GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 595

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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/13/2008 7:10:51 PM | message detail

Bold Prediction: Riku will end up closer to either Siegfreid or MacMillan (Whoever is 3rd) then Leon
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Yesmar | Posted 10/13/2008 7:19:09 PM | message detail

Bold Prediction: Riku will end up closer to either Siegfreid or MacMillan (Whoever is 3rd) then Leon

I won't be surprised if that happens. Riku's performance against Snake in Round 2 was pretty damn crappy.
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""This is my chance to avenge my father's death. This time, he won't walk away.""--Ike

BagFries | Posted 10/13/2008 7:20:20 PM | message detail

Yeah not like we've ever seen MGS/KH go wacky before nope never happened

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eat me

Yesmar | Posted 10/13/2008 7:22:52 PM | message detail

In case anyone's interested, I have just put together a list of the top comebacks of all time in GameFAQS contests:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=572228&topic=45956004

Here's just the Top 25. All matches above 500 can be found at the link above.

Notes: I adjusted all of the the totals to reflect a base of 100,000 votes. For example, Sonic's comeback against Crono is 200 votes larger than Starcraft's comeback against Wind Waker. HOWEVER, Sonic/Crono also drew in over 40,000 votes more than Starcraft/Wind Waker did, so is it really fair that Sonic is considered to have had the larger comeback?

For fourways, I took the votals of the two characters involved in the comeback and based my adjustments off of those. Basically I took (100,000/Match Total) and then multiplied the answer by the amount of the comeback. If somebody thinks that this is mathematically wrong, please tell me, although it makes sense to me.

The number in parantheses is real comeback total, while the number preceding it is the adjusted number. Numbers with the approximation symbol are from oldschool matches with no archived updates, so I used the estimates that were given in the Wiki articles for the matches. Without further ado, here is the list:

1. Frog/Axel: 3754 (1903)
2. DK/DH: 3203 (3108)
3. Fenix/Ocelot: 2849 (1276)
4. Frog/Master Chief: 2650 (2413)
5. Starcraft/Wind Waker: 2442 (2022)
6. Raiden/Sam Fisher: 2304 (1158)
7. Arthas/Ike: 2133 (1492)
8. Phoenix Wright/Bomberman: 2122 (1295)
9. Master Chief/Donkey Kong: 2070 (2044)
10. Tails/The Boss: 2041(917)
11. Vincent/Crono (2007): 1912 (1146)
12. Ike/Duke Nukem: 1804 (1371)
13. Sonic/Samus: ~1803 (~1500)
14. Snake/L-Block R4: 1750 (1562)
15. Sonic/Crono: 1748 (2204)
16. Gordon Freeman/Ike: 1639 (1233)
17. Aya Brea/Donkey Kong: ~1606 (~1000)
18. Shadow/Zidane: 1580 (713)
19. Master Chief/Sub-Zero: 1446 (1855)
20. Luigi/Mudkip: 1430 (1059)
21. Keka/Niko: 1346 (812)
22. Ryu H./Jill II: 1325 (933)
23. Tidus/Weighted Companion Cube: 1252 (1096)
24. Magus/Ganondorf: AT LEAST 1238 (1358)*
25. Kefka/Fenix R2: 1222 (515)

*Updates are lost
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""This is my chance to avenge my father's death. This time, he won't walk away.""--Ike

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2008 7:24:29 PM | message detail

Interesting stuff...still don't understand how Ike has such a good day vote.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

satai_delenn | Posted 10/13/2008 7:25:33 PM | message detail

Hey, neat. It's interesting to see the same names pop up on that list multiple times. Augh stupid Frog.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2008 7:33:18 PM | message detail

Not really surprising. All of those characters are either heavily day voty, or heavily night voty
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg

Yesmar | Posted 10/13/2008 7:35:36 PM | message detail

Hee hee. I just noticed that only 3 of the characters who pulled off the Top 10 comebacks ended up actually winning the match.
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""This is my chance to avenge my father's death. This time, he won't walk away.""--Ike

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2008 7:53:23 PM | message detail

Hmm, if Ulti isn't doing the Post-Contest Analysis this year, who is? Ngamer? Karma? Moltar? creativename? fedor?

