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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 599

ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/15/2008 10:46:05 PM | message detail
Crono is going to be a BEAST around and after CTDS comes out, just watch.
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ExThaNemesis is the man.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/15/2008 10:47:11 PM | message detail
Man, Magus slowing down already. Ouch.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/15/2008 10:50:04 PM | message detail
Too bad CT DS doesn't come out like mid contest to give Crono a boost against Vincent.
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Albion Hero
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/15/2008 10:51:07 PM | message detail
I don't think many people will care about a battle for distant third.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/15/2008 10:51:11 PM | message detail
And it doesn't help that Crono/Vincent is a pointless fight for third this time around, meaning whoever wins, they both lose.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
red sox 777 | Posted 10/15/2008 10:51:32 PM | message detail
Ah, that's much better, Magus. Hopefully he'll be 1000+ votes ahead when I wake up.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
HaRRicH | Posted 10/15/2008 10:51:32 PM | message detail
And why are people so defensive about my Mega Man > Snake upset? It's no more outlandish than Master Chief beating Cloud.

I'm not being defensive against it, I'm going on the offensive against it. You turned down account bets from HM and Soul because of a month and misunderstood rumors. You should accept my challenge because you seemed willing to bet with somebody worthy and -- though HM and Soul certainly are, no matter what you say -- there's not a reason not to bet me.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
Gaddswell | Posted 10/15/2008 10:51:32 PM | message detail
I wonder if Master Hand would get a small boost from this format due to him being a hand.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/15/2008 10:51:53 PM | message detail
L Block isn't there YET <_<
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Albion Hero
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
Ngamer64 | Posted 10/15/2008 10:53:59 PM | message detail
So anyways, anyone with confidence in a Magus victory right now is a little bit cuckoo-nuts IMO. Not to say he can't win or is doomed or anything, but two points to keep in mind:

1. Kuja built a 440 vote lead against Master Hand (4 hours in)

2. Kuja lost to Master Hand by 5,500 votes

I'm not saying Magus needs a 5,900 vote lead here to be safe; between Sonic still being great in the Day (hopefully?), the 360 character eating some ASV, CT characters not being QUITE the Day Vote choke artists that Kuja is, and the nature of the format, he shouldn't need a cushion THAT gigantic. I am, however, saying he needs a lead of 2,000 before I'd start feeling any kind of confident in him.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/15/2008 10:54:44 PM | message detail
Ouch, Sandbag is done. This is lamentably over. Looks like #2 on the leaderboard is my ceiling!
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/15/2008 10:55:04 PM | message detail
I don't think we can compare Kuja and Magus, and thats 1v1 vs. 4way. Its a different beast.
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Albion Hero
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/15/2008 10:55:22 PM | message detail
CTDS may have an effect before it actually comes out. We've seen this with TP and SSBB. Also, L-Block's chances of losing in round 4 are not zero- slim, but not zero- the block never fails to surprise us, and its voting trends this year were completely different from what we saw last year. It just might not be so static anymore.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/15/2008 10:56:49 PM | message detail
C'mon magus, get a big update so I can go to bed
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Albion Hero
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/15/2008 10:56:50 PM | message detail
NO! Sandbag cut.....Magus, you're not supposed to collapse until past 4!
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
Ngamer64 | Posted 10/15/2008 10:58:16 PM | message detail
Haha, the very minute yo throws in the towel on Sandy he makes a 15 vote cut. I don't think there's any question that he's the topic's new Slowflake.

