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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 599

smitelf | Posted 10/16/2008 5:29:55 AM | message detail
Doesn't seem like a lot has changed since last night. Shepard is still doing too well even though he's in dead last, Magus and Sandbag are still fighting for 2nd, and Sonic still looks like crap.
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MasaHikoTron | Posted 10/16/2008 5:31:39 AM | message detail
Nice to see Magus looking decent for a change. It's about damn time.
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
__hiei__ | Posted 10/16/2008 5:32:49 AM | message detail
I'd say this match is over

europe hours vote is the very worst time for CT characters,which means magus won't do any worse than that througout the day.
MasaHikoTron | Posted 10/16/2008 5:41:32 AM | message detail
I'd say this is payback for 2005. ****ing Knuckles.
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
charmander6000 | Posted 10/16/2008 5:41:57 AM | message detail
Magus isn't doing so well right now, but neither is Sandbag.

Let's go Sonic.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 85/112 Today's Match: Sonic > Magus
Gaddswell | Posted 10/16/2008 5:43:42 AM | message detail
I wouldn't call this over yet personally. Sandbag still has what could be his best time coming up.
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MasaHikoTron | Posted 10/16/2008 5:50:24 AM | message detail
If Sonic doesn't at least get 40%, he'll be looking like **** here. He's pretty popular in Brawl, so that shoulda boosted him some. Of course it's not like Brawl has really helped anybody this contest for whatever reason.
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Guess how many teens | Posted 10/16/2008 5:55:16 AM | message detail
Well even if Sandbag wins this round no way he'll make it out of R2.
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[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[ -Red |||||||||||||| -Green ]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]] -Blue
red sox 777 | Posted 10/16/2008 5:59:30 AM | message detail
And Magus goes back over 1000.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
red sox 777 | Posted 10/16/2008 6:04:54 AM | message detail
Magus by the Hour Vs. Sandbag:

1:00 | 50.80%
2:00 | 53.09%
3:00 | 54.51%
4:00 | 56.38%
5:00 | 54.32%
6:00 | 52.35%
7:00 | 46.43%
8:00 | 49.37%
9:00 | 53.28%

Very good hour for Magus.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
charmander6000 | Posted 10/16/2008 6:04:55 AM | message detail
If Sonic doesn't at least get 40%, he'll be looking like **** here. He's pretty popular in Brawl, so that shoulda boosted him some. Of course it's not like Brawl has really helped anybody this contest for whatever reason.

Sonic got 39% on SZ/PoP/VJ and like you've said Brawl hasn't done anything.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 85/112 Today's Match: Sonic > Magus
MasaHikoTron | Posted 10/16/2008 6:06:26 AM | message detail
Fair enough then. Still, even if Magus and I GUESS Sandbag are slightly tougher competition, he's still not looking good >_>
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/16/2008 6:09:58 AM | message detail
If Sonic doesn't at least get 40%, he'll be looking like **** here. He's pretty popular in Brawl, so that shoulda boosted him some. Of course it's not like Brawl has really helped anybody this contest for whatever reason.

Knux = Magus, and the Sandbag was a potential to be in the final. 40% for the Hedgehog wouldn't make him far from Mario, personally I think Sonic is doing good right now and he seems like he can still go up a few %. Of course Auron could still be a beast in this format and beat him, but thanks to this bracket I can't see Sonic lossing to anyone before the semifinals.

What's really nice is to see Magus will be able to take down the only stupid joke character in this contest that could do some damage.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
TestIcicles | Posted 10/16/2008 6:42:29 AM | message detail
I can't see a character feared for being a joke being able to compete with the day votes of a 360 character and Sonic. Especially when the ASV and Morning vote have been proven to be severely diluted this year.

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http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2004&num=2

What kind of a post was that? That's a Nintendo character vs. a FF9 character. Of course the Nintendo character was going to have a better day vote. It's why I specifically said competing with a 360 character and Sonic for the day vote, especially that her in 2008 the shifts aren't so pronounced as they used to be. I swear to god no one reads posts in these topics anymore... or at least doesn't care enough to actually understand what they say.

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mmm test icicles
nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/16/2008 6:59:56 AM | message detail
48% update for Sonic.
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We have arrived.
vcharon | Posted 10/16/2008 7:06:31 AM | message detail
I don't think this is a tougher group for Sonic; an untested joke and Magus, a perennial disappointment. Sub-Zero alone made that match more difficult, and I think he proved that by getting as close to Sonic as he did. I don't think Sonic's strength has changed much, for better or worse.


What's really nice is to see Magus will be able to take down the only stupid joke character in this contest that could do some damage.