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 7:55:00 PM | message detail

KamikazePotato (#409)
Hmm, if Ulti isn't doing the Post-Contest Analysis this year, who is? Ngamer? Karma? Moltar? creativename? fedor?

On the b8 wiki ya mean?
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Albion Hero
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2008 7:55:35 PM | message detail

PCA are posted on the board first.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/13/2008 7:58:11 PM | message detail

We should do the PCA this year, KP!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2008 7:58:51 PM | message detail

I would do the PCA if I thought anyone here would want me to, which I highly doubt they do.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2008 7:59:20 PM | message detail

Round 1

Division 7- Match 3

Captain MacMillan

An NPC from Call of Duty 4. Known for covering himself with seaweed?

Leon Kennedy

Leon's back again, and his reward is another meeting with Dante in the second round. Poor guy.

Riku

Impressive last year, he has a great shot of making the division finals.

Siegfried Schtauffen

lol soul calibur fodder

Analysis:

We have a bit of an interesting match here. It will definitely be Leon and Riku advancing, but how they look in relation to eachother will be very key for the rest of this division. If Riku holds up even moderately well here, he's pretty much guarenteed to go to round 3 with Dante, but if Leon blows Riku out of the water, we might see Dante and Leon in round 3, pretty much giving Chief and Kirby a bye to round 4.

Leon is the heavy favourite to come first today, and with good reason. He looked great last year until he ran headlong into Dante, and Vivi impressing this year makes him look even better. But Riku was only a tad behind Kratos last year, which is pretty impressive in its own right. Should be a good match, though maybe not exciting. A very telling match to be sure.

As for MacMillan and Siegfried, Siegfried should be a good deal weaker than Nightmare, and MacMillan will most likely be turbofodder.

TuRtLe's Prediction: Leon 38%, Riku 34%, Siegfried 18%, MacMillan 10%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Leon > Riku
TuRtLe's Vote: I'm gonna sit this suckfest out.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg

GameZACKS | Posted 10/13/2008 7:59:46 PM | message detail

tranny's doing the PCA

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LONG LIVE GAMEZACKS

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2008 8:00:07 PM | message detail

I do my own PCA every year. If noone else wants to we can just use mine on the Wiki
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2008 8:00:32 PM | message detail

tranny sounds good.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

charmander6000 | Posted 10/13/2008 8:11:03 PM | message detail

I don't think the PCA should be done by only one person. Depending on my schedule I may do one as well.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 77/100 Today's Match: Master Chief > Raiden

charmander6000 | Posted 10/13/2008 8:12:16 PM | message detail

Match XXVII: Captain MacMillan vs. Leon Kennedy vs. Riku vs. Siegfried Schtauffen

Information:

Name: Captain MacMillan
Game/Series From: Call of Duty 4
2007 Results: Did not enter

I’ve never played the game, but from what I can see MacMillan is obviously a captain among a game with several of them. It doesn’t seem that he’s the main character, but more part of an ensemble cast. GameFAQs has become more casual friendly, though it still has a long way to go.

Name: Leon Kennedy
Game/Series From: Resident Evil series
2007 Results: 1st in round 1, 1st in round 2, 3rd in round 3

Leon started off well dominating both his first two matches, but when Dante was added to the mix in round 3 both characters had a random drop in strength letting Pikachu come in first and causing Leon to have an early exit. Sadly for him next round he has a familiar face to go up against.

Name: Riku
Game/Series From: Kingdom Hearts series
2007 Results: 2nd in round 1, 2nd in round 2, 4th in round 3

Riku’s first round match included Roxas and while it was expected of him to not perform as well Riku let Ryu Hayabusa defeat him and Roxas combined yet in round 2 Riku was somehow able to defeat Hayabusa by a slim margin. Riku has another tough opponent in the first round though this time he has nothing holding him back.

Name: Siegfried Schtauffen
Game/Series From: Soul Calibur series
2007 Results: Did not enter

Didn’t we see this guy already? Siegfried is the alter ego of Nightmare though I guess he could be considered a character in his own right. Unlike Nightmare Siegfried doesn’t have an easy match in the first round and probably being weaker than Nightmare this may be his only match.

Analysis:

When predicting this match I had a hard time picking first and second yet the board didn’t seem to have much troubles. This match has the potential of being really close yet no one is talking about the match and even more surprisingly what I thought would have been the consensus pick is only the pick of 10% of the gurus.

