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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 596

LeonhartFour | Posted 10/14/2008 7:59:54 AM | message detail
Are we assuming BB gets a Naked Snake pic in every round now?

Someone submitted a MGS4 face shot for Big Boss next round. Wouldn't be surprised if it got picked, but with how popular MGS4 seems to be here, I don't know if it'd hurt him that badly.

Not to say Naked Snake isn't the best scenario for him, but still.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
MasaHikoTron | Posted 10/14/2008 8:01:06 AM | message detail
leon be dominatin
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
ffmasterjose | Posted 10/14/2008 8:41:32 AM | message detail
This sort of thing can be annoying though, I'm personally most baffled at the Tifa placement. Seriously, what was he thinking there.

He wanted to give about 4 people false hope of Nana advancing.

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81/104 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Leon Kennedy > Riku | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/14/2008 8:44:40 AM | message detail
Nah, he's a Ratchet & Clank fanboy, I'm sure.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: 1st place, 57296 votes, 45.06%
HaRRicH | Posted 10/14/2008 8:45:36 AM | message detail
The same kirby who got 48% on him by a second tier MGS character?

Second-tier? Only because Solid Snake is first-tier; Big Boss is the star of MGS3 and is featured in the current GotY-runner-up while looking a lot like Solid. By all means, that's not an insult to Kirby. People are only taking it this way because we didn't expect BB to pull through like this.


Plus, if it comes down to Kirby and Chief being really close, bracket voters will give Chief the win, since I'd bet at least 70% of the brackets have Chief first, with Kriby having barely any.

By the time their match comes, do you realize most people here will have lost their brackets to L-Block? Many of us will have also been reminded of taking Shadow to the Division Finals and other such upsets, too. Bracket support will be largely ignored from then on (and, in fact, is probably start dying down soon since many people are being decimated this early in the contest).



About today's match: holy moly. Leon, you impress me...though Dante's probably beating you down again, especially since he now has DMC4. Still, maybe Leon can hang on this time. He's crushing Riku and Ramza will probably share the match with him. I'll wait until the end of the match to say much more, but Riku better come back as much as he can here if he wants to have a decent shot next round.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
BagFries | Posted 10/14/2008 8:58:47 AM | message detail
I don't care how much of a drop-off Leon had in relation to Pikachu last year, Riku's no pikachu. Dante > Leon should be considered the heavy favorite for the next round. You don't lose to someone by 17% and then beat them, without any SFF holding you back originally, or a more significant overlap than Dante/Leon. 3 PS2 Capcom characters last year (yes Leon was also on GC), and Pikachu. He stuck out like all hell. Riku isn't going to be given that same benefit with Ramza there, or Laharl. That's a split in the RPG vote right there, and one less person Leon has to worry about siphoning his votes. Not to mention Riku is a PS character as well. Pikachu had the perfect storm, and I seriously doubt Riku's going to be able to replicate it.

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eat me
Yesmar | Posted 10/14/2008 8:59:44 AM | message detail
In some defense of Leon last year, I think Pikachu might have underperformed for some reason in the second round. If you crunch the numbers, Leon went from getting around 55-56% on Vivi to getting 60% on him. On the other hand, Pikachu's numbers against Tidus stayed mostly the same. Now either Tidus avoided LFF while rSFFing Vivi at the same time, or Pikachu just fluked out an underperformance for some reason.


Take that, people complaining about him advancing due to fanbsase split!
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""This is my chance to avenge my father's death. This time, he won't walk away.""--Ike
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2008 9:10:57 AM | message detail
Or Isaac was hurting Pikachu
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BagFries | Posted 10/14/2008 9:14:53 AM | message detail
Which would be the blatantly obvious rational behind the match. It's not like they're both stars of RPG's on the same handheld or anything nope, not at all. Not to mention that Leon probably benefitted from the "sore thumb" theory just a round before Pikachu did, thus enhancing the effects. Sharing the poll with two other RPG characters + Mistah Kennedy might just do that to you.