No =/
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:>
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/16/2008 7:17:46 AM | message detail
YES I'm so glad to wake up and see Magus with a relatively comfortable lead. I was hoping Sandbag would only have joke character trends and not gain much during the day
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Today's prediction: SNOIC 44.60% - Magus 24.90% - Sandbag 15.50% - Shepard 15.00%
Status: so very bad
Xuxon | Posted 10/16/2008 7:28:20 AM | message detail
Sandbag's bound to win the day vote, but it seems it will be too far behind to catch up. At the rate Magus is going, he'll be up like 1800 votes at 3pm. Crono and Frog have been too, well, not complete **** in the ASV this year compared to 2006/2007 for Magus to be losing that much ground with the day vote.
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Tales | Posted 10/16/2008 7:28:32 AM | message detail
This doesn't look good. I got Sandbag winning the tournament >_>
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/16/2008 7:51:43 AM | message detail
I'm almost ready to give this one to Magus. His lead might be a bit too much for Sandbag to overcome by the time the ASV rolls around. Magus isn't as bad as Frog with the ASV (from what I recall), and Sandbag ain't gonna be a Master Chief or Axel.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
__hiei__ | Posted 10/16/2008 7:53:03 AM | message detail
i don't even think sandbag will start coming back again. the lead will just increase from here
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/16/2008 7:54:39 AM | message detail
Well, if the morning vote is any indication of how the ASV will go (which it usually is), Sandbag will make cuts, but probably not significant ones. Sonic got bombarded so badly by the Power Hour that he's probably just going to increase for most of the match (a la Dante yesterday).
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
MnMZero | Posted 10/16/2008 7:57:01 AM | message detail
I'm looking at past arguments in this topic. Why do people still act like the only way for a character to boost due to a new game is if said game that makes you like that character more, or stuff to that effect? I glimpsed at an argument from someone saying all Melee fans aren't Brawl fans, but Brawl fans are Melee fans, so since they were already Melee fans, there shouldn't be a boost. Uh, what about bringing those Melee fans back to the site?

Anyways, I might have just glimpsed at one part of the argument. I've just noticed arguments like that recently. It seems that not a lot of people account for site traffic causing boosts as well.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/16/2008 7:59:17 AM | message detail
MC might be a good argument for site traffic helping your strength. Just look at the apparent difference from last year to this year.

Question: What does Auron need to get tomorrow to make him the favorite over Sonic?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
red sox 777 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:02:22 AM | message detail
Well, the thing is, that would actually support the idea of the Brawl De-Boost. Brawl brought Melee fans to the site in droves in 2006/7 when it was the most hyped game ever, and now that its come out and disappointed some, they are no longer coming here.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
CP724 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:03:14 AM | message detail
like 38+
Janus5000 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:04:33 AM | message detail
*oversleeps*
*wakes up with even less hope for a CT character than usual*

...Yessssssssss best contest ever
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Stay a while and breathe me in.
hellfire104 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:05:36 AM | message detail
Basd on the fact that Sonic is being SFFed by Sandbag, I'd say Auron needs about 43% of the vote.
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Contest Point Total: 89 Goal: 101 Tied for 192
This Pick: Sonic > Magus
Janus5000 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:06:37 AM | message detail
...Don't start stalling now that I'm awake, Magus baby. =/
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Stay a while and breathe me in.
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/16/2008 8:07:01 AM | message detail
Sandbag is trying to stall!

And while Brawl probably isn't drawing as much site traffic these days, it's still getting a lot of hits, I'd imagine. It's hard to explain what the problem with Brawl is, honestly. I want to see how it does in the Games Contest.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/16/2008 8:08:30 AM | message detail
If Sandbag and Sonic are LFFing one another, Magus got a lucky break. You know, despite Sonic being in Brawl, I don't see it being the case. Never know though. Either way, it doesn't look like it'd be TOO much LFF either way. I couldn't see Sonic or Sandbag being TOO much higher than this.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
red sox 777 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:08:38 AM | message detail
Magus by the Hour Vs. Sandbag:

1:00 | 50.80%
2:00 | 53.09%
3:00 | 54.51%
4:00 | 56.38%
5:00 | 54.32%
6:00 | 52.35%
7:00 | 46.43%
8:00 | 49.37%
9:00 | 53.28%
10:00 | 53.63%
11:00 | 53.75%

Magus is looking very good right now: he's on pace to get to a lead of around 2200 by 3 PM. Moreover, Sandbag has shown few signs of life and has only won 2 hours so far. Magus, at least relative to Sandbag, is not exhibiting the classic CT 4 hours and die pattern today.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
Janus5000 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:11:12 AM | message detail
Magus has still been going down since the dead zone. He's just been fortunate enough to have an opponent who's been choking about as much. Sonic and Shepard are the ones benefiting.
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Stay a while and breathe me in.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/16/2008 8:12:05 AM | message detail
Yeah 43% sounds good. I was going to say above 50%. Sonic doing better than his first round performance last year (And I think it's pretty fair to compare Rydia + Marcus Fenix to PoP and VJ), so a little above 40% would put Auron as the favourite.

