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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 596

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2008 9:09:26 PM | message detail
Where are all of Riku's votes going? Bingo?

Help Archive Contest Results! Please visit this link and go nuts: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45766338

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

~*aprosenf's poll script*~
http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/13/2008 9:09:44 PM | message detail
Expected "Riku's small time!"
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/13/2008 9:10:50 PM | message detail
And now I'll admit this is over. Looks like MacMillan has a chance at 3rd though. Stalled Siegfried.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/13/2008 9:13:50 PM | message detail
AHEM! http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45929493
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"A joke format for a joke contest deserves joke winners." -Moltar
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/13/2008 9:13:57 PM | message detail
It's funny that Siegfried is doing a lot worse than Nightmare, considering their connection.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 9:15:01 PM | message detail
I thought Siegfred had a shot for 20% here... he's like the good guy of SC whereas Nightmare is the bad guy.
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Albion Hero
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/13/2008 9:15:09 PM | message detail
I still wouldn't count out Riku next round. Don't forget he completely sucked it up in round 1 last year only to inexplicably beat Ryu even though it made zero sense in round 2. Same exact thing could happen.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
Lopen | Posted 10/13/2008 9:15:20 PM | message detail
Why is everyone calling Siegfried the SC main character anyway.

I swore I thought it was Mitsurugi or like... Xiang Hua or something.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
satai_delenn | Posted 10/13/2008 9:15:26 PM | message detail
Riku won two matches last year.

Riku advanced twice last year, but he never won.
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Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2008 9:15:30 PM | message detail
Yeah, if Dante and Leon split as badly as they did last year...

*refreshes*

oh god riku

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 9:15:44 PM | message detail
Macmillan be cuttin'
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Albion Hero
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/13/2008 9:16:03 PM | message detail
MacMillan CUT
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Majin Lou | Posted 10/13/2008 9:16:10 PM | message detail
lol Riku
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Stop my tears. Stop my loving. Kill my memories.
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2008 9:16:18 PM | message detail
Riku advanced twice last year, but he never won.

He beat out Roxas and Haseo, and then Ryu and Nightmare. I'd call that winning a match.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2008 9:16:18 PM | message detail
ULTOWNED

And yeah, I'm jumping off the Dante > Riku bandwagon. This is disgustingly bad.
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/13/2008 9:16:19 PM | message detail
ok... Riku might not even reach 30% if he keeps falling like that

ugh... my initial prediction was Leon 41% / Riku 30% ....
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Today's prediction: Leon 35.61% - Riku 33.30% - German name 18.35% - MacMillan 12.74%
Status:
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 9:16:46 PM | message detail

Lopen (#008)
Why is everyone calling Siegfried the SC main character anyway.

I swore I thought it was Mitsurugi or like... Xiang Hua or something.



Nightmare is the main focus of the PS3 box of SC4, and Siegfred is the main focus of the 360 box of SC4. Nightmare wields the Soul Edge, and Siegfred wields the Soul Calibur. They are eseentially the 2 main characters of the series.
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Albion Hero
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BagFries | Posted 10/13/2008 9:16:46 PM | message detail
MIIIIIIIISTAAH KENNEDY

Suck it Dante > Riku supporters (even though I secretly feared than Dante > Leon was the worst pick in the ever)

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all hail ec your lord and savior
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/13/2008 9:17:07 PM | message detail
What's going on? MacMillan won't roll over and die!
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
Xcarvenger | Posted 10/13/2008 9:17:11 PM | message detail
remember when leon went from beating vivi by 10% to losing to pikachu by 10% when dante is in the poll? yeah, riku is a lock imho
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Lopen | Posted 10/13/2008 9:19:07 PM | message detail
Riku's still going to own Leon next round. Don't underestimate QXGJPFF
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
RockMFR 5 | Posted 10/13/2008 9:19:10 PM | message detail
How does someone go from getting 18% on the Block and Snake to this? lol
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ZFS | Posted 10/13/2008 9:19:57 PM | message detail
Keepin' the faith alive

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kept you waiting, huh
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/13/2008 9:20:04 PM | message detail
Riku is obviously the Square version of a joke character and gets stronger the more he wins!
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Demyx is better than Axel.
The Real Truth | Posted 10/13/2008 9:20:48 PM | message detail
Riku will have more trouble than Pikachu because more he'll share more of a fanbase with Dante and Leon do with Pikachu. That and Leon has his most popular game on 3 consoles now.
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/13/2008 9:20:54 PM | message detail
MacMillan > Siegfried in the day, right?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2008 9:21:07 PM | message detail
This match is very familiar...