Anyone expecting another miracle out of Riku is deluding themselves.

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eat me
Yesmar | Posted 10/14/2008 9:21:39 AM | message detail
Or Isaac was hurting Pikachu

I'm talking about the second round.
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""This is my chance to avenge my father's death. This time, he won't walk away.""--Ike
HaRRicH | Posted 10/14/2008 9:22:49 AM | message detail
If standing out like a sore thumb is the rational here, there is potential for Kirby to stand out something major if he makes it there. He would be up again some combination of Big Boss, Master Chief, Dante, Leon, and maybe Riku (who would be the worst for Kirby in this situation)...

...in fact, if that worked for Pikachu, it could work for Kirby next round even better since there's no doubt BB and Raiden share a fanbase.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
BagFries | Posted 10/14/2008 9:28:19 AM | message detail
The Kirbster might not even need the sore thumb effect to get past the next round, thanks to BB and Raiden having just about as much overlap as anyone could possibly ever have. It's pretty funny how BB is still being given the benefit of the doubt in advancing next round while Leon is being thrown under the bus. Pretty hypocritical standpoint for anyone who believes that imo. Anyway, the sore thumb can only help out Kirby even more, which is pretty much why I'm confident in his ability to take win next round.

I have MC > Kirby at the end of the MC/Kirby/Dante/Leon/Riku/BB/Raiden/Jesus mess, but wouldn't be too surprised to see Kirby > MC, Kirby > Dante, or Dante > Kirby as well. I'm pretty confident Kirby finishes somewhere in the top 2, and that Leon doesn't finish at all. But honestly, so many different things can happen there it's pretty ridiculous.
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eat me
H__RR____H | Posted 10/14/2008 9:51:12 AM | message detail
It's pretty funny how BB is still being given the benefit of the doubt in advancing next round while Leon is being thrown under the bus. Pretty hypocritical standpoint for anyone who believes that imo.

To be fair, Big Boss is heavily favored over Raiden in the SFF-department while Dante is heavily favored over Leon. BB and Leon each have a lot of room between them and Kirby/Riku though, I'm with ya on that.
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Lobby Hero
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/14/2008 9:53:26 AM | message detail
We haven't seen Ramza since 2003 so I decided to make a list of what was the last contest each character has been in. (excluding this contest)

SC2k2
Abe
Akira Yuki
Aya Brea
Bub
Chop Chop Master Onion
Dirk the Daring
Gabe Logan
Goemon
Iori Yagami
Kane
Kazuya
Kyo
Morrigan
Mr. Driller
Ms. Pac-Man
Pitfall Harry
Q*Bert
Serious Sam
Servbot
Strider
Tina Armstrong
Ulala
Total: 22

SC2k3
AiAi
Felix
Ken Masters
Kite
Mr. Resetti
Raziel
Total: 6

SC2k4
Earthworm Jim
JC Denton
Kain
Max Payne
Protoman
Ryo Hazuki
Sly Cooper
Tanner
Terry Bogard
Total: 9

Sp2k5
Albedo
Andross
Ansem
Dr. Robotnik
Dr. Wily
Ghaleon
Giygas
Kuja
Lavos
Luca Blight
M. Bison
Master Hand
Mithos
Mother Brain
Nemesis
Officer Tenpenny
Ramirez
Sigma
Sin
Ultros
Total: 20

SC2k5
Carl Johnson
Conker
Jin Kazama
King of All Cosmos
Manny Calavera
Yuri Hyuga
Total: 6

SC2k6
Alyx Vance
Amy Rose
Carmen Sandiego
Celes Chere
Chun Li
Claire Redfield
Cortana
Ivy Valentine
Jade
Joanna Dark
Kairi
Kasumi
Lenneth Valkyrie
Marle
Nidoran F
Princess Daisy
Roll
Sheena Fujibayashi
Soma Cruz
Terra Branford
Total: 20

