the trouble is- the boards have died! Only moments before Sandman surged into the lead the boards went down, and no one could post their disgust for about 85 minutes. Then they were back up for like an hour, but 45 minutes ago they passed away again and still haven't returned to life. If they don't come back up soon, and STAY up, this is going to be devastating for the Oracle. Not to mention Crew fans, who obviously will be pulling out their hair because they can't read my writeup before the match starts!

This is so wild that I have to get back to refreshing the boards and poll to see how this plays out, so let's keep this outlook on tomorrow a little bit shorter.

Last Known Values:
Auron - 34.73% (2007)
Sub-Zero - 23.80% (2007)
Marcus - 20.84% (2007)
Rydia - new

Actually a pretty cool match here... or at least potentially it could be. Auron will roll out to an easy win of course, but I don't think he fully cements himself as the winner over Sonic/Sandbag/Magus(?) next round, just based on the percentage he'll pull down. BUT, he's only going to appear to have had a bad showing, when in reality it will just be a matter of having to split some of his votes with Rydia, and actually he'll be in the clear once she's out of the way next round. Speaking of Rydia, I expect a pretty good result from her. Kain impressed us the other day, and I hear that Ry is decently well-liked by FF4 fans as well, which when added to her getting without a doubt the biggest pic advantage of the entire round (seriously, just wow) should spell good things for Miss Mist.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/16/2008 8:30:24 PM | message detail
Unfortunately she was placed in such an unwinnable position. Not only is Sub-Zero a proven upper midcarder, but fighting games have always done well in this format, plus he's the face of the upcoming DC vs MK fighter. Which... might help him a little. Then there's Marcus, another guy who proved himself as legit last year, and this time around the 360 vote has only gotten stronger, plus he's also got an even more hyped release coming right up in Gears 2. When you add the fact that all 4 of these options got awesome pics and that AURON is sharing the poll, I'm afraid I don't see any way for Rydia to stay out of the basement here no matter how much she impresses.

So an Auron win but not really a blowout, with everyone else looking pretty decent as well ought to result in something like...

Auron - 37.09%
Sub-Zero - 24.09%
Marcus Fenix - 21.25%
Rydia Mist - 17.56%

Uhh... sure! *back to mashing F5*

Ngamer Says: Auron > Subby



Guest’s Analysis - BDawg

Well, Round 1 is winding down so it's time for nobodies to step up and help the crew out. Now this match seems pretty straightforward and it probably is, but it's about those darn percentages. With Sonic laying a meh (although really that's nothing new these days SNOIC TEAM) people will be trying to hype Auron. Personally I doubt it can happen but let's get down to THIS match.

Auron: a proven veteran and elite from FFX. Auron has been around the block a few times and has the unfortunate habit of running into FF7 and getting humiliated. And...whoops there's Sephiroth down the road. But anyway, in his proven matches he's looked good, and he's managed to go from nearly 46% on Ganon to 45.5% on Crono. He also looked fine last year in this format, cruising past Ryu and Bowser until Cloud cheap-shotted him and let Ryu sneak past.

Sub-zero: proven midcarder from Mortal Kombat fighters. Subby made his debut in '06 by joining the "I embarrassed Master Chief" club (looking for new members this year.) Last year he looked good hanging with Sonic in round 1, but after the Smash-roids he looked pretty average beating Gordon and losing to SFFed Sora.

Marcus Fenix: low-midcarder from Gears of War. Fenix made his debut last year and managed to get to the 3rd round with a mixture of surprise strength and lucky placement. Hanging around Kefka and pre-MGS4 Ocelet is all well and good, but even a SFFed Auron handled him easily in round 3.

Rydia: newbie alert! The summoner from FF4 makes her debut thanks to the recent remake on the DS. Kain looked pretty decent a few days ago, while Cecil kind of stunk it up in the opening match (but not Jade stench at least). Rydia is probably closer to Cecil if even that (maybe people don't like the paladin pics?) and much like Cecil a more mainstream FF (Zack FEAR) is sitting in the poll with her.

Auron has beaten both Subby and Fenix so there's really no danger for him. Rydia is probably no Kain and Auron might not help her but I think the difference between old/new school Square will be enough to save her from single digits. The only upset potential lies with Sub-zero/Fenix and really it's not too likely. I don't know of much Gears2 hype (whee chainsaw guns?) and Subby just has the better career and no real reason to drop.

Whoops this ran kind of long so after consulting the calculator app I get...
Auron: 38.8%
Sub-zero: 27.4%
Marcus: 22.1%
Rydia: 11.7%



Crew Consensus: Auron > Subby no sweat
red sox 777 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:31:06 PM | message detail
Aw yeah 35 vote cut let's do this!
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
Gaddswell | Posted 10/16/2008 8:31:17 PM | message detail
Magus stalled Sonic there.

now why couldn't he have been doing this earlier
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:31:20 PM | message detail
hey there magus welcome to the party
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CB7 Score: 88/112
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/16/2008 8:31:38 PM | message detail
I'm kinda disappointed that Marcus got such a bad draw. He could have definently advanced in a better 4pack.
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Albion Hero
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/16/2008 8:32:00 PM | message detail
-_-
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caps
red sox 777 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:32:03 PM | message detail
Votes per update needed: 54
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/16/2008 8:32:25 PM | message detail
Magus: Sorry, I got held up in traffic. What did I miss?

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
ZFS | Posted 10/16/2008 8:32:52 PM | message detail
come on sandbag

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kept you waiting, huh
Lopen | Posted 10/16/2008 8:33:18 PM | message detail
Dammit, Magus, don't let that damn Frog outdo you. CHEAT, CHEAT, CHEAT!
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Gaddswell | Posted 10/16/2008 8:33:32 PM | message detail
Wasn't Ramza behind by ~350 at this time yesterday too?
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:33:54 PM | message detail
Frog gained 238 votes in the last 28 minutes. Come on Magus (and come on Red Sox!)
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:35:06 PM | message detail
What the ****? I missed that last update.
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Next is ...
H__RR____H | Posted 10/16/2008 8:35:29 PM | message detail
I just got in from a wild fun day...

...what have I missed?! Holy ****, Sandbag really came back? Wow.
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Lobby Hero
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg
XxSoulxX | Posted 10/16/2008 8:35:45 PM | message detail
22 vote cut?
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Good Times,
Great Memories
RockMFR 5 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:35:50 PM | message detail
No Magus, just give up.
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n.
nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:35:52 PM | message detail
Not enough Magus. You need MORE!
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Dammit.
ZFS | Posted 10/16/2008 8:35:55 PM | message detail
denied

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kept you waiting, huh
Lopen | Posted 10/16/2008 8:36:08 PM | message detail
More power

Call the Frog fanclub someone

We've got a bag to vanquish
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/16/2008 8:36:10 PM | message detail
It doesn't matter how much magus cuts now, its over sadly. 22 vote cuts won't do crap
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Albion Hero
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
Xcarvenger | Posted 10/16/2008 8:36:33 PM | message detail
late comeback is late
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For all your board 8 needs: www.board8.wikia.com
red sox 777 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:36:37 PM | message detail
Votes per update needed: 60.4
Updates remaining: 5

BELIEVE!
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
The_Ocelot2 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:36:40 PM | message detail
If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.
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Go Ducks Go!
http://img.imgcake.com/fallout_3.jpg
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