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2890&num=4

Obviously Riku is splitting 100% of the vote with MacMillan and Siggy.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2008 9:21:08 PM | message detail
I can't be the only one not surprised here, right?
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The Real Truth | Posted 10/13/2008 9:21:17 PM | message detail
oh my the typos
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 9:21:55 PM | message detail

Gaddswell (#026)
MacMillan > Siegfried in the day, right?



Yeah, CoD4 should have similiar voting patterns to Halo, while not as big obviously, but should do best during ASV and such
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Albion Hero
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 9:22:21 PM | message detail
Also don't forget Ramza will likely be in the match, too. Ramza should take a couple votes from Riku.
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Albion Hero
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
Xcarvenger | Posted 10/13/2008 9:24:41 PM | message detail
well that's good because riku won't win next round then >_>

but advancing!
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/13/2008 9:25:56 PM | message detail
Leon is obviously equal with Auron now. Just look at Chris. The RE boost has arrived!
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Demyx is better than Axel.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 9:28:17 PM | message detail
MacMillan is dropping, oh well. Makes me wonder what Captain Price, the actual main character of CoD4 would do though
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Albion Hero
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/13/2008 9:34:10 PM | message detail
I can't be the only one not surprised here, right?


Somewhat.

Just surprised that something that looks like Hedorah is doing this well.
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Warning, there is a bear right behind you.
Ride Him.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 9:36:27 PM | message detail

Shoenin_Kakashi (#035)
I can't be the only one not surprised here, right?


Somewhat.

Just surprised that something that looks like Hedorah is doing this well.



Call of Duty 4 isnt a complete a dud here looking at past polls
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Albion Hero
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 9:42:14 PM | message detail
So Leon should do a number on Riku over night.
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Albion Hero
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/13/2008 9:43:26 PM | message detail
God Riku is doing horrible, he's not even getting 100 vote updates on SIEGFRIED now.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/13/2008 9:43:40 PM | message detail
ugh... my initial prediction was Leon 41% / Riku 30% ....

Ugh, my original prediction was better than my current one. It was the one where I had Riku around 32% and Leon almost at 40%.

Once Power Hour is over, MacMillan should start dropping.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
satai_delenn | Posted 10/13/2008 9:44:33 PM | message detail
Well...time to go continue my hard mode KH1 replay and pretend like Riku isn't being a total tool.

At least I had Leon > Riku in my bracket. Small blessings!
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Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/13/2008 9:45:24 PM | message detail
Judging by this and last year's performance, I can only conclude that Riku will once again advance in Round 2. I suspect he may find some type of sport in this.
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Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/13/2008 9:46:00 PM | message detail
Seaweed is underperforming.
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Justin's CB Points: 88 | Points After this Round: 92
Today: Leon > Riku | Tomorrow: Dante > Laharl
Gaddswell | Posted 10/13/2008 9:49:00 PM | message detail
About time Riku got a 30% update.
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sig
Lopen | Posted 10/13/2008 9:51:08 PM | message detail
Judging by this and last year's performance, I can only conclude that Riku will once again advance in Round 2. I suspect he may find some type of sport in this.

XD. I might just sig that.

... this thing is a farce anyway...! Dammit, Chief.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 9:51:19 PM | message detail

PartOfYourWorld (#041)
Judging by this and last year's performance, I can only conclude that Riku will once again advance in Round 2. I suspect he may find some type of sport in this.



he doesn't have a character from his same game holding him back this time.
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Albion Hero
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/13/2008 9:52:37 PM | message detail

he doesn't have a character from his same game holding him back this time.


Ryu H had more votes than Riku and Roxas combined.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 9:53:10 PM | message detail

MegatokyoEd (#046)

he doesn't have a character from his same game holding him back this time.


Ryu H had more votes than Riku and Roxas combined.



And Ryu woulda beaten him again if he didn't have Nightmare SFFing him, and Snake to an extent.
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Albion Hero
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/13/2008 9:53:49 PM | message detail
Nightmare SFFing him? What the hell is this crap. Why would Nightmare leech off Ryu at all.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
ZFS | Posted 10/13/2008 9:54:02 PM | message detail
Ryu H had more votes than Riku and Roxas combined.

surprise haseo lff

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kept you waiting, huh
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 9:54:34 PM | message detail

MegatokyoEd (#048)
Nightmare SFFing him? What the hell is this crap. Why would Nightmare leech off Ryu at all.



Ryu is the most popular dead or alive character

Nightmare is the most popular soul calibur character

Why would most popular characters from 2 of the best selling fighting games NOT sff eachother?
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Albion Hero
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