SC2k7
Ada Wong
Aeris Gainsborough
Agent 47
Agent J
Akuma
Axel
Bidoof
Bomberman
Daxter
Diablo
Haseo
HK-47
Jak
Lara Croft
Little Mac
Matt
Midgar Zolom
Nathan Hale
PaRappa the Rapper
Prince of All Cosmos
Prince of Persia
Princess Peach
Pyramid Head
Rayman
Ridley
Rikku
Sam Fisher
Sarah Kerrigan
Serge
Simon Belmont
Spyro the Dragon
The Boss
Thrall
Tingle
Toad
Tommy Vercetti
Vaan
Vergil
Viewtiful Joe
Vyse
Yuna
Zelos Wilder
Total: 42

We should rally for Ken next contest.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 81/104 Today's Match: Riku > Leon
Water Sitar | Posted 10/14/2008 10:08:07 AM | message detail
Yeah, I think Ken is the best character to bring back.
vcharon | Posted 10/14/2008 10:08:38 AM | message detail
Deserving characters from that list:

Ken Masters
Raziel
Kain
Max Payne
Jin Kazama
Chun Li
Terra Branford
Ada Wong
Aeris Gainsborough
Akuma
Axel
Diablo
Prince of Persia
Pyramid Head
Rikku
The Boss
Tommy Vercetti
Vergil
Yuna


I'll agree with Ken deserving a rally. I'll admit I put Kain/Raziel on this list perhaps out of favoritism, but whatever. The others are all legitimate and possibly interesting to see what they can do. Pyramid Head beat Chris... obviously he probably couldn't do that again, but it'd be nice to see him in this format without Horror SFF. Max Payne... the movie is coming out soon, could impact him somewhat, maybe.

Most of the others sort of speak for themselves. They are certainly more worthy than the ton of crap entries we've seen this year.
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:>
H__RR____H | Posted 10/14/2008 10:09:59 AM | message detail
I'm glad to see Abe was mentioned; I'm playing through Oddworld: Abe's Exodus now and miss the guy!



Also, somebody should compile a win-loss record of all those snubs and compare it to the records of the characters this year that have been in at least one other contest before -- no newcomers this year. Out of all of the ones you listed, I think there have only been about eighteen victories total from them (not counting second-place finishes from last year)...I'm pretty sure Link has twenty-eight, Cloud has eighteen, and Sephiroth has twentyeach before this contest. That's not counting the rest of the returning characters we have this year.

Pretty wild.
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Lobby Hero
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/14/2008 10:11:43 AM | message detail
Lara Croft deserves a chance to come back. Obviously shes not very strong and all, but she's still stronger and better to have in then alot of the turbo fodder we have this year.
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Albion Hero
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vcharon | Posted 10/14/2008 10:12:23 AM | message detail
That sounds like a pretty big job... but it's safe to say none of them have the terrible record Guybrush does.
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:>
vcharon | Posted 10/14/2008 10:12:54 AM | message detail
Lara does, must have missed her. My mistake.
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:>
H__RR____H | Posted 10/14/2008 10:14:17 AM | message detail
I'd like to see Ridley again now that he has two boss-fights in SSBB, just to see if it affected him at all to be a boss in a bigger game than he's ever been in before...and -- BT be damned -- Protoman both out of favoritism and the off-chance Zero really messed him up. I'd probably replace those two with Kain/Raziel. Otherwise, vcharon has the list about the way I'd have it.
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Lobby Hero
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The Mana Sword | Posted 10/14/2008 10:15:54 AM | message detail
Dunno if this is worth mentioning but apparently Gamespot is running some kind of Capcom character battle right now the format is pretty silly but the results thus far are moderately interesting.

