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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 595

Yesmar | Posted 10/13/2008 10:01:02 AM | message detail
Replace Ocelot with Raiden and Kratos with Chief.

And Ocelot was better than fodder last year, and he was probably stronger than Raiden while it's doubtful Kratos is as strong as the Chief.


But Raiden clearly had reasons to be underperforming last year.

Upon checking out his second round match, Ocelot did perform a little better than I had remembered, but still not enough for me to not see a boost to Kratos's level as unreasonable. I will admit that there could have been some FF/MGS SFF in that match, so I partly concede that point. It is possible, although I wouldn't bet on it personally.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 10:04:21 AM | message detail
Ocelot isnt gonna be a high mid carder all of a sudden, he doesnt have the snake picture which boosted boss
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/13/2008 10:10:05 AM | message detail
I understand Revolver's role in MGS4 is absolutely killer, perhaps on par with Solid Snake's...

...people who have played MGS4, how true is this?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2008 10:23:45 AM | message detail
Ocelot isnt gonna be a high mid carder all of a sudden

Liquid went from being Frog's equal to giving Luigi a scare. Surely Ocelot, who has the largest prominence in the game aside from Snake himself, has the possibility of doing the same.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2008 10:37:37 AM | message detail
Everything I've heard about MGS4 has Ocelot as being very important.

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Bracket:
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2008 10:46:31 AM | message detail

HaRRicH (#303)
I understand Revolver's role in MGS4 is absolutely killer, perhaps on par with Solid Snake's...

...people who have played MGS4, how true is this?



Ocelot plays a huge role in MGS4, as pretty much everything that happens revolves around him. He also appears in and plays a major part in each Act (there's 5 acts in all).

Plus he has a good amount of cutscenes just showing off how awesome he is (guns of the patriots baby).
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Kain/MC/Layton/Raiden - Bracket: MC > Raiden - Vote: Raiden (77/100)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2008 10:52:51 AM | message detail
Yeah I mean seriously FOR THE LOVE OF GOD MASSIVE MASSIVE MGS4 SPOILERS DON'T LOOK DON'T LOOK DON'T LOOK

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9I_fQCQpVBg

so yeah Ocelot to the finals
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TestIcicles | Posted 10/13/2008 11:10:41 AM | message detail
GOD DAMMIT SOMEONE GET ME A PS3
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 11:11:41 AM | message detail
just wait till Metal Gear Solid 4: Substance comes to 360 in 2009 IMO
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2008 11:20:16 AM | message detail
Snake 360 boost imminent
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2008 11:21:39 AM | message detail
PartOfYourWorld
Posted 10/13/2008 11:27:26 AM
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#277 Dude, drop the act. Your analysis had Master Chief at 46%. oh yeah nottin surprisin here move along


My analysis had Kain as fodder.

And Vivi may not be the "badass" per se, but he is the only thing to come out of that abortion of a game that doesn't suck.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/13/2008 11:24:01 AM | message detail
I'm certainly hoping Ocelot (being one of my favorite characters and all) receives a healthy boost, but man, Kratos looked pretty damn good last year. The way he resisted Snake and still beat Riku by 3% (something Hayabusa failed to do after his amazing Round 1 performance) was very impressive.

Also, I must point out that Bacon pitting Ocelot and my little Jillybean in the same match again is criminal. Have a heart, dude.
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TestIcicles | Posted 10/13/2008 11:24:49 AM | message detail
My analysis had Kain as fodder.

So then it IS surprising to you. Having 11% less than what you predicted is pretty ****ing surprising you tool.

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Biolizard28 | Posted 10/13/2008 11:26:43 AM | message detail
Ocelot will dominate Kratos. I guarantee it.
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swirIdude | Posted 10/13/2008 11:27:06 AM | message detail
Rydia for Round 2!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/13/2008 11:29:11 AM | message detail
Ocelot will dominate Kratos. I guarantee it.