Then again the Bag might be hold Sonic back a little in this round, while Magus might hold Auron back a little more next round than what Rydia will in this round.

So yeah something above 40.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
hellfire104 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:12:48 AM | message detail
I'm just glad Sandbag is dead. 1 down, 1 to go.
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Point Total: 89 Round 1 Goal: 101 Rank 192
Today: Sonic > Magus
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/16/2008 8:12:55 AM | message detail
Yeah, Shepard is actually doing (relatively) well right now. Sonic should be going up for a while after that horrible first hour. He's pulling a FFVII here. He's pulling in around 38-40% fairly regularly here.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/16/2008 8:14:13 AM | message detail
I don't think Auron and Magus are going to hinder each other very much. If they do, then Rydia will hamper him somewhat tomorrow. Just remember that Auron went one-on-one with Crono just two years ago and got nearly 46% on him. No sign of SFF there.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
Master Moltar | Posted 10/16/2008 8:17:44 AM | message detail
Magus holding up for now, but Sandbag is falling too far behind to pull off the comeback. Sonic should also end up looking "okay" (as opposed to "what the hell sonic")

one joke almost down just gotta survive the ASV c'mon magus
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Moltar Status: augh
Shepard/Magus/Sandbag/Sonic - Bracket: Sonic > Magus - Vote: Shepard (87/112)
dlcb1 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:18:25 AM | message detail
Well, the thing is, that would actually support the idea of the Brawl De-Boost. Brawl brought Melee fans to the site in droves in 2006/7 when it was the most hyped game ever, and now that its come out and disappointed some, they are no longer coming here.

I would think more fans would regularly come to the site after a game is released than before. If you want information on a game, you can find that plenty of places. But you come to Gamefaqs for the guides and the community. Boards always explode after a game is released. All these factors would seem to favor more traffic now.

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HMMMmmmMMMMMmmmmm...............
red sox 777 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:20:19 AM | message detail
Yeah, Sonic really isn't doing too badly here: Sandbag is a joke character who's possibly LFFing him and Magus has been badly underrated for a while now- he's always been a good deal stronger than Frog. I don't think Auron/Magus LFF will be very significant next round, but any little bit will help Sonic. As for Auron tomorrow, I think I'd call him the favorite over Sonic if he puts up....42%.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/16/2008 8:21:01 AM | message detail
Come on, Magus! GO! FIGHT! WIN! Destroy Sandbag!
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/16/2008 8:24:03 AM | message detail
just woke up... whos looking like they're gonna be 2nd atm due to trends?
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TRE Public Account | Posted 10/16/2008 8:24:21 AM | message detail
What kind of a post was that? That's a Nintendo character vs. a FF9 character. Of course the Nintendo character was going to have a better day vote. It's why I specifically said competing with a 360 character and Sonic for the day vote, especially that her in 2008 the shifts aren't so pronounced as they used to be. I swear to god no one reads posts in these topics anymore... or at least doesn't care enough to actually understand what they say.

Better day vote is one thing, swinging the match by almost 6000 votes is another. A 360 character and Sonic are certainly a high mark to reach, but Master Hand was no slouch with the day vote despite being a joke character. My post was made when Sandbag and Magus were closer together so even a diluted day vote might have been enough for Sandbag to win. However, at this point it looks like Magus had 2nd place locked up.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/16/2008 8:28:28 AM | message detail
The match is Magus's to lose, and there's a 90% chance he won't lose it at this point.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
TestIcicles | Posted 10/16/2008 8:32:21 AM | message detail
Swinging 6,000 votes is a bit of being intentionally dubious. The highest lead Kuja had over Hand was 400 and it took him 3 hours into the match to achieve it. Making a comparison between the two is pretty worthless.

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mmm test icicles
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/16/2008 8:33:31 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/16/2008 8:34:44 AM | message detail
Yeah, I hate it when people call Kuja/MH a massive vote swing. It's so misleading. We might as well call Squall/Luigi a 23,000 vote swing because Luigi led at the freeze.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
Smurf FAQs | Posted 10/16/2008 8:37:02 AM | message detail
It seems like a given Sandbag's taking the day vote here but I'm really surprised at how well Magus has done up to now, maybe he'll actually pull it off.
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Smurf , The cream of Knuckles Fanboyism.
nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/16/2008 8:38:56 AM | message detail
Magus is leading now by 3-5% per update.

I think with Sonic there, the best the bag will manage will be to stall Magus at the absolute best.
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It's over.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/16/2008 8:39:01 AM | message detail
Looking at the updates, I think that Magus has this. He'll have a 2000 lead at least by ASV, and in this format and Sonic here, Sandbag just can't get that many votes. Yay one less joke character
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Albion Hero
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