This one's actual a supposed to be a "who would win in a fight" thing, but still.

http://www.gamespot.com/character-battle/15/capcom
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Kleenex - Not on his computer.
BagFries | Posted 10/14/2008 10:18:17 AM | message detail

To be fair, Big Boss is heavily favored over Raiden in the SFF-department while Dante is heavily favored over Leon. BB and Leon each have a lot of room between them and Kirby/Riku though, I'm with ya on that.


Yeah, difference is one is guaranteed significant fanbase overlap, the other not so much.

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eat me
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/14/2008 10:19:08 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/14/2008 10:21:26 AM | message detail
According to that battle..

1. Ryu
2. Dante
3. Ken
4. Nero
5. Leon Kennedy

Mega Man isn't even top 5 o.O
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Albion Hero
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consolefreak | Posted 10/14/2008 10:29:32 AM | message detail
I'm not convinced about this whole "Kirby might slip by" due to Raiden-BB SFF (or rather, "LFF") thing next round. Considering BB >>>> Kirby and Raiden << Chief, one has to at least consider the MGS vote to approach/exceed 50%, and no matter the split then, at least one of them gets by. I understand that LFF compensates for this otherwise obvious +50% stock in the vote, but they'll still be getting in the 40s together at least.

Furthermore, I think the consensus here (rightfully so) is that BB >>> Raiden and Chief >> Kirby. In this case, the poll ending in Master Chief > Kirby is highly unlikely. You'd have to give Big Boss + Raiden like 35% or something.

In short, if Big Boss gets another MGS3 pic, color me surprised if both Chief and Kirby advance.


But that's not going to have nearly the impact that Dante-Leon SFF will have. After all, Leon went from beating Pika by 9% to losing by 10%.

And Ramza, if he makes it, will be hurting Riku more than anyone else, though I don't think that'll even be necessary.

I understand that Ramza will have a smaller impact than Dante, but I'm saying Ramza's just bonus. Riku has no reason for a Pikachu-level increase.

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90/108. Today : Dante > Ramza. Tomorrow : Sonic > Magus
Those who speak do not know, those who know do not speak - Soviet adage
BDawg | Posted 10/14/2008 10:54:05 AM | message detail
That list of 2006 snubs brings back the horror, THE HORROR. Oh yeah and hi there Soma Cruz among female fodder. Really Chun Li is the only one of that list that deserves to come back, and even then it isn't really a major travesty or anything.
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Should I start running now?
TestIcicles | Posted 10/14/2008 10:56:36 AM | message detail
At this point if I won the guru (not gonna happen), I'd probably choose Ken or Chris Redfield for the rally nom. That or one of the general classes from Diablo 3... or Prince of Persia if the new game is sexgasmic.

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mmm test icicles
vcharon | Posted 10/14/2008 10:59:19 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure the list of '08 fodder/no returns will be just as "impressive" as any other year, perhaps moreso.
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:>
XxSoulxX | Posted 10/14/2008 11:02:07 AM | message detail
I'm rallying for Starfox 64 or Diablo 2. Haven't made up my mind yet. No idea for character.
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Good Times,
Great Memories
hellfire104 | Posted 10/14/2008 11:02:47 AM | message detail
MC > Mirby next round. BB will get a non MGS3, and he will lose. SFF to **** by a much stronger raiden.

Even with the MGS3 pic, Kirby wins.
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Contest Point Total: 77 Rank: 98%tile, Tied for 396
This Pick: Leon Kennedy > Riku
vcharon | Posted 10/14/2008 11:10:15 AM | message detail
... wait a second, Raiden is stronger than Big Boss now?
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:>
TRE Public Account | Posted 10/14/2008 11:11:50 AM | message detail
Mega Man isn't even top 5 o.O

Mega Man can't hurt humans, right? A lot of the opponents are human so Mega Man won't do very well.
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To right the countless wrongs of our day, we shine this light of true redemption, that this place may become as paradise. What a wonderful world such would be
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/14/2008 11:12:31 AM | message detail

TRE Public Account (#133)
Mega Man isn't even top 5 o.O

Mega Man can't hurt humans, right? A lot of the opponents are human so Mega Man won't do very well.