Once again, I hope you're right, but it just doesn't strike me as realistic (even accounting for a boost). Last year, he had to deal with a powerhouse in the poll and couldn't handle Marcus Fenix. This year, he'll have to deal with a powerhouse in the poll and handle Kratos. Tall order, to say the least.
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voltch | Posted 10/13/2008 11:30:46 AM | message detail
has CoD4,really crushed halo round here.
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Biolizard28 | Posted 10/13/2008 11:32:15 AM | message detail
Kratos is pretty irrelevant nowadays, whereas Ocelot has every reason to be here. I can even see Ocelot costing Kratos some votes.
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TestIcicles | Posted 10/13/2008 11:32:49 AM | message detail
If anything, I think Ocelot being stronger is going to give Tifa a better shot at victory than Ocelot.

Seph/Tifa were already pretty much determined to get X amount of the vote. Now that Ocelot is going to be eating up more % than previously thought, he's going to make it a lot tougher for Kratos to oust her.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2008 11:34:33 AM | message detail
I knew this would be spun into a Tifa plus sooner or later !!

(psst only beat Luigi by two percent imhhho)
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/13/2008 11:37:11 AM | message detail
Kratos is pretty irrelevant nowadays, whereas Ocelot has every reason to be here. I can even see Ocelot costing Kratos some votes.

GoWII isn't that old yet (heck, his entire series is recent enough to keep him fresh for a while), and he's received Chains of Olympus this year. Yes, it's a PSP game, but it's sold like 800k+. He should be solid.
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TestIcicles | Posted 10/13/2008 11:40:04 AM | message detail
I'm actually surprised it hasn't been spun into a Tifa plus sooner. Lord knows I hate that skanky ho, and would love to see her crash and burn, but I think that's the key thing to watch out for.

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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/13/2008 11:46:47 AM | message detail
So, does that mean EC is cheering for Nana to gain all the Brawl boost nobody has been getting?
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TestIcicles | Posted 10/13/2008 11:48:19 AM | message detail
Hey, I said I hated Tifa, I didn't say anything good about that freaky arctic midget.

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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/13/2008 11:48:54 AM | message detail
Yeah, but you didn't say anything bad about the freaky arctic midget either.
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Xuxon | Posted 10/13/2008 11:51:20 AM | message detail
Hmm... you know how all the noble nine have been a bit underwhelming this year? The theory was that the voterbase learned from last year that they didn't need votes in the first few rounds. I wonder if voters put Master Chief in that category. Obviously it wouldn't be a huge effect, a percent or two maybe, but I think it's a possibility. I'm pretty doubtful of him beating Sonic now, more just wondering if he can still beat Kirby and Dante at this rate.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/13/2008 11:53:03 AM | message detail
Just wait until the Kaindies wake up!

Big Boss > Kirby > Kain > GAMEFAIL believe!
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/13/2008 11:56:11 AM | message detail
Kratos is stronger then last year. Chain of Olympus is one of the best PSP games yet, and nearly sold a million copies. Its not MGS4 boost, but its a boost nonetheless.
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TestIcicles | Posted 10/13/2008 11:57:15 AM | message detail
50% book it
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/13/2008 12:05:42 PM | message detail
Liquid went from being Frog's equal to giving Luigi a scare. Surely Ocelot, who has the largest prominence in the game aside from Snake himself, has the possibility of doing the same.

Except that if anyone would have suggested that Luigi would beat Frog in 2002, that person would be considered as a joke alt. Liquid really didn't do anything impressive in his match, because we already knew that he was strong.

Liquid > Ocelot aw yeah!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 12:07:27 PM | message detail
Liquid beat Alucard, and you don't think Alucard would do do about what Liquid did in round 1? I don't understand all the people gonig crazy about Liquid boost. He did about what I expected him to do.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/13/2008 12:09:32 PM | message detail
If Zack can come out and kill Wario despite Cecil (I doubt he would have impressed with solely FF7), I imagine Kratos can get a boost from GoW:CoO -- even if it's just a small one.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
TestIcicles | Posted 10/13/2008 12:10:39 PM | message detail
Alucard: 35
Falcon: 28
Diddy: 19
Kratos A: 17

You really think Alucard is capable of getting within what, 5% of Luigi? I sure as hell don't.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 12:11:17 PM | message detail
6.5%, but maybe not this year, but past Alucards when he was stronger I think he could.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 12:13:36 PM | message detail
Liquid Snake - 35.00%
Luigi - 42.00%
Roxas - 15.00%
Sho Minamimoto - 8.00%

That was my oracle prediction for the match before it happened. As you see, I predicted 7% difference and ended up being 6.5%, so it didn't come as a surprise to me whatsoever -shrug-
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TestIcicles | Posted 10/13/2008 12:13:37 PM | message detail
So Alucard had a massive drop-off between this year and last?