Also while I think that the battle for first will be interesting the battle for second could be just as interesting though that’s because I have no idea of their strength. I’m not expecting much of Siegfried, while he’s a main component of the story he isn’t that great as a fighting character. While it’s arguable of whether or not Nightmare is the strongest Soul Calibur character Siegfried won’t be the one who is stronger. Whether or not he’ll come in last will be up to the strength of this opponent.

As GameFAQs becomes less Nintendo friendly more casual characters are starting to do well, but looking at some of the performances so far this round you can’t say that casual characters are being favoured and that is what I think is going to happen to MacMillan. Call of Duty series is starting to pick up steam however with so many playable characters it’s hard for fans of that series to back up one individual character. MacMillan and Siegfried should be an interesting match of which character has the slightly bigger fanbase.

charmander6000 | Posted 10/13/2008 8:12:31 PM | message detail

The real match begins with Leon and Riku. Leon to my surprise is the huge favourite at coming first and while I don’t doubt his chances it’s a surprise that no one is giving Riku the time of day. Leon was kicking ass before his round 3 match and was working off of the newly re-release of Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition. This is the first year since his debut in 2005 that he didn’t have any new console releases of Resident Evil 4 though Leon doesn’t seem to be a character that is easily forgettable by Resident Evil fans. Leon only has one match to prove his strength quickly before his date with Dante next round which will very likely produce the same wacky results as it did last year.

When I was making my bracket I picked Riku and while I spent some time on this match I think I spent more time thinking whether or not Riku will beat Dante next round. I know Riku was crushed by Hayabusa and probably only beat him because of the random voters that showed up decided to favour Riku more than what they did in round one of last year, but seeing Hayabusa upsetting Zero makes Riku’s win look a bit more impressive. Even before the contest started both Riku and Leon were suppose to have a close match with each other and with nothing helping either of them this year it will probably still be a close match.

We’ll have a close match for first and we could also have a potential close match for third. If I want to have a chance to make it to the top 50 it will have to be in this round and I pretty much need to get all of my matches correct especially this match since in round 2 my first two matches already have a character eliminated (Shadow, Niko) and the third match doesn’t look like it will go my way.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Riku > Leon

charmander6000’s Prediction: Riku – 34.15%, Leon – 32.63%, MacMillan – 18.32%, Siegfried – 14.90%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 77/100 Today's Match: Master Chief > Raiden

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 8:14:37 PM | message detail

hey charmander, you might not know this, but MacMillan is a dude who is in one level then dies, he was just rallied by 4chan as a joke cuz he looks like a Seaweed guy. He's not an accurate representation of CoD
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Albion Hero
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/13/2008 8:28:48 PM | message detail

Really no wonder it was hard to find information on him. You can knock off about 10% from him, but then again 4chan could be a scary threat if they're going to back him up.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 77/100 Today's Match: Master Chief > Raiden

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 8:34:48 PM | message detail

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_MdxJqWYkQ

Thats all you really need to know about him. That "Oi Suzy!" became an internet fad that 4chan obsessed about for a while
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2008 8:38:20 PM | message detail

4chan is worth about 1000 votes in the first hour and that's it.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 8:39:00 PM | message detail

BlAcK TuRtLe (#424)
4chan is worth about 1000 votes in the first hour and that's it.

And more then that counting stuffing, that even they were encouraging on every topic about bidoof last year.
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Albion Hero
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 8:39:30 PM | message detail

MacMillan ain't doing crap to compete with Riku, but just don't be shocked if he's actually beating Riku in the first hour
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 10/13/2008 8:40:15 PM | message detail

Capt. McMillian is the coolest character in COD4 Campaign Mode, by far!

Snipers with ghillie suits rule!

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[Multiple Scorgasms]
Score: 78/104 Today's Pick: Riku > Leon Kennedy

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2008 8:42:05 PM | message detail

You honestly believe that people stuff nowadays? Or do you think that all the anti-cheating measure CJayC had were taken away when he left the site?
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg

MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/13/2008 8:42:37 PM | message detail

4chan is worth a lot more than 1000 when they actually care. They cared in the Ganondorf/Luigi/Mudkip fiasco. I doubt they'll care enough about MacMillan to bother doing it for a while.
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Demyx is better than Axel.