I doubt many people are really voting for "who would win in a fight" though, those things always turn into popularity contests no matter official rules
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Albion Hero
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
TRE Public Account | Posted 10/14/2008 11:21:08 AM | message detail
While true, the people who vote for more than a few matches are more likely to be people who read the rules. Also through the GameFAQs contest is a popularity contest, you still see people who take it as a "who would win in a fight" contest.
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To right the countless wrongs of our day, we shine this light of true redemption, that this place may become as paradise. What a wonderful world such would be
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/14/2008 11:27:01 AM | message detail
I've honestly never understood why Mega Man is so strong here to begin with.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/14/2008 11:33:19 AM | message detail
If I had to guess with no prior knowledge of the contests, I'd think Megaman would be top 20 character, but not noble 9.
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Albion Hero
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/14/2008 11:35:26 AM | message detail
Seems I'm safe with my bold prediction of Riku finishing closer to 3rd place finisher then Leon.
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Albion Hero
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/14/2008 11:35:29 AM | message detail
Same. Unlike Mario or Sonic, he's never been the face of a system, and his best years are long behind him.
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TestIcicles | Posted 10/14/2008 11:36:29 AM | message detail
Pretty hilarious that Leon > Capt Mac was a better pick than Riku > Leon

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mmm test icicles
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/14/2008 11:37:18 AM | message detail
Then again, I'd also not even put Crono in top 20 with no prior knowledge of the contests since I've never gotten what makes him so strong yet other clasic RPG characters aren't, even if its my favorite game. I was shocked in 2002 when he did so well.
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Albion Hero
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/14/2008 11:46:00 AM | message detail
The thing with Crono is that going off previous knowledge, the site obviously loves Chrono Trigger and Square-Enix in general. I don't understand Mega Man. There's no history of this site loving his games, even his franchise kind of sucked it up in the series contest.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/14/2008 11:51:27 AM | message detail

MegatokyoEd (#142)
The thing with Crono is that going off previous knowledge, the site obviously loves Chrono Trigger and Square-Enix in general. I don't understand Mega Man. There's no history of this site loving his games, even his franchise kind of sucked it up in the series contest.



Going by that knowledge, Kefka would be pretty strong too though
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Albion Hero
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Link The Hylian | Posted 10/14/2008 11:56:41 AM | message detail
Replace Layton in yesterdays match with Leon. Who wins and what are the percentages?

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"The PS2 had 12,000,000 pre orders. To give you an idea of how many people that is that's over half of the world population." - DifferentialEquation
Biolizard28 | Posted 10/14/2008 12:02:13 PM | message detail
Ken is the only character who's been gone since 2003 worth bringing back. Seriously, he got *****y draws both times.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/14/2008 12:03:23 PM | message detail
Didn't he face both Samus and Sonic? Thats hardly any way to show strength
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Albion Hero
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Biolizard28 | Posted 10/14/2008 12:10:59 PM | message detail
Also, fun fact: Soma Cruz is the only member of the 2005 male bracket to not have appeared in a contest since.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
Biolizard28 | Posted 10/14/2008 12:11:17 PM | message detail
*2006 oops
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
ALLEN LIED! PEOPLE LOST THEIR ABILITY TO CONTEST!
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/14/2008 12:26:41 PM | message detail
IMO, Gabe Logan deserves another shot at this. He got a crappy draw, going against Sephiroth.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
MasaHikoTron | Posted 10/14/2008 12:26:59 PM | message detail
If we ever have that video game contest, we're getting in Persona 3 damnit >_> even if it equals to about Xenogears strength I'll be happy <_<

Also, the reason Crono does so well is because Chrono Trigger was a one of a kind RPG for the SNES. There's no other games like it, and it's easily one of the most popular ROMs out there, so obviously there's a strong fanbase out there. Sure it diminishes each year, but the fact remains.
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
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