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shadow8021 | Posted 10/13/2008 12:37:35 PM | message detail
More like Alucard stayed consistent and Liquid Snake rose, which seems to be a theme from all MGS characters that we've seen thus far.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 1:07:49 PM | message detail
Alucard didn't have massive drop off, but he does drop every year slightly.
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TestIcicles | Posted 10/13/2008 1:28:04 PM | message detail
So then comparing him to "past Alucards" was completely pointless and meaningless.

good job

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/13/2008 2:31:35 PM | message detail
I don't think I agree with the talks about BB/Raiden making MC/Kirby advancing the favorites now. BB beat Kirby by over 11%, and -- while MGS2/MGS3 is a debated match in itself (though I favor MGS3 in such a match) -- there's no doubt BB is far more favored from MGS3 than Raiden from MGS2. I can't comment on how they compare in MGS4, but I doubt it matters as much for them as MGS2/3 does in this. Throw in potential Solid-proxy votes, too.

Raiden is doing well against MC, though we don't know how well MC is doing. Last year suggests Raiden is now a beast while our assumptions on Kain suggest Raiden's, well, fair enough...hard to say right now. However, even if his indirect strength is based off of MC from last year, he's still not matching what BB did yesterday. The SFF between them will almost certainly go in BB's favor, too, as already mentioned; Raiden will have had to REALLY smoke BB's **** in MGS4 to compete.

Just saying, Raiden's probably not hurting BB enough here. There's a chance of it since BB won't SFF Raiden like how Solid Snake did in 2k3 obviously...but Kirby's got a huge climb ahead of him in that regard.

This is without considering MC. Whether or not he's bombing right now, he's still probably got more of a static fanbase than Kirby and is still probably stronger in this format...and I imagine BB would be beating MC right now if he was in Raiden's place.


Kirby HAS to have BB be LFF'd by Raiden pretty hard to advance, and I'm not sure how much the MGS-fanbase will side with Raiden in such a battle, Kirby/MC aside. Raiden's looking solid enough here, but head-to-head against BB could be an entirely different story.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 2:35:37 PM | message detail
Big Boss > MC

would likely be our biggest upset ever imo
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/13/2008 2:36:17 PM | message detail
I don't think we should give Big Boss to much credit for his match. The poll was basicly Snake VS an LFF'D Kirby. Let say we get a picture of old Big Boss in round 2, then we know he won't advance.

Which is why I love the sprite round, because there's no way Big Boss advances from that.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/13/2008 2:38:18 PM | message detail
Kirby HAS to have BB be LFF'd by Raiden pretty hard to advance,

Does he? After this performance, I wouldn't be shocked to see Big Boss and Kirby advance over Master Chief. Much as I'd like to, I just can't fathom Kain being terribly far above the fodder line.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/13/2008 2:40:24 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2904&num=4

MC got 43% in that fourpack.

Raiden > Liquid and Kain > Yuna confirmed.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 2:46:41 PM | message detail
Kain isn't stronger then Yuna... this is just Chief back down to Earth levels. I'm worried about Raiden being this close and losing lots of updates to a 2D Final fantasy character, after seeing guys like cecil, terra, celes, etc...
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Biolizard28 | Posted 10/13/2008 2:59:22 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-27.jpg

Riku and Leon look great. My Siegfried. (Which I forgot to post and just entered this morning >_>) lol macmillan
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 3:00:17 PM | message detail
woot seaweed vote
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/13/2008 3:22:44 PM | message detail
Don't be shocked if MacMillan surprises here, and even has an early lead on these guys. IF 'doof is any indication, then 4chan will do what is needed to get their guys votes.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/13/2008 3:23:59 PM | message detail
MacMillan reminds me of Cousin It. Leon/MacMillan to split votesm allowing Siegfried to advance confirmed.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/13/2008 3:24:33 PM | message detail
Leon vs. Riku: who gets the modeling contract?
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