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/15/2008 11:00:50 PM | message detail
Nice 30% update
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MasaHikoTron | Posted 10/15/2008 11:05:47 PM | message detail
Wow I pick the worst upsets >_> good job Shepard
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
transience | Posted 10/15/2008 11:30:56 PM | message detail
Sonic going up overnight? that's what happens when you've got two killer early votes.

hail the bag
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
ffmasterjose | Posted 10/15/2008 11:48:05 PM | message detail
Eh, Kuja and Magus are also two different competitors. I'd take Magus > Kuja in any year. Though I know his match with Master Hand is the best we can go off of right now.
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87/112 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Sonic the Hedgehog > Magus | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0
__hiei__ | Posted 10/15/2008 11:50:08 PM | message detail
Magus would triple Kuja at worst
Master Moltar | Posted 10/15/2008 11:55:12 PM | message detail
sonic night vote

well then

maybe i should go to sleep
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Moltar Status: augh
Shepard/Magus/Sandbag/Sonic - Bracket: Sonic > Magus - Vote: Shepard (87/112)
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/16/2008 12:22:17 AM | message detail
I don't know what to think about this match.

Is it good that Magus seems to not be the weakling everyone thought, or that Sonic is doing this.

OH well I think Sonic will do it respectable, I say that he would do good if he gets above 38%.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2008 12:52:53 AM | message detail
OH well I think Sonic will do it respectable, I say that he would do good if he gets above 38%.

what's up revised expectations

remember this is the guy that PW was leading for an hour
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
ffmasterjose | Posted 10/16/2008 1:03:33 AM | message detail
Keep the cushion going Magus.
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87/112 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Sonic the Hedgehog > Magus | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0
transience | Posted 10/16/2008 2:02:51 AM | message detail
Magus slowing down... sorta. maybe the votes are just drying up.

Sonic with the epic night vote this match is just stupid
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
CP724 | Posted 10/16/2008 2:09:57 AM | message detail
Hm, sonic looks like he'l still get at least high 30's. Which isn't too bad
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/16/2008 2:11:12 AM | message detail
Sonic is getting a night vote?
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/16/2008 2:12:21 AM | message detail
Sonic getting a night vote over Magus is funny.
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/16/2008 2:53:19 AM | message detail
Magus up by 1010 votes now. Probably not safe yet though!
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The Real Truth | Posted 10/16/2008 3:18:48 AM | message detail
Looks like Sandbag is already cutting.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/16/2008 3:22:36 AM | message detail
Ouch. The sun it burns
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
transience | Posted 10/16/2008 3:24:46 AM | message detail
hrm. I expected more from Sandbag.

stalls won't do!
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
transience | Posted 10/16/2008 3:38:18 AM | message detail
kay, that's more like it.

this looks like a really good match. it all depends on if Magus dies after the morning vote is over or if he can pad this lead out to 1500 or so. if he can, I think he'll be safe.
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xyzzy
la la la you're dead la la la la we killed you la la la
Gaddswell | Posted 10/16/2008 3:38:18 AM | message detail
Sandbag's already doing something.

This probably won't end well for Magus.
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The Real Truth | Posted 10/16/2008 3:39:11 AM | message detail
Wow massive cut
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GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC
Biolizard28 | Posted 10/16/2008 3:46:34 AM | message detail
If Sandbag gets second, I've given up on this joke of a contest. We've had potentially interesting matches ruined by joke characters, rallies, and (last year) blatant cheating. But it's not like Sandbag LOSING is going to change anything.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
Meg and Fiona are the scum of the field.
_Harmonica_ | Posted 10/16/2008 3:49:02 AM | message detail
Sandbag is the only thing that makes this match interesting, so I don't know what you're talking about.
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ICBMs, also known as "nukes", can ruin a leader's whole day.
vcharon | Posted 10/16/2008 3:49:03 AM | message detail
I pray somehow Magus can pull this off, it's the only redemption this contest can know.
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:>
Biolizard28 | Posted 10/16/2008 3:51:32 AM | message detail
Because it's a joke with a static percentage and once we see what that percentage is, it's all over?
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
Meg and Fiona are the scum of the field.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/16/2008 3:53:44 AM | message detail
With this morning vote, Shepard's looking like a night character. Strange trend for a 360 character.
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CP724 | Posted 10/16/2008 3:56:30 AM | message detail
Magus should still win barring no stuffers. Sandbag isn't doing all that much with the morning vote. He needs to be gaining a little faster than this.
The Real Truth | Posted 10/16/2008 3:58:51 AM | message detail
Sandbag is doing great right now.