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 8:42:51 PM | message detail

BlAcK TuRtLe (#428)
You honestly believe that people stuff nowadays? Or do you think that all the anti-cheating measure CJayC had were taken away when he left the site?

Yes, I honestly think they do or that dumb little bidoof wouldnt of been competing with vincent till they got tired of stuffing.
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Albion Hero
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 8:46:27 PM | message detail

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2901&num=4

Check first hour of the match. Don't tell me that wasn't stuffing, it even has 2-3k more votes then average for a first hour of a match.
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Albion Hero
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 8:49:06 PM | message detail

Actually, even more then I thought...

This is the match before the Bidoof Match: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2900&num=4

11,406 votes an hour in

This is the match after the Bidoof Match:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2902&num=4

10,971 votes an hour in

And this is the Bidoof Match: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2901&num=4

14,394 votes an hour in

Nope, no stuffing there.
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GameZACKS | Posted 10/13/2008 8:50:43 PM | message detail

do you train to be that ignorant?

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LONG LIVE GAMEZACKS

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 8:51:30 PM | message detail

Are you talking to me? Because if you think I'm ignorant for thinking 3k+ votes then normal an hour in isnt stuffing, then you sir are the ignorant one.
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Albion Hero
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 8:55:38 PM | message detail

Oh and I don't expect 4chan to stuff for him much, he isn't like Bidoof there, but theres a possibility there they may go crazy and stuff for him
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Albion Hero
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2008 8:56:04 PM | message detail

What happened to Chief's day vote? Couldn't even hit 37%.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 8:56:43 PM | message detail

KamikazePotato (#436)
What happened to Chief's day vote? Couldn't even hit 37%.

I wondered that too.. I thought 38% was a given seeing his past votes. It definently doesn't look any better for Chief after seeing this day vote.
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Albion Hero
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Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/13/2008 8:57:35 PM | message detail

I honestly think MacMillan will do better today. I really do. >.>

But to be safe I put him at 16%
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Justin's CB Points: 82 | Points After this Round: 84
Today: Kirby > Big Boss | Tomorrow: Master Chief > Raiden

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/13/2008 8:57:37 PM | message detail

Chief still had a huge day vote compared to what he did last night, but Raiden and Kain were hogging too many votes for him to make a large swing in percentages.
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CB7 Score: 78/100
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 10/13/2008 8:57:39 PM | message detail

Underestimating SquareFAQs this year is a huge mistake. Riku will make a match of this.
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trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2008 8:58:41 PM | message detail

Chief had a pretty awesome day vote.

time for Leon domination
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AmazingKirby | Posted 10/13/2008 8:58:48 PM | message detail

Watch, I bet Riku flops. I'm calling it now...and hoping otherwise.
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caps

Janus5000 | Posted 10/13/2008 8:59:29 PM | message detail

He still went up 3% from where he was last night. Still not up to his own ridiculous standards, but it's not like everyone else didn't drop.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 8:59:39 PM | message detail

Go Leon!
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2008 9:00:32 PM | message detail

yeahhhh leon
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Moltar Status: augh
MacMillan/Leon/Riku/Siegfried - Bracket: Leon > Riku - Vote: Leon (81/104)

MoogleKupo141 | Posted 10/13/2008 9:00:37 PM | message detail

Captain MacMillan 33.33% 3
Leon Kennedy 55.56% 5
Riku 11.11% 1
Siegfried Schtauffen 0% 0

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For your health.
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/13/2008 9:00:56 PM | message detail

Siegfried is getting anti-nazi votes
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Today's prediction: Leon 35.61% - Riku 33.30% - German name 18.35% - MacMillan 12.74%
Status:

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 9:00:58 PM | message detail

so yeah, lol riku
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Albion Hero
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smitelf | Posted 10/13/2008 9:01:09 PM | message detail

*headdesk* my oracle predictions have been sooo bad lately...
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/13/2008 9:01:12 PM | message detail

Captain MacMillan 14.72% 34
Leon Kennedy 40.69% 94
Riku 32.47% 75
Siegfried Schtauffen 12.12% 28
TOTAL VOTES 231

MacMillan > Siegfried?
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