And I've already given up hope for these contests.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/16/2008 4:00:35 AM | message detail
If Magus takes an advantage back during the in-school vote he probably wins. If he continues to bleed during that period he clearly loses
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
__hiei__ | Posted 10/16/2008 4:05:54 AM | message detail
CT characters do the worst on this "european vote" period then recover.
red sox 777 | Posted 10/16/2008 4:14:57 AM | message detail
Hmm....Magus did get to a 1000 vote lead, and Sandbag has only been cutting slowly with the BSV. I'm cautiously optimistic about Magus here- he'll do better as the BSV continues and transitions into the DSV.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/16/2008 4:51:42 AM | message detail
Haha, Sonic won the night vote and a CT character didn't. That's got to be a first! Sandbag has the potential to make this interesting. He's already cut 150 votes off of Magus's lead here, and obviously, CT's day vote is notorious for sucking. It's not over yet.

And honestly, I'd say Sonic, Crono, and Mega Man are all on the same level here at this point, which basically reflects 2006 and last year. Squall nearly beat Sonic last year, and he basically matched Mega Man on Yoshi this year. Vincent beat Crono last year. They're all in the same general range, unless Sonic has dropped some more this year, in which case, Auron > Sonic looks really good right about now, especially if Sandbag moves on and somehow it's hindering the Blue Blur.

Uhhh...Sandbag/Magus/Shepard vs. Sub-Zero/PoP/Viewtiful Joe: Who you got?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/16/2008 4:56:03 AM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Dante | Hogger | Laharl | Ramza
PHV | 45.73% | 17.46% | 17.31% | 19.49% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 49.36% | 15.76% | 17.64% | 17.24% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 51.29% | 16.53% | 16.70% | 15.48% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 48.56% | 19.07% | 15.59% | 16.78% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 52.63% | 16.02% | 15.93% | 15.42% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 48.58% | 14.77% | 16.73% | 19.92% | (22:00-24:00)

Ramza does his best work in the first and last hours here. And how can someone accuse someone so noble as he of cheating?! Pish posh, I say! (Speaking of which, where was our British commentary for most of yesterday's match!). Hogger does his best work during the DSV, which is typically Blizzard time, rallying or not. Laharl is a night character through and through, but he still beat Ramza with the ASV and nearly beat Hogger, too. Dante decides to go crazy with that ASV.

Yesterday's stats:

Dante Sparda – 50.00%
Hogger – 25.14%
Ramza Beoulve – 25.01%
Laharl – 24.66%

Dante triples everyone! Success!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
red sox 777 | Posted 10/16/2008 5:02:58 AM | message detail
Magus is currently at 41.96% of Magus/Sonic votes and 51.95% of Magus/Sandbag votes. Sub-Zero ended with 45.35% in round 1 last year, and 34.59% in round 2. Sonic today is probably somewhere in between those performances, much closer to round 1 probably.

If Sandbag indeed behaves like a Smash character, I would want Magus to have at least a 2000 votes lead by 3 PM to feel safe. SSB is typically not as strong at the morning as the rest of Nintendo, but stronger in the ASV. Axel came back from 1900 down against Frog, and while KH's day vote and second night vote are better, Magus/Sandbag are also playing with more votes as they are at a higher percentage. I think Magus does have a good shot at 2000 though: he appears to have already stalled Sandbag, and we're not out of the morning vote yet.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
red sox 777 | Posted 10/16/2008 5:13:47 AM | message detail
Magus by the Hour Vs. Sandbag:

1:00 | 50.80%
2:00 | 53.09%
3:00 | 54.51%
4:00 | 56.38%
5:00 | 54.32%
6:00 | 52.35%
7:00 | 46.43%
8:00 | 49.37%

Magus survived the Europe vote much better than CT usually does, presumably because Sandbag is also horrible with that time period. And it's nice to see Magus has won 4 updates in a row: that's a trend!
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 88/112 --- T-300 (103 way)
Bracket: Sonic > Magus --- Vote